© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved POWEREPC INFRASTRUCTURE SOLAR RESOURCES Fuel Supply Issues: An...
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Transcript of © LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved POWEREPC INFRASTRUCTURE SOLAR RESOURCES Fuel Supply Issues: An...
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
POWEREPC INFRASTRUCTURESOLAR RESOURCES
Fuel Supply Issues: An overview
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
– Significance of Coal as Primary Energy Source
– Demand Supply Scenario of Coal
– Policy Snapshots
– Way Forward
Contents
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
As on March 2010
Coal the main stay of energy
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Source : BP Energy statistics 2010
* Conservative estimate
Proved Reserve of Oil-Gas-Coal Position of INDIA as against WORLD
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India having just 0.4% of world’s known oil and 0.6% of natural gas resources but coal reserves is about 7%.
At the present production rate oil and gas is to last for about 22 and 28 years respectively .
India currently mines about 540 mn tones of coal per year and looks forward an ambitious target of reaching 1 bn tone mark by 2020 if the demand has to be met.
The Government of India estimates India has total coal reserves of close to 100 bn tonnes, with total resources exceeding 250 bn
Coal-remains as the main stay of energy in India
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However, conservative estimates for - recoverable coal reserves for India are about 60 bn tones
At the present rate of production – proven coal reserve to sustain over 100 years in India
India is the 3rd largest coal producing country after China and USA.
Coal will continue to play a pivotal role in Indian Energy Scenario for the foreseeable future.
Coal-remains as the main stay of energy in India (Cont..)
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Sl. No.
Coalfield Company
1. SINGRAULI NCL
2.KARANPURA & BOKARO
CCL
3. JHARIA BCCL
4. ASSAM & MEGHALAYA NEC
5. RANIGANJ ECL
6. IB & TALCHER MCL
7. CENTRAL INDIA SECL
8. PENCH & KANHAN WCL
9. CHANDA & WARDHA WCL
10. GODAVARI VELLEY SCCL
11. LIGNITE NLC
12.LIGNITE, GUJRAT & RAJASTHAN
THE MAJOR COALFIELDS OF INDIA
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COAL RESERVES IN INDIA STATE-WISE
A.P. 7%Chhattisgarh
44 Bill T (16%)
Jharkhand 77 Billion T (29%)
M.P. 21 Bill T (8%)
Orissa 65 Bill T (24%)
West Bengal 28 Bill T (11%)
Others 5%
Coal Reserves in India - state-wise (Billion Tons)
Andhra PradheshChattisgarhJharkhandMadhya PradheshOrissaWest BengalOthers
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State Geological Resources of Coal
Proved Indicated
Inferred Total
Andhra Pradesh 9194 6748 2985 18927
Arunachal Pradesh
31 40 19 90
Assam 348 36 3 387
Bihar 0 0 160 160
Chhattisgarh 10910 29192 4381 44483
Jharkhand 39480 30894 6338 76712
Madhya Pradesh 8041 10295 2645 20981
Maharashtra 5255 2907 1992 10154
Meghalaya 89 17 471 577
Nagaland 9 0 13 22
Orissa 19944 31484 13799 65227
Sikkim 0 58 43 101
Uttar Pradesh 866 196 0 1062
West Bengal 11653 11603 5071 28327
Total 105820 123470 37920 267210
Type of Coal Proved Indicated
Inferred
Total
(A) Coking :-
-Prime Coking 4614 699 0 5313
-Medium Coking 12449 12064 1880 26393
-Semi-Coking 482 1003 222 1707
Sub-Total Coking 17545 13766 2102 33413
(B) Non-Coking:- 87798 109614 35312 232724
(C) Tertiary Coal 477 90 506 1073
Grand Total 105820 123470 37920 267210
Note: All Quantities in Million Tonnes Above details are as on 1st April 2010
CLASSIFICATION OF COAL RESERVES
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FUEL WISE BREAKUP OF POWER GENERATION CAPACITY(as on 30-Nov-2011)
FUEL MW PERCENTAGE
Total Thermal 121805 65.7%
Coal 102863 55.5%
Gas 17743 9.6%
Oil 1200 0.6%
Hydro 38749 20.9%
Nuclear 4780 2.6%
Renewable 20162 10.9%
TOTAL 185496 100%
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– Significance of Coal & Primary Energy availability
– Demand Supply Scenario of Coal
– Policy Snapshots
– Way Forward
Contents
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TARGET CAPACITY ADDITONS: 11TH – 13TH PLANS
11th Plan 12th Plan 13th Plan
62374
100347102000
44441
76613
64000
Capacity Additions: 11th - 13th Plans
Total target Coal based target
All values in MW
Additional Coal Requirement ~ 335 MT
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SECTOR WISE COAL DEMAND
Sector Demand (in million tons)
2011-12 2016-17
Power (Utilities) 460 750
Power (Captive) 40 85
Cement 29 50
Sponge Iron and Others 120 135
Total Non-Coking Coal 649 1020
Coking Coal 47 105
Total 696 1125
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DOMESTIC COAL SCENARIO
14
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION - LAST 4 YEARS TARGETGROWTH
RATE OVER '10-’11 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12
CIL 379.46 403.73 431.27 431.32 460.5 7%
SCCL 40.6 44.54 50.43 51.33 47.05 -8%
OTHERS 30.48 38.98 50.35 49.42 65.87 33%
TOTAL 450.54 487.25 532.05 532.07 573.42 8%
Dispatch by CIL 401.46 415.96 423.77
Stock as at year end 45.6 47.73 63.04 63.54
Above figures are in Million Tonnes
No increase in production over previous year! Expansion fear for
Project developers.
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INDIAN COAL: Production Vs Dispatch
15
COAL PRODUCTION IN 2010-11
PRODUCER (COAL CO.) 2009-10 2010-11 GROWTH RATE
ECL 30.058 30.81 3%
BCCL 27.512 29 5%
CCL 47.083 47.52 1%
NCL 67.67 66.25 -2%
WCL 45.735 43.65 -5%
SECL 108.009 112.71 4%
MCL 104.079 100.28 -4%
NECL 1.113 1.1 -1%
TOTAL CIL 431.259 431.32 0%SCCL 50.429 51.333 2%
CAPTIVE BLOCKS, OTHERS 50.354 49.417 -2%
ALL INDIA 532.04 532.07 0%
COAL DISPATCH IN 2010-11
PRODUCER (COAL CO.) 2009-10 2010-11 GROWTH RATE
ECL 28.83 32.6 13%
BCCL 24.86 28.76 16%
CCL 44.28 49.99 13%
NCL 66.67 72 8%
WCL 45.49 46.48 2%
SECL 105.87 111.98 6%
MCL 98.15 116.75 19%
NECL 1.07 1.25 17%
TOTAL CIL 415.22 459.81 11%SCCL 49.27 47.05 -5%
CAPTIVE BLOCKS 43.54 65.87 51%
ALL INDIA 508.03 572.73 13%
Almost no increase in production in coalfields nearest
to UP
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FSAs & LoAs status30th Apr 2011
16
FSA Total No. of FSAs – 1599 for a Total Qty of 391 mT
17mT more FSAs to be signed for Power Utilities. Total would become 418mT.
LOA Total No. LoAs issued for 725 consumers for a total Qty of 551 mTpa
Of this, 598 Units having coal requirement of 484 mT submitted CG. 569 Units submitted completion of milestones for a quantity of 440 mTpa
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• There is steadily growing gap between overall coal consumption as against the domestic production.
• While the production grew at 6.7% the consumption grew over 7.4% annually.
• It is evident that availability from domestic production is out paced by growing coal demand.
• Bridging such demand–supply gap will remain a major challenge for the coal sector.
• Import of coal, focus on indigenous coal production through technological innovation will be the focus areas for the future
Demand-Supply Gap
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* Revised production target
Demand-Supply Gap
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CHALLENGING ISSUES
19
Negative Coal Balance position to further widen with future capacity addition
Further recommendations by SLC (LT) withheld due to widening Gap in Demand Supply - 1500 applications seeking linkage of about 3000 Million MT of Coal pending at MoC.
Supply for New consumers under FSA limited to 50% of indigenous coal - No level playing field for new consumers.
Future consumers have no other avenue other than E-auction to procure coal which is limited to around 10% of production.
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Alternative Sourcing of Coal
20
Source Issues Impact
‘e’ auction Coal Limited Availability Increase in Price due to demand supply mismatch
Imported Coal Equipment Design
Price
Logistics
Limited Blending
Higher Variable Charge
Quantity Restriction / Price Increase
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Variable Cost with Different Fuel Mix
21
# based on current prices * As per Model FSA, trigger level is at 50%
Coal Type Energy Cost# Fuel Mix
Scenario IFuel Mix
Scenario II*Fuel Mix
Scenario III
[Rs /1000 K Cal] [%] [%] [%]Linkage Coal 0.42 40% 50% 60%e' auction coal / Open Market
1.37 35% 30% 25%
Imported Coal 1.57 25% 20% 15%
Weighted Avg Variable Cost (Rs/KWH) 2.66 2.39 2.12
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COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA : HISTORY
22
Total of Indo, SA& Aus
Non-Coking Coal Imports into India
Year IndonesiaSouth Africa Australia Total
2005-06 12.77 2.15 0.19 15.11
2006-07 14.95 1.75 0 16.7
2007-08 14.93 4.86 0.21 20
2008-09 22.06 5.77 0.62 28.45
2009-10 33.59 15.3 0.1 48.99
2010-11 43.2 20.3 0.07 63.57
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COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA (Port-wise)
23
PortsThermal Coal
FY 09-10 FY 10-11Kolkata, Haldia 335,642 1,336,281
Paradip 5,003,452 5,746,814Ennore 2,858,061 1,364,708Chennai 9,053,251 7,110,988Tuticorin 6,870,915 6,282,067
Mangalore 741,017 1,726,047Goa 857,195 397,738
Mumbai 3,461,598 4,945,804Vizag 2,111,411 4,345,111
Navlakhi 939,991 1,416,776Porbandar 665,000 1,380,000Bhavnagar 52,154 0
Pipavav 391,571 1,429,545Cochin 148,194 20,000Mundra 7,619,322 12,678,366
Bedi 0 0Kandla 2,039,872 2,854,906
Magdalla 1,304,379 1,116,149Dahej 0 70,500
Krishnapatnam 1,740,157 4,934,678Karaikal NA 1,080,260
Gangavaram NA 1,928,010Kakinada NA 1,315,668
Others 3,270,000 3,526,962
Total 49,463,182 65,745,415Growth 33%
To Power sector: 29mT
Though port capacities has increased phenomenally but Railway capacity has not increased to the required level
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– Significance of Coal & Primary Energy availability
– Demand Supply Scenario of Coal sector
– Policy Snapshots
– Way Forward
Contents
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
New Coal Distribution Policy
As per New Coal Distribution Policy (NCDP), 100% of Normative Coal requirement of Power Utilities to be met by CIL (subsequently % was reduced to 90% for landlocked plants in SLC meeting dated 11th Nov ’08) even through Imports
Though NCDP doesn’t distinguish between old Vs new consumers; However, LoAs for new consumers being issued by CIL with the concept of Incremental Coal Availability
Policy Snapshots
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As per prevailing practice, CIL indicates Total Coal Availability for Power
Sector for a given year to CEA
Out of this total indicated coal quantity 306 MT of coal is kept aside for power
projects commissioned as on 31st March ’09
Coal Quantity for new Power Projects commissioned after Mar ‘09 - Only
additional coal beyond 306 MT being distributed amongst new units by CEA
For FY 11-12, CIL has given 347 MT coal for Power Sector; after keeping aside
306 MT, the effective coal quantity available to Projects Commissioned after
Mar ‘09 ~ 41 MT
Linkage Coal Distribution
Policy Snapshots
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Linkage Coal Distribution – Contd.
Coal Allocation by CEA for FY 11-12
(Million Tons)
Capacity (MW)
Remarks
TPPs commissioned during FY 09-10
16.6 5345 ACQ for these projects works out to be 23.95 MT
TPPs commissioned during FY 10-11
15.90 5355 ACQ for these projects works out to be 23.18 MT
TPPs commissioned /to be commissioned during FY 11-12
8.5 Expected Capacity Addition ~ 11000 MW
Total 41
(Incremental) Linkage Coal Distribution by CEA for FY 11-12:
Policy Snapshots
With this meager coal quantity available for distribution, TPPs have been allocated coal as low as 15% of the Linkage Quantity
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• Coal will continue to remain as the dominant energy source for India for the foreseeable future.
• Domestic coal production requires to be augmented by technological up gradation speedy project clearance Effective R&R policy
• Coal Block allottees to gear up for taking an important role in meeting the demand
• If the entire coal committed by CIL to Power Sector is to be distributed in equitable manner amongst all power sector consumers – coal realization would be same (70-80% of ACQ) for all Power Utilities (old and new) and will create level playing field for all players in the sector
• Growth in Logistics remains a constraint for coal transportation – Railways need to gear up for improving rolling stock availability.
• Port capacity requires augmentation with matching evacuation system
• Demand side management for efficient coal use is also to be focused.
Way forward
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