© Crown copyright Met Office M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A. Boone, M.Ek and other panel members...
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Transcript of © Crown copyright Met Office M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A. Boone, M.Ek and other panel members...
© Crown copyright Met Office
M. J. Best, J. Santanello, A. Boone, M.Ek and other panel members
GEWEX Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)WGNE annual meeting
March 2014
© Crown copyright Met Office
The aim of GLASS is to promote community activities that improve:
1. our best estimates and the model representation of state variables
1. our understanding of land/atmosphere feedbacks
1. our understanding of the role of land surface in predictability.
Global Land Atmosphere System Study (GLASS)
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Cross-Cutting projects/actions:GLACE2 – Links to S2S (land sfc adding to predictability)LUCID2 – Links to iLeaps ALMIP2 – Links to GHP DICE – Links to GASSPLUMBER – Links to GHP
Launching in next 12 months:GSWP3 – Links to carbon community (iLEAPS)PILDAS – Links to WGNE
Being plannedLoCo SGP testbed...GABLS4-DICE-over-ICE? (joint GASS-GLASS)
GLASS Project Updates :
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© Crown copyright Met Office
• Provide a comprehensive set of land surface states for the period including entire 20th century and recent years (~1901 – recent) that can serve as a long-term land surface reanalysis suite.
• Include carbon models, to explore/attribute a possible carbon-related effect or changes in Hydro-Energy-Eco functioning.
• Explore uncertainties of input datasets and their propagation through different schemes (LSMs) and super-ensembles (multi-input and multi- model, 1979 - present).
• Uncertainty in future land surface states (multi-GCMs and scenarios, 2000 - 2100)
• Build a robust evaluation framework through component-wise verification (e.g. routing scheme for a validation of discharge (flux); GRACE for a validation of terrestrial water storage variation (storage))
• Includes engagement of the carbon community and inclusion of a suite of LSMs in varying hydrological and carbon treatments.
Follow up to GSWP2 (1986-1995) : NEW aspects :
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GSWP-3:Long term retrospective Exp
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Enable better communication among developers of land data assimilation systems (LDAS)
Develop and test a framework for LDAS comparison and evaluation Compare land assimilation methods (EnKF, EKF...). Conduct sensitivity studies of assimialtion input parameters (such as model and observation errors). Provide guidance and priorities for future land assimilation research and applications
Ultimately, produce enhanced global datasets of land surface fields
Project for the Intercomparison of Land Data Assimilation Systems (PILDAS):
Objectives
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PILDAS : setup
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The development of a beta version of the Protocol for theAnalysis of Land Surface Models (PALS, http://pals.unsw.edu. au) is underway.
• PALS is a web application for evaluating land surfacemodels and the observed data sets used to test them (e.g.FLUXNET, GHP).
• The PALS website is designed to analyze in a standardway uploaded single site model simulations with FLUXNETand other observations.
• A related activity is that of a joint GHP-GLASS project todemonstrate benchmarking approaches using PALS, andestablishing empirical benchmarks in PALS from which toevaluate a suite of models.
PALS-current & perspectives
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PLUMBER sites
E E
E
D
B
B
DGM GGC
WS
P
E – Evergreen NeedleleafB – Evergreen BroadleafD – Deciduous Broadleaf
W – Woody SavannaS – SavannaP – Permanent Wetlands
W
EE BD
M – Mixed ForestG - GrasslandC – Cropland
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Rankings relative to benchmarks
Mean Bias Error MBE
Normalised Mean Error NME
Standard Deviation sd
Correlation coefficient r
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Range of Sites for Radiation
Hyytiala Mopane
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Range of Sites for Precipitation
Kruger Palang
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GLACE-CMIP5
Aims:
Investigate effects of changes in soil moisture content and soil moisture-climate coupling for future climate projections
• Impacts on regional climate (temperature extremes, precipitation)
• Shifts in hot spots of soil moisture-atmosphere coupling
• Impacts on global carbon cycle
• Interactions with land use changes
16
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Experimental set-up
Soil moisture (point in Central Europe)
GLACE-CMIP5 investigates the impact of decadal changes in soil moisture on climate
(Focus on climate-change projections ≠ GLACE-1 and GLACE-2: Focus on sub-seasonal and seasonal forecasting)
17
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• Design: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne), KNMI (Bart van den Hurk)• Analysis: ETH Zurich (Sonia Seneviratne, Micah Wilhelm, Tanja
Stanelle)• MPI-ESM: Stefan Hagemann, Victor Brovkin, Martin Claussen• CESM: Dave Lawrence, Matthew Higgins• EC-Earth: Arndt Meier, Ben Smith, Markku Rummukainen,
Bart van den Hurk• GFDL: Alexis Berg, Sergey Malyshev, Kirsten Findell • IPSL: Frederique Cheruy, Agnès Ducharne, Joséfine Ghattas,
Jean-Louis Dufresne• Additional interested participants: Paul Dirmeyer, Pierre
Friedlingstein, Randy Koster, Julia Pongratz
18S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5
Participating groups
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~18-25% of climate change signal in Mediterranean region due to soil moisture-temperature feedbacks
19S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5
Temperature impacts
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Effects on precipitation are also found, especially in JJA & NHNoisier than for temperature (see DJF)Overall: drier future soils lead to reduced precipitationIn absolute terms [mm/d]: larger for precipitation extremes than mean precipitation
20S.I. Seneviratne, ETH Zurich / GLACE-CMIP5
Precipitation impacts
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GLACE “Hotspot” Regions
Koster et al., 2004. Science, 305, 1138-1140
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Outline of DICE(DIurnal Cycle Experiment)
• These stages test:
LSM and SCM stand-alone performance against observations (stage 1)
What is the impact of coupling? (stage 2)
How sensitive are different LSM and SCM to variations in forcing? (stage 3)
3a
3b
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Re-visiting GABLS-2
• CASES-99 campaign
• Leon, near Witchita, Kansas. 37o N, -96o E
• Relatively flat
• Prairie grassland
• 1900 UTC 23 Oct 1999 – 1900 UTC 26 Oct 1999
• Clear skies
No cloud
No precip
• Different nocturnal BL stability:
i. Intermittant
ii. Turbulent
iii. RadiativeCourtesy of Joan Cuxart
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ModelsModel Contact
scientistInstitute Stages
submittedLevels Sensitivity
testsArome Eric Bazille Meteo France All 60/70 resolution
Arpege Eric Bazille Meteo France All 60/70 resolution
ECEARTH Reinder Ronda Wageningen SCM only 91 LAI
GDPS3.0 Ayrton Zadra CMC All 79
GFDL Sergey Malyshev Princeton All 24
GISS_E2 Ann Fridlind, Andy Ackerman
GISS All 40
IFS/HTESSEL Irina Sandu, Gianpaolo Balsamo
ECMWF All 137 LAI
MESO_NH Maria Jimenez UIB All 85 Bare soil
UM/JULES Adrian Lock, Martin Best
Met Office All 70 Vegetation
WRF-NOAH Weiguo Wang NUIST All 60 Lots!
WRF Wayne Angevine NOAA ? 119 PBL scheme
CAM5, CLM4 David Lawrence NCAR 1a, 1b ?
PBCM Pierre Gentine Columbia Not yet
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Stage 1aSurface fluxes from 55m-forced LSM
Not all LSM provided u*
Coloured by LSM
H
LE
U*
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Stage 1bNear surface evolution
20m 55m
θ
q
θ
q
RH RH
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• More spread between models in stage 2
• Interesting lack of spread within (some) models
Stage 1 vs 2Bulk PBL sensitivity
Stage 1b Stage 2
θ
q
θ
q
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Stage 3a: U* from SCMs’ atmospheric forcing
Coloured by SCM forcing
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Stage 3b Daytime PBL sensitivity for 25th Octθ q
hPBL