What Every Citizen Should Know

About Our Planet

Part Five:Riddles Of The Dinoflagellates

Copyright Randolph Femmer, 1999.All rights reserved.

What might the next 100 years be like?

Why might we see hundreds of thousands of extinctions in the decades ahead?

What is earth’s carrying capacity for an industrialized humanity?

A mental experiment helps us see the answers to these questions.

Suppose we place a one-celled

dinoflagellate in a bottle of salt water at

10:00 a.m.An Experim

ent

And suppose it doubles its numbers every 60

seconds.10:00 a.m.

Grows exponentially.

One Hour Later

11:00 a.m.

Completely Full.

All dead.

And suppose that at the end

of one hour(11:00 a.m.)

1. The bottle is completely full,

2. All the dinoflagellates are dead.

and

When Is The Bottle Half-Full?

The bottle is half-full at 10:59.

2: Click Here

1: Click Here

Answer:

10:58

75% Empty

Notice the jar is 75% empty…...

with only two minutes left.

88% Empty

Answer:

10:57

Notice the jar is 88% empty

with only three minutes left.

1 / 16th

Notice the container is approximately 93% empty..

even though only four minutes remain.

Notice that the jar is mostly empty with only three or four minutes to go.

Most of the growth in an exponential sequence

occurs at the end.

When do they realize they have a problem?

Assume the dinoflagellates are an intelligent species.

they analyze their world using linear mathematics

(“grocery-store arithmetic”)the extent of the problem

may become apparent only moments before disaster.

What if one of thedinoflagellates

knows exponential math

and issues a warning

at 10:56 when thejar is 93% empty?

93% Empty

What if the warning states that

the exponential growth,

if continued, will produce

disaster in only four more minutes?

Will the warning be accepted?

Ordismissed asnonsense?

What if one of the

dinoflagellates acts as a

spokesman.... but analyzes the problem incorrectly using linear

mathematics?

What if this spokesman

says “Nonsense.

The jar is only 1/16th full after 56 minutes.”

“Common sense tells us

we have another 56 minutes to go.... and then our

home jar will only be

2/16ths full.”

Which position “seems”

more logical?

An analysis using linear mathematics only seems more

logical because from ourearliest childhood, we have been

taught to “interpret the world”

using “grocery-store arithmetic.”

Now we can appreciate one of

the special dangers of exponential mathematics.

If citizens have little or no experience with exponential number

sequences, a population can find

itself in trouble.

Click Here

We are not interested in dinoflagellates in a bottle.

We are interested in our planet.

Answer 1

Answer 2

What is Earth’s carrying capacity for an industrialized humanity?

At what standard of living?

(If we are willing to eat a bowlful of grain three times a day -- instead of steak -- the Earth can

support more people.)

Do other species have a right to exist?

If we eliminate all Earth’s wildlife and wilderness....

so all its resources are diverted to humans...Earth can support many more people.

Do future generations have any rights?

Do those persons now living have the right to use all of the Earth’s oil and similar natural

resources?

Or do future generations have

rights to such resources as well?

Who is responsible for cleaning up the mess?

Do future generations have a right to inherit a clean,

unpolluted, and undefiled planet?

Or is it their responsibility to clean up

radioactive plutonium wastes that will remain

deadly for hundreds of thousands of years?

If our planet is stressed now, with a population of about six billion....

only half of whom are industrialized....

how many of us can be accommodated in the near future....

without overwhelming (breaking) critical components of Earth’s

biological machinery?

We can use the “riddle of the dinoflagellates” to help understand the times in which we live.

AnAnAnalysisAnalysis

Most Ph.D. biologists would express grave doubts about any attempt to

accommodate 20 billion on our planet in the next 100 years.

Assume (for discussion) that 20 Billion is beyond the planet’s near-term carrying

capacity.

Most recentlyour

“doubling time”was

forty years.

Scenario one imagines

that this previouspattern continues

into the near future.

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perhaps our future doublingswill also be about 40 years.

Since our most recent doubling time was about 40 years

and our doubling time is about 40 years.ten billion represents “one doubling” left….

40years

Then five billion represents “two doublings” left.

40years

40years

40years

40years

1987 2027 2067

scenario one occurs

Maybe less than 80 years?

Less than forty years to 10 billion?

And perhaps another forty years to 20 billion?

Nobody knows exactly.

scenario one occurs, we could be closer in time

to planetary catastrophe

than we are to the firstflight of the Wright brothers.

We assumed that the Earth’s carrying capacity was not critically exceeded until 20 billion.

That assumption is probably not correct.

Earth’s carrying capacity could be more …..

It might be.

but it might very well be

less.

Many demographers are slightly more optimistic.

For Example

Their Assumptions

Click Here

Reality Doesn’t Blink

Reality Doesn’t Blink

Can we solve our problem bycolonizing other planets?

Other PlanetsOther

Planets

Other PlanetsOther

Planets

Click Here

Suppose the dinoflagellates realize

their danger and discover three new bottles just like their home bottle.

Suppose they are even more fortunate, and all

environmental conditions are just like their home

bottle.

How much additional time do they buy for themselves?

Click Here

They only buy themselvestwo more minutes.

In one more minute (11:01)....

they double ....

and completely-fill a second bottle.

By 11:02 ....

they double again....

so that all four bottles are completely filled with dead dinoflagellates.

AnswerAnswer

The dinoflagellates fill their original bottle... And three more just like it ... In one hour and two minutes.

(Thank goodness We are smarter than dinoflagellates!)

Have A Nice Day!

What has been our most recent doubling time? When does most of the growth occur in an

exponential sequence? How is exponential mathematics like a fire-alarm? List 3 or 4 characteristics of exponential number

sequences. Do other species have a right to exist? Which jar do we inhabit?

Randolph Femmer

wishes to acknowledge and thankwishes to acknowledge and thank

who authored and developed this presentation.