Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

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Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat Principal Scientists Fernandes, J.M.C., Del Ponte, E. M. 2 , Pavan 3 , W. and Cunha, G. R. 1 1. Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University. 50011, Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil.

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Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat. Principal Scientists  - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Transcript of Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Page 1: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat 

Principal Scientists 

Fernandes, J.M.C.,  Del Ponte, E. M.2 , Pavan3, W. and Cunha, G. R.1 1. Embrapa Trigo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil; 2 Department of Plant Patholoy, Iowa State University. 50011,

Ames, IA, USA; 3 ICEG, University of Passo Fundo, Passo Fundo, RS, 99001-970, Brazil.

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Agriculture Crops:Wheat

Abiotic FactorsBiotic Factors

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WHEAT DISEASES

Powdery mildewGlume blotch

Tan spot

Spot blotch

Take allBYDV

Blast

Leaf rust

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Window of susceptibility Highly influenced by weather variables

FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT OF WHEAT

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Mycotoxins

DON – Deoxynivalenol – (0.5 ppm) Wheat Zero Barley

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+PATHOGENSUSCETIBLE

HOST

=

FHB

+WEATHER(P, T ºC)

FHB Model

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WHEAT-FHB MODEL DEMO

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Flowers: 114

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 16

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Flowers: 1078

Heads: 30

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Heads: 48

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Flowers: 134

Heads: 4

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Flowers: 886

Heads: 16

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Flowers: 1418

Heads: 30

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Flowers: 225

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 486

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1636

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 1951

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1788

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

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Flowers: 198

Heads: 4

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Flowers: 713

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 502

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 1926

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1839

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1453

Heads: 48

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Flowers: 243Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 889

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1497

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 732

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 2331

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1958

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 40

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Flowers: 172

Heads: 4

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Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 1923

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 2471

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 1187

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 2652

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 40

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Flowers: 287

Heads: 4

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Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 1.92

Flowers: 2355

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 1.8

Flowers: 3151

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

Flowers: 3361

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 1.72

Flowers: 1732

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 0

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Heads: 16

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Flowers: 3151

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 2.52

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Flowers: 2442

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Flowers: 2630

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Heads: 42

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Flowers: 3174

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Flowers: 1682

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Inf.Heads: 9.48

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Heads: 30

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Flowers: 1335

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 3.69

Flowers:733

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 1.67

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Inf.Heads: 0.71

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Flowers: 0

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Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 393

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Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 1220

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 3108

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 18.86

Flowers: 3001

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 17.13

Flowers: 2416

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 14.28

Flowers: 1043

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 10.70

Flowers: 1384

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 6.09

Flowers:776

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads:3.11

Flowers: 355

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Inf.Heads: 1.43

Flowers: 43

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.37

Flowers: 112

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Inf.Heads: 0.14

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Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 19

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 567

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 1593

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 27.50

Flowers: 3258

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 25.78

Flowers: 2610

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 21.48

Flowers: 1880

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 16.11

Flowers: 645

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 9.69

Flowers: 854

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 5.27

Flowers: 401

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 2.51

Flowers: 123

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.73

Flowers: 48

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.50

FHB - SIMULATION

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Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002262

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 428

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 3501

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 1977

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 2734

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 26.52

Flowers: 1945

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 19.89

Flowers: 1224

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 12.21

Flowers: 317

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 6.79

Flowers: 407

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 3.28

Flowers: 127

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.98

Flowers: 117

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 0.76

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 40: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002263

0.36

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 2950

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 1368

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 1759

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 2228

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1431

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads: 14.94

Flowers: 820

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 8.42

Flowers: 187

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4,09

Flowers: 141

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.26

Flowers: 135

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.03

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 41: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002264

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 2239

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 567

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 1029

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 938

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1420

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 811

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 382

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 56

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 130

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 42: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002265

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 462

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 448

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 639

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 852

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 403

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 125

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 53

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 43: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002266

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1222

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 316

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 408

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 128

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 120

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 44: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002267

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1464

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 850

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 209

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 151

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 150

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 45: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002268

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 1325

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 738

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 406

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 68

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 145

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 46: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002269

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 269

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 100

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 22

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 47: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002270

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 92

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 14

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 48: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002271

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 49: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002272

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 50: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002273

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 51: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002274

0.39

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 52: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002275

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 53: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002276

0.19

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 54: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002277

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 55: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002278

0.35

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 56: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002279

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Page 57: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002280

0.0

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Incidence = 65 %

Severe

Page 58: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Day: ||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||

2002281

0.45

Flowers: 0

Heads: 4

Inf.Heads: 0.48

Flowers: 0

Heads: 16

Inf.Heads: 5.04

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 8.91

Flowers: 0

Heads: 42

Inf.Heads: 17.51

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads: 33.55

Flowers: 0

Heads: 48

Inf.Heads:31.82

Flowers: 0

Heads: 40

Inf.Heads: 31.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 30

Inf.Heads: 23.98

Flowers: 0

Heads: 20

Inf.Heads:17.10

Flowers: 0

Heads: 12

Inf.Heads: 9.72

Flowers: 0

Heads: 6

Inf.Heads: 4.74

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.47

Flowers: 0

Heads: 2

Inf.Heads: 1.25

FHB - SIMULATION

Incidence = 65 %

Severe

Page 59: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat
Page 60: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

observed FHB index (%)

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27

devi

atio

ns (

%)

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

Page 61: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and

develop adaptation responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems

in the Argentinean , Brazilian andUruguayan Pampas

Principal Scientists 

• Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina• María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina• Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina

• Gilberto Cunha, Brazil• J. Mauricio Fernandes, Brazil

• Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay• Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay

• Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia

Page 62: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

CROP MODELS

DSSAT - Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer

Wheat Model (Soil-H20, Soil N, Plant phenology, biomass, weather variables)

FHB Sub-modelHeading starts

Page 63: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Weather inputsHistoric daily weatherScenario daily weather

Wheat crop model

Agronomic inputsEarly spring wheatNine sowing datesThree-day intervalsSoil properties

Model outputFHB incidence

Page 64: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat
Page 65: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1931-1965

Page 66: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA 1966-1999

Page 67: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

FHB INC LA ESTANZUELA SCENARIO

Page 68: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Important Points

Models using climatic variability and trend analysis are tools for defining FHB-risk

More frequent FHB epidemics

Raise food safety concerns

There is a need for breeding more resistant wheat

Page 69: Web-based system to true-forecast disease epidemics – case study for Fusarium Head Blight of wheat

Decision Support System

Apple diseases Warning SystemFusarium Head Blight System

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Epidemics and control of early & late blight, 2013 & 14 in ... · Late Blight Country Reports . Objective. Objective: To provide an overview of the late blight seasons in Europe Support

Epidemics and control of early & late blight, 2013 & 14 in ... · Late Blight Country Reports . Objective. Objective: To provide an overview of the late blight seasons in Europe Support

Factors Affecting Fusarium Blight Developmentarchive.lib.msu.edu/tic/wetrt/article/1976jul35.pdf · Host Resistance Ranked in order of ... Factors Affecting Fusarium Blight Development

Factors Affecting Fusarium Blight Developmentarchive.lib.msu.edu/tic/wetrt/article/1976jul35.pdf · Host Resistance Ranked in order of ... Factors Affecting Fusarium Blight Development

Disease Profile: Fusarium Head Blight (Scab) of Wheat · 2017-06-28 · Fusarium head blight (FHB) or scab is a fungal disease that affects wheat, barley, oats, corn, and many grasses.

Disease Profile: Fusarium Head Blight (Scab) of Wheat · 2017-06-28 · Fusarium head blight (FHB) or scab is a fungal disease that affects wheat, barley, oats, corn, and many grasses.

Fusarium Head Blight (scab) of Wheat and Barleystore.msuextension.org/publications/AgandNaturalResources/MT200806... · Fusarium Head Blight (scab) of Wheat and Barley. FUSARIUM HEAD

Fusarium Head Blight (scab) of Wheat and Barleystore.msuextension.org/publications/AgandNaturalResources/MT200806... · Fusarium Head Blight (scab) of Wheat and Barley. FUSARIUM HEAD

Fusarium in wheat - orgprints.org · Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is involved in two quality items: • If present on seeds, it will negatively influence the germination and the seedling

Fusarium in wheat - orgprints.org · Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) is involved in two quality items: • If present on seeds, it will negatively influence the germination and the seedling

Fusarium in wheat - orgprints.orgorgprints.org/15859/1/Fusarium_in_wheat.pdf · Introduction 11 1 Introduction Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a serious problem in wheat cultivation.

Fusarium in wheat - orgprints.orgorgprints.org/15859/1/Fusarium_in_wheat.pdf · Introduction 11 1 Introduction Fusarium head blight (FHB) is a serious problem in wheat cultivation.

Fusarium head blight incidence and detection of Fusarium ... · Fusarium head blight incidence and detection of Fusarium toxins in wheat in relation to agronomic factors A. Wenda-Piesik

Fusarium head blight incidence and detection of Fusarium ... · Fusarium head blight incidence and detection of Fusarium toxins in wheat in relation to agronomic factors A. Wenda-Piesik

THE ROLE OF PLANT HORMONES IN FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT …

THE ROLE OF PLANT HORMONES IN FUSARIUM HEAD BLIGHT …

Identification+and+ControlofFusarium+Head+Blight+(Scab)+ of+Wheat… · 2015. 5. 18. · Wheat field located in south Georgia showing severe Fusarium Head Blight (FHB)/Scab infection

Identification+and+ControlofFusarium+Head+Blight+(Scab)+ of+Wheat… · 2015. 5. 18. · Wheat field located in south Georgia showing severe Fusarium Head Blight (FHB)/Scab infection

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of Cereals A Disease of Concern For …FILE/ARDfhbposterver6.pdf · 2019. 10. 25. · Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of Cereals A Disease of Concern For Alberta!

Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of Cereals A Disease of Concern For …FILE/ARDfhbposterver6.pdf · 2019. 10. 25. · Fusarium Head Blight (FHB) of Cereals A Disease of Concern For Alberta!

Stategic Planning for Mitigation of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheatumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/agronomists_conf/media/Brule... · 2020-03-02 · Stategic Planning for Mitigation of Fusarium

Stategic Planning for Mitigation of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheatumanitoba.ca/faculties/afs/agronomists_conf/media/Brule... · 2020-03-02 · Stategic Planning for Mitigation of Fusarium

Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat - University of Nebraska–Lincoln

Fusarium Head Blight of Wheat - University of Nebraska–Lincoln

Chapter 14. Potato Productionedis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/CV/CV13100.pdf · potato diseases, such as early blight, late blight, soft rot and Fusarium dry rot. Marcy. Marcy is a white-flesh

Chapter 14. Potato Productionedis.ifas.ufl.edu/pdffiles/CV/CV13100.pdf · potato diseases, such as early blight, late blight, soft rot and Fusarium dry rot. Marcy. Marcy is a white-flesh

Economic Impacts of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheatageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/23437/1/aer396.pdf · Agricultural Economics Report No. 396 June 1998 Economic Impacts of Fusarium

Economic Impacts of Fusarium Head Blight in Wheatageconsearch.umn.edu/bitstream/23437/1/aer396.pdf · Agricultural Economics Report No. 396 June 1998 Economic Impacts of Fusarium

Relationship between Wheat Head Blight Levels and ... · FHB (Fusarium head blight) or scab, caused by different species of Fusarium, is a serious worldwide disease of wheat (Triticum

Relationship between Wheat Head Blight Levels and ... · FHB (Fusarium head blight) or scab, caused by different species of Fusarium, is a serious worldwide disease of wheat (Triticum

Kosová_Cereal Resistance to Fusarium Head Blight and Possibilities

Kosová_Cereal Resistance to Fusarium Head Blight and Possibilities

Wheat Disease Identification - For Your Information · Fusarium head blight Symptoms of Fusarium head blight include tan or light brown lesions encompassing one or more spikelets.

Wheat Disease Identification - For Your Information · Fusarium head blight Symptoms of Fusarium head blight include tan or light brown lesions encompassing one or more spikelets.

ASSOCIATION MAPPING FOR DETECTING QTLS FOR FUSARIUM …€¦ · association mapping for detecting qtls for fusarium head blight and yellow rust resistance in bread wheat by carlos

ASSOCIATION MAPPING FOR DETECTING QTLS FOR FUSARIUM …€¦ · association mapping for detecting qtls for fusarium head blight and yellow rust resistance in bread wheat by carlos

Understanding the basis of resistance to Fusarium head ... · PDF fileUnderstanding the basis of resistance to Fusarium head blight in UK winter wheat (REFAM) by P. Nicholson1, ...

Understanding the basis of resistance to Fusarium head ... · PDF fileUnderstanding the basis of resistance to Fusarium head blight in UK winter wheat (REFAM) by P. Nicholson1, ...

Update on Fusarium Head Blight Forecasting Erick De Wolf, Denis Shah, Peirce Paul, and Larry Madden.

Update on Fusarium Head Blight Forecasting Erick De Wolf, Denis Shah, Peirce Paul, and Larry Madden.