Возможности Казахстана на урановом рынке

www.nukeminc.comcopyright by NUKEM IncKazakhstan-US Investment Forum 2011 Slide 1November 2011

Kazakhstan Uranium Marketing Opportunities

Jeffrey R. Faul, President and CEO, NUKEM, Inc

Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York, November 2011

www.nukemgroup.comcopyright by NUKEM Inc.Kazakhstan-US Investment Forum, New York Slide 2November 2011

NUKEM At-A-Glance

•World’s largest nuclear fuel trader

•50 Years of global nuclear fuel supply

•Over 15 million pounds U3O8 annually

•Supply arrangements through 2022

•Marketing partner to Kazakhstan

uranium industry since 1992

•Important supply relationships with

Tenex (Russia) and NMMC (Uzbekistan)


Kazakhstan’s Uranium Production:

Up, Up and Up

2011


Global Uranium Production by Country, 2001 vs 2011

Sources: EIA for US and Euratom

Annual Report for EU

Canada 34%

Australia 21%

Niger 8%

Russia 7%

Namibia 6%

Kazakhstan 6%

Uzbekistan 5%

Others 13%

Global Produc on Shares 2001

Canada 16%

Australia 11%

Niger 8%

Russia 7%

Namibia 7%

Kazakhstan 36%

Uzbekistan 4%

Others 11%

Global Produc on Shares 2011 (est)


Major Market Opportunities

Where are the largest markets for Kazakhstan’s uranium?

• Far East?

• Europe?

• USA?


Chinese Puzzle: How Much Will They Buy Now?

0

2000

4000

6000

8000

10000

12000

14000

16000

18000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2016 2018 2019 2020

Mert

ic T

on

nes

Ura

niu

m

China's Rising Reactor Needs

Source: WNA 2011


China Supply and Demand

Basic and Future Supplies – Best Estimate

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019

Year

AREVA NP

Areva NC

Paladin

KazAtomProm

Cameco

Current Basic Supply

Demand

Upper Case

Ref Case

Lower Case

t U

Sources:

Demand: WNA 2011

Supply: NUKEM 2011 & Other Sources

www.nukeminc.comcopyright by NUKEM IncKazakhstan-US Investment Forum Nov 2011 Slide 8November 2011

Kazakhstan Already Dominant in China

49% of Semizbai JV held by CGNPC (China Guongdong Nuc. Pwr.

Corp.)

49% of Zhalpak JV held by CNNC (China National Nuclear Corp.)

Combined production when in full production: 2,250 tU/per year

Chinese “equity share”: Approx 1,100 tU per year, but all sold to

China

Term contract for 24,200 tU signed with CGNPC 2008-2020

Approx. 2,400 tU per year to 2020

Cameco and AREVA both have major long-term contracts with China,

(each about 2,000 tU per year) and both have major production

ramping up in Kazakhstan


Where to from Here?

Japan well-supplied post-Fukushima

Kazakhstan already active in India, and even in 2020, Indian

demand will be only 25% the size of China’s

Only large markets left are EU and USA


Kazakhstan’s Share in Two Largest Uranium Markets

Australia

15%

Canada

21%

Russia

22%

USA

8%

Kazakhstan

15%

Nambia

11%

Others

8%Australia

12%Canada

12%

Russia

28%Niger

12%

Kazakhstan

16%

S.A.+Namibia

7%

Others

13%

Top Supplier Countries

to U.S. Utilities (2010)

Top Supplier Countries

to EU Utilities (2010)

Sources:

DOE EIA Uranium Marketing Annual 2010 (US); Euratom

Annual Report 2010 (EU)


Uncovered Uranium Requirements in Two Largest Markets

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

Me

tric

To

nn

es

Ura

niu

m

Uncovered EU Needs

Uncovered US Needs

Sources:

UX Consulting (US) and NAC (EU)


Conclusions

• There’s a big difference between “reactor demand” and

“uncovered reactor demand”

• The fast-growing China market is already well-supplied, and

Kazakhstan (directly or indirectly) is already the dominant supplier

• Further Chinese purchases are simply adding to strategic

inventory

• While the EU has some unmet requirements, mostly post-2015,

they are substantially smaller than unmet US requirements

• Given Kazakhstan’s 35% share of global production, and 15%

market share in the US, the US must be seen as Kazakhstan’s

best opportunity for future uranium sales

Возможности Казахстана на урановом рынке

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