THE PARADIGM OF SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

andTHE CHANGING ROLE OF THE

TECHNICAL SPECIALIST

Roland CliftDirector, Centre for Environmental Strategy

University of SurreyGUILDFORD, Surrey, GU2 7XH

E

E E

SUN SUN

WASTE

HUMANSOCIETY

AGRICULTURE INDUSTRY

DISPERSEDEMISSIONS

NON-RENEWABLE RESOURCES

EE

MIS

SIO

NS

TO

AIR

AN

D W

AT

ER

FOODetc.

GOODS&

SERVICES

THE HUMAN ECONOMY

THREE DIMENSIONS OF SUSTAINABILITY

ECO-CENTRICCONCERNS

SOCIO-CENTRICCONCERNS

TECHNO-CENTRICCONCERNS

Natural resources and ecological

capacity

Techno-economic systems

Human capital and social expectations

HOW DID WE GET HERE?

DECISIONS which failed to recognise:

- The limits to the global stock of non-renewable resources;

- The limits to the planet’s “carrying capacity”;

- The rights of others, including future generations

Not an exclusive list…

A TAXONOMY OF DECISIONS

Decisions

Decisions with agreed criteriaDecisions without

agreed criteria

With prior articulation of preferences

Without prior articulation of preferences

THE NEW PARADIGM

DECISIONS involving an extended peer community

SPECIALISTS who contribute to deliberative decision processes but are not prescriptive

- “HONEST BROKERS”

POST-NORMAL SCIENCE(after Ravetz)

ARTICULATION OF PEOPLE’S VALUES

SYNTHESIS

review

formulate objectives

define and frame

recognise problem

scientific assessment

implementation analysis

economic appraisal

technological options

risk assessment

THE RCEP MODEL OF DELIBERATIVE DECISION PROCESSES

DECISION

AN EXAMPLE: UK POLICY ON ENERGY AND CLIMATE CHANGE

ROYAL COMMISSION ON ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION

22ND REPORT: “ENERGY – THE CHANGING CLIMATE” (2000)

“…the world is now faced with a radical challenge of a totally new kind which requires an urgent response…

By the time the effects of human activities on the global climate are clear and unambiguous it wouldbe too late to take preventive measures.”

Recommended ensuring that concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere does not exceed 550 ppmv, twice the pre-industrial level.

A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT APPROACH:

“… an effective, enduring and equitable climate protocol will eventually require emission quotasto be allocated to nations on a simple and equalper capita basis… nations’ emission quotas(should) follow a contraction and convergencetrajectory.”

“…UK carbon dioxide emissions must be reduced by almost 60% from their current level by mid-century.”

Ecology and (Macro-)Thermodynamics

Technology and(Micro-) Economics[Including "micro-"thermodynamics]

Social Expectations[Including macro-

economics]

Enviro-centricConcerns

Techno-centricConcerns

Socio-centricConcerns

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT

Three “legs” to the argument, corresponding tothe three components of sustainable development:

1. Enviro-centric: limit on carbon dioxideconcentration in the atmosphere;

2. Socio-centric: the “contract and converge”principle;

3. Techno-centric: the target is technologicallyand economically feasible.

KEY DISCIPLINARY INPUTS

GEOPHYSICS – effects of change inatmospheric composition

PHILOSOPHY – ethical basis for planning within the geophysical constraints

ENGINEERING – technical and economic feasibility of actions

IS THIS TECHNOLOGICALLY FEASIBLE?

• Demand-side reductions:e.g. improved building performance;modal shifts in transport;lesser improvements in manufacturing.

- Would be encouraged by carbon levy…• Supply-side changes:

- renewable energy sources;- electrical storage; grid stability;- carbon dioxide sequestration;- nuclear or fossil electrical generation;- different transport fuels and drives.

Estimated cost of 60% reduction in UK = 2% of GDP

AND DON’T FORGET….

Thermodynamics represents one of the few immutable

truths!