0 an1 n1 o1 c1 Mar19 - World Bank€¦ · 3 March 2019-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5 2012 2013...
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Global Monthly March 2019 • • • • • • • • • 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-14 Jun-14 Nov-14 Apr-15 Sep-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Dec-16 May-17 Oct-17 Mar-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Percent of world bonds outstanding
Transcript of 0 an1 n1 o1 c1 Mar19 - World Bank€¦ · 3 March 2019-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5-0.5 0.5 5 2.5 5 2012 2013...
Global Monthly March 2019
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0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Jan-
14Ju
n-14
Nov
-14
Apr-1
5Se
p-15
Feb-
16Ju
l-16
Dec
-16
May
-17
Oct
-17
Mar
-18
Aug-
18D
ec-1
8M
ar-1
9
Percent of world bonds outstanding
2
March 2019
01234567
18Q
118
Q2
18Q
318
Q4
Jan-
19
18Q
118
Q2
18Q
318
Q4
Jan-
19
18Q
118
Q2
18Q
318
Q4
Jan-
19
World Advancedeconomies
EMDEs
GDPIndustrial production
Percent, year-on-year
-60-40-20020406080
1.0
1.4
1.8
2.2
2.6
3.0
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
Oil price change (RHS)Inflation
Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year
49505152535455
-202468
10
Jan-
16
Jun-
16
Nov
-16
Apr-1
7
Sep-
17
Feb-
18
Jul-1
8
Nov
-18
Feb-
19
Goods tradeContainer shippingNew export orders (RHS)
Percent, year-on-year Index, 50+=expansion
3
March 2019
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
-0.5
0.5
1.5
2.5
3.5
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
Spread (RHS)United StatesGermany
Percent Basis points
280
320
360
400
440
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-
17M
ar-1
7M
ay-1
7Ju
l-17
Sep-
17N
ov-1
7Ja
n-18
Mar
-18
May
-18
Jul-1
8Se
p-18
Nov
-18
Jan-
19M
ar-1
9
Stock index Bond spreads (RHS)Index, 100=January 3, 2017 Basis points
0
100
200
300
400
500
Jan
Feb
Mar Ap
rM
ay Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
2015 2016 20172018 2019
US$, billions
4
March 2019
95
100
105
110
45
50
55
60
65
70
Jan-
19
Feb-
19
Mar
-19
Crude oil averageBase metals index (RHS)Agriculture index (RHS)
US$/bbl, nominal Index, 100=January 1, 2019
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
-1
0
1
2
3
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-17
Apr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8O
ct-1
8
Feb-
19
Real wagesNominal wages (RHS)
Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year
40
45
50
55
60
65
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
Jan-
15
Jun-
15
Nov
-15
Apr-1
6
Sep-
16
Feb-
17
Jul-1
7
Dec
-17
May
-18
Oct
-18
Mar
-19
Industrial productionManufacturing PMI (RHS)
Index, 50+=expansionPercent, year-on-year
5
March 2019
456789101112
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
Jan-
16Ap
r-16
Jul-1
6O
ct-1
6Ja
n-17
Apr-1
7Ju
l-17
Oct
-17
Jan-
18Ap
r-18
Jul-1
8O
ct-1
8
Feb-
19
LendingInvestment (RHS)
Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year
4748495051525354
Jan-
15M
ay-1
5Se
p-15
Jan-
16M
ay-1
6Se
p-16
Jan-
17M
ay-1
7Se
p-17
Jan-
18M
ay-1
8Se
p-18
Feb-
19
Commodity exportersCommodity importers
Index, 50+=expansion, 3-month moving average
-10
-5
0
5
10
-8
-4
0
4
8
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
Jan-
19
2018
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
Jan-
19
Turkey Excluding Turkeyand China
GDPIndustrial production (RHS)
Percent, year-on-year Percent, year-on-year
6
March 2019
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Formal firms Informal firms
U.S. dollars per worker, thousands
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Manager withhigher education
Single-employeefirm
Percent
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1year
10years
1empl.
10empl.
Cap.city
Other 1year
10years
Firm age Firm size Firmlocation
Managerexperience
Log productivity differential
7
March 2019
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Maximum informalcompetition
Average informalcompetition
Log productivity differential
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Highest GDP percapita
Lowest GDP percapita
Log productivity differential
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
Control ofcorruption
Ease of DoingBusiness
BusinessFreedom
Log productivity differential Highest quartileLowest quartile
8
March 2019
(Percent change, y/y)
(Percent change y/y)
Recent releases: February 28, 2018 - March 27, 2019 Upcoming releases: March 28, 2019 - April 27, 2019 Country Date Indicator Period Actual Forecast Previous Country Date Indicator Period Previous Brazil 2/28/19 GDP Q4 1.1 % 1.3 % Japan 3/28/19 IP FEB 0.3 % France 2/28/19 GDP Q4 0.9% 1.3% South Korea 3/28/19 IP FEB 0.1 % India 2/28/19 GDP Q4 6.6 % 7.0% Italy 3/29/19 CPI MAR 1.0 % Indonesia 2/28/19 CPI FEB 2.6 % 2.8 % Indonesia 4/1/19 CPI MAR 2.6 %
United States 2/28/19 GDP Q4 3.1 % 3.0 % Brazil 4/2/19 IP FEB -2.6 %
Turkey 3/4/19 CPI FEB 19.7% 20.4% Turkey 4/3/19 CPI MAR 19.7%
South Korea 3/4/19 GDP Q1 3.1% 2.0% Germany 4/5/19 IP FEB -3.3 % Australia 3/5/19 GDP Q4 2.3 % 2.8 % Mexico 4/9/19 CPI MAR 3.9% Italy 3/5/19 GDP Q4 0.0 % 0.6% France 4/10/19 IP FEB 1.7 % South Africa 3/5/19 GDP Q4 1.1% 1.3% Italy 4/10/19 IP MAR -0.8 % Euro Area 3/7/19 GDP Q4 1.1 % 1.6% United Kingdom 4/10/19 IP FEB -0.9 % Japan 3/7/19 GDP Q4 0.3% 0.2% United States 4/10/19 CPI MAR 1.5 % Turkey 3/11/19 GDP Q4 -3.0% 1.8% France 4/11/19 CPI MAR 1.3 % China 3/13/19 IP JAN 5.3 % 5.2% Germany 4/11/19 CPI MAR 1.6% Mexico 3/13/19 IP JAN -0.9 % -2.5 % India 4/12/19 IP FEB 1.7 % United States 3/15/19 CPI FEB 1.5% 1.5% China 4/15/19 GDP Q1 6.4 % South Africa 3/20/19 CPI FEB 4.1 % 3.9% Canada 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.5 % United Kingdom 3/20/19 CPI FEB 1.9 % 1.8 % Euro Area 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.4% Japan 3/21/19 CPI FEB 0.2 % 0.2 % South Africa 4/17/19 CPI MAR 4.1 % Canada 3/22/19 CPI FEB 1.5 % 1.4 % United Kingdom 4/17/19 CPI MAR 1.9 % France 3/26/19 GDP Q4 1.0% 1.4% Australia 4/23/19 CPI Q1 1.8 %
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March 2019
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly data on industrial production, which are percent change q/q, annualized)
3.9 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.4 1.8 4.6 4.2 4.4 3.9 3.6 3.8 3.5 3.4 3.8 2.3 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.2 -0.1 2.9 1.1 0.8 2.9 3.3 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.2 2.5 2.3 2.5 0.8 0.2 1.0 5.3 5.0 6.8 3.0 3.5 2.8 6.3 5.2 6.2 5.2 4.6 5.5 4.5 4.5 5.0 3.7 3.3 3.2 2.5 2.6 5.7 -1.3 4.1 1.0 3.3 3.2 5.0 1.6 0.6 3.0 2.3 1.4 3.6 2.0 1.5 0.9 6.2 5.7 7.0 4.2 3.4 3.3 7.2 5.8 6.6 6.3 5.8 6.2 5.1 5.4 5.4 4.2 3.8 3.8 6.3 6.0 8.9 4.6 3.5 5.5 7.1 5.6 7.0 6.6 5.0 5.9 5.7 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.5 9.0 -1.9 6.7 6.7 6.1 3.6 7.1 5.5 -1.2 5.0 2.9 2.2 7.2 4.9 3.1 3.4 6.0 4.5 4.8 2.8 2.3 -3.5 7.1 5.7 5.9 5.6 4.7 5.8 3.8 3.4 3.0 1.8 -0.1 0.4 0.8 1.0 2.3 -2.0 1.0 -4.8 2.1 2.8 4.5 -1.0 2.2 1.6 1.3 0.3 0.5 -0.7 -2.6 -2.1 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
4.6 5.7 5.4 -1.8 9.1 5.7 7.2 5.5 5.4 4.5 6.2 7.8 2.7 7.4 8.6 1.7 3.4 2.6 0.1 1.3 -8.3 0.7 9.1 6.0 0.7 0.8 -1.6 1.3 1.8 2.6 1.5 2.1 3.0 1.4 0.7 0.9
2.3 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.4 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.4 1.7 1.3 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.2 1.3 1.5 1.8 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 3.1 2.9 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.2 2.2 3.3 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.8 2.6 2.6 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.4 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.7 3.1 2.4 2.1 2.3 3.2 2.5 3.5 3.6 3.2 2.7 2.6 2.8 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.2 2.8 2.0 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.4 3.0 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.8 2.1 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.3 2.8 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.2 3.0 2.4 2.3 2.2 1.6 2.5 2.8 2.7 2.2 1.8 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 0.9 3.8 3.9 3.5 4.4 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.7 4.1 4.1 4.5 4.4 4.0 3.9 4.7 3.8 5.4 5.4 5.4 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.3 4.2 3.2 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.2 3.9 3.5 3.8
10.4 9.4 25.0 -4.1 -1.8 -2.6 17.5 9.9 16.7 10.8 10.1 11.9 6.8 4.5 10.8 2.4 -2.4 -0.5 9.7 8.2 21.0 -3.6 -4.9 -2.2 13.0 11.9 17.2 9.5 9.3 10.1 4.9 1.3 9.0 0.9 -3.4 -3.1 11.8 11.7 32.7 -4.8 4.1 -3.4 25.9 6.4 16.0 13.2 11.5 15.1 10.3 10.5 14.2 5.3 -0.6 4.1 17.5 15.0 31.1 -0.9 10.6 4.1 15.4 12.9 23.7 15.6 16.3 23.0 13.7 9.8 18.8 9.3 4.1 -2.4 9.6 10.4 33.4 -6.4 1.6 -6.2 30.3 3.8 12.9 12.2 9.5 12.0 8.9 10.8 12.4 3.7 -2.4 6.6 10.0 10.3 36.8 -6.8 2.0 -9.8 33.4 1.2 12.1 11.7 10.5 12.4 8.9 11.0 13.6 3.0 -3.7 6.4 16.6 16.6 36.7 -0.3 2.9 5.8 20.9 14.9 27.6 19.8 13.9 23.8 13.6 11.1 16.6 11.1 3.8 -3.4 11.9 9.3 21.3 -6.1 9.5 6.2 12.0 10.7 13.6 7.4 6.6 12.3 9.6 6.3 10.6 7.9 3.5 3.6
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 5.6 10.8 5.9 5.0 21.8 13.7 10.0 5.4 9.2 20.0 4.6 14.0 3.3 22.7 18.4 6.5 9.8 11.9 14.5 - 26.4 -4.9 14.4 - 15.7 10.4 18.1 14.1 16.2 16.8 12.7 9.9 - - - -
12.5 11.8 20.3 3.0 2.4 0.4 22.2 8.3 25.0 4.1 10.3 12.8 2.3 26.7 14.5 3.1 1.5 -6.0 9.7 9.7 19.3 -0.8 -0.9 3.7 14.3 10.1 17.0 9.8 9.2 13.3 7.7 4.7 12.4 3.1 -0.1 -1.6 13.8 12.7 20.6 4.6 3.9 -1.0 25.7 7.5 28.6 1.9 10.8 12.6 0.0 37.7 15.4 3.1 2.2 -6.8 13.0 12.7 14.6 8.8 3.7 3.6 30.6 6.0 32.0 -1.8 10.5 11.1 -3.8 48.2 15.7 3.1 4.3 - 16.5 12.5 43.0 -8.0 4.5 -15.0 11.0 12.2 18.0 17.0 11.9 18.3 12.4 9.1 14.5 3.2 -5.4 -1.8 17.5 14.7 57.2 -11.0 11.2 -18.9 8.9 12.0 21.9 20.9 11.7 21.3 16.7 11.9 19.3 4.7 -5.5 -0.8 18.6 7.9 28.2 -15.1 -17.6 -1.3 22.1 17.8 19.8 9.9 7.9 6.8 -0.7 -1.4 1.9 -2.0 -8.6 -8.4 6.0 12.3 23.0 7.0 10.5 0.0 14.6 4.4 21.7 12.7 9.8 23.3 13.7 6.3 16.3 11.8 1.6 6.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
22.7 13.3 22.6 11.1 10.0 -14.6 12.2 7.9 5.0 15.9 20.7 24.8 20.9 12.5 16.7 3.6 -0.2 -2.2 4.5 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
7.2 -0.5 1.4 -1.2 -0.6 0.1 -0.5 0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.5 -0.8 0.4 0.4 0.7 10.0 0.5 1.3 -0.8 0.0 0.0 -0.5 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.4 -0.1 0.1 0.0 -0.7 0.4 0.3 0.9 5.3 -1.1 1.4 -1.5 -1.1 0.2 -0.5 0.5 -0.2 -0.7 -0.6 0.0 -0.3 -0.9 -0.9 0.5 0.6 0.5 3.6 - 2.0 -0.5 -1.0 - -0.3 1.1 0.8 -0.4 -0.8 -0.2 0.2 -1.0 -0.3 0.5 - - 6.1 -2.1 1.1 -2.0 -1.1 0.0 -0.6 0.3 -0.6 -0.8 -0.6 0.2 -0.5 -0.8 -1.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 5.6 -2.1 0.6 -1.4 -1.0 -0.1 -0.8 0.4 -0.5 -0.5 -0.3 0.1 -0.2 -0.8 -1.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 10.3 3.9 4.3 -3.3 -0.9 4.0 0.2 0.6 -0.5 -1.2 -1.6 0.9 -1.1 -0.8 -0.2 1.6 2.6 0.7 2.2 -1.0 1.6 -1.9 -1.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.3 -0.2 -1.2 -0.1 0.5 -0.2 0.9 - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - -
11.8 -4.8 2.5 -3.8 -2.1 -1.3 -0.2 0.3 -0.2 -2.4 -1.2 -0.7 -0.7 -0.8 -1.9 -0.1 0.6 0.9 10.4 - 8.4 1.0 -6.3 - 0.9 5.7 1.0 2.1 -1.9 -0.2 -3.3 -3.0 -3.0 0.3 - -
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
10
March 2019
(Percent change y/y, except quarterly trade data, which are percent change q/q, annualized, and international reserves data, which are percent change over the previous period)
Interest rates and LIBOR (percent) U.S. Fed Funds Effective 0.97 1.78 1.40 1.67 1.88 2.16 1.45 1.63 1.63 1.77 1.88 1.88 1.90 2.13 2.13 2.22 2.38 2.38 2.38 ECB repo 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 US$ LIBOR 3-months 1.26 2.31 1.93 2.34 2.34 2.63 2.18 2.35 2.34 2.33 2.34 2.32 2.35 2.46 2.65 2.79 2.78 2.68 2.60 EURIBOR 3-months -0.33 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.33 -0.33 -0.33 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.32 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 -0.31 US 10-yr Treasury yield 2.33 2.91 2.76 2.92 2.92 3.03 2.84 2.87 2.97 2.91 2.89 2.89 3.00 3.16 3.12 2.83 2.71 2.68 2.41 German Bund, 10 yr 0.37 0.39 0.57 0.42 0.28 0.29 0.54 0.48 0.46 0.33 0.25 0.26 0.35 0.37 0.32 0.19 0.12 0.02 -0.12 Spreads (basis points) JP Morgan Emerging Markets 325 360 309 351 378 402 319 322 353 377 366 383 386 377 405 423 402 373 376 Asia 164 183 157 185 189 202 168 171 186 197 193 185 189 190 204 211 199 185 183 Europe 243 281 221 275 313 316 234 246 277 301 291 329 318 299 316 334 319 303 332 Latin America & Caribbean 429 471 418 455 487 523 423 422 459 486 471 493 498 492 528 549 519 493 489 Middle East 385 439 367 429 464 497 374 385 432 472 451 464 478 453 497 541 562 400 362 Africa 376 407 320 385 440 481 337 342 379 436 420 445 455 445 485 515 489 444 454 Stock Indices (end of period) Global (MSCI) 508 456 500 505 524 456 500 510 509 505 520 524 524 484 491 456 491 503 504 Advanced Economies ($ Index) 2086 1884 2042 2089 2184 1884 2042 2087 2093 2089 2153 2179 2184 2019 2041 1884 2028 2086 2087 United States (S&P 500) 2668 2507 2590 2718 2923 2507 2590 2648 2729 2718 2816 2902 2923 2712 2760 2507 2702 2798 2807 Europe (S&P Euro 350) 1558 1368 1493 1533 1548 1368 1493 1556 1545 1533 1581 1547 1548 1454 1450 1368 1452 1507 1516 Japan (Nikkei 225) 22530 20019 21203 22305 24021 20019 21203 22488 22095 22305 22554 22788 24021 21920 22351 20019 20773 21580 21428
Emerging Market and Developing Economies (MSCI) 1139 966 1167 1070 1048 966 1167 1164 1121 1070 1087 1055 1048 954 995 966 1050 1051 1048
EM Asia 577 485 589 552 537 485 589 587 582 552 553 546 537 476 503 485 521 529 531 EM Europe 341 292 350 312 313 292 350 335 316 312 319 294 313 293 301 292 325 318 322 EM Europe & Middle East 275 246 280 253 259 246 280 271 257 253 263 246 259 247 252 246 270 263 265 EM Latin America & Caribbean 2811 2566 3008 2477 2577 2566 3008 2988 2561 2477 2702 2466 2577 2684 2600 2566 2948 2821 2732
Exchange Rates (LCU / USD) Advanced Economies Euro Area 0.89 0.85 0.81 0.84 0.86 0.88 0.81 0.81 0.85 0.86 0.86 0.87 0.86 0.87 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.88 Japan 112.11 110.34 107.94 109.16 111.52 112.74 106.02 107.62 109.72 110.13 111.45 111.03 112.09 112.76 113.40 112.06 108.96 110.43 110.05 Emerging and Developing Economies Brazil 3.19 3.65 3.24 3.61 3.95 3.81 3.28 3.41 3.64 3.79 3.82 3.93 4.10 3.76 3.80 3.89 3.74 3.72 3.87 China 6.76 6.61 6.35 6.38 6.81 6.92 6.32 6.30 6.37 6.47 6.72 6.85 6.86 6.93 6.94 6.88 6.79 6.74 6.71 Egypt 17.85 17.82 17.68 17.80 17.90 17.92 17.63 17.68 17.83 17.88 17.90 17.88 17.92 17.92 17.93 17.93 17.86 17.58 17.30 India 65.11 68.41 64.40 66.99 70.19 72.04 65.06 65.69 67.49 67.79 68.74 69.62 72.22 73.59 71.83 70.71 70.78 71.24 68.94 Russia 58.31 62.84 56.96 62.03 65.64 66.74 57.15 61.01 62.28 62.81 62.83 66.48 67.60 65.86 66.69 67.66 66.79 65.80 64.07 South Africa 13.31 13.25 11.93 12.65 14.09 14.31 11.84 12.10 12.52 13.33 13.39 14.13 14.75 14.54 14.10 14.31 13.85 13.83 14.29
Memo: U.S. nominal effective rate (index) 119.6 118.4 114.1 116.6 120.4 122.5 113.9 113.9 117.0 118.9 119.6 120.6 120.9 121.7 123.0 122.8 120.9 120.8 120.8
68 87 82 89 93 84 81 86 92 91 92 90 96 97 82 73 74 77 77 84 85 88 89 83 81 88 90 90 88 84 83 81 82 81 81 81 83 83 87 87 89 91 85 83 90 92 92 89 86 85 83 83 82 83 84 84 84 79 84 88 88 80 79 85 87 88 88 81 79 79 81 79 77 77 82 79
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