Post on 11-Sep-2014
description
Gathering Data & Harvesting
Collective Intelligence
Bias runs deep: Deny, Delay & Do Nothing
Rush Limbaugh CEO Lee RaymondEvangelical James Dobson
Senator James Inhofe (R-OK)
“The best way to predict your future is to create it!”
Abraham Lincoln
“The long-term threat of climate change, which, if left unchecked, could result in violent conflict, terrible storms, shrinking coastlines, and irreversible catastrophe.”
Barack Obama
The Virtuous Cycle of Green Innovation
California Green Innovation Index 2009, Next 10, www.next10.org/
4 TRENDS – CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES
FOOD/WATER SHORTAGES
CLIMATE CATASTROPHE
MASS POVERTY
WWW MESH
www.climateprogress.org/
Climate Solution Resources
www.realclimate.org/ www.aclimateforlife.org/
Climate Catastrophe
Humans put as much CO2 into the atmosphere every 44 hours
1991 Mount Pinatubo eruption in Philippines
Figure shows declining insurance industry capacity to absorb weather-related natural disasters. Curves show ratio of global weather-related property losses to total property/casualty premiums over the past quarter-century, indexed to average 1980 levels. Source: Evan Mills, Lawrence Berkeley National Lab
Losing Nature’s “Insurance Capacity”
$2.5 trillionalmost a quarter of
the US economy is at risk from the
weatherlarge forest wildfires have tripled and area burned increased >5-fold since the 1980s, burning 5x longer, and wildfire season has lengthened 2/3rd.
Unintended Consequences – Geo-engineering
A significant fraction of CO2 emissions remain in the atmosphere, and accumulate over geological time spans of hundreds of thousands of years, raising the lurid, but real
threat of extinction of humanity and most life on earth.
Cost-Benefit Analysis (CBA) Misleading
… a more illuminating and constructive analysis would bedetermining the level of "catastrophe insurance" needed:
"rough comparisons could perhaps be made with the potentially-huge payoffs, small probabilities, and significantcosts involved in countering terrorism, building anti-ballistic missile shields, or neutralizing hostile dictatorships possibly harboring weapons of mass destruction
…A crude natural metric for calibrating cost estimates of climate-change environmental insurance policies might be that the U.S. already spends approximately 3% [~$300 billion] of national income on the cost of a clean environment."
Weitzman, Martin. 2008. On Modeling and Interpreting the Economics of Catastrophic Climate Change. REStat FINAL Version July 7, 2008, http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/REStatFINAL.pdf.
Contraction & Convergence “ . . . the logical conclusion of a rights-based approach.” IPCC Third Assessment - June 2000
Right-Sizing Humans’ CO2 Footprint
2008
2050
now 45GtCO2
reduce to<10 GtCO2
2100reduce to<4 GtCO2
3%/yr
19x2%/yr
7x
agriculture5%
bldgs EE15%
transport EE15%
industry EE15%
solar15%
wind15%
biomass10%
geothermal1%
oil1%
gas2%
coal1%
forests5%
Wedges Scenario for 21st Century CO2 Reductions
Assumes:
1) Global economic growth 2-3% per year all century long;
2) sustaining 3% per year efficiency gains;
3) Combined carbon cap & carbon tax
IPCC LULUCF Special Report 2000. Tab 1-2.
Gigatons global CO2 emissions per year
0
5
10
15
20
25
Fossil fuel emissions Tropical land use
Billion tons CO2
“Leasing” CO2 Mitigation Services
5 billion tons CO2 per year in mitigation services available in poor nations, increasing their revenues by billions of dollars annually ; and saving well-off nations billions of dollars.
US GHG levels
13 million hectares burned each year
6th largest extinction – 1000 times the natural background rate
Research commissioned by the Stern Review, indicates that the direct yields from land converted to farming, including proceeds from the sale of timber, are equivalent to less than $1 per ton of CO2 in many areas currently losing forest, and usually well below $5 per ton.
Avoided Deforestation potentially offers one of the most cost-effective, immediately available, and large-scale carbon mitigation and adaptation options, second only to energy efficiency options.
For example: it will require $40 billion to capture and store1 billion tons of CO2 from coal plants.
The same amount of money would prevent the release of 8 timesthis amount of CO2 through avoided deforestation.
$-$5
$10$15$20$25$30$35$40$45$50
CCS REDD
Geological storage (CCS) vsEcological storage (REDD)
Carbon Mitigation Cost per ton CO2
U.S. Fossil- fueled Electricity Carbon Offset cost nationally per year
~$60 billion3 ¢ per kWh
~$10 billion0.5 ¢ per kWh
About $800 billion per year (at 8% of $10 trillion U.S. economy)
100 years of Cumulative Energy Costs at 2.5%/yr GDP Growth■USA $355 trillion (out of total of $4,444 trillion GNP)■GLOBAL $1,422 trillion (out of total $17,774 trillion GWP)
1970 2006
Envision 18 million coal railcars that would wrap around the world seven times each year.
Or, imagine 8,800 Exxon Valdez oil supertanker shipments per year.
Only 2 nations consume > 75 EJ per year: USA and China.
USA Efficiency gains 1973-2005 Eliminated 75 ExaJoules of Energy Supply
$700 billion per year in energy bill savings
BUSINESS-AS-USUAL TRAJECTORY 200 times this amount over 100 years –113,000 EJ (3600 TW-yrs). Fossil fuels will account for 75% of this sum.
CURRENT GLOBAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION ~ 475 ExaJoules (15 TW-yrs)
Envision eliminating the need for 13.8 billion coal railcars this
century.
SMART ENERGY SERVICES (EFFICIENCY) can deliver 57,000 EJs (1800 TW-yrs). Save >$50 trillion. Avoid several trillion tons CO2 emissions.
OR, Envision eliminating the
need for 17 million LNG
tanker shipments.
OR, Envision eliminating the need for 10,000 giant offshore oil platforms this century.
Hashem Akbari Arthur Rosenfeld and Surabi Menon, Global Cooling: Increasing World-wide Urban Albedos to Offset CO2, 5th Annual California Climate Change Conference, Sacramento, CA, September 9, 2008, http://www.climatechange.ca.gov/events/2008_conference/presentations/index.html
$1+ Trillion Global Savings Potential, 44 Gigaton CO2 Reduction
$10 CFL 6-pak Purchase Value
[source: SafeClimate.net]
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
Investment lst year 2nd year 3rd year 4th year
6-pak CFLs Dow -Jones Average Bank Account
$
CFL factories displace Powerplants
source: A. Gadgil et al. LBL, 1991
The $3 million CFL factory (right) produces 5 million CFLs per year. Over life of factory these CFLs will produce lighting services sufficient to displace several billion dollars of fossil-fired power plant investments used to power less efficient incandescent lamps.
Less Large Power Plants & MinesMore Retail “Efficiency Power Plants - EPPs”
Less Coal Power Plants
Less Coal Rail Cars
Less Coal Mines
Biggest Efficiency Service of Them All:Supplier Chain Factories & Products
Industrial electric motor systems consume 40% of electricity worldwide, 50% in USA, 60% in China – over 7 trillion kWh per year.
Retrofit savings of 30%, New savings of 50% -- @ 1 ¢/kWh.
2 trillion kWh per year savings –equal to 1/4th all coal plants to be built through 2030 worldwide.
$240 billion savings per decade.
$200 to $400 billion benefits per decade in avoided emissions of GHGs, SO2 and NOx.
Efficiency OutcomesDemand Facts
Support SEEEM (Standards for Energy Efficiency of Electric Motor Systems)
SEEEM (www.seeem.org/) is a comprehensive market transformation strategy to promote efficient industrial electric motor systems worldwide
Public library – North Carolina
Heinz Foundation Green Building, PA
Oberlin College Ecology Center,
Ohio
ZERO NET ENERGY GREEN BUILDINGS
The Costs and Financial Benefits
of Green Buildings, A Report to California’s Sustainable
Building Task Force, Oct. 2003, by
Greg Kats et al.
$500 to $700 per m2 net
present value
Daylighting could displace 100s GWs
Lighting, & AC to remove heat emitted by lights, consume half of a commercial building electricity. Daylighting can provide up to 100% of day-time lighting, eliminating massive amount of power plants and saving tens of billions of dollars in avoided costs. Some daylight designs integrate PV solar cells.
High-E Windows displacing pipelines
Full use of high performance windows in the U.S. could save the equivalent of an Alaskan pipeline (2 million barrels of oil per day), as well as accrue over $15 billion per year of savings on energy bills.
Align utility and customer financial interests to capture the vast pool of end-use efficiency,
onsite and distributed energy and water service opportunities.
KEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLINGKEY POLICY – UTILITY DECOUPLING
Dr. Art Rosenfeld Amory Lovins
New York
California
USA minus CA & NYPer Capital Electricity Consumption
165 GW Coal
Power Plants
Californian’s have net savings of
$1,000 per family
[EPPs]
“Decoupling” & Integrated Resource Planning key to harnessing End-Use “Efficiency Power Plants”For delivering least-cost & risk electricity, natural gas & water services
California proof of IRP value in promoting lower cost efficiency over new power plants or hydro dams, and lower GHG emissions.
California signed MOUs with Provinces in China to share IRP expertise (now underway in Jiangsu).
Avoids Externalized cost from pollutants between $50 million & $360 million per yearAccrues $67.5 million annual savingsSaves 45 billion gallons watersAvoids Waste generation of 70,000 tons/year of sludge
Avoids significant quantities of toxic mercury, cadmium, arsenic, and other heavy metals
Avoids emitting 2 million tons CO2
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons NOx
Avoids emitting 5,400 tons SO2
Avoids burning 600,000 to 800,000 tons coalEliminates 6,000 to 8,000 railroad car shipments of coal delivered each year
Each 300 MW Conventional Coal Power Plant (CPP) Eliminated by an equivalent Efficiency Power Plant (EPP)
(1.8 billion kWh per year)
Avoided Emissions & Savings per China EPP
[1] Estimated at between 2.7 to 20 cents per kWh by the European Commission, Directorate-General XII, Science, Research and Development, JOULE, ExternE: Externalities of Energy, Methodology Report, 1998, Twww.externe.info/reportex/vol2.pdfT
And EPPs generates several times more jobs per $ of investment
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen
bldg scale cogen
recycled ind cogen
end-use efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
How much coal-fired electricity can be displaced by investing one dollar to make or save delivered electricity
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen
bldg scale cogen
recycled ind cogen
end-use efficiency
Amory Lovins & Imran Sheikh, The Nuclear Illusion, May 2008, www.rmi.org
Coal-fired CO2 emissions displaced per dollar spent on electrical services
nuclear coal CC gas wind farm CC indcogen
bldg scale cogen
recycled ind cogen
end-use efficiency
1. Economically affordable2. Safe3. Clean4. Risk is low and manageable5. Resilient and flexible6. Ecologically sustainable7. Environmentally benign8. Fails gracefully, not catastrophically9. Rebounds easily and swiftly from failures10.Endogenous learning capacity11.Robust experience curve for reducing
negative externalities and amplifying positive externalities
12.Uninteresting target for malicious disruption
Desirable attributes of a Smart Energy system
DOZEN CRITERIA
including poorest of the poor and cash-strapped?through the entire life cycle?through the entire lifespan?
from financial and price volatility?to volatility, surprises, miscalculations, human error?
no adverse impacts on biodiversity?maintains air, water, soil quality?
adaptable to abrupt surprises or crises?low recovery cost and lost time?
intrinsic new productivity opportunities?
scalable innovation possibilities?
off the radar of terrorists, military planners?
A Defensible Smart Energy Criteria Scoring
Efficiency BIPV PV Wind CSP CHP Biowastepower
Geo-thermal
Nat gas
Bio-fuels
Oil imports
Coal CCS
nuclearTar sand
Oil shale
Coal to liquids
Coal no
CCS
Promote
CHP + biowastes
Economically AffordableSafeCleanSecureResilient & flexibleEcologically sustainableEnvironmentally benignFails gracefully, not catastroRebounds easily from failuresEndogenous learning capacityRobust experience curvesUninteresting military target
In the USA, cities and residences cover 56 million hectares.
Every kWh of current U.S. energy requirements can be met simply by applying photovoltaics (PV) to 7% of this area—on roofs, parking lots, along highway walls, on sides of buildings, and in other dual-use scenarios. Experts say we wouldn’t have to appropriate a single acre of new land to make PV our primary energy source!
90% of America’s current electricity could be supplied with PV systems built in the “brown-fields”— the estimated 2 million hectares of abandoned industrial sites that exist in our nation’s cities.
Larry Kazmerski, Dispelling the 7 Myths of Solar Electricity, 2001, National Renewable Energy Lab, www.nrel.gov/;
Cleaning Up Brownfield
Sites w/ PV solar
Solar Photovoltaics (PV) satisfying 90% of total US electricity from brownfields
SunSlate Building-Integrated Photovoltaics (BIPV) commercial
building in Switzerland
+$11,024 1.702
+$15,373 1.892
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Aluminum
+$14,237 2.141
+$18,586 2.331
NPV ($) BCR PBP (yrs)
Polished Stone
ShanghaiBeijingEconomic Measure
Material Replaced
Net Present Values (NPV), Benefit-Cost Ratios (BCR) & Payback Periods (PBP) for ‘Architectural’ BIPV (Thin Film, Wall-Mounted PV) in Beijing and Shanghai (assuming a 15% Investment Tax Credit)
Byrne et al, Economics of Building Integrated PV in China, July 2001, Univ. of Delaware, Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, Twww.udel.edu/ceep/T]
Economics of Commercial BIPV Building-Integrated Photovoltaics
Reference costs of facade-cladding materialsBIPV is so economically attractive because it captures both energy savings and savings from displacing other expensive building materials.
Eiffert, P., Guidelines for the Economic Evaluation of Building-Integrated Photovoltaic Power Systems, International Energy Agency PVPS Task 7: Photovoltaic Power Systems in the Built Environment, Jan. 2003, National Renewable Energy Lab, NREL/TP-550-31977, www.nrel.gov/
Economics of Commercial BIPV
Mass Poverty
More Absolute Poor than any time in Human History
Human Development Report 2007/2008 Fighting climate
change: Human solidarity in a divided world
Human Development Report 2003 Millennium Development
Goals: A Compact Among Nations to End Poverty
Human Development Report 2006 Beyond scarcity: Power, poverty and the global water
crisis
www.hdr.undp.org/en/
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT REPORTS
More absolute poverty than any time in human history
Economic Pyramid
Mature markets:>$20,000/yr75-100 million
people
Emerging markets:>$2,000-20,000/yr1.75 billion people
Bottom of PyramidSurvival markets:
<$2,000/yr4 billion people
Fractal Market ModelCreating a more resilient economy
Self-similar set, or fractal, a mathematically generated pattern that can be reproducible at any magnification or reduction.
Sierpinski “Pyramid”Fractal Market Model
• Robust Scalability• Long tail markets• Resilience to Fat tail
disruptions• More Virtuous cycles,
less vicious ones• Collective Intelligence
acceleration• Less brittle or vulnerable
to linear, surprise-free, industrial model disasters
• Greater social-ecological linkages
• Harnesses complex adaptive system processes, not rigidly resist them
Bottom of the Pyramid Growth
Three to four $100 microfinance loans enables most Grameen Bank borrowers to move out of poverty
Creating a World Without Poverty
Social Business and the
future of Capitalism
2 billion people lack safe water
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Every hour 200 children under 5 die from drinking dirty water. Every year, 60 million children reach adulthood stunted for good.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
4 billion annual episodes of diarrhea exhaust physical strength to perform labor -- cost
billions of dollars in lost income to the poor
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
A new water disinfector for thedeveloping world’s poor
• Meet /exceed WHO & EPA criteria for disinfection
• Energy efficient: 60W UV lamp disinfects 1 ton per hour (1000 liters, 264 gallons, or 1 m3)
• Low cost: 4¢ disinfects 1 ton of water• Reliable, Mature components• Can treat unpressurized water• Rapid throughput: 12 seconds• Low maintenance: 4x per year• No overdose risk• Fail-safe
DESIGN CRITERIA
Dr Ashok Gadgil, inventor
WaterHealth Intl deviceAshok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WHI’s Investment Cost Advantage vs. Other Treatment Options
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
WaterHealth International
The system effectively purifies and disinfects water contaminated with a broad range of pathogens, including polio and roto viruses, oocysts, such as Cryptosporidium and Giardia. The standard system is designed to provide 20 liters of potable water per person, per day, for a community of 3,000 people.
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Business model reaches underserved by including financing for the purchase and installation of our systems. User fees for treated water are used to repay loans and to cover the expenses of operating and maintaining the equipment and facility. Community members hired to conduct day-to-day maintenance of these “micro-utilities,” thus creating employment and building capacity, as well as generating entrepreneurial opportunities for local residents to provide related services, such as sales and distribution of the purified water to outlying areas. And because the facilities are owned by the communities in which they are installed, the user fees become attractive sources of revenue for the community after loans have been repaid.
WaterHealth International
Ashok Gadgil, Global Water Solutions through Technology, Affordable safe drinking water for poor communities in the developing countries, Purdue Calumet, 10/23/08, www.purdue.edu/dp/energy/events/great_lakes_water_quality_conference/content/Gadgil_Purdue_Global-water%202008.pdf
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Brightening up lifeMicro-utility service provider Mr. Umor, who owns a grocery shop. He bought a solar PV system with 6 CFL lamps. One lights his shop, and he rents the other 5 to nearby shops, increasing income by $12.50/month, paying for entire investment in 40 months.
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
http://www.lightingafrica.org/
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
Evan Mills, GROCC Demonstration Project: Affordable, High-Performance Solar LED Lighting Pilot via the Millennium Villages Project, http://eetd.lbl.gov/emills
This is an unique combination of Grameen Bank and Grameen Shakti’sintegrated effort for poverty reduction.
• Solar PV System is being used for mobile phone charging.
• Telephone lady earns US$100 per month from this pay phone.
• The system also help her children for their education
Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
Women are enjoying the hazardless and hassle free lighting system in their daily life.
They are getting opportunities to earn extra money by utilizing their time after dusk by sewing or poultry farming.
Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
Model 1:Entrepreneur install one solar PV system and shares the load with some other neighbors shop.
This micro-utility system has no service charge, rather down payment is only 10%.
In this model owner of the system pays monthly installment to GS and collects load charge (daily or weekly) from the users.
Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
100,000 Solar Home Systems by 2008 in Bangladesh
Village Micro-finance Bank & Village Solar Power (Grameen Bank & Grameen Shakti)
Rural China High-Efficiency Strawbale Green buildingsBrick house construction is still widely used in many rural areas. Brick factories occupy 1 million acres of land, destroys 150,000 acres of arable land every year, and consumes 100 million tons of coal per year.
The inefficient brick homes consume high levels of coal for heating & cooking, with high pollution levels causing chronic health problems, hundreds of thousands of premature deaths, and reduce crop yields.
RURAL HEALTH OPPORTUNITIES
FOOD SECURITY & AGROBIODIVERSITY
COMMUNITY FOODSCAPES & EDIBLE SCHOOLYARDS
GREEN CITIES & NEIGHBORHOODS
REGENERATIVE BUILDINGS – NEW & RENEWED
ECOLOGICAL RESILIENCE - LAND, FOOD & WATER
URBAN LANDSCAPES – EDIBLE & INCREDIBLE
WILD DIVERSITY & HEIRLOOM SEEDS
MOBILITY & ACCESS
Vehicle-to-Grid
Convergences & Emergences
Electric vehicles with onboard battery storageand bi-directional power flows could stabilize large-scale (one-half of US electricity) wind power with 3% of the fleet dedicated to regulation for wind, plus 8–38% of the fleet providing operating reserves or storage for wind.
Kempton, W and J. Tomic. (2005a). V2G implementation: From stabilizing the grid to supporting large-scale renewable energy. J. Power Sources, 144, 280-294.
Vehicle-to-Grid PHEVs
Immense Implications of V-to-Grid
1. National vehicle fleet becomes a vast distribution system of mobile batteries
2. Intermittent solar and wind energy sources become economically attractive because plug-in vehicles provide battery storage
3. Vehicles can recharge batteries using lower cost off-peak power
4. Vehicles can also provide “spinning reserve” in case of load loss, earning income on parked “asset”
5. Dramatic reductions in oil dependency6. Significant reductions in total power plant capacity
needs
Pacific NW National Lab 2006 Analysis SummaryPHEVs w/ Current Grid Capacity
Source: Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt, Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles on Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids, Part 1: Technical Analysis, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 01/07, www.pnl.gov/.
ENERGY POTENTIALU.S. existing electricity infrastructure has sufficient available capacity to fuel 84% of the nation’s cars, pickup trucks, and SUVs (198 million), or
73% of the light duty fleet (about 217 million vehicles) for a daily drive of 33 miles on average
ENERGY & NATIONAL SECURITY POTENTIALA shift from gasoline to PHEVs could reduce gasoline consumption by 85 billion gallons per year, which is equivalent to 52% of U.S. oil imports (6.5 million barrels per day).
OIL MONETARY SAVINGS POTENTIAL~$240 billion per year in gas pump savings
AVOIDED EMISSIONS POTENTIAL (emissions ratio of electric to gas vehicle)
27% decline GHG emissions, 100% urban CO, 99% urban VOC, 90% urban NOx, 40% urban PM10, 80% SOx; BUT, 18% higher national PM10 & doubling of SOxnationwide (from higher coal generation).
Corn ethanol
Cellulosic ethanol
Wind-battery turbine spacing
Wind turbines ground footprint
Solar-battery
Mark Z. Jacobson, Wind Versus Biofuels for Addressing Climate, Health, and Energy, Atmosphere/Energy Program, Dept. of Civil & Environmental Engineering, Stanford University, March 5, 2007, http://www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/E85vWindSol
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
WEB CALCULATOR- VISUALIZER – COMPARISON OF LAND NEEDED TO POWER VEHICLES
Wind & Solar experts
Solar-battery and Wind-battery refer to battery storage of these intermittent renewableresources in plug-in electric driven vehicles
By 2100, an additional 1700 million ha of land may be required for agriculture.
Combined with the 800 million ha of additional land needed for medium growth bioenergy scenarios, threatens intact ecosystems and biodiversity-rich habitats.
Food, Fuel, SpeciesTradeoffs?
Global Web Mesh
Global Wired Mesh Resources
www.wikinomics.com/ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wealth_of_Networks
http://www.shirky.com/
http://web2expo.blip.tv/file/855937/
And incredible video at:And incredible video at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgYE75gkzkM
And incredible video at:
www.youtube.com/watch?v=NgYE75gkzkM
5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet
published content
published contentuser
generated content
user generated
content
“the mostly read only Web” “the wildly read write Web”
45 million global users 1 billion+ global users
collectiveintelligence
The WIKIPEDIA MODEL: In 6 years and with only 6 paid employees, Catalyzed a value-adding creation now 10 times larger than the Encyclopedia Britannica, Growing, Updated, Corrected daily by 80,000 volunteer editors and content authors, Translating content into 150+ languages, and Visited daily by some 5% of worldwide Internet traffic.
Cognitive Surplus
Large-scale distributed work-force projects are impractical in theory, but doable in reality.
The Internet-connected population worldwide watches roughly a trillion hours of TV a year.
One per cent of that is 100 Wikipedia projects per year worth of peer participation.
www.shirky.com/herecomeseverybody/2008/04/looking-for-the-mouse.html
http://calacanis.com/2008/04/30/clay-shirky-cognitive-surplus-talk-at-web-2-0/
Clay Shirkey’s
2010-2012
Web3.0+
1 trillion sites
published content
Semantically-linked RW webCollectiveintelligence Smart Grid
3 billion global users
User generated content
5000 days ago Pre-Web Pre-Commercial Internet5000 days from now Global Cloud Network
Classifying user-generated informationwhere every click is a datum
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
A user interacts with items, whichhave associated metadata
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Ways users provide valuable information through their interactions
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Some ways to harness collective intelligence in your application
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Different content types
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Different content types (continued)
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Use of Wikis
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Content-based analysis, Collaborative filtering & Computing similarities
Basics of algorithms for applying Collective Intelligence
From User ClickstreamsRepresenting intelligence from unstructured text
The dot products of Multi-dimensional term vectors
Satnam Alaq, Collective Intelligence in Action, 2008
Harnessing Collective Intelligence to:Prevent Climate Catastrophe
Avert Mass Species ExtinctionPromote Green Prosperity & Well-being
UNINTENDED MOLECULAR GEOENGINEERINGWrapping Our Minds Around GHG Molecules
GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
LEED Certified Green Buildings
GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
LEED Certified Green BuildingsCA
Laguna Honda Hospital
GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
LEED Certified Green Buildings
GREEN BUILDING, Laura Ingall Commercial Green Building Manager, SF Environment
LEED Certified Green Buildings
Waste as Nutrient – Information Bitstream
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Denver Neighborhood solar smart mini-grids – City Park West
Smart Grid Web-based Solar Power Auctions
Smart Grid Collective intelligence design based on digital map algorithms continuously calculating solar gain. Information used to rank expansion of solar panel locations.
What is a Complete Street?
A Complete Street is safe, comfortable and convenient for travel via automobile, foot,
bicycle, and transit.
www.completestreets.org
Portland Oregon 1990Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
0 - 2%
2 - 3%3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%10+%
Bike Commute Mode Split
City of Portland
Dept. of Transportation
Black lines show 1990 bikeway network...
…Colors show 1990 mode splits (by census tract)
www.completestreets.org
Portland Oregon 2000Bike lanes encourage bike commuting
0 - 2%
2 - 3%3 - 5%
5 - 8%
8 - 10%10+%
Bike Commute Mode Split
City of Portland
Dept. of Transportation
Black lines show 2000 bikeway network...
…Colors show 2000 mode splits (by census tract)
www.completestreets.org
Complete canopy closureTrees planted sufficiently apart in a planting strip 10 feet wide; this spacing allowed for the crowns of individual trees to touch, encouraging development of a more natural upright form; The 10' wide planting strip allowed the trunk flare to develop appropriately State College, Pennsylvania
Success
Saint Augustine, FloridaSeattle, Washington
Water Shortages
WATER
Chinese Paddlefish(21 feet long)
21st Century Mega Freshwater Threats
>85% Freshwater Consumption – Blue and Green Water - AGRICULTURE
>40% Freshwater Use – Thermal & Hydroelectric POWER PLANTS
Many of the same or similar utility and energy policies, rules, regulations, incentives addressing climate change threat are also applicable to freshwater threats from power plants
CLIMATE IMPACTS – on Blue and Green Water systems
Aggravated by global trading expansion in virtual water imports and exports
Failure to stabilize atmospheric emissions under 450ppm could lead to 1/3rd decline in global agriculture latter half this century – leading to more land conversion and water consumption
World’s Water 2008-2009
More with Less World’s Water 2006-2007
www.worldwater.org/ www.worldwater.org//www.pacinst.org/
Water within living organisms 1%
Rivers 1%Atmospheric water vapor 8%
Soil moisture 38%
Lakes 52%
• Humanity consumes half of global freshwater flow
• No major river in the world is without existing or planned hydroelectric dams
• 2/3 of the freshwater flowing to the oceans is controlled by dams
Yet….
Global Water Consumption
579
1900 1950 2000 2025
1,382
3,973
5,235
Increasing freshwater use
Total annual water withdrawal historical & projected, in cubic kilometers
Clark, Robin & Jannet King, The Water Atlas, New Press, 2004.
• 1 billion people without safe water
• 4 billion yet to be born will need additional freshwater in decades to come
Immense Water Shortages
0.5 billion
4-5 billion
May live in countries that are
chronically short of water
lived in countries
chronically short of water
2000 2050
total population6 billion
projected population10 billion
Postel, S. L., G. C. Daily, and P. R. Ehrlich, 1996, Human appropriation of renewable fresh water, Science 271:785-788, www.sciencemag.org/; Gleick PH, et al. 2003, The world's water 2002–2003, www.pacinst.org/; Jackson, Robert B., et al., Water in a Changing World, Issues in Ecology, Technical Report, Ecological Applications, 11(4), 2001, pp. 1027–1045, Ecological Society of America, www.esapubs.org/
Climate Impact on Agricultural Productivity
William Cline, Global Warming and Agriculture, Impacts by Country 2007.
The efficiency of irrigation techniques is low and globally up to 1500 trillion liters (~400 trillion gallons) of water are wasted annually
Immense Water Waste
WWF, Dam Right! Rivers at Risk, Dams & Future of Freshwater Ecosystems, 2003
Globally, nearly 70% of water withdrawals go to irrigated agriculture, yet conventional irrigation can waste as much as 80% of the water.
Such waste is driven by misplaced subsidies and artificially low water prices, often unconnected to the amount of water used.
Drip irrigation systems for water intensive crops such as cotton can mean water savings of up to 80% compared to conventional flood irrigation systems, but these techniques are out of reach for most small farmers.
Currently drip irrigation accounts for only 1% of the world’s irrigated area.
Soft Water PathMore productive, Less cost, Less damage
Gleick, Peter H., Global Freshwater Resources: Soft-Path Solutions for the 21st Century, State of the Planet Special, Science, Nov. 28, 2003 V. 302, pp.1524-28, www.pacinst.org/
USA 2483 m3/cap/yr
WORLD 1243 m3/cap/yr
INDIA 980 m3/cap/yr
CHINA 702 m3/cap/yr
water footprints of the USA, World avg, China and India Period: 1997–2001
A. Y. Hoekstra · A. K. Chapagain, Water footprints of nations: Water use by people as a function of their consumption pattern, Water Resources Management, (2007) 21:35–48
In 2000, an estimated 195,000 Mgal/d, or 219 million acre-feet per year, were withdrawn for thermoelectric power.• The least efficient water-cooled plants use as much as 50 gallons of water per (kWh.• Water quality is affected by water use at power plants because of the effects of the temperature of discharged cooling water and the conditioning agents used to treat cooling water
USA Water Use
Figures of MeritGreat Plains area
1,200,000 mi2
Provide 100% U.S. electricity400,000 2MW wind turbines
Platform footprint6 mi2
Large Wyoming Strip Mine>6 mi2
Total Wind spacing area 37,500 mi2
Still available for farming and prairie restoration
90%+ (34,000 mi2)
CO2 U.S. electricity sector40%
95% of U.S. terrestrial wind resources in Great Plains
$0 $50 $100 $150 $200 $250
windpower farm
non-wind farm
US Farm Revenues per hectare
govt. subsidy $0 $60windpower royalty $200 $0farm commodity revenues $50 $64
windpower farm non-wind farm
Williams, Robert, Nuclear and Alternative Energy Supply Options for an Environmentally Constrained World, April 9, 2001, http://www.nci.org/
Wind Royalties – Sustainable source of Rural Farm and Ranch Income
Crop revenue Govt. subsidy
Wind profits
The three sub-regions of the Great Plains are: Northern Great Plains = Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota; Central Great Plains = Wyoming, Nebraska, Colorado, Kansas; Southern Great Plains = Oklahoma, New Mexico, and Texas. (Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis 1998, USDA 1997 Census of Agriculture)
Although agriculture controls about 70% of Great Plains land area, it contributes 4 to 8% of the Gross Regional Product.
Wind farms could enable one of the greatest economic booms in American history for Great Plains rural communities, while also enabling one of world’s largest restorations of native prairie ecosystems
How?
Wind Farm Royalties – Could Doublefarm/ranch income with 30x less land area
1) Restoring the deep-rooting, native prairie grasslands that absorb and store soil carbon and stop soil erosion (hence generating a potential revenue stream from selling CO2 mitigation credits in the emerging global carbon trading market);
Potential Synergisms
2) Re-introducing free-ranging bison into these prairie grasslands --which naturally co-evolved together for millennia -- generating a potential revenue stream from marketing high-value organic, free-range beef.
Two additional potential revenue streams in Great Plains:
Also More Resilient to Climate-triggered
Droughts
Reverse Osmosis estimates considered valid for China today ranges from a cost of $0.60 per m3
(1000 liters) for brackish and wastewater desalination to $1 per m3
for seawater desalination by RO.
Extrapolating from technological trends, and the promise of ongoing innovations in lower-cost, higher performance membranes, seawater desalination costs will continue to fall. The average cost may decline to $0.30 per m3 in 2025.
Reverse Osmosis (RO) of Wastewater
For comparison, China’s average water prices are about $0.20 to $0.25 per m3 for domestic and industrial use, and $0.34 per m3 for commercial use, to a high of $0.60/m3
in Tianjin and Dalian.
China’s State Council is moving to raise the price of urban water supply in Beijing to $0.72 per m3.
This reverse-osmosis plant in Ashkelon, Israel, will eventually turn out 100 million cubic meters of fresh water a year, at a cost of $0.53 cents per m3, the cheapest ever by a desalination facility.
RO of Wastewater into Clean Water
Desalination of wastewater has double benefits: it reduces contaminated discharges directly into rivers, and instead, economically expands the city’s freshwater supplies rather than importing remote water resources.
China’s total wastewater discharges annually exceed 60 km3,(16 trillion gallons), and less than one-seventh of this wastewater was treated as of the late 1990s.
Close to 600 million Chinese people have water supplies that are contaminated by animal and human waste.
Harnessing 30 GW of cogeneration available in cities and industrial facilities potentially could operate reverse osmosis technologies to purify these wastewaters, while also providing ancillary energy services like space and water heating & cooling, etc.
RO & CHP Synergism for Clean Water
And the Slides Go On
A Decade of Immense Financial Loss, Human Tragedy & Time Squandered
NOW UNSAFE, UNSECURE, UNSUSTAINABLEFirst documented in the 1980 Dept. of Defense funded report
www.armsflow.org/
Arms Flow -- $1 trillion per year
1950 2005
Half to 75% of all natural resource consumption becomes pollution and waste within 12 months.
E. Matthews et al., The Weight of Nations, 2000, www.wri.org/
Closing the Loop – Reducing Use of Virgin Resources & Increasing Reuse of Waste Nutrients
Environmental/ health
externalities $10+ trillion
Military/ Security
externalities $10+ trillion
USA Energy expenditures 1975-2000
$25 trillion energy costs
$325 billion Dept of Energy
4% for all efficiency & 5% all renewables
Current Public R&D Priorities Do Not RepresentCustomer-focused, Retail-driven Solutions
$8 trillion losses price
volatlity
Status Quo Retail-driven Scenario
2/3 efficiency
solar, wind biofuels
• Lower energy costs
• Lower price volatility
• Lower Environmental & Health externalities
• Lower military & security externalities
DOE budget
Priorities PrioritiesOutcomes OutcomesOil industryUtility industryCoal industryNatural gas industryNuclear industryLarge Hydro industry
ConsumersRetailersSuppliersManufacturersNatural resource sector
High energy costsVolatile PricesSecurity vulnerabilityHigher pollution levelsLong-term environmental damage
• Shift of capital from utility sector to retail sector
• Greening supply chain out of avoided utility costs
• Tax-free reductions in air & water pollution
2007-2030
What a Retail-oriented R&D Strategy Can DoSupporting long-term stable funding for basic and applied R&D of energy, water and resource efficiency in the residential, commercial, industrial, agricultural sectors, plus combined heat and power (CHP), solar photovoltaics, windpower, and cellulosic biofuels, ensures a continuous pipeline of new production methods for commercializing higher performance, lower cost and less polluting goods.
Supporting continuous updating of Technology Road Maps ensures identifying new trends and emergent opportunities.