© Kantar Worldpanel A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010.
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Transcript of © Kantar Worldpanel A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010.
© Kantar Worldpanel
A Summary Update of the Irish Grocery Market to 26 December 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Grocery Performance Summary
• The Grocery market continues to show value growth, the latest quarter shows market value growth of +2.1% year on year.
• Price inflation continues to be the key driver of this return to growth, standing at just under +4%.
• Branded vs. Private Label: Private label performance has dropped back this period as compared to the 12 weeks to November as consumers move back to branded for the holidays. Overall the trend continues to be upwards as the private label value share of the Irish grocery market is up almost one point compared to same period last year.
© Kantar Worldpanel
-1.0
-4.8 -4.6-4.0
-5.3
-6.3
-4.9
-7.6 -7.5-8.4
-6.9-7.5
-6.4-5.6
-3.6
-1.2-0.5
2.1 2.1
0.1
2.53.4
How has the grocery market performed this year?We continue to see growth for the grocery market over shorter periods.
4 weekly trended YoY Growth
KANTAR WORLDPANEL: 4 W/E 26TH DEC 2010Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 4w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010
9,436,973 9,108,004 8,894,702
2,301,266 2,145,830 2,190,358
52 w/e 28Dec 08
52 w/e 27Dec 09
52 w/e 26Dec 10
12 w/e 28Dec 08
12 w/e 27Dec 09
12 w/e 26Dec 10
52 we €000’s
-3.5% -2.3%
12 we €000’s
-6.8% +2.1%
Annual Performance
Quarterly Performance
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE TOTAL GROCERY MARKET PERFORMING? 4 W/E 4 w/e 26th Dec 2010 - The total grocery market has improved performance on last year in the 4 week run up to Christmas.
868,778
803,329
830,400
4 w/e 28 Dec 08 4 w/e 27 Dec 09 4 w/e 26 Dec 10
4 we €000’s
-7.5+3.4%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 4w/e 26th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING QUARTERLY MARKET GROWTH? 12 w/e 26th December 2010 – The food categories continue to see strong value growth while healthcare suffers
10 91.5 1.36.9 7.23.9 3.8
28.3 29.3
44.7 44.3
4.7 4.8
12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Value share % Value change
2
-6
-12
8
-1
6
1
3
Total Grocery
Alcohol
Healthcare
Household & Petcare
Toiletries
Ambient Food
Fresh & Chilled Food
Frozen Food
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS TOTAL FOOD PERFORMING?52 & 12 w/e 26th Dec 2010 Food continues to see growth over the shorter term, driven by Ambient.
7,390,057 7,240,472 7,097,630
1,774,245 1,667,193 1,717,863
52 w/e 28 Dec08
52 w/e 27 Dec09
52 w/e 26 Dec10
12 w/e 28 Dec08
12 w/e 27 Dec09
12 w/e 26 Dec10
52 we €000’s
-2.0% - 2.0%
12 we €000’s
-6.0% 3.0%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 52 & 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
HOW IS THE FOOD MARKET PERFORMING ON TRENDED BASIS? % VALUE GROWTH VS LAST YEAR, 12 WEEKLY TRENDED
-0.8
1.9
-7.3
3.0
2.31.7
0.5
-5.1
-3.0
-7.0-7.4
-7.2
-7.3
-6.0
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
12 w/e 27Dec 09
12 w/e 24Jan 10
12 w/e 21Feb 10
12 w/e 21Mar 10
12 w/e 18Apr 10
12 w/e 16May 10
12 w/e 13Jun 10
12 w/e 11Jul 10
12 w/e 08Aug 10
12 w/e 05Sep 10
12 w/e 03Oct 10
12 w/e 31Oct 10
12 w/e 28Nov 10
12 w/e 26Dec 10
TOTAL FOOD
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHICH SECTOR IS DRIVING MARKET VOLUME (PACK) GROWTH? 12 w/e 26th December 2010 – We are seeing some growth for ambient and frozen as they recover slightly in pack sales over the Christmas period
2.8 2.80.6 0.57.1 7.02.5 2.4
28.7 29.3
54.6 54.3
3.6 3.7
12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Volume share (Pack) Volume (Pack) change
-0.2
-1.6
-9.3
-1.2
-6.0
1.9
-0.8
0.5
Total Grocery
Alcohol
Healthcare
Household & Petcare
Toiletries
Ambient Food
Fresh & Chilled Food
Frozen Food
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Promotional activity is beginning to pick up again but remains behind the Christmas period last year.
19.7 19.5 19.820.2 20.0
19.519.1 19.0
18.519.0 19.1
19.7 19.519.1
18.4 18.1 18.3 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.617.0 17.0 17.1
17.8 17.9
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 Ap
r 09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Se
p 09
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 Ap
r 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
p 10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 3
1 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 2
8 N
ov 1
0
12 w
/e 2
6 D
ec 1
0
12
% Value Sold on Deal in Total Grocery, €
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Private label value share declining in latest 12 week period, while pack share continues to rise to its highest point in two years
30.4 30
.9 31.1
32.3
32.2
32.2 32.4 32
.8 33
33.3
33.1
32.9
32.4
32
32.6 33
33.5
33.2
32.9
33 32.9
32.9
32.8
32.9 33.1 33.3
32.9
34.1
33.3
33.1
33.1
33.2 33
.5 33.8 34
.5 34.7
34.8
34.5
34.3
34.2
34 34.2
34.3 34
.7 35 35.1
34.9
34.5
34.2
34 34.2 34
.6 35.1 35.3
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 Ap
r 09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 0
6 Se
p 09
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 Fe
b 10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 Ap
r 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
p 10
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 3
1 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 2
8 N
ov 1
0
12 w
/e 2
6 D
ec 1
0
% Value share
% Packs share
13
Private Label Share of Grocery
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
WHERE IS PRIVATE LABEL STRONG?
46.5%
Private Label Spend % 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
81
70 6967
6361
54
48 47
4139 39 39
3734 33 33
17 1715 14 14 13 13 12 12 11
9 8 8 86 6
4 4 3 2
29
23 2117
2020
3132
Po
ult
ry+G
ame
Fre
sh F
ish
Ch
illed
Bak
ery
Fre
sh M
eat
Fo
od
Wra
ps
Fro
zen
Po
ult
ry
Ch
illed
Co
nve
nie
nce
Fro
zen
Mea
t
Kit
chen
To
wel
s
Fac
ial T
issu
es
Ch
illed
Dri
nks
Sw
eet
Ho
me
Co
oki
ng
To
ilet
Tis
sues
Dai
ry P
rod
uct
s
Fro
zen
Fis
h
To
tal G
roce
ry
Fru
it+V
eg+S
alad
s
Pet
foo
d
Fro
zen
Pre
par
ed F
oo
ds
Ble
ach
es&
WC
Cln
rs
Han
d W
ash
Pro
du
cts
Sav
ou
ry H
om
e C
oo
kin
g
So
ft D
rin
ks
Ski
nca
re
Bis
cuit
s
Bre
ad
Bre
akfa
st C
erea
ls
Win
e
Fab
ric
Co
nd
itio
ner
s
San
pro
Liq
uid
So
ap
Hea
lth
care
Ho
t B
ever
ages
An
tise
pti
cs
Co
nfe
ctio
ner
y
Sau
ces
Fu
rnit
ure
Po
lish
Air
Fre
shen
ers
Bat
h/S
ho
wer
Gel
s
Bee
r+L
ager
Cid
er
Mo
uth
was
hes
To
oth
pas
te
Sh
amp
oo
Was
h A
dd
itiv
es
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
3.92%2.10%
0
0
0
0
0
0
12 W
/e 0
2 D
ec 0
7
12 W
/e 3
0 D
ec 0
7
12 W
/e 2
7 Ja
n 08
12 W
/e 2
4 F
eb 0
8
12 W
/e 2
3 M
ar 0
8
12 W
/e 2
0 A
pr 0
8
12 W
/e 1
8 M
ay 0
8
12 W
/e 1
5 Ju
n 08
12 W
/e 1
3 Ju
l 08
12 W
/e 1
0 A
ug 0
8
12 W
/e 0
7 S
ep 0
8
12 W
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 W
/e 0
2 N
ov 0
8
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 F
eb 0
9
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 A
pr 0
9
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 A
ug 0
9
12 w
/e 0
6 S
ep 0
9
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov 0
9
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 10
12 w
/e 2
1 F
eb 1
0
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 A
pr 1
0
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 10
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 A
ug 1
0
12 w
/e 0
5 S
ep 1
0
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 3
1 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 2
8 N
ov 1
0
12 w
/e 2
6 D
ec 1
0
% c
ha
ng
e
Inflation Value
Market Growth & Inflation Inflation has come down slightly this period, but value growth continues to
improve.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
92 92 95 92 90 90 8674 75 74 73 75 78 72 66
4840 35 35 34 33 27 25
18 16 20 18 20 20 2538 40
5058
6881 79 80
12 w
/e 2
4 Fe
b 08
12 w
/e M
ar 0
812
w/e
20
Apr 0
812
w/e
18
May
08
12 w
/e 1
5 Ju
n 08
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 08
12 w
/e 1
0 Au
g 08
12 w
/e 0
7 Se
p 08
12 w
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
812
w/e
02
Nov
08
12 w
/e 3
0 N
ov 0
812
w/e
28
Dec
08
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 09
12 w
/e 2
2 Fe
b 09
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
912
w/e
19
Apr 0
912
w/e
17
May
09
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 09
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 Au
g 09
12 w
/e 6
Sep
09
12 w
/e 4
Oct
09
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov 0
912
w/e
29
Nov
09
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
912
w/e
25
Jan
1012
w/e
21
Feb
10
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0 12
w/e
18
Apri
l 10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
012
w/e
13
Jun
1012
w/e
11
July
10
12w
/e 0
8 Au
g 10
12 w
/e 0
5 Se
pt 1
012
w/e
03
Oct
10
12 w
/e 3
1 O
ct 1
012
w/e
28
Nov
10
12 w
/e 2
6 D
ec 1
0
% of Markets with like-for-like Price Inflation
16
The number of markets seeing inflation remains high at around 80%
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
17
Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price BrandThe budget tier continues to see growth as shoppers seek cheaper packs
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
Change in sales Share of sales
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
No of Trips per Household56.7 55.9
12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Spend per Trip
€23.98 €24.00
12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
Average Spend per Household€1,359 €1,342
12 w/e 27 Dec 09 12 w/e 26 Dec 10
SHOPPERS CUT BACK THIS PERIOD: SHOPPING LESS OFTEN, BUT
MAINTAINING SPEND AT €24 PER TRIP
What has been the Effect on Shopper Behaviour?
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
More emphasis on Trolley shopsIn the latest period, shoppers are looking to plan ahead more, instead of smaller top-up shops.
-8.3
1.2
3.4
-5.5
0.8
-0.5
Destination Baskets Trolley
% change in spend
% change in packs
60.4%35.4%4.2%1 item 2-9 items 10+ items
% of spend
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
Brief Overview of the UK Market
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery Volume (Packs) Growth by Price BrandUK are also seeing an increase in budget products, but we are also seeing an increase in the amount of super premium products bought.
27
20
32.6
11.2
9
% Packs
SuperPremium
Premium
Good
Standard
Budget
Growth in Grocery sales (Packs)
2.4
15.9
-4.4
-1.3 -0.6
1.1
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
AllPurchasing
Budget(Median -
75%)
Standard(Median -
25%)
Good(Medianprice)
Premium(Median+25%)
Super Prem(Median+75%)
Change in sales Share of sales
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery evolution – Inflation and shopper reaction
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
12 W
/e 2
7 Ja
n 0
8
12 W
/e 2
4 F
eb 0
8
12 W
/e 2
3 M
ar 0
8
12 W
/e 2
0 A
pr
08
12 W
/e 1
8 M
ay 0
8
12 W
/e 1
5 Ju
n 0
8
12 W
/e 1
3 Ju
l 08
12 W
/e 1
0 A
ug
08
12 W
/e 0
7 S
ep 0
8
12 W
/e 0
5 O
ct 0
8
12 W
/e 0
2 N
ov
08
12 w
/e 2
8 D
ec 0
8
12 w
/e 2
5 Ja
n 0
9
12 w
/e 2
2 F
eb 0
9
12 w
/e 2
2 M
ar 0
9
12 w
/e 1
9 A
pr
09
12 w
/e 1
7 M
ay 0
9
12 w
/e 1
4 Ju
n 0
9
12 w
/e 1
2 Ju
l 09
12 w
/e 0
9 A
ug
09
12 w
/e 0
6 S
ep 0
9
12 w
/e 0
4 O
ct 0
9
12 w
/e 0
1 N
ov
09
12 w
/e 2
9 N
ov
09
12 w
/e 2
7 D
ec 0
9
12 w
/e 2
4 Ja
n 1
0
12 w
/e 2
1 F
eb 1
0
12 w
/e 2
1 M
ar 1
0
12 w
/e 1
8 A
pr
10
12 w
/e 1
6 M
ay 1
0
12 w
/e 1
3 Ju
n 1
0
12 w
/e 1
1 Ju
l 10
12 w
/e 0
8 A
ug
10
12 w
/e 0
5 S
ep 1
0
12 w
/e 0
3 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 3
1 O
ct 1
0
12 w
/e 2
8 N
ov
10
12 w
/e 2
6 D
ec 1
0
Inflation
HH Spend change
12 w/e 26 Dec 2010
© Kantar Worldpanel
UK Grocery update to 26 Dec 2010
– Inflation rate has risen to 3.0 this period and we expect this to continue in the coming periods.
– 70% of markets are in growth (volume) in the 12 weeks leading up to Christmas.
– The average discount is higher in many stores compared to the same time last year.
– Households are taking advantage of the increase in promotional activity in the run up to the festive period.
Source: Kantar Worldpanel Data to 12 w/e 26 th Dec 2010