National Capitol Region HAZUS User Group Call

January 28, 2016 10:00 AM EST

Listen to the recording here to follow along with the presentation: http://www.freeconferencecalling.com/recordings/Recording.aspx?fileid=LAF3494_01282016070416378_1172299&bridge=697620&email=&accountid=1116753

NCR HUG Call Details Conference Call Details: 1. Dial-in: 1-302-202-1110 2. Conference code: 697620

Join the Meeting through Adobe Connect: (No Registration Required)Click here to access the Adobe Connect meeting

The call will be recorded and the audio will be combined with the presentation and sent out at the end of the call. The audio and presentation will also be made available on the following websites:

NCR HUG Use HAZUS page - http://www.usehazus.com/ncrhugNCR HUG LinkedIn page - http://www.linkedin.com/groups/National-Capitol-Region-HAZUS-User-4790251?trk=myg_ugrp_ovr

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Agenda• Welcome + Announcements

• The "Flood Risk" Awakens The Emergence of Hazus within the FEMA NFIP Program– Dr. Shane Parson, AECOM

• Group Discussion - Visualization of the Month: Future Conditions– We will be evaluating the quality of this visualization and existing best

practices for communicating future conditions.

• Request for Volunteers – Next NCR HUG Call

• Adjourn

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AnnouncementsUpcoming HAZUS Courses at EMI

The Emergency Management Institute (EMI) has the following HAZUS training course available:

E296 Application of Hazus-MH for Risk Assessment: March 21-24, 2016E313 Basic Hazus-MH: April 11-14, 2016E172 Hazus-MH for Flood: June 20-23 2016E176 Hazus-MH for Floodplain Managers: July 18-21, 2016E317 Comprehensive Data Management for Hazus-MH: August 29-September 1, 2016E179 Application of Hazus-MH for Disaster Operations: September 26-29, 2016

Please note that enrollment is closed for each course, 6 weeks prior to the course!• To apply for a HAZUS training course, please visit:

http://training.fema.gov/Apply/• To enroll, download the Admission Application or contact the • For further information on registration, please visit training.fema.gov/emiweb

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New Geospatial Resources & Natural hazard News. Ranked: Climate Change Prep in 6 U.S. Citieshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/climate-change-cities-how-prepared

What Taking the Temperature of 50 U.S. Cities Revealshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/heat-islands-study-cities-us-hottest-summer-winter

A Fix For Tokyo’s Oldest, Densest, Most Disaster-Prone Neighborhoodshttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/a-fix-for-tokyos-oldest-densest-most-disaster-prone-neighborhoods

Why New Orleans’ Katrina Evacuation Debacle Will Never Happen Againhttps://nextcity.org/daily/entry/new-orleans-evacuation-hurricane-katrina-will-never-happen-again

USDA – Forest Service Geospatial Training opportunities for February 2016 http://fsweb.geotraining.fs.fed.us/www/index.php

ArcGIS for Emergency Management Update - http://esriurl.com/EMnewInitial Damage Assessment Webinar - http://esriurl.com/DamageWebinar

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The "Flood Risk" AwakensThe Emergence of Hazuswithin the FEMA NFIP Program

Dr. Shane Parson, PE, CFM

January 28, 2016

Presentation TitlePresentation Sub-Title

Presenter’s Name

What is Flood Risk?

Since the 1960’s, FEMA has mapped and analyzed data to try and show the impacts from flooding.Paper maps, paper reports, digital maps, digital reports, and websites have all tried to explain FLOOD RISK.

But now, there is a NEW HOPE of not just making maps, but showing flood risk from Hazus. But what is FLOOD RISK and how have things changed from the 1960’s to 2015 to the future …

Agenda

Past: Flood Maps

Present: Flood Risk Products

Future: Future Conditions Flood Risk

Decide on methods to show flood risk

Make products to show flood risk

Address why products do not meet expectations

Episode I: The Flooding Menace

What is Flooding?

Overflow of water that submerges land which is usually dry

Flooding = impacts to people and property

Episode II: Attack of the FIRMs

What is Flood Mapping?

Flood Insurance Rate Maps (FIRMs) show the Special Flood Hazard Area designated by FEMA standards

Flood mapping = paper map to show where flooding happens

V Zone

Episode III: Revenge of the Data

Why is the Flood Mapping still Wrong?

Mapping is based on best available data and models FOR THE BUDGET AVAILABLE

Episode IV: A New Hope – Risk MAP

What is Flood Risk?

Floods damaging something of value

Episode V: The Data Strikes Back

How do we model Flood Risk?

GIS-based tools like Hazususing best available data

Automated Modeling Processes

1. Storm Event Analysis

2. Hydrology Analysis

3. Hydraulic Analysis4. Flood Boundary Analysis

Hazus Outputs

Methods and Tools must

not get frozen in time…

Episode VI: Return of the Risk

Why is Flood Risk Modeling still Wrong?

GIS-based tools like Hazususing best available data

The balancing act and managing expectations

How well is what is at

risk defined?

(Inventory)

How accurate is the loss estimation methodology?

How well is the hazard defined?

The challenge with homogenous census block analysis

–Flood Risk Assessment Data• 2010 HAZUS Average Annualized Loss (AAL) Study

Data• Refined HAZUS and Other Risk Analyses Data• Composite Data

HAZUS MH Flood Risk Assessment

Flood Risk Assessment Datasets

Seemed like a good idea

at the time…….

1. Jar Jar's the key to

all this, if we get Jar

Jar working. 'Cause

he's a funnier

character than we've

ever had in the movies.

– George Lucas (1999)

2. 2010 AAL Study

Episode VII: The “Real” Flood Risk Awakens

How is flood risk going to change in the future?

Always In Motion

The Future Is.

FEMA Technical Mapping Advisory Council (TMAC)

TMAC 2015 Annual Report

Recommendation No. 10: FEMA should transition from identifying the 1-percent-annual-chance floodplain and associated base flood elevation as the basis for insurance rating purposes to a structure-specific flood frequency determination and associated flood elevations.

TMAC 2015 Future Conditions Report

Future risk assessment should have

Climate change (Sea Level Rise and Riverine Impacts)

Population change (land use)

Scenario-based (with uncertainty)

Federal Flood Risk Management Standard (FFRMS) and EO 13690

EO 13690 establishes new construction elevation standard

– Climate-Informed Science Approach

– 100-year (1%-annual-chance) flood elevation plus freeboard of 2 or 3 feet (building criticality)

– 500-year (0.2%-annual-chance) flood elevation

Coastal Flood Modeling - Components

Coastal Flood Modeling - Approaches– “Bathtub” Methodology

Coastal Flood Modeling - Approaches– Model-based Methodology

non-linear effects

non-linear effects

Open Foundations = Wide Range of Flood Elevations

Closed Foundations = Limited Usage in Coastal Floodplains

Closed foundations are not recommended in Coastal A Zones and not allowed in Zone V

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How do we break this cycle:

Decide on methods to show flood risk

Make products to show flood risk

Address why products do not meet expectations

Measuring Historic andProbable Flood LossesCity of Baltimore, MARYLAND

Visualization of the Month:Communicating Future Conditions

Hurricane Isabel

Comparing Coastal Flood Extents

You are Here!

Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel + 3ft

You are Here!

Comparing Coastal Flood Extents

Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel + 3ft

Hurricane Isabel + 5ft

You are Here!

Comparing Coastal Flood Extents

Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel + 3ft

Hurricane Isabel + 5ft

Hurricane Isabel + 7ft

Comparing Coastal Flood Extents

You are Here!

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Effective FIRM

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 3ft

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 5ft

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –Isabel + 7ft

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

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Comparison of Coastal Losses –TS Sandy Forecast

Total Economic Loss –

You are Here!

in $1000

$0 - $45,000

$45,000 – $220,000$220,000 – $540,000

$540,000 - $4,100,000

Coastal Flood Results• Comparison of

Coastal Flood Losses• Structural (Count)• Shelter Needs (Individuals)• Debris Generation (trucks)• Essential Facilities

with loss of use (Count)

Coastal Flood Results• Comparison of

Flood Losses from Coastal events• Total Economic Loss

o Direct - Building Losso Indirect - Business Interruption

Hurricane Isabel

Hurricane Isabel + 3ft

Hurricane Isabel + 5ft

Hurricane Isabel + 7ft

Sandy Forecast

• Hurricane Isabel – 7.5 Ft of Storm surge

• TS Sandy – 10-12 Ft of Storm surge forecasted for MD in the Upper Chesapeake

• Worse case scenario• Destruction of the Baltimore

Harbor industry &maritime Industry,Core entertainment/shopping district, & Historic residential neighborhoods

TS Sandy Comparison to Hurricane Isabel

• 5X the number of structures destroyed

• $10.5 Bill more in total economic loss

Baltimore dodged a bullet.......This time

Hurricane Isabel

TS Sandy

Inundation Overlap

You are Here!

Thursday February 25, 2016 at 10:00 AM EST

Use the same number and conference code for each call:Call 1-302-202-1110 and enter this conference code # 697620

**Request volunteer for next month’s presentation• HAZUS / Risk Assessment project• HAZUS “How to” presentation

Meeting notes and an updated presentation with audio will be sent out after this call

Adjourn

Next Call

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