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Transcript of © LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved SPV Power Technology in India Satyendra Kumar Lanco Solar, India...
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
SPV Power Technology in India
Satyendra KumarLanco Solar, India
ASEAN-IndiaWorkshop on Cooperation in New and
Renewable Energy
05-06 Nov., 2012Vigyan Bhawan, New Delhi
Power Sector in India – Role Solar Can Play
India’s Current Solar PV Installation Base
Agenda
SPV Technologies
Lessons Learned
Conclusions
Norway
Canada
UAE
USA
Australia
Japan
France
Germany
Russia
S. Africa
World Avg
China
Brazil
India
Pakistan
Nigeria
0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000
24,867
17,061
16,891
13,654
11,217
8,071
7,931
7,149
6,435
4,759
2,875
2,631
2,232
778
436
126
Kwh/annum
India lacks significantly in Per Capita Consumption
Source: World Bank, CEA
USAChina
Japan
Russia
India
German
y
Canad
a
France
Brazil
Italy
0
200
400
600
800
1000
12001084 1050
280233
194138 125 119 104 102
GW
India ranks 5th in terms of Installed Ca-pacity
Source: EIA, CEA
India – Electricity Opportunity
India per capita Electricity Consumption is lagging well behind World Average and this would catch up fast owing to rising levels of Disposable Income
An average of 16 GW of power generation capacity installations required each year till 2020 to meet fast growing demand for electricity power
Source: D&B Industrial Research Service
India has huge potential for solar power deployment
Source: MNRE, Edelweiss Research (As at June30, 2012
Solar Power Density in India
India receives on an average 4-7kWh/m2 of solar energy daily with an average of 250-300 sunny days in a year
Rajasthan and Gujarat receive maximum radiation in the range of 6–6.6 KWh per square meter
Cumulative grid connected Installed solar power capacity is quite low in India
Accounting for a negligible proportion of India’s power capacity
Capacity additions in Indian solar industry have been miniscule as compared to the additions globally
India yet to optimally utilize its solar potential
Grid connected Solar Power(Cumulative Capacity)
1,035 MW
Additions during last year (FY12) 446 MW
Off-grid Solar PV plants(Cumulative Capacity)
85 MW
Solar Water Heating – Collector Area(Cumulative Capacity)
5.63 Mn Sq. m
Solar installed capacity – India
Source *Potential (MW) Installed (MW) as on Jan’12
Wind Power 45,000 16,179
Biomass 16,000 1142
Small Hydro 15,000 3300
Cogeneration-Bagasse
3,500 1952
Waste to Energy 2,700 74
Solar Unlimited 481
Source: * MNRE - Development of Conceptual Framework for REC Mechanism
India Poised to be a Major Global Contributor
E&Y Solar energy attractiveness Index : India ranked 2nd in the world – only behind USA
Rank CountryInstalled
capacity (GW) in 2011
Solar Power Target
Clean Energy Target
Key incentives
1 USA 4.62020 :~ 16
GW17% Production / Investment tax credit
2 India 0.5 2022 : 22 GW 15.90% FiTs, REC, Capital subsidy
3 China 3.02015 : 9 GW 2020 : 50 GW
15% of primary energy
Feed-in-Tariffs (FiTs), GBI for rooftop an biding installed PV, Tax incentive for PV
4 Italy 12.4 NA 17% FiTs, REC, Tax incentive
5 Spain 5.32020 : 8-9
GW20% REC, Tax incentive
6 Australia 1.3 NA20% of total consumption
Generation Based Incentive (RBI), Renewable Energy Certificate (REC)
7 Japan 5.0 2020 : 28 GW 22% FiTs, REC, Tax incentive
8 Germany 25.02020 : 50-70
GW
35% (50% by 2030, 65% by 2040, 80% by 2050)
FiTs, REC, Tax incentive
India, USA rapidly advancing; EU slow and steady
USA :
Continues to grow rapidly with a 300 MW
in Arizona receiving approvals. Expected
to remain the largest solar market in
world in near future
India :
Rapid growth seen in high potential solar
states of Rajasthan and Gujarat. Gujarat
launches Asia's largest solar park of 600
MW
China :
Many large-scale plants commissioned.
Hit by oversupply in the international
export market
Italy, Spain, Germany :
Affected by the sovereign debt crisis and
a weak future economic outlook of the
Euro
Global Solar Market Outlook
Source : Industry Research, Ernst & Young Report on Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness indices
Institutional Arrangement to support bundling of Solar Power
Strong National Policy Initiatives at the Centre (JNNSM)
State Government(Land, Water, Other
Sanctions)
Solar Power Developer
Central Electricity Authority
(Technical Support)
National Thermal Power Corporation
(NTPC)
NTPC Vidyut Vyapar Nigam (NVVN)
Buys → Bundles → Sells
State Electricity Boards (Buyers of bundled power)
CERCDetermines Tariff
1 kWh Solar
4 kWh Thermal Bundled 5 kWh at INR 4.17/kWh
Comprehensive framework for development of solar power in India
Covers both solar power generation as well as manufacturing
Incorporates specific fiscal / monetary incentives
Objectives
Installed solar power generation capacity of 20 GW by 2020; 100 GW by 2030 and 200 GW by 2050
To achieve grid parity by 2020
To achieve parity with coal-based thermal power generation by 2030
4-5 GW of installed solar manufacturing capacity by 2017
20 mn solar lighting systems for rural areas by 2022
Note : Rates for SPV and ST based on average bidding tariff. The above rates expected to be achieved on commissioning of all power plants by May 2013
6
Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission (JNNSM)
Among the states, Gujarat – Leading the Way
Tariffs PV project (Rs. /kWh)
Thermal projects (Rs. /kWh)
Projects commissioned before 31.12.10
15 (for first 12 years) 10 (for first 12 years)
5 (from 13th to 25th year) 3 (from 13th to 25th year)
Projects commissioned after 31.12.14
12 (for first 12 years) 9 (for first 12 years)
3 (from 13th to 25th year) 3 (from 13th to 25th year)
Gujarat
First state to launch an independent solar policy in 2009.
Policy operative till 2014.
PPAs of 969 MW signed. The projects allocated through the
MOU route with pre-qualification criteria
Projects of 690 MW commissioned till 30th June, 2012.
Asia’s largest Solar Park – The Charaanka Solar park in Patan
district of Gujarat inaugurated in April, 2012
An energy surplus state. Does not need to allocate more
projects to fulfill its RPO obligations
Gujarat Energy Development Authority (GEDA) provides
assistance in identification of suitable locations, facilitation in
arranging Right of Way & recommending the project
High investor confidence –
More than 1000MW of projects have pre-registered for
future allocations
Applications worth 1715 MW received for allocation of
150MW
Banaskantha
Patan
Surendra Nagar
Asia’s largest solar park
…And other states following suit
Particulars Karnataka Rajasthan Madhya Pradesh Tamilnadu Orissa
Policy instrument Karnataka Solar Policy, 2011-16
Rajasthan Solar Energy policy, 2011-2017
MP Solar Energy Policy TN Solar Energy Policy 2012
Target Capacity 200 MW - DISCOMS upto 2015-16 (40 MW p.a.)
50 MW - Thermal 100 MW - REC mechanism
50 MW SPV; 50 MW ST DISCOMSPhase I (upto 2013) -200MWPhase II (2013 - 17) - 400MW 10 MW : MNRE
200 MW SPV announced
• 3000 MW by 2015, including rooftop•1500 MW utility scale by 205
50 MW SPV in 2012-13 announced
Capacity Cap SPV : Min 3 MW, Max 10 MWST : Min 5 MW
SPV : Min 5 MW, Max 10 MWST : Min 5 MW, Max - 50 MW
SPV : Min 5 MW NA 25 MW
Sale of Energy under state policy
Reverse bidding Ceiling tariff :
SPV : INR 14.50 / kWhST : INR 11.35 / kWh
Reverse bidding Ceiling Tariff :
SPV : INR 10.12 / kWh
Reverse bidding Ceiling Tariff :
SPV : INR 15.35 / kWh
Reverse bidding Ceiling Tariff :
SPV : INR 15.35 / kWh
Reverse bidding Lowest bidder
offered entire 25 MW
Operational :State PolicyJNNSM, Phase I Batch IMigration schemeRPSSGP through IREDA
14 MW ---
-25 projects : 125 MW8 projects : 37.5 MW10 projects : 10 MW
----
---
-1 project : 5 MW-7 projects : 7 MW
Bids awarded under state policy / other schemes
80MW under State Policy 30 MW - 30 months of PPA; 50 MW - 18 months of PPA 817 MW - REC mechanism 100 MW - NTPC – Bundled
Last date for submission of RfS for 200 MW postponed indefinitely
200 MW under State Policy
Expected allocation of 1000MW in 2013
25 MW
Source: MNRE, State Nodal Agencies, Research Reports
3,512
902
3,136
1,476
1,034
2,150
1,980
4,398
1,262
2,086
1,928
3,656
3,004
1,690
State Electricity Consumption (Bn units)Equivalent Solar Installation capacity (MW) RPPO 3% (FY 22E)
FY13E FY 22E
Andhra Pradesh 89.0 175.6
Chhattisgarh 21.8 45.1
Gujarat 85.4 156.8
Haryana 38.4 73.8
Jharkhand 23.4 51.7
Karnataka 53.5 107.5
Madhya Pradesh 49.3 99.0
Maharashtra 125.7 219.9
Orissa 27.2 63.1
Punjab 60.5 104.3
Rajasthan 48.9 96.4
Tamil Nadu 87.2 182.8
Uttar Pradesh 79.3 150.2
West Bengal 41.0 84.5
Total 968.7 1,914.5
Solar RPOs Pushing the Frontiers Further
38,290 MW
• The solar power purchase obligation for the States start with 0.25% in phase 1 (FY2011-2013) and go up to 3% by FY 2022
• Installed solar capacity by FY 2022 estimated at 38 GW
*Source: MNRE and Bridge to India: Solar Compass: Oct 2012
as on Oct 2012
Total Grid Connected Installed Capacity Map – India
Solar – Knowledge base and Technology
Grid Extension, Availability and Stability
Solar Photovoltaics (SPV)
Technology PV production – whole value chain
Equipment PV production – whole value chain
Grid Connected Solar Farms – EPC, Inverters, Monitoring Systems
Engineering
Risk Assessment and Insurance
Solar Resource Assessment (GHI, DNI) : Satellite Based Estimates & Ground Measurements
Financing
What are various SPV technologies ?
c-Si Thin Films
Mono /Single-Crystal
Multi / Poly Crystal
Amorphous Silicon CdTe CIGS Organic
a-Si(single Junction)
Tandem /Micromorph/Double Jn/Triple Jn
18-23% 15-17.5% ~6-8% ~9-10% ~11% ~12% ~5% ?
Global Production: Technology Mix
© LANCO Group, All Rights Reserved
PolysiliconIngot/
WaferCells Modules
System Integration
Decentralised Application
Sand
Upstream Mid Stream Down Stream
GOVT OF INDIA – DOMESTIC SOLAR MFG ASPIRATIONS
Indian Solar Market demand is growing to be 1GW/yr by next year; and is set to increase further thereafter, due to Grid Parity achievement
To cater to the Indian market demand following manufacturing capacities are required:
Indian Solar PV Manufacturing
NSM Goal : 2 GW / yr Domestic Mfg by 2020
Existing / Under Constr Indian Capacities
Remarks
Polysilicon 12,000 T/yr 1,800 T/yr (constr) Lanco
Ingots & Wafers 2,300 MW/yr 300 MW/yr (constr) Lanco, Birla Surya
Cells 2,200 MW/yr 1,010 MW/yr Indosolar, Jupiter, BHEL, Websol, Tata, Moserbaer, EuroMultivision, BEL, CEL, SolarSemi
Modules 2,000 MW/yr 1,900 MW/yr More than 40 companies
PV Technology wise status (JNSM)
62.07%
37.93%
Thin Films c-si
Module Technology Breakup - by % capacity
JNSM –Phase I (Batch-1): 150 MW Phase I (Batch-2): 350 MW (Anticipated)
Cheaper Financing Options decide the technology options – Equipment comes with funding
c-Si Module to be manufactured domestically
c-Si cells and Module to be manufactured domestically
55%45%
Module Technology Break-up by % capac-
ity- Phase 2
Thin-film c-Si
16
Technology share in Gujarat & leading financiers
Multi, 46%CdTe, 23%
Am-Si,
24%
CIS
1% Tandems 6%
Technology share of PV projects in Gujarat totalling 935MW
Cheaper Financing Options decide the technology options – Equipment comes with funding
Technology Vision for the PV Future
• What technology is needed• What is needed to develop that technology• What challenges it would involve to get commercialized
Who needs the PV technology
For what?
Where/When does one need it
Who needs Solar ?
Who needs Solar ? For What?
A Systems Approach
• Top-down Approach – Grid Centric
• Bottoms-up Approach – Off Grid, Needs
Specific Solutions
Photovoltaic Systems
• PV Panels: high efficiency at low cost !
• Inverters: Long Life time ?, Higher efficiencies, Tropicalized,
more intelligent
• Variability of Solar Resource
- Storage solutions: Batteries, Ultracapacitors,….
• Power electronics – Load Specific
• Transport of power – Availability and Stability of Grid
Frugal Engineering – Tata Nano
Lessons Learned : Lack of reliable radiation data
22
Solar Monitoring Stations
MNRE has initiated a major project on Solar Radiation Resource Assessment (SRRA)
Centre for Wind Energy Technology (C‐WET) has installed a network of 51 Automatic Solar Radiation Monitoring Stations in different states
Project developers have to rely on satellite information from sources like NASA, NREL, etc
Uncertainty surrounding the generation potential at site. Different solar radiation database yield varying estimates.
The returns of a solar project are highly sensitive to radiation levels.
Lack of adequate ground-mounted monitoring stations to validate satellite based estimates
Radiation variability could significantly affect projected cash flows
Challenges Faced currently Move towards building Solar Radiation Atlas
Lessons Learned : Scale of Projects
23
Solar projects are small compared to traditional power plants
Lenders are reluctant to finance small transactions
In cases where finance is available, transaction costs are higher
Higher MW range of projects had to be promoted for using better evacuation infrastructure
Government realising these challenges has considerably increased the size of solar PV projects allotted in phase I batch II of JNNSM
From Batch I to Batch II , max capacity allotted to any developer has increased to 50 MW
States following the cue, are also encouraging large scale development which would further bring in economies of scale.
Particulars Max Cap
JNNSM Batch I Phase I Max 5 MW
JNNSM Batch II Phase I Max 50 MW for one developer; each project of max 20 MW
Karnataka 10 MW
Rajasthan 10 MW
MP No upper Limit
Gujarat 25 MW
Orissa Phase I & II 25 MW
Maximum Cap allotted to a developer for Solar PV
Challenges faced due to size of Projects Steps taken to address the issue
SPV Challenge:
The Grid Parity ?
Or
Grid Substitute / Support
Socket Parity
25
Road to Grid Parity is Blocked by the High Cost of Financing in India
● Prohibitive cost of financing in India in terms of
prevailing interest rates
● Long-tenure loans not available (15 years and
more) with Indian banks. Stretches cash-flows
during debt service period
* Includes Hedging Cost • NCDs = Non-convertible Debentures• ECAs= External Commercial Borrowings• ECA=Export credit agency l
7.7%7%
3%
10.5%
5%
2%
5.80%
4.90%6.70% 5.50%
9.00%
0.50%
3.30%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%Prime Lending Rates (2011) (%)
Mode of Solar Financing in India
Source: World Bank
*
*
Roadmap to High Growth & Grid Parity
Interest Subsidy / VGF for Solar Farm; Rs 15 L/ year/MW (for 5-years)
Higher number of RECs for Older Plants
World Class R&D Centre - High efficiency Solar cells; Reduction in BOS & Tracking system costs
Capital Subsidy / Incentives for domestic PV Mfg projects – to offset interest & power costs
Domestic Content & ADD support for 2-3 years
Rs.5 / unit
Every MW of Solar Power Plant create direct / indirect jobs:
Solar Mfg : 20 Solar Farm Project : 65O&M : 15
During 2012-17 : Potential 1,00,000 jobs
Grid Parity – Reliable & affordable power - Empowerment of rural population
THANK YOU!