© ITTO 2000 THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION Forest Products Markets in the New...
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Transcript of © ITTO 2000 THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION Forest Products Markets in the New...
© ITTO 2000
THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
Forest Products Markets in the New
Millenium:Tropical Hardwoods
ECE Timber Committee Market Discussions
10 October 2000
S. Johnson, ITTO Secretariat
Trends in ECE imports
• Logs and sawnwood more or less stable, but main markets shifting (northern Europe down, southern Europe up)
• Plywood stable or increasing in most markets
• SPWP from tropical countries increasing in all markets
ECE Tropical Log Imports
2562
2041 2052
2764
2323 2400
2575
2062 2067
2783
2348
2417
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
ECE Tropical Sawnwood Imports
2436
18111992
25632306 2400
237
322323
355
3573602347
2165
2697
2954
26992796
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Vo
lum
e,
10
00
m3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
ECE Tropical Veneer Imports
366332 349
245 262 250
70 53
6261
65
385 409 407
313
329
322
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
ECE Tropical Plywood Imports
1439 1311 1347 1484 1397 1375
1320 1459 1396
1559 1680 1700
2891 2916 2883
3199 3245 3245
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
Volu
me,
100
0 m
3
Others
U.S.A.
EU
TOTAL
Tropical Timber Trade, US$billions
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000
(dashed line = estimate)
Primary Secondary
Main Asian Markets
• Japan housing starts stagnant at about 1.2 million last 3 years, total slightly up in first 8 months 2000 but wood houses down
• HQAL affecting market• Logs imports down about 8% this year,
sawn up about 5%, ply stable• China housing starts Jan-May up 40% on
1999, state bank mortgages +145% in 99, at least +100% in 2000
Supply situation
• Africa - Cameroon log ban, log supply shifting to Congo, CAR, Liberia, Gabon (?)
• ITTO assisting harmonizing of C&I, setting up of PAFC
Supply situation
• Asia - weakness of Euro hurting exporters to ECE
• Sabah ban on Selangan Batu exports • Sabah processing capacity about 7 times
long term sustainable cut• Malay log exports up 25% in 99• lots of (unsustainable?/illegal?) logs going
from Indonesia-Malaysia-China• Indonesia ply production likely to fall 0.5-
1.0 million m3 this year due to provincial unrest, log shortage
Supply situation
• Latin America - Brazil monitoring mahogany exports more closely, all exports must be harvested as per management plan
• Peru banned all exports of mahogany and cedar temporarily, situation unclear
Issues facing ITTO: Certification
• Auditing guidelines to be developed to complement ITTO C&I, will assist countries to implement
• Assisting Malaysia and Indonesia with NTCC and LEI schemes, Fiji and Ghana projects also funded
• Tropical countries not well served by currently available international certification schemes
Breakdown of FSC Certified Forests
73%
12%
4%
1%1%11%
10%
Americas AfricaAsia/Oceania/S.Africa Asia-PacificEurope Latin America/Caribbean
ALL(17.7 m ha)
TROPICAL(2.1 m ha)
Map of FSC Certified Forests
Tropical Forest Certification Issues
•costs of attaining SFM and carrying out certification higher than in non-tropical forests
•ODA, FDI and market access to help achieve tropical SFM still lacking
•“green premium” (and market niche(s)) for certified timber small compared to cost of SFM/certification
•certification of products arising from forest conversion/plantation establishment
•certification of substitutes/life cycle analysis
•increasing trend towards SPWP
Issues facing ITTO: Illegal Logging
• ITTO currently in negotiations with Indonesia, Malaysia and several African countries to address
• Need to distinguish between coordinated illegal felling for export, for domestic mills and for subsistence, different strategies needed for each
THE INTERNATIONAL TROPICAL TIMBER ORGANIZATION
www.itto.or.jp