© Copyright 2012 ECCO International, Inc. tm Technical Briefing for Lawrence Berkeley National...

© Copyright 2012 ECCO International, Inc.

tm

Technical Briefing for Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

8/31/2012


History of ColorPower

• MIT CSAIL• ZOME Energy Networks• BBN Technologies• ECCO International• ColorPower Center


Challenge

• Future retail utilities must be able to effectively manage demand fulfillment at the margin– Defer consumption– Pull forward consumption– Cancel uneconomic consumption (in

customers’ best interest!)

• Problem: Inadequate coordination between the grid and end user devices


Economists vs. Customers

Microeconomics View

• Customers can be modeled as rational marginal demand functions for a commodity

• Customers can be modeled as virtual power plants

• Customers need to be sent price signals to modify their behavior

Customer View

• I do not have a marginal demand for power, I want reliable service

• I am not a virtual power plant

• I don’t want price volatility risk or to do laundry at midnight


Retail Power Is a Service

• Not a hot concert ticket• Not a basket of commodity electrons

• Customers prefer to buy power as a service, not a commodity– Just like many other service industries

• Congestion pricing is not the typical way service demand peaking issues are solved


Survey of Service Peak Demand Control Paradigms

Industry Process/Technology

Various (e.g. manufacturing) “First Come First Serve” / Backlog Queue

Hospitals “Most Urgent First” / Waiting Room

Road Transportation “Alternating Access” / Traffic Light

General Digital Communications “Best Effort Transport” / TCP/IP

Cellular Automatic Protocol / CDMA

Cable Networking Automatic Protocol / DOCSIS

DSL Automatic Protocol / ATM

Electric Power - Today Free-for-All / Circuit Breaker

Electric Power – Future Consensus Huge Real-time Auction / Smart Grid


HOW MUCH IS THIS POWER WORTH TO YOU NOW?

HOW ABOUT NOW?

HOW ABOUT NOW?

SORRY YOU WERE JUST OUTBID BY R1CH_P0WRHAWG

YOUR POWER HAS MOVED TO A PLACE WHERE IT IS MORE APPRECIATED

[POWER OFF] THE GOOD NEWS IS YOU HAVE NOW SAVED 26 OPEN SODA CANS WORTH OF CO2 EMISSIONS

Technology As Auction Enabler


FrigidTrader 3000Now, with high beta

coefficient strategies for those with appetites for high risk/reward energy

trading! Unlike cheap knock-offs, this one detects

when a seller is trying to walk up the clearing price

and refuses to take the bait. Cools your food and

integrated supercomputer simultaneously. Icemaker

extra.

Smart Appliance: Energy Efficient or Trading System?


WE’LL PAY YOU TO TAKE THESE PEANUTS AWAY

PEANUTS ARE VERY EXPENSIVE RIGHT NOW

The Smart Grid

The Smart Grid

Price Signal Smart Appliance/EV Stampedes

GOOD FOR SPECULATORSBAD FOR CONGESTION CONTROL

Retail Price Volatility: Be Careful What You Wish For

CATASTROPHIC FOR SYSTEM RELIABILITY

WIDE-SCALE PRICE VOLATILITY:


Human-Designed Self-Organizing Congestion Management Systems

Natural Self-Organizing Swarm Systems

Social InsectsBacteria Colonies Flocks & SchoolsNeural Networks

Queue Formation

TrafficSignals

Ethernet (CSMA/CD)

WiFi(CSMA/CA)

ColorPower(AFEM)

Cooperative Control Systems

Internet(TCP/IP)


Natural Adaptive Feedback Systems

• Bees maintain a constant hive temperature, set by instinctive hive “programming”– 35° C to produce foragers– 34° C to produce housekeepers

SUN

WIND

CREATE BREEZE

CREATE HEAT

HEAT COOL

COOL HEAT

TEMPERATURE SETTING

ADAPTIVEFEEDBACK

LOOP


• Increases road capacity by order of magnitude without building more lanes!

• Fairly distributes road access to users

• When coupled with cooperative drivers, self-organized congestion control system

• Increases transportation system utilization: higher efficiency

Engineered Self-Organization: The Traffic Light

Technical note: Roundabouts are even better than traffic lights!


Introducing ColorPower

A Distributed

Self-Organizing

Stochastic

QoS-Oriented

Power Load Balancing Protocol


ColorPower Outsources Demand Response to the Appliance Swarms

Humans: Always In Control

Privacy Respected

ColorPower Appliance Priorities1. Obey Your Humans’ Preferences2. Donate Flexibility to Power Grid

Smart Grid: Coordinates Orderly Power

Access For Flexible Appliances & Machines

Invisible to Humans

Flexible

Emergency

Not Flexible


A: ColorPower: Self-Identification of Flexible Demand

Leaf Button: On=Flexible

Green = Price SensitiveYellow = Reliability ResponsiveRed = Opt Out

Cloud Software With More Options


Turn Off

Resource Tier 500

Resource Tier 499

Resource Tier 1

Resource Tier 5

Resource Tier -5

Resource Tier -1

Resource Tier -499

Resource Tier -500

Device Tiers

More Demand

Less Demand

No Feedback

Pool Pump

Run Now

Charge

Discharge Battery

Generator On

EV

Stay under 6kW

Facility Management

-3 degrees

Thermostat

-6 degrees

SolarExport Power

Default Tier Assignment Via

Color/Device Type

Measuring Demand Backlog


Tiered Aggregations

Pool Pumps - Green

HVACs - Green

Misc. Flex - Green

Pool Pumps - Yellow

HVACs - Yellow

Misc. Flex - Yellow

Battery Storage

Night Run Dishwashers

Emergency Rationing

Sheddable LoadResources

Dispatchable LoadResources

Emergency Dispatchable Load

No Inconvenience

Emergency Storage

Emergency Load Dumping

Major Inconvenience

Major Inconvenience


• Groups and Individual Devices Act Randomly—But *Precisely in Aggregate*

• Feedback loop recruits resources until demand target satisfied

DEMAND CLOUD TIER

New Demand Target -50MW

DEMAND REPORT:ON: 2034OFF: 3423SHED: 1276NOSHED: 4322

SYSTEM STATE:NEED -3.4% TOTAL DEMAND RELIEF

ADAPTIVE FEEDBACK LOOP

ColorPower Stochastic Swarm Control

Groups and Individual Devices

Local Probabilistic Cooperation Calculation


Locational x Program Control

Pool Pumps - Green

HVACs - Green

Misc. Flex - Green

Pool Pumps - Yellow

HVACs - Yellow

Misc. Flex - Yellow

Battery Storage


Emergency Rationing


Emergency Storage


Pool Pumps - Green

HVACs - Green

Misc. Flex - Green

Pool Pumps - Yellow

HVACs - Yellow

Misc. Flex - Yellow

Battery Storage


Emergency Rationing


Emergency Storage


Pool Pumps - Green

HVACs - Green

Misc. Flex - Green

Pool Pumps - Yellow

HVACs - Yellow

Misc. Flex - Yellow

Battery Storage


Emergency Rationing


Emergency Storage


Pool Pumps - Green

HVACs - Green

Misc. Flex - Green

Pool Pumps - Yellow

HVACs - Yellow

Misc. Flex - Yellow

Battery Storage


Emergency Rationing


Emergency Storage


Locational Programs Participants


Price signals to consumers from markets?ColorPower can send demand signals from consumers to markets.

Demand Signals To Markets


UTILIZE IDLE CAPACITY

STAY WITHIN CAPACITY LIMITS

Flexible Load Shaping


More Flexible Than Price Signals

Pre-Configured RulesBalance Priorities

Across the System

Customers First!


ColorPower ™ Algorithm

Challenge: fast, private, robust, non-intrusiveApproach: randomized distributed control

Aggregate flexibility information to shared modelDisseminate control signals Local decision; coin-flip for fractional colorWeight for availability, over-damped control

Control problem: long timeouts on state changes

23


ColorPower State Transitions

• (E)nabled vs. (D)isabled• (R)efractory vs. (F)lexible


ColorPower ™ State Transitions

The evolution of each device is modeled like a modified Markov process

In each round devices in state EF randomly switch off to state DR

Once in DR device waits for certain rounds before transitions to state DF; the waiting time is a fixed number PLUS a uniform random addition to feather the distribution (so not many devices switch states at once)

The other two distributions are complementary25


Formal Control Problem

For each ColorPower client, set pon, poff for each device group, such that the total enabled power in s(t) tracks g(t)


Formal Control Problem

The control problem is to set the transition probabilities such that the total Enabled Demand tracks the target as closely as possible, subject to the constraints

Device with lower numbered colors are shut off firstIf a color has devices that are Enabled and

Disabled, then every device is equally likely to be disabled

No device is unfairly burdened by its initial bad luck in becoming Disabled


Constraints• Goal/Forecast tracking: shape power demand

• Color priority: respect user preferences

• Fairness: no devices are favored

• Cycling: don’t keep the same devices off


Controller Design Issues

It is possible that not all constraints can be satisfied; some of them are more important than others

Customer preferences are the most important onesGoal tracking is the second most importantLeast important is the Cycling constraintThe Fairness constraint is the easiest to satisfy (simply

the same stochastic algorithm on all clients is executed)

We view the controller as having a “budget” of flexibility to spend with each color offering up to |EF|I of potential reduction in demand


Controller Design Issues

Flexibility builds up as Refractory devices finish their time outs and move to the Flexible state

The controller is formulated as a cascade of priorities of how to spend the “Flexibility budget” indicated by the state s(t)

As the controller considers each constraint in turn, it allocates flexibility to satisfy that constraint (as much as possible)

Then it attempts to satisfy the rest of the constraints with whatever flexibility remains unallocated

Any unallocated flexibility is allowed to accumulate as a reserve improving future controllability


Control Example: Hot Summer Day

Flex

Emergency

Inflexible


Control Example: Emergency Response

Flex

Emergency

Inflexible


Approach Downstream Upstream Payload Size

Traditional XML Cmd/Ack Control

Ω(n+x) Ω(n+x) Large XML document

ColorPower Probabilistic Control

Ω(1) Ω(log n) Small datagrams

Algorithmic Complexity & Bandwidth Usage

ColorPower is computationally trivial—no supercomputers required

ColorPower requires an average bandwidth of 100 bytes per second per device.

Trivial for modern broadband connections

Does require massively parallel datagram traffic

Resource Requirements


Consumer Privacy

• Devices randomly and respond anonymously using local situational info + global system state info

• Load reports are anonymous and aggregatable

• 2-way anonymous information exchange


• No Infrastructure Targeting– Controllers Cannot Directly

Contact Clients– Each Client Randomly

Makes Its Own Choices

• No Wide-Area Shutdowns– Clients Ignore Unreasonable

System State Reports

• Controllers Partitioned & Firewalled

Internal Saboteur/ External Hacker

ColorPower Probabilistic

Broadcast

No Direct Attack Vectors?

Intrinsic Security Hardening


OpenADR

• ColorPower can act as a VEN aggregating small loads

• ColorPower can act as a DRAS


Collaboration

• ColorPower needs– Research collaboration– Standardization


Thank You

• To learn more, see • http://www.colorpower.org

• To help bring about this future, please contact

• sflorek at colorpower.org

http://www.colorpower.org/

© Copyright 2012 ECCO International, Inc. tm Technical Briefing for Lawrence Berkeley National...

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