0 an1 n1 o1 c1 Mar19 - World Bank€¦ · 3 March 2019-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5 2012 2013...

10
Global Monthly March 2019 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Percent of world bonds outstanding

Transcript of 0 an1 n1 o1 c1 Mar19 - World Bank€¦ · 3 March 2019-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5 2012 2013...

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Global Monthly March 2019

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-

14Ju

n-14

Nov

-14

Apr-1

5Se

p-15

Feb-

16Ju

l-16

Dec

-16

May

-17

Oct

-17

Mar

-18

Aug-

18D

ec-1

8M

ar-1

9

Percent of world bonds outstanding

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2

March 2019

01234567

18Q

118

Q2

18Q

318

Q4

Jan-

19

18Q

118

Q2

18Q

318

Q4

Jan-

19

18Q

118

Q2

18Q

318

Q4

Jan-

19

World Advancedeconomies

EMDEs

GDPIndustrial production

Percent, year-on-year

-60-40-20020406080

1.0

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.6

3.0

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Oil price change (RHS)Inflation

Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year

49505152535455

-202468

10

Jan-

16

Jun-

16

Nov

-16

Apr-1

7

Sep-

17

Feb-

18

Jul-1

8

Nov

-18

Feb-

19

Goods tradeContainer shippingNew export orders (RHS)

Percent, year-on-year Index, 50+=expansion

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March 2019

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

-0.5

0.5

1.5

2.5

3.5

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Spread (RHS)United StatesGermany

Percent Basis points

280

320

360

400

440

100

110

120

130

140

150

Jan-

17M

ar-1

7M

ay-1

7Ju

l-17

Sep-

17N

ov-1

7Ja

n-18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-1

8Se

p-18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19M

ar-1

9

Stock index Bond spreads (RHS)Index, 100=January 3, 2017 Basis points

0

100

200

300

400

500

Jan

Feb

Mar Ap

rM

ay Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

2015 2016 20172018 2019

US$, billions

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March 2019

95

100

105

110

45

50

55

60

65

70

Jan-

19

Feb-

19

Mar

-19

Crude oil averageBase metals index (RHS)Agriculture index (RHS)

US$/bbl, nominal Index, 100=January 1, 2019

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

-1

0

1

2

3

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

Apr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8O

ct-1

8

Feb-

19

Real wagesNominal wages (RHS)

Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year

40

45

50

55

60

65

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

Jan-

15

Jun-

15

Nov

-15

Apr-1

6

Sep-

16

Feb-

17

Jul-1

7

Dec

-17

May

-18

Oct

-18

Mar

-19

Industrial productionManufacturing PMI (RHS)

Index, 50+=expansionPercent, year-on-year

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March 2019

456789101112

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

Jan-

16Ap

r-16

Jul-1

6O

ct-1

6Ja

n-17

Apr-1

7Ju

l-17

Oct

-17

Jan-

18Ap

r-18

Jul-1

8O

ct-1

8

Feb-

19

LendingInvestment (RHS)

Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year

4748495051525354

Jan-

15M

ay-1

5Se

p-15

Jan-

16M

ay-1

6Se

p-16

Jan-

17M

ay-1

7Se

p-17

Jan-

18M

ay-1

8Se

p-18

Feb-

19

Commodity exportersCommodity importers

Index, 50+=expansion, 3-month moving average

-10

-5

0

5

10

-8

-4

0

4

8

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

Jan-

19

2018

Q1

2018

Q2

2018

Q3

2018

Q4

Jan-

19

Turkey Excluding Turkeyand China

GDPIndustrial production (RHS)

Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year

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March 2019

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Formal firms Informal firms

U.S. dollars per worker, thousands

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Manager withhigher education

Single-employeefirm

Percent

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

1year

10years

1empl.

10empl.

Cap.city

Other 1year

10years

Firm age Firm size Firmlocation

Managerexperience

Log productivity differential

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March 2019

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Maximum informalcompetition

Average informalcompetition

Log productivity differential

0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

Highest GDP percapita

Lowest GDP percapita

Log productivity differential

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

Control ofcorruption

Ease of DoingBusiness

BusinessFreedom

Log productivity differential Highest quartileLowest quartile

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March 2019

(Percent change, y/y)

(Percent change y/y)

Recent releases: February 28, 2018 - March 27, 2019 Upcoming releases: March 28, 2019 - April 27, 2019 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Brazil 2/28/19 GDP Q4 1.1 % 1.3 % Japan 3/28/19 IP FEB 0.3 % France 2/28/19 GDP Q4 0.9% 1.3% South Korea 3/28/19 IP FEB 0.1 % India 2/28/19 GDP Q4 6.6 % 7.0% Italy 3/29/19 CPI MAR 1.0 % Indonesia 2/28/19 CPI FEB 2.6 % 2.8 % Indonesia 4/1/19 CPI MAR 2.6 %

United States 2/28/19 GDP Q4 3.1 % 3.0 % Brazil 4/2/19 IP FEB -2.6 %

Turkey 3/4/19 CPI FEB 19.7% 20.4% Turkey 4/3/19 CPI MAR 19.7%

South Korea 3/4/19 GDP Q1 3.1% 2.0% Germany 4/5/19 IP FEB -3.3 % Australia 3/5/19 GDP Q4 2.3 % 2.8 % Mexico 4/9/19 CPI MAR 3.9% Italy 3/5/19 GDP Q4 0.0 % 0.6% France 4/10/19 IP FEB 1.7 % South Africa 3/5/19 GDP Q4 1.1% 1.3% Italy 4/10/19 IP MAR -0.8 % Euro Area 3/7/19 GDP Q4 1.1 % 1.6% United Kingdom 4/10/19 IP FEB -0.9 % Japan 3/7/19 GDP Q4 0.3% 0.2% United States 4/10/19 CPI MAR 1.5 % Turkey 3/11/19 GDP Q4 -3.0% 1.8% France 4/11/19 CPI MAR 1.3 % China 3/13/19 IP JAN 5.3 % 5.2% Germany 4/11/19 CPI MAR 1.6% Mexico 3/13/19 IP JAN -0.9 % -2.5 % India 4/12/19 IP FEB 1.7 % United States 3/15/19 CPI FEB 1.5% 1.5% China 4/15/19 GDP Q1 6.4 % South Africa 3/20/19 CPI FEB 4.1 % 3.9% Canada 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.5 % United Kingdom 3/20/19 CPI FEB 1.9 % 1.8 % Euro Area 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.4% Japan 3/21/19 CPI FEB 0.2 % 0.2 % South Africa 4/17/19 CPI MAR 4.1 % Canada 3/22/19 CPI FEB 1.5 % 1.4 % United Kingdom 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.9 % France 3/26/19 GDP Q4 1.0% 1.4% Australia 4/23/19 CPI Q1 1.8 %

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March 2019

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)

3.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.8 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.2 -0.1 2.9 1.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 1.0 5.3 5.0 6.8 3.0 3.5 2.8 6.3 5.2 6.2 5.2 4.6 5.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.6 5.7 -1.3 4.1 1.0 3.3 3.2 5.0 1.6 0.6 3.0 2.3 1.4 3.6 2.0 1.5 0.9 6.2 5.7 7.0 4.2 3.4 3.3 7.2 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.1 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.8 3.8 6.3 6.0 8.9 4.6 3.5 5.5 7.1 5.6 7.0 6.6 5.0 5.9 5.7 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.5 9.0 -1.9 6.7 6.7 6.1 3.6 7.1 5.5 -1.2 5.0 2.9 2.2 7.2 4.9 3.1 3.4 6.0 4.5 4.8 2.8 2.3 -3.5 7.1 5.7 5.9 5.6 4.7 5.8 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.8 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.3 -2.0 1.0 -4.8 2.1 2.8 4.5 -1.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.5 -0.7 -2.6 -2.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

4.6 5.7 5.4 -1.8 9.1 5.7 7.2 5.5 5.4 4.5 6.2 7.8 2.7 7.4 8.6 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.1 1.3 -8.3 0.7 9.1 6.0 0.7 0.8 -1.6 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.9

2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 3.2 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.9 3.8 3.9 3.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.7 3.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.8

10.4 9.4 25.0 -4.1 -1.8 -2.6 17.5 9.9 16.7 10.8 10.1 11.9 6.8 4.5 10.8 2.4 -2.4 -0.5 9.7 8.2 21.0 -3.6 -4.9 -2.2 13.0 11.9 17.2 9.5 9.3 10.1 4.9 1.3 9.0 0.9 -3.4 -3.1 11.8 11.7 32.7 -4.8 4.1 -3.4 25.9 6.4 16.0 13.2 11.5 15.1 10.3 10.5 14.2 5.3 -0.6 4.1 17.5 15.0 31.1 -0.9 10.6 4.1 15.4 12.9 23.7 15.6 16.3 23.0 13.7 9.8 18.8 9.3 4.1 -2.4 9.6 10.4 33.4 -6.4 1.6 -6.2 30.3 3.8 12.9 12.2 9.5 12.0 8.9 10.8 12.4 3.7 -2.4 6.6 10.0 10.3 36.8 -6.8 2.0 -9.8 33.4 1.2 12.1 11.7 10.5 12.4 8.9 11.0 13.6 3.0 -3.7 6.4 16.6 16.6 36.7 -0.3 2.9 5.8 20.9 14.9 27.6 19.8 13.9 23.8 13.6 11.1 16.6 11.1 3.8 -3.4 11.9 9.3 21.3 -6.1 9.5 6.2 12.0 10.7 13.6 7.4 6.6 12.3 9.6 6.3 10.6 7.9 3.5 3.6

- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5.6 10.8 5.9 5.0 21.8 13.7 10.0 5.4 9.2 20.0 4.6 14.0 3.3 22.7 18.4 6.5 9.8 11.9 14.5 - 26.4 -4.9 14.4 - 15.7 10.4 18.1 14.1 16.2 16.8 12.7 9.9 - - - -

12.5 11.8 20.3 3.0 2.4 0.4 22.2 8.3 25.0 4.1 10.3 12.8 2.3 26.7 14.5 3.1 1.5 -6.0 9.7 9.7 19.3 -0.8 -0.9 3.7 14.3 10.1 17.0 9.8 9.2 13.3 7.7 4.7 12.4 3.1 -0.1 -1.6 13.8 12.7 20.6 4.6 3.9 -1.0 25.7 7.5 28.6 1.9 10.8 12.6 0.0 37.7 15.4 3.1 2.2 -6.8 13.0 12.7 14.6 8.8 3.7 3.6 30.6 6.0 32.0 -1.8 10.5 11.1 -3.8 48.2 15.7 3.1 4.3 - 16.5 12.5 43.0 -8.0 4.5 -15.0 11.0 12.2 18.0 17.0 11.9 18.3 12.4 9.1 14.5 3.2 -5.4 -1.8 17.5 14.7 57.2 -11.0 11.2 -18.9 8.9 12.0 21.9 20.9 11.7 21.3 16.7 11.9 19.3 4.7 -5.5 -0.8 18.6 7.9 28.2 -15.1 -17.6 -1.3 22.1 17.8 19.8 9.9 7.9 6.8 -0.7 -1.4 1.9 -2.0 -8.6 -8.4 6.0 12.3 23.0 7.0 10.5 0.0 14.6 4.4 21.7 12.7 9.8 23.3 13.7 6.3 16.3 11.8 1.6 6.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

22.7 13.3 22.6 11.1 10.0 -14.6 12.2 7.9 5.0 15.9 20.7 24.8 20.9 12.5 16.7 3.6 -0.2 -2.2 4.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

7.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 10.0 0.5 1.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.3 0.9 5.3 -1.1 1.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 3.6 - 2.0 -0.5 -1.0 - -0.3 1.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.5 - - 6.1 -2.1 1.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 5.6 -2.1 0.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 10.3 3.9 4.3 -3.3 -0.9 4.0 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 2.2 -1.0 1.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -

11.8 -4.8 2.5 -3.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6 0.9 10.4 - 8.4 1.0 -6.3 - 0.9 5.7 1.0 2.1 -1.9 -0.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 0.3 - -

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

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March 2019

(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)

Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 1.78 1.40 1.67 1.88 2.16 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38 2.38 2.38 ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 2.31 1.93 2.34 2.34 2.63 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78 2.68 2.60 EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.91 2.76 2.92 2.92 3.03 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.68 2.41 German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.39 0.57 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.02 -0.12 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 360 309 351 378 402 319 322 353 377 366 383 386 377 405 423 402 373 376 Asia 164 183 157 185 189 202 168 171 186 197 193 185 189 190 204 211 199 185 183 Europe 243 281 221 275 313 316 234 246 277 301 291 329 318 299 316 334 319 303 332 Latin America & Caribbean 429 471 418 455 487 523 423 422 459 486 471 493 498 492 528 549 519 493 489 Middle East 385 439 367 429 464 497 374 385 432 472 451 464 478 453 497 541 562 400 362 Africa 376 407 320 385 440 481 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 445 485 515 489 444 454 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 508 456 500 505 524 456 500 510 509 505 520 524 524 484 491 456 491 503 504 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 1884 2042 2089 2184 1884 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 2041 1884 2028 2086 2087 United States (S&P 500) 2668 2507 2590 2718 2923 2507 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2760 2507 2702 2798 2807 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1368 1493 1533 1548 1368 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1450 1368 1452 1507 1516 Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 20019 21203 22305 24021 20019 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 22351 20019 20773 21580 21428

Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 1139 966 1167 1070 1048 966 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 995 966 1050 1051 1048

EM Asia 577 485 589 552 537 485 589 587 582 552 553 546 537 476 503 485 521 529 531 EM Europe 341 292 350 312 313 292 350 335 316 312 319 294 313 293 301 292 325 318 322 EM Europe & Middle East 275 246 280 253 259 246 280 271 257 253 263 246 259 247 252 246 270 263 265 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2566 3008 2477 2577 2566 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2600 2566 2948 2821 2732

Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 Japan 112.11 110.34 107.94 109.16 111.52 112.74 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 108.96 110.43 110.05 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 3.19 3.65 3.24 3.61 3.95 3.81 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.74 3.72 3.87 China 6.76 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.81 6.92 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.79 6.74 6.71 Egypt 17.85 17.82 17.68 17.80 17.90 17.92 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.86 17.58 17.30 India 65.11 68.41 64.40 66.99 70.19 72.04 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 70.78 71.24 68.94 Russia 58.31 62.84 56.96 62.03 65.64 66.74 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.79 65.80 64.07 South Africa 13.31 13.25 11.93 12.65 14.09 14.31 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.85 13.83 14.29

Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 119.6 118.4 114.1 116.6 120.4 122.5 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.7 123.0 122.8 120.9 120.8 120.8

68 87 82 89 93 84 81 86 92 91 92 90 96 97 82 73 74 77 77 84 85 88 89 83 81 88 90 90 88 84 83 81 82 81 81 81 83 83 87 87 89 91 85 83 90 92 92 89 86 85 83 83 82 83 84 84 84 79 84 88 88 80 79 85 87 88 88 81 79 79 81 79 77 77 82 79

53 68 64 71 73 64 64 69 73 72 73 71 75 77 62 54 56 61 64 1258 1269 1329 1307 1213 1229 1325 1335 1303 1282 1238 1202 1198 1215 1221 1250 1292 1320 1320 1152 1346 1171 1256 1602 1356 1149 1126 1289 1352 1649 1710 1447 1545 1201 1322 1068 630 689