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Pa t r i c k P l ö t z , Fr a u n h o f e r I S I , K a r l s r u h e

S Ü D H e i d e l b e r g , N o v e m b e r 2 0 1 1

ELECTRIC CARS – VEHICLES OF THE FUTURE?

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Myth: “E lec t r i c veh i c les a re use less – they can ’ t go fa r. ”

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Typical daily driving distances are short.

• Most (80%) of day-travels are shorter than 60 km.

• Few (8 %) of day-travels are longer than 130 km

Myth: “E lec t r i c veh i c les a re use less – they can ’ t go fa r. ”

Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI

Plug-in-HybridProperty Gasoline vehicle

3 minutes + 2 hours

> 700 km

3 minutes

50 + 600 kmRange

Refueling Duration

every day + When necessary

Every 2 weeksRefueling Frequency

Battery electric vehicle

0.5 - 8 hours

< 150 km

Every 3 days or 30% every day

Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances Electr ic vehic les

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Myth: “E lectr ic vehic les can help in tegrat ing renewable energ ies , but they need so much e lectr ic i ty . ”

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Take 1 Million electric vehicles,

• giving on average 10 kWh = 10 GWh = 10 minutes of the average German electricity need

• Loading with 3,7 kW each = 3,7 GW= 2.4% of installed German power (155 GW in 2009)

Electricity need of 1 million vehicles:

• Driving 14 300 km per year (German average) and using 16 kWh/100 km = 3 TWh/a = 0.5% of annual German electricity use

Large fleet of electric vehicles offers some power but small capacity

Myth: “E lectr ic vehic les can help in tegrat ing renewable energ ies , but they need so much e lectr ic i ty . ”

Source: BDEW, Fraunhofer ISIDrawing: Heyko Stöber

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Myth: “Electr ic vehic les need publ ic charging points .”

Click icon to add picture

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Myth: “Electr ic vehic les need publ ic charging points .”

Source: Mobilitätspanel, Fraunhofer ISI

Charging at home: cheap & easy

• The majority of car users has a fixed place for his/her car (either a garage or a place at home)

• Even in larger cities (>100.000 inhabitants) only some people (22% in Germany) have no fixed parking place

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0 4 8 12 16 20 24 28 32 36 40 44 48 52 56 60 64

Sh

are

of

veh

icle

s t

hat

can

be o

pera

ted

as b

att

ery

ele

ctr

ical

veh

icle

Battery capacity (in kWh)

At home, at work, and in public regular (3.7kW)

At home, at work, and in public threephase (11.1kW)

At home and at work threephase (11.1kW), in public high power charging (43.6kW)

Series12

At home and at work regular (3.7kW)

At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase (11.1kW)

At home regular (3.7kW), at work threephase (22.2kW)

At home and at work threephase (11.1kW)

At home and at work threephase (22.2kW)

Series13

Regular power outlet (230V, 16A, 3.7kW)

Threephase current (400V, 16A, 11.kW)

Threephase current (400V, 32A, 22.2kW)

24 kWh

+ in

pu

bli

c+

at

wo

rkA

t h

om

e

Plug-in-hybrid electric vehicles can also go long distances

To start a mass market, no expensive infrastructure needed

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Overview

Electric cars – vehicles of the future?

3 Past and Present of electric vehicles

4 The Future of eletric vehicles

5 Conclusion

2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles?

1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths

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A growing mobi l i ty demand faces l imited fossi le resources

Source: Shell, WBCSD

Growing demand for

oil cannot be covered

sustainably

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The EU‘s long term goal is to reduce GHG emissions by 80%

Power production and road transport have to become almost CO2-free

This is impossible with efficiency gains in combustion engines

New technologies and concepts are clearly needed.

Electric vehicles powered by renewable energies can contribute significantly

To achieve Europe‘s c l imate targets , a drast ic reduct ion in t ransport CO2-emiss ions is needed

Source: www.roadmap2050.eu

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Electric vehicles locally produce less noise and emissions

They create a calmer and cleaner local environment

But their production is very energy consuming

Electr ic vehicles can reduce emissions and noise in your local environment

BEV small

PHEV medium

ICE small

ICE medium

Diesel medium

0 50 100 150 200 250 300

electricty generation vehicle production

vehicle use fuel production

accidents noise

External and environmental costs

Electric vehicles

Source: Fraunhofer ISI

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Overview

Electric cars – vehicles of the future?

4 The Future of electric vehicles

5 Conclusion

1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3

Past and Present of electric vehicles:How do they work? What do they cost?

Do we need special charging stations?Are they “green”?

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The fi rst road vehicle achieving a speed of more than 100 km/h

The French electric vehicleLa jamais contente with 105 km/h in 1899

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Invention of electric vehicle 1834 Large market shares around 1900

Short History of electr ic vehicles

steam

electric

gasoline

0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800

american car production by 1900

number of units

First hybrid by Ferdinand Porsche in 1899

Gasoline vehicles cheaper and faster from 1920 until today

Renewed interest in 1980s after oil crises

Today‘s batteries allow longer ranges

Thomas Edison with electric car in 1913Sources: Chan 2007, wikipedia

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motorcycles3,83 Mio.7,52%

Busses76 Tsd. 0,15%

trucks4,43 Mio.8,71%

Others0,26 Mio. 0,52%

gasoline30,5 Mio.60,0%

Diesel11,3 Mio.22,14%

Gas490 Tsd.0,96% Electric2,3 Tsd.0,005% Hybrid 40 Tsd. 0,073%

80 % of vehicles are passenger cars: 30 million gasoline, 11 million diesel

Currently, 2300 Electric vehicles and 40,000 hybrids

German vehicle stock in 2011

Vehicles in Germany

Source: Kraftfahrtbundesamt (2011),

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How does an electr ic vehicle work?

Battery electric vehicle: Small number of main components:

• Electric motor

• Large battery

• AC/DC converter

• Electronics...

No oil or fuel tank No exhaust system (tail pipe etc.) Hybrid electric vehicle:

• Small combustion engine

• Small fuel tank

• Electronics

Fuel cell electric vehicle has an additional tank and fuel cell

Electric vehicle ≈ several wheels and a plug Source: Bosch AG

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The energy dens i ty o f current bat ter ies sets l imi ts to the use o f e lec t r i c veh ic les

Quelle: GM, 2009

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A few manufacturers are already producing electric vehicles

Electr ic vehicles produced in 2010

Numbers are really tiny compared to world vehicle production of 78 million units in 2010

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Alternative fuel vehicles already available or announced for 2011 – 2014 by major manufacturers in the German market

When can we buy eletcr ic vehicles?

Manufacturer Hybrid Gas-hybrid

Plug-in Hybrid

Battery electric

Fuel cell vehicle

Total

MERCEDES5 1 4 1 11

TOYOTA 3 1 2 3 9VW 3 5 8RENAULT

7 7BMW 3 1 2 6HYUNDAI

1 1 1 1 4CITROEN 2 1 3PEUGEOT

1 2 3AUDI 1 2 3NISSAN 2 1 3Total 20 2 5 29 2 57

Simple hybrids already

availableOnly some plug-in

hybrids announced

Many battery electric vehicles

underway

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Electr ic vehicles come in a broad variety

Plug-in hybrid passenger car

Small electric vehicles

Plug-in hybrid LDV

Battery LDVs

Elektroroller

Sports cars

today

soon

Off-road duty vehicle

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Example for the total life cycle costs for a battery electric vehicle with average annual German driving range (14000 km, no tax, 2015):

Long driving distances required to make BEVs economically attractive Battery and fuel costs are the main drivers for total cost of ownership (TCO)

How much does an electr ic vehicle cost?

Quelle: Fraunhofer ISI

Fuel

Vehicle purchase

Battery costs

Maintenance

Cost

s in

cent

per

kilo

mete

r

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Political actions:

Non-financial incentives

Support by the German government on electr ic mobi l i ty

No direct purchase support Research funding: 2 million € No car tax (below 50 gCO2/km) low tax for commercial cars Target: 10% of governmental vehicles

Use of bus lanes for EVs Free city entry

1 million

by 2020

Quelle: Regierungsprogramm Elektromobilität 2011

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In the beginning, electr ic vehicles wi l l mainly target a niche market

Share of City Traffic

5,000

7,500

10,000

12,500

15,000

17,500

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

An

nu

al M

ileag

e (

in k

m)

Selection of Propulsion Technology - 2015(in relation to mileage and share of city traffic)

EVs only in some segments profitable

Attractive first user segments– Commuters– Second-car

users– Full time

employees from areas with less than 100,000 inhab.

Potential of up to 4% of car users (2015) in existing infrastructure - equivalent to 1.6 mn.

Battery ElectricVehicle

Internal CombustionEngine

Source: Own calculations

Trip LengthRestrictions

UtilizationRestrictions

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EVs are the most effi cient propuls ion technology and can reduce CO 2 -emiss ions in t ransport

Note: BEV: Battery Electric Vehicle; RME: Raps-Methyl-EsterSource: Own calculations and LBST

Efficiency and Emissions of Different Propulsion Technologies

Em

issio

ns in

GH

G-E

qu

ivale

nts

(in

g/k

m)

Efficiency (Well-to-Wheel Analysis)0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

0

50

100

250

300

350

150

200

Coal-to-Liquid

ICE

Hydrogen Fuel Cell

Bio-diesel (RME)

Biofuels

Less e

mis

sio

ns

More efficient

Battery Electric Vehicle(Wind)

Plug-In Hybrid

(EU mix)

BEV(EU mix) Plug-In Hybrid

(Wind)

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How „green“ are electr ic vehicles?

Electricity generation

Vehicle production

Battery production

Additional battery

Electric vehicles

Conventionalvehicles

GHG potential in tons CO2e

The production of batteries for electric vehicles is very energy intense

Depending on the electricity used, additional CO2 emissions from electricity generation need to be taken into account

With electricity from renewable sources drastic reduction of CO2 emissions are possible

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Overview

Electric cars – vehicles of the future?

4 The Future of electric vehicles

5 Conclusion

1 Introduction: Electric vehicle myths 2 Motivation: Do we need electric vehicles? 3

Past and Present of electric vehicles:How do they work? What do they cost?

Do we need special charging stations?Are they “green”?

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2020 2030 20400

5000000

10000000

15000000

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

Pluralism

Szenarios I/IV

Referenzszenario

Energiekonzept

Dominance

5%

50%

45%

Electric vehicles expected in 2020 (NPE, 2011)

Nutzfahrzeuge

PHEV

BEV

Market scenarios for Germany

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The future of alternative fuels – various technologies for diff erent appl ications

high

distance

Vehicle weight

low

Short trips (city) Long trips (highway)

City LDVs

Electro cycle

2nd car

Long range public transportPublic

transport

transportation

Everyday use

acceptance

Battery vehicle

Plug-in hybrids

Fuel cell vehicles

2nd generation biofuels

safety

Energy density

Economy of fuel

challenges

Economy of propulsion system

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Click icon to add picture

Depending on market penetration, charging infrastructure has to change

TimeCharging

InfrastructureInnovators´

Market

Niche Market(e.g. commuters, business clients)

MarketPenetration

Mass Market

Grid Integration

Control Time-of-use

rates Bi-directional

connection

Demand Side Management (Dynamic rates)

System Services Load shift and

active load leveling

Load shift (negative supply of balancing power)

Infrastructure

Norms and standards

Mainly private infrastructure

Selective public infrastructure to support early adoption

Smart Grids

Smart Metering Expansion of

semi- public charging infrastr.

Grid Integration with Increasing Market Penetration

Source: Own visualization

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Conclus ions

2How much do

electric vehicles cost?

They are more expensive to buy but cheaper to drive than current conventional vehicles

Special charging stations are required later

3 Are electric vehicle green?

Electric vehicles can significantly reduce global and local emissions, but only when charged from renewable energy sources

Their production is very energy intense

1 What are electric vehicles?

Electric vehicles use electric motors and batteries and/or fuel cells

Many forms of hybrid vehicles are possible

Are electric vehicles the vehicles of the

future?

They can play an important role in transport and in reduction of CO2 emissions

Other vehicle technologies can be become important too, especially fuel cell vehicles

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Special thanks to Martin Wietschel Fabian Kley Till Gnann Wolfgang Schade

Thank you for listening!

References:Biere, D.; Dallinger, D.; Wietschel, M.: Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer-von Elektrofahrzeugen,

Zeitschrift für Energiewirtschaft 02/2009, 173-183.

Wietschel, M., Kley, F. und Dallinger, D. : Eine Bewertung der Ladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge, Zeitschrift für die gesamte Wertschöpfungskette Automobilwirtschaft, Bd. 12 (3), S. 33–41.

Kley, F., Dallinger, D. und Wietschel, M. : Assessment of future charging infrastructure, International Advanced Mobility Forum, 9-10 März 2010, S. 1–7. Genf.

Kley, F., Entwicklung und Bewertung einer Strategie für den Aufbau einer Beladeinfrastruktur für Elektrofahrzeuge auf Basis des Fahrverhaltens. Dissertation . Karlsruhe, 2011.

Thank you