Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat 

Principal Scientists 

Fernandes, J.M.C.,  Del Ponte, E. M.2 , Pavan3, W. and Cunha, G. R.1 1. Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University. 50011,

Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil.

Agriculture Crops:Wheat

Abiotic FactorsBiotic Factors

WHEAT DISEASES

Powdery mildewGlume blotch

Tan spot

Spot blotch

Take allBYDV

Blast

Leaf rust

Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables

FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT

Mycotoxins

DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat Zero Barley

+PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE

HOST

=

FHB

+WEATHER(P, T ºC)

FHB Model

WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO

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2002231

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2002232

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2002233

0.30

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2002234

0.60

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2002235

0.42

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2002236

0.26

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2002237

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2002238

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2002239

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2002240

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2002241

0.4

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002242

0.39

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Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002243

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Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002244

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Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002245

0.04

Flowers: 114

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002246

0.0

Flowers: 156

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 495

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002247

0.0

Flowers: 212

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 719

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1078

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002248

0.0

Flowers: 134

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 886

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1418

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1595

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002249

0.4

Flowers: 225

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 486

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1636

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 1951

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1788

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002250

0.0

Flowers: 198

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 713

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 502

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 1926

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1839

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1453

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

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2002251

0.0

Flowers: 243Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 889

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1497

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 732

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 2331

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1958

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1294

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002252

0.0

Flowers: 172

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 1094

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1923

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 2471

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1187

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 2652

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1885

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1136

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002253

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Flowers: 287

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 798

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 2355

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 3151

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 3361

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1732

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 2399

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1555

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 843

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002254

0.0

Flowers: 287

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 798

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 2355

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 3151

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 3361

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1732

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 2399

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1555

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 843

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002255

0.35

Flowers: 238

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers:927

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1027

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 2861

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 3149

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 2998

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1453

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1879

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 1092

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers:536

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002256

0.3

Flowers: 176

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers:971

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 3,59

Flowers: 1724

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 4,95

Flowers: 1183

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 5,93

Flowers: 3035

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 6,76

Flowers: 2878

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 5,03

Flowers: 2253

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 4,19

Flowers: 855

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 3,15

Flowers: 1200

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 1,04

Flowers:622

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 0,62

Flowers: 253

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0,31

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002257

0.14

Flowers: 32

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers:1119

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 2003

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 7.65

Flowers: 2652

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 10.71

Flowers: 1509

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 11.08

Flowers: 3127

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 9.36

Flowers: 2442

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 7.80

Flowers: 1694

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 5.85

Flowers: 468

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 2.85

Flowers:709

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 1.17

Flowers: 306

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0.58

Flowers: 83

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.09

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002258

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers:647

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 2370

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 3194

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 12.47

Flowers: 3455

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 13.10

Flowers: 1900

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 11.38

Flowers: 2630

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 9.48

Flowers: 1823

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 7.11

Flowers: 1102

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 3.69

Flowers:211

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 1.67

Flowers: 333

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0.71

Flowers: 95

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.13

Flowers: 76

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.02

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002259

0.4

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers:303

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 1048

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 2916

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 12.47

Flowers: 3256

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 13.10

Flowers: 3174

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 11.38

Flowers: 1682

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 9.48

Flowers: 2136

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 7.11

Flowers: 1335

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 3.69

Flowers:733

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 1.67

Flowers: 125

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 0.71

Flowers: 113

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.13

Flowers: 97

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.02

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002260

0.60

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 393

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 1220

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 3108

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 18.86

Flowers: 3001

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 17.13

Flowers: 2416

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 14.28

Flowers: 1043

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 10.70

Flowers: 1384

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 6.09

Flowers:776

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads:3.11

Flowers: 355

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 1.43

Flowers: 43

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.37

Flowers: 112

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.14

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002261

0.42

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 19

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 567

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 1593

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 27.50

Flowers: 3258

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 25.78

Flowers: 2610

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 21.48

Flowers: 1880

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 16.11

Flowers: 645

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 9.69

Flowers: 854

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 5.27

Flowers: 401

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 2.51

Flowers: 123

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.73

Flowers: 48

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.50

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002262

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 428

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 3501

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 1977

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 2734

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 26.52

Flowers: 1945

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 19.89

Flowers: 1224

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 12.21

Flowers: 317

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 6.79

Flowers: 407

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 3.28

Flowers: 127

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.98

Flowers: 117

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.76

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002263

0.36

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 2950

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 1368

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 1759

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 2228

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1431

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 14.94

Flowers: 820

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 8.42

Flowers: 187

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4,09

Flowers: 141

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.26

Flowers: 135

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.03

FHB - SIMULATION

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2002264

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 2239

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 567

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 1029

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 938

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1420

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 811

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 382

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 56

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 130

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002265

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 462

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 448

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 639

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 852

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 403

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 125

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 53

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002266

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1222

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 316

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 408

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 128

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 120

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002267

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1464

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 850

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 209

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 151

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 150

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002268

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1325

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 738

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 406

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 68

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 145

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002269

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 269

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 100

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 22

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002270

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 92

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 14

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002271

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002272

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002273

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002274

0.39

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002275

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002276

0.19

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002277

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002278

0.35

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002279

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002280

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Incidence = 65 %

Severe

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002281

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Incidence = 65 %

Severe

observed FHB index (%)

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27

devi

atio

ns (

%)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and

develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems

in the Argentinean , Brazilian andUruguayan Pampas

Principal Scientists 

• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina

• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil• J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil

• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay

• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia

CROP MODELS

DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer

Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables)

FHB Sub-modelHeading starts

Weather inputsHistoric daily weatherScenario daily weather

Wheat crop model

Agronomic inputsEarly spring wheatNine sowing datesThree-day intervalsSoil properties

Model outputFHB incidence

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO

Important Points

Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk

More frequent FHB epidemics

Raise food safety concerns

There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat

Decision Support System

Apple diseases Warning SystemFusarium Head Blight System