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Transcript of © 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire)...
© 2008 POPULATION REFERENCE BUREAU
Italy and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (formerly Zaire) Illustrate the Demographic Divide in 2008.
Source: Carl Haub and Mary Mederios Kent, 2008 World Population Data Sheet.
ITALYDEM. REP. OF THE CONGO
2008 Population 59.9 million 66.5 million
2025 Population 62.0 million 109.7 million
Population below Age 15 8.4 million 31.3 million
Population Age 65 and Older 11.9 million 1.7 million
Annual Births 568,000 2.9 million
Annual Deaths 575,000 843,000
Annual Natural Increase (births minus deaths) - 7,000 2.1 million
Annual Infant Deaths 2,300 270,000
Life Expectancy at Birth 81 years 53 years
Percent of Population Undernourished < 2.5% 74%
Chapter 2 Outline• World Population Growth• Geographic Distribution Of The
World’s Population• Global Variation In Population Size
And Growth• Global Demographic Contrasts
World Population Growth• During the first 90% of human existence,
the population of the world had grown only to the size of today’s New York City.
• Between 1750 and 1950, the world’s population grew from 800 million to 2.5 billion.
• Since 1950 it has expanded to more than six billion.
A.D.2000
A.D.1000
A.D.1
1000B.C.
2000B.C.
3000B.C.
4000B.C.
5000B.C.
6000B.C.
7000B.C.
1+ million years
8
7
6
5
2
1
4
3
OldStoneAge New Stone Age
BronzeAge
IronAge
MiddleAges
ModernAge
Black Death — The Plague
9
10
11
12
A.D.3000
A.D.4000
A.D.5000
18001900
1950
1975
2000
2100
Future
Billions
Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 (1998).
World Population Growth Through History
Why Was Early Growth Slow?
• During the first 99% of human history death rates were high.
• During the hunting-gathering phase, life expectancy averaged 20 years. More than half of children born will died
before 5. The average woman who survived the
reproductive years would have to bear nearly 7 children to assure 2 survived to adulthood.
Why Are More Recent Increases so Rapid?• Acceleration in population after 1750 was
due to declines in the death rate that accompanied the Industrial Revolution. People were eating better, wearing
warmer clothes, bathing more often and drinking cleaner water.
• Continuing population increases are due to dramatic declines in mortality without a commensurate decline in fertility.
Worldwide
0.6
0.9
1.82.0 2.0
1.3
0
1
2
3
1950-1955 1970-1975 1990-1995 2010-2015 2030-2035 2045-2050
Bill
ion
s
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ch
ildre
n p
er
wo
ma
n
Women 15 to 49 Average number of children per woman
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Women of Childbearing Age and Fertility
Sources: (United States) Ansley Coale and Melvin Zelnik (1963); and National Center for Health Statistics. (Bangladesh) United Nations;Demographic and Health Surveys; and other surveys
To Slow Population Growth, Developing Countries’ Fertility Decline Must Be Rapid.
Average Lifetime Births per Woman: 1800-2007
Decline or Growth, 2002-2025Percent
3
12
-17
-14
-8
6
Bulgaria (1.1)
Russia (1.1)
Italy (1.2)
Trinidad & Tobago (1.6)
South Korea (1.4)
China (1.8)
Country (average number of children per woman)
Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects: The 2002 Revision (medium scenario), 2003.
Population in Countries With Low Fertility
Orange –Greater than 100 millionBlue - 50 and 100 millionGreen -40 and 50 millionYellow - 30 and 40 million
Lavender - 20 and 30 millionPink –10 and 20 millionGrey - 5 and 10 million.
Population Growth
YearPopulation (Millions)
Average Annual Growth Rate
Doubling Time
–8000 4
–2000 27 0.07 1,051
–500 100 0.14 498
500 198 -0.01 -5,414
1000 290 0.08 906
Population Growth
YearPopulation (Millions)
Average Annual Growth Rate
Doubling Time
1500 473 0.27 258
1800 945 0.42 163
1900 1,654 0.59 118
1920 1,860 0.61 113
1940 2,300 1.05 65
Population Growth
YearPopulation (Millions)
Average Annual Growth Rate
Doubling Time
1960 3,039 1.33 52
1980 4,454 1.69 41
2000 6,071 1.25 55
2020 7,524 1.00 69
2040 8,492 0.65 106
Doubling Time• The time required for a population to
double if the current rate of growth continues.
• The doubling time is approximately equal to 69 divided by the growth rate.
• Estimate the world’s rate of growth in the year 2003 to be 1.2% per year, the doubling time is 58 years.
Redistribution of the World’s Population through Migration
• Migration streams flow from rapidly growing areas into less rapidly growing ones: Latin America and Asia to the United
States Asia to Canada Africa and Asia to Europe
• In earlier decades, as population grew dense in a region, people moved to less populated areas.
European Expansion • Europeans began to stake out the less
developed areas of the world in the 15th and 16th centuries.
• Before this expansion, Europeans represented 18% of the world’s population.
• By the 1930s, people of European origin in Europe, North America, and Oceania accounted for 35% of the world’s population.
The Urban Revolution• As recently as 1800, less than 1% of the
world’s population lived in cities of 100,000 or more.
• More than 1/3 of all humans now live in cities of that size.
• Urban populations grew in some countries even without industrialization, as places sprang up where goods and services were exchanged.
World Population Increase
Time Period
Births DeathsNatural Increase
Year 132,594,000 56,826,000 75,768,000
Day 363,271 155,688 207,584
Hour 15,136 6,487 8,649
Minute 252 108 144
Second 4 2 2
Future Population GrowthMore
Developed Nations
LessDeveloped
NationsWorld
Population in 2000(millions)
1,194 4,877 6,071
Medium fertility- Projection to 2050
1,220 7,699 8,919
Low fertility -Projection to 2050
1,084 6,3257,409
High fertility- Projection to year
20501,370 9,263
10,633
World Population Clock
Natural Increase per World
More Developed Countries
Less Developed Countries
Year 82,866,000 2,083,000 80,784,000
Day 227,030 5,707 217,294
Minute 158 4 154
2009
Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2009 World Population Data Sheet.
How Many People Have Ever Lived?
Historical Period
# Born During the Period (billions)
Cumulative Total Born (billions)
200,000 BC to 8,000 BC
2.1 2.1
8,001 BC to AD 0 16.7 18.8
AD 1 to 1799 29.4 48.2
1800 to 1899 3.6 51.8
1900 to 1949 2.6 54.4
1950 to 2003 6.5 60.9