The Irish & UK Grocery Retail Landscape - Local Enterprise · © Kantar Worldpanel-19.9-1.8-0.7...

© Kantar Worldpanel

The Irish & UK

Grocery Retail

Landscape

David Berry – Commercial Director, Kantar Worldpanel


The Agenda

–Confidence Returning

–GB Key Trends

–ROI Key Trends

–ROI Retailer Evaluation

–Brand Growth Drivers

–Future Prediction

>

© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel

Source: KBC/ESRI Consumer Sentiment Index


-19.9

-1.8-0.7 -0.5 -0.3

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Annual Change In CSO Retail Sales Index

Total Retail Sales

What is the impact on retail sales?

Source: CSO Retail Sales Index


-3.4

-2.8

-0.1

0.6 0.8

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

How has grocery spend evolved?

Source: Kantar Worldpanel, data to 5th Jan 2014


4 4

3 3

2

1 1 1

-1

-2

-3 -3

Q3 WE & USA Grocery Market Sales Performance

What is the global context?

Source: Europanel, Q3 2013


How do GB & Ireland grocery markets compare?

–Market Size

–Grocery Spend per HH

–Market Growth

–Price Inflation

–€9b

–€5,500

–0.8%

–2.9%

–£104b

–£3,900

–+3.7%

–+2.5%


© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel© Kantar Worldpanel

4.5

4.0

3.4

2.5

2.0

1.9

1.7

Fresh & Chilled

Ambient Food

Alcohol*

Frozen Food

Healthcare

Household

Toiletries

All GB macro categories continue to grow

1.9

1.4

1.3

0.7

-3.1

-3.3

-7.0

Ambient Food

Toiletries

Fresh & Chilled

Household

Frozen Food

Alcohol*

Healthcare



26.8

14.7

15.0

11.3

5.4

4.3

2.7

2.4

26.2

14.4

15.0

10.9

5.2

4.5

3.3

2.8

GB retailer performance



0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Ma

y-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

n-0

8Ju

l-0

8A

ug-0

8S

ep-0

8O

ct-

08

Nov-0

8D

ec-0

8Ja

n-0

9F

eb

-09

Ma

r-0

9A

pr-

09

Ma

y-0

9M

ay-0

9Ju

n-0

9Ju

l-0

9A

ug-0

9S

ep-0

9O

ct-

09

Nov-0

9D

ec-0

9Ja

n-1

0F

eb

-10

Ma

r-1

0A

pr-

10

Ma

y-1

0M

ay-1

0Ju

n-1

0Ju

l-1

0A

ug-1

0S

ep-1

0O

ct-

10

Nov-1

0D

ec-1

0Ja

n-1

1F

eb

-11

Ma

r-1

1A

pr-

11

Ma

y-1

1M

ay-1

1Ju

n-1

1Ju

l-1

1A

ug-1

1S

ep-1

1O

ct-

11

Nov-1

1D

ec-1

1Ja

n-1

2F

eb

-12

Ma

r-1

2A

pr-

12

Ap

r-1

2M

ay-1

2Ju

n-1

2Ju

l-1

2A

ug-1

2S

ep-1

2O

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12

Nov-1

2D

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2Ja

n-1

3F

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-13

Ma

r-1

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13

Ap

r-1

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ay-1

3Ju

n-1

3Ju

l-1

3A

ug-1

3S

ep-1

3O

ct-

13

Nov-1

3D

ec-1

3Ja

n-1

4

12 we growth (Grocers RST) 12 we inflation

Recession Recovery? Double Dip / Austerity

GB market growth vs. inflation



0

1

2

3

4

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Sha

re (

Exp

end

iture

)

Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers

Aldi Lidl

Growing Discounter strength



0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

28

30

32

34

19

93

19

94

19

95

19

96

19

97

19

98

19

99

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

Sha

re (

Exp

end

iture

)

Long-Term Share of Till Roll Grocers

Tesco Asda Sainsbury's Morrisons Total

With a clear impact on multiples



27.8

24.1

19.8

5.9

5.7

5.5

26.2

23.9

20.1

7.1

6.4

5.2

ROI retailer performance



€1.6m

€5.7m

€7.3m

€1m

€810k

€4.2m

€762k

€258k

€434k

€6m

€6.1m

€3.3m

€2.1m

€2.1m

€122k

Shopper switching patterns

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://users.skynet.be/sky39402/Images/lidl.gif&imgrefurl=http://users.skynet.be/sky39402/germany.htm&usg=__DdNvfiBGF7UaINW1K-c3BHncyYQ=&h=308&w=310&sz=11&hl=en&start=1&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=Rqc6LfyvSorLrM:&tbnh=116&tbnw=117&prev=/images?q=lidl&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLT_enGB336GB336&sa=N&um=1

http://images.google.co.uk/imgres?imgurl=http://blog.al.com/frugalmom/2008/03/medium_aldiLogo.gif&imgrefurl=http://blog.al.com/frugalmom/2008/03/aldi_update.html&usg=__pW_4YuM24aS84SOIKqa_Xet1B0s=&h=288&w=240&sz=21&hl=en&start=2&um=1&itbs=1&tbnid=JW00Q-kpdMWNwM:&tbnh=115&tbnw=96&prev=/images?q=aldi&hl=en&rlz=1T4GGLT_enGB336GB336&um=1


0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

18 N

ov 0

7

13 J

an 0

8

09 M

ar

08

04 M

ay 0

8

29 J

un 0

8

24 A

ug 0

8

19 O

ct 08

14 D

ec 0

8

08 F

eb 0

9

05 A

pr

09

31 M

ay 0

9

26 J

ul 09

20 S

ep 0

9

15 N

ov 0

9

10 J

an 1

0

07 M

ar

10

02 M

ay 1

0

27 J

un 1

0

22 A

ug 1

0

17 O

ct 10

12 D

ec 1

0

06 F

eb 1

1

03 A

pr

11

29 M

ay 1

1

24 J

ul 11

18 S

ep 1

1

13 N

ov 1

1

08 J

an 1

2

04 M

ar

12

29 A

pr

12

24 J

un 1

2

19 A

ug 1

2

14 O

ct 12

09 D

ec 1

2

03 F

eb 1

3

31 M

ar

13

26 M

ay 1

3

21 J

ul 13

15 S

ep 1

3

13 O

ct 13

05 J

an 1

4

Tesco Dunnes SuperValu Superquinn Total Discounters

ROI retailer momentum


˃Price Promise

˃Online Escalation

˃Convenience

˃Strong Offers

Retailer areas of focus

˃Superquinn transfer

˃Always On multi-channel

˃Own Brand development

˃Building the brand

˃Targeted activity

˃Own Brand improvement

˃Up-weighting spend

˃Dublin opportunity

˃Store expansion

˃Range optimisation


3.8%2.9%

-0.6%

0.7%

-12%

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

902

904

906

908

910

912

1001

1003

1005

1007

1009

1011

1013

1102

1104

1106

1108

1110

1112

1201

1203

1205

1207

1209

1211

1213

1302

1304

1306

1308

1310

1312

Inflation HH Spend change

Source: Kantar Worldpanel Ireland (ROI )

Grocery inflation across 38,000 items

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

ROI market growth vs. inflation


So how are shoppers coping?

Buy less?

+1%

Trade Down?

-2%

Store choice?

-1%


54.4 53.4 52

45.6 46.6 48

2011 2012 2013

+6.7%

-3.0%

VS.


…..of the top 1000 brands are in

value sales growth

?%


…and growing for two

consecutive years?

51%


21%


13.2% 17.5%For the growth

brands

A Consistent Innovation Pipeline

% of grocery spend from

NPD


2011 20% Sales

2012 24% Sales

2013 29% Sales

Provide Pricing Clarity


3

7

9

21

0

Growing in 6 Stores

Growing in 5 Stores

Growing in 4 Stores

Growing in 3 Stores

Growing in 2 Stores

Growing in 1 Store

Brand Distribution By No. Of Growth Stores

Balanced Trading Platform

Average of 3.5% sales through Discounters


LESS DISCOUNT –MORE WEEKS?

PROMOTIONAL STRATEGIES TO CONSIDER

FACT: SHOPPERS DON’T WORK OUT THEDISCOUNT – THEY PERCEIVE VALUE

MULTIBUY CONSTANTLY

FACT: BUYING MORE INCREASES NORMAL RATE OF PURCHASE RETURN

MOVE TOWARDSPROMOTIONS ON LARGER SIZES

FACT: DEAL ORIENTATED SHOPPERS ARE BIASED TOWARDS FAMILIES

SAME DISCOUNT –EXTEND ACROSSMORE LINES?

FACT: SHOPPERS BUY MORE WHEN YOUMAKE THINGS EASIER!


Consistent Growth Checklist

1. Innovate

2. Clear Pricing

3. Physical Availability

4. Trade with Discounters

5. Promote More (effectively)


€8.9b €9.8b2013 2018

The Irish & UK Grocery Retail Landscape - Local Enterprise · © Kantar Worldpanel-19.9-1.8-0.7...

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Transcript of The Irish & UK Grocery Retail Landscape - Local Enterprise · © Kantar Worldpanel-19.9-1.8-0.7...