© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies A “Warfighter” Perspective Dennis K. McBride,...

© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies

A “Warfighter” Perspective

Dennis K. McBride, Ph.D., CPE

CAPT, MSC, USN (Ret.)

Visiting Professor, Modeling & Simulation

Institute for Simulation & Training

University of Central Florida

XMSF Strategic Opportunities

6 September 2002


The Problem

“That’s not my problem.”*

“I didn’t say all those things I said.”+

* Any Navy (DoD, USG) Official+ Yogi Berra


The Algorithm

TestDev

TestValid

6.1 6.2

6.3

ScientificArticle

Select

FrontEnd

AnalysisSimulator

Dev

MILSTD1472 MILH

46855

AdequateForce

?

MissionAccomplished

Y

AdequateForce

?

Y

AdequateForce

?

Y

N

Train

N

EquipmentRe-Design

N


Exemplar: Just in time training


The “Warfighter” Redefined for the New Century:

D

I

E

M

Diplomacy

Intelligence

Economics

Military


4 MYA 400-500 cc Aferensis

2 MYA 600-700 cc Habilis

1 MYA 900-1100 cc Erectus

100K 1350 cc Modern

Pliocene Pleistocene

Evolutionary Environment of AncestryEvolutionary Environment of Ancestry

Present

3x increase in brain volume, mass3x increase in brain volume, mass

>3x increase in volumetric brain power>3x increase in volumetric brain power

“Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power“Folding” provides continued geometric increase in brain power

Brain Growth DataFor Hominidae

Source: McHenry, 1994


Estimates of Human Processing Capabilities

Process

SensoryNeural CodingCognitiveTo Perm. Store

Flow (Bits/Sec)

1 Billion3 Million

160.7

% Filtered

∞0.003

0.0000050.04

Only 1.6 x 10-9 of data bombarding the operator used in real time!

% Orig. Filtered

----

.0000000016

.0000000014

Source: Steinbuck, 1962

Filtering Algorithms

Neuropsychological Sex DifferencesNeuropsychological Sex Differences

More brain volume

More asymmetry

More white matter

Larger amygdala

Larger inferior parietal lobe

Seasonal fluctuation in testosterone

Greater aggressive behavior

Better spatial skills

Less asymmetry

More gray matter, density

Larger caudate

Larger hippocampus

Larger pallidum

Larger cingulate sulcus

More hormonal cyclicity

Better verbal skills

fMRI mapping is just beginningfMRI mapping is just beginning

Conclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differencesConclusion: We are learning more about differences


Today’s Function and FormToday’s Function and Form

Respiration…Respiration… Memory, Discrimination, Emotion…

Memory, Discrimination, Emotion…

Associative Reasoning…Associative Reasoning…

Reptilian BrainReptilian Brain Paleomammalian BrainPaleomammalian Brain Neocortical BrainNeocortical Brain


The Prefrontal Cortex

Problem solving preparation (Carter, et al.)Dorsolateral prefrontal cortex

Emotion processing (Adolphs, et al.)Right hemisphere prefrontal cortex

Object categorization (Freedman, et al.)Lateral prefrontal cortex

“Theory of the mind”Prefrontal lobes, left amygdala

Executive control – switching (Rubinstein, et al.), simulationPrefrontal cortex, parietal lobes

Mr. Phinneas Gage’s railroad spike

What do engineers use for birth control?Why did the golfer wear two pairs of pants?


Information & Knowledge

Effects of information and knowledge will be revolutionary. DoD has not fully exploited today's IT. This will happen, but the next wave of IT will be as difficult and expensive to adopt as today's

DoD will get most IT from commercial sector. But, adaptation and special needs must be funded by DoD

Software development and maintenance must improve

Data validation problems must be solved

Need to improve the science of simulation

Must solve DoD’s IT workforce problems

Year 2025

Year 2010

Year 2000

A B C

Year 2025

Year 2010

Year 2000

A B C


Information & KnowledgeInformation and knowledge systems are vital for:• Information superiority• Coordination of organizations and operations that are

progressively more: FlatFlexibleSmallerWidely dispersedJoint & InteragencyCoalition-oriented

• Precision, long distance fires

Too much data, too little wisdom

Dat

a V

olu

me

Time

Communications& Distribution

Final Processing Display

Storage

In-situ Processing

Sensors

Too much data, too little wisdom

Dat

a V

olu

me

Time

Communications& Distribution

Final Processing Display

Storage

In-situ Processing

Sensors



Performance to increase, cost to drop (e.g., uncooled IR)

Broader spectrum coverage (e.g., Dog’s Nose)

Individual collectors to huge arrays

In-situ processing – Information, rather than data

Infrared focal plane arrays obsolete much of our IR countermeasure capabilities

Robotics – UAVs, mini- micro-, and eventually nanobots

Thousands of networks replenishing military databases and cross feeding a variety of perspectives

Sensors will improve and proliferate



New Silicon production techniques Vs new materials

Next generation processors? Anything that counts!• Optical Computing: Electronics will yield to the “Optical Age”• Quantum Computing (e.g., Spintronics) • DNA computing• Parallel Processing: Needs new software concept!

Storage: GMR 1 CD may eventually have the storage capacity of 1,000 CDs, providing all information needed for an entire mission

Hardware and Processing technologies will improve in speed, power, memory, and storage capacity In 15 years

chips will be about 15K more capable than today’s (24 hour task in 1 hour) without breakthroughs



Problems …

Excessively long delivery times

Failure of large, complex software codes

Information assurance/security

Considerable supply from foreign sources

Challenged by large amounts of information

Creation and maintenance

“If I were to select the most critical R&D need today, it is in software tools and management techniques. Almost every system we develop involves the dominant use of software, and many of the problems we face stem from software issues. This is an area where we need long- range Research and Development efforts to develop new technologies for future systems; and short-range management approaches (often those being applied in commercial industry).” Jacques Gansler’s Opening Statement to the HASC, 3/1/2000.

Software technologies and approaches must change


… And solutions:

Better software through OOP???????

AI: High expectations, disappointing results

• Two ways to give machines “common sense”Provide background info

Teach to learn

• Benefits include:Data/information management – “Wisdom from data”

Reduce choices (Choosing your TV programs?)

Tireless, “Human-like” associates

Robotic self-reinvention




Fiber optics and other technologies will enable BOD to be reached in hard-connected systems

Wireless connections to moving stations to remain a challenge

Improved smart wave-forms will be developed for all operations

Internet. By 2003, Internet use will almost double, will be an even more complex, reliable, and secure system

Communications will be ubiquitous, autonomous, secure, broadband to distribute increasing information


Chronology of IT x PsychologyChronology of IT x Psychology

Mech. Clocks

(Aristotle)

(Egypt, map)

Pascaline

Liebniz computer

Babbage engine

Ada Lovelaceprogrammer

Boolean logic

Descartes

Locke

Berkely

Hume

Mill

Wundt

Mendel

Galton

Darwin

Explosive growth

-Electrical-Electronics-Computing-Communication

Gestaltism

Behaviorism

Ethology

Evolution

Cognitivism

Artificial Intel.

Neural Nets

Pentium 32-bitWWW ubiquitousPDA ubiquitous1BIPS@300MHZTouch screensVoice interactiveFace recognitionE-commerce Wireless comm

Psychobiology

Learning Theory

$1K=1T/calc/secEmbedded comp.Wireless wiredBiocomputingSpeech recog ubiqIntelligent tutoringReliable transla.Orbital sensing

Sociobiology

$1K=10 brainsComputers ubiqui.3-D displaysSpeech>>manualVirtual presenceVisual auditoryVirtual transactorsOrbital personal

Biology

$1=1 brainSensory implantsDirect neural pathsAgent learning, entrepreneuringAgent>human in- teractionAll-sensor comm.Machines think they are consc.Orbitalpersonal

Bioengineering

1000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 20501000 1640s – 1840s 1900s 2000 2010 – 2020 2025 2050

Based on multiple sources including Ray Kurzweil


Decade of the Brain fMRI

Cognitive Revolution

Moore’s Law

Augmented Cognition


Objective

1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-1, 2, or 3 Order of Magnitude Improvement in Net Human-Machine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic MarriageMachine Information Capacity: a Symbiotic Marriage

This Will Improve and Enhance the Quality of Military Decision Making

Time

Cap

ab

ilit

y

Human

AugCog: Improved Human Performance

Digital ComputationNetworkingMemory

Biological intelligence is at a relative standstill.

Symbiotic MarriageSymbiotic Marriage


Computer Power and Networking

Computers will continue to follow Moore’s Law• Speed and memory double every eighteen months (ex:

terraflop, petaflop and computers run on light)• Bandwidth has increased speed and sending capacity

for all users Programming has completely changed in the last 15 years and will continue to changeNeural networking, based on brain, function may increase capacity of computersKnowledge and information may become so abundant it will impede our ability to learn


Trainability

Income gaps follow knowledge gapsAmericans as a whole are well-educated but many are still unprepared for workTechnology has not been able to bridge the education gap in K-12Learning in the future will be reorganized to meet the needs of the ever-changing worker

Predictors of success in work and school:

• Socio-economic status

• Graduation rates fall along racial lines

• IQ testing, regardless of education level


Trainability

Digital technology will revolutionize the practice of teaching and training

There is a good possibility learning will drive technology• More is spent on learning than on the movie

industry each year in the U.S.

Three Major types of training:• Organizational

• Learner-driven

• Technology-mediated


Trends in Organizational Learning

Reduce gap in product-service timeNeed for globalizationAbility to extend instructor impact onlineBusiness and education units should work togetherMinimize non-instructional cost (technology should reduce cost)Desire for different types of learningNeed performance support in trainingChoices in pricing, assessment and class selection


Trends in Learner-Driven and Technology-Mediated Learning

Learner-Driven

• Workers have good tools for learning at home-put them to use

• Learning independent of time and place

• Multi-modal, multi-lingual individualized training

• “Learnbots” will help decide what to learn and how to learn

• Need for “coaching” rather than “sage on the stage” teaching

Technology-Mediated• Open-architecture,

adaptable devices and authoring tools

• Standard and speedy bandwidth

• Virtual libraries• New pedagogy• More accessible tutors• Substantive content

© 2002 Potomac Institute for Policy Studies A “Warfighter” Perspective Dennis K. McBride,...

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