© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE...

© Crown copyright Met Office

WGNE activities and plansAndy Brown and Christian Jakob

WGNE co-chairs


Liaison


• WWRP: YOTC/MJO, grey-zone project with Mesoscale WG, Joint Working Group on Verification, Polar and subseasonal-seasonal projects

• THORPEX: PDP workshops, DAOS

• WGCM : Transpose-AMIP, metrics, model errors

• GEWEX (GASS(GCSS, GABLS), GLASS): MJO, grey-zone, ideas to develop coupled land surface – boundary layer study

• SPARC and WGSIP: impact of stratosphere on NWP?

• Operational centre reports and progress reviews


Co-ordinated experiments and projects


• Transpose-AMIP GOOD PROGRESS

• SURFA LIMITED PROGRESS

• Cloudy-radiance DONE

• Grey-zone GOOD PROGRESS

• Verification

• NWP performance (eg TCs, precipitation, issues with verification against analysis) ONGOING

• Polar (CBS-style; ConcordIASI intercomparsion) NEW

• Climate metrics GOOD PROGRESS

• Effects of aerosol on NWP, seasonal REVIEW EVIDENCE NEXT YEAR


Transpose-AMIP: testing climate models in NWP mode

• Core experiment is to run 64 hindcasts, each 5 days long, initialised from ECMWF YOTC analysis.

• Optional experiment to repeat the same set of hindcasts with NASA MERRA re-analysis or own analysis.

• The hindcasts spread through the annual and diurnal cycles and chosen to tie in with YOTC and coincide with some of the IOPs in:

• VOCALS (SE Pacific stratocumulus)• AMY (Asian monsoon)• T-PARC (mid-latitude Pacific)

© Crown copyright Met Officewww.transpose-amip.info

Status of experiments:

Expt pledged

Expt run Data converted

Data on ESG

EC-Earth (Frank Selten) Awaiting CMIP5 runs

IPSL (Sandrine Bony/Solange Fermepin) Technical

issues

Met Office (Keith Williams) Meteo France (Michel Deque) Awaiting

ESG upload

MIROC (Masahiro Watanabe) Awaiting ESG upload

MPI (Bjorn Stevens) MRI (Tomoaki Ose) Awaiting

CMIP5 runs

NCAR (David Williamson/Brian Medeiros) Awaiting

CMIP5 runs

© Crown copyright Met Office www.transpose-amip.info

Proposed diagnostic subprojects

• MJO dynamics in the Transpose-AMIP II hindcasts: (PI: Mitch Moncrieff)

• Water budget analysis (PI: Gill Martin)

• Comparison of methodologies (initial tendency using own analysis vs 5-day forecast using alien analysis) (PI: Mark Rodwell)

• Cloud regimes (PI: Keith Williams)

• Intense extra-tropical windstorms (PI: Peter Knippertz)

• Relationship between short and long timescale model errors (PI: Shaocheng Xie)

• Regional investigation into model tendencies (PI: TBD)

• VOCALS analysis (PI: TBD)

• 2009 SE Asian monsoon analysis (PI: TBD)

• More desirable

• Real evidence at WGNE of some centres getting real value from examination of errors at different timescales


SURFA

• Comparison of NWP surface flux data with observational products

• Real-time provision of ECMWF and DWD data for several years

• Within last year, JMA, Meteo-France data added for 2008 and 2009

Ge Peng et al, GRL submitted


Planned comparison of models with buoy and cruise flux data (Chris Fairall)

• STRATUS/DART 2 buoys, Chilean coast (+ cruise data)

• NTAS N. Atlantic Trade wind (+cruises planned)

• WHOTS Hawaii (+cruises planned)

• KEO Kuroshio Extension

• PAPA NW Pacific

How to invigorate / co-ordinate community efforts more widely on

use of ocean surface flux data to evaluate models (NWP as well as climate)?


Grey zone project


How to parametrize physical processes in the “grey-zone” (1-10km)?

• Of interest to

• Operational mesoscale NWP

• Many already running at resolutions of a few km but room for more systematic testing to complement existing assessments of parametrization choices?

• Future global models

• What to do as global models enter this range?

• Regional climate models


Proposed case: cold-air outbreak

• Designed to be relevant to and to engage as broad a range of communities as possible

• Mesoscale modellers

• Global modellers

• LES/CRM/parametrization development community (GCSS)

• Case to be run across whole range of resolutions (from convection resolved to fully parametrized)

• Back diagnose fluxes at different resolutions from high resolution ‘truth’

• Idealized case with periodic boundary conditions

• Parallel inflow-outflow option for mesoscale models for which the above is difficult

© Crown copyright Met Office© Crown copyright Met Office

1.5 km Global Ceres MODIS


Ctrl Mod BL

ObsMod BLCtrl

Change to inhibit cumulus

convection (in favour of

turbulent mixing) when

layer above LCL

sufficiently sheared


Effect of mixing change on surface SW bias in climate model

NEW-OLD

OLD Error map New Error map

The impact is more marked at short ranges (12hr vs 48h)

Scores wrt own analysis better than wrt independent analysis

green : own analysis

Pink : ECMWF analysis

Blue : radiosondes


Workshops, publications, meetings


WGNE-THORPEX PDP

Joint expert meeting on “Diagnosis of Forecast Errors” held in Zurich, July 2010

State of the art models still suffer from substantial errors

Diagnostic work (+dynamical expertize) has potential to inform developers at process level to guide development

Future activities on application of diagnostic techniques to monsoon problems and cyclonic systems

ECMWF/Met Office working together on monsoon and planning to extend invitation, through WGNE, for input from other centres when work sufficiently mature

WGNE/PDP/ECMWF workshop on model error, June 2011

Need more fundamental research into stochastic physics and linking of that community to WGNE/GASS projects (e.g. grey zone)


Other forthcoming meetings

Physics of weather/climate models (JPL, Spring 2012)

With WWRP, WCRP partners

Ocean coupling (Washington, Autumn 2012)

Joint workshop with GODAE/OceanView to look at current knowledge of pros/cons of ocean coupling for NWP. Also use of short range coupled model errors to understand longer-range ones

Annual WGNE meeting (Toulouse, Autumn 2012)

WGNE systematic errors meeting (Exeter, Spring 2013)

Annual WGNE meeting (Melbourne, Autumn 2013)

Aerosols for NWP?


Coupled model DJF bias at day 30

GloSea4 seasonal DJF bias

Next step: use of short-range coupled model errors to inform climate model development

Coupled model DJF bias at day 4


Summary

WGNE hosts a wide range of activities in support of model evaluation and development.

Enhanced collaboration with WWRP/THORPEX.

Meso-scale group, THORPEX PDP and DAOS, YOTC, JWGV, ...

Enhanced links within WCRP (SPARC, WGCM, WGSIP)

Model and DA development remains at the heart of better forecasts at all ranges and needs to remain a high priority!


Membership changes

• New members

• Julio Bacmeister

• Saulo Freitas

• Jean-Noel Thepaut

• Ayrton Zadra

• (Ex-officio) WWRP Mesoscale WG Chair (Jeanette Onvlee)


Questions?

© Crown copyright Met Office WGNE activities and plans Andy Brown and Christian Jakob WGNE...

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