Post on 23-Dec-2015
Water Conflict: Global Issues and
Cooperative Opportunities
Sandra Ruckstuhl, PhD2010 Summer Teacher Institute
University of Chicago29 June 2010
Structure of PresentationCONF 695 Water and Conflict
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Environmental Conflict
Water Conflict
Water and Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
Cases
Conclusion
CONF 695: Water and ConflictIntegrate conflict theory, water concepts, and
case literature
Case study approach to highlight social and environmental challenges and perspectives at different levels
Critical thinking and internal debate
Guest speakers from the field
Student presentations – on cases, on research, on policy proposals
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Principles
Conflict studies = analysis and resolution
Interdisciplinary - social psychology, international re, development studies, cultural studies
Promotes critical thinking about social relationships, needs, aspirations and power between individuals and groups
Conflict is not necessarily bad (innovation)
Violence is a negative manifestation of conflict
Cooperation is an inherent opportunity in everything
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Christopher Mitchell’s SPITCEROW Model
S = SourcesP = PartiesI = Issues and interestsT = TacticsC = ChangesE = EnlargementR = RolesO = OutcomesW = Winner
Conflict Analysis and Resolution
Dennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2Conflict Conditions
Individual levelSocietal levelInternational levelGlobal/ecological level
PILLAR 1Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)IssuesObjectivesMeansConflict-handling
orientationsConflict environment
PILLAR 3Conflict Resolution
PreventionManagementSettlementResolutionTransformation
Environmental ConflictWhat is it?
“Environmental conflict” boils down to conflict (or “disputes”) over environmental resources.
Analysis = What is the nature of these disputes?
Resolution = How can we address them?
Environmental ConflictWhat are the “resources”?
Conflict over non-renewable (finite) resources Minerals (diamonds, oil, coltan) Land (property rights)
Conflict over renewable resources Forests and timber Air Water
Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?
The environment (water resources included) is neither a necessary nor
sufficient cause of violent conflict
Environmental ConflictWhat are the dynamics?
RELATIVE SCARCITY + POOR INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITY = POTENTIAL CONFLICT
Supply-, demand-, structurally driven scarcity leads to conflict (Homer-Dixon 1999)
Demographic stress (environment + population) leads to state failure/exploitation (Kahl 2002)
Differential power and differential impacts of environmental degradation (Peluso and Watts 2001)
BUT if we think critically and creatively human ingenuity can overcome…
Water Conflict
History demonstrates peace and cooperation in
managing shared water resources.
But as the environment and institutions change this pattern
could change too.
Water ConflictPopular coverage of and rhetoric around
international “water wars”
Indirect role in intrastate, rather than interstate, violent conflict
Internal fragility associated with inequity of water scarcity problems
Problems with quality and quantity
Water Conflict Environmental change (including
global warming) means more water in some areas, less water in others, and pollution worldwide
Environmental change can cause social stress and lead to conflict if institutions cannot adjust to those changes in a productive way
Water Conflict
•Drought
•Flood & inundation
•Landslide
•Desertification
•Contamination
•Epidemic & disease
•Dispute, even conflict
•Healthy people
•Healthy ecosystems
•Food production
•Energy production
•Navigation
•Cultural Value
•Cooperation
A source of A source of destruction, poverty destruction, poverty & dispute & dispute
A source of A source of production, growth & production, growth & cooperationcooperation
Conflict Analysis and ResolutionDennis Sandole’s Three Pillar Model
PILLAR 2Conflict Conditions
Individual levelSocietal levelInternational levelGlobal/ecological level
PILLAR 1Conflict Sources
Parties (violent)IssuesObjectivesMeansConflict-handling
orientationsConflict environment
PILLAR 3Conflict Resolution
PreventionManagementSettlementResolutionTransformation
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties
There are many different users of water:
Water for people (supply and sanitation)
Water for environment (ecosystems)
Water for food (irrigation)
Water for energy (hydropower)
Water for other purposes (e.g., culture or religion)
They have different, sometimes competing needs.
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties
upstream vs. downstream
urban vs. rural
rich vs. poor
haves vs. have-nots
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Parties
Water resources (e.g., rivers, aquifers, lakes) cross different kinds of jurisdictional lines
Interstate
Intrastate
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues
Relative scarcity + institutional capacity deficiencies = conflict
Ownership Who has the right to it?
Consumption How should it be used?
Distribution Who has access and who does not?
Management How should it be governed?
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues
Category Type
Renewable natural resource changes
Quality
Quantity
Temporal
Variability
Other physical changes
Demographic
Infrastructure
Relational changes Behavioral
Parties (individuals and groups)
Institutions
Power and influence
Conflict tactics
Eco-economic changes
Value of and relationship to the resources
Three Pillar ModelConflict Sources: Issues
Direct/indirect control over resources = power
Control over supply (domestic and industry)
Control over food production (domestic and export)
Control over environment (drought and flood)
Control over health issues (diseases)
Control over energy production (hydropower)
Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: Societal/International
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD DTC OECD
Population (billions)
MegacitiesCitiesTownsOther ruralFragile lands
1950 1970 2000 2030 2050
Projected Population Developing & Transition Countries (DTC) and OECD
Rapid urban growth in secondary cities & towns
Still many in fragile rural areas
Mega cities
Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions: International
More than 260 river basins with more than 2 countries…
Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions
Physical Effects of Climate Change
Increased variability, availability and access to resources Changes in precipitation Glacial melt Reduced quality of land (erosion, contamination) Increased desertification Changes to crop seasons Changes in biodiversity
Rising sea levels Flooding coastal areas, including urban habitats and farmland Disruption of aquatic habitats and fish populations
Natural disasters and extreme weather events (i.e. hurricanes, flash floods, droughts, landslides, wild fires, spread of disease and pestilence)
Three Pillar ModelConflict Conditions
Social Impacts of Climate Change
Loss of livelihoodsEconomic shocks and instabilityFood shortages and food insecurityHuman health impacts (e.g. disease)Food insecurityTrade relationsMigrationPolitical instability and state fragilitySpillover effects impacting neighboring areas
Inequitable impacts and social tensions
Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution
Conflict prevention (early intervention/diplomacy)
Conflict management (security operations and peacekeeping)
Conflict settlement (coercive peacemaking)
Conflict resolution (non-coercive peacemaking)
Conflict transformation (social cohesion, resilience, capacity)
Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution
Building capacity to deal with conflict:
Organizations(e.g., policy and official administrative structures)
and
Institutions(e.g., norms, values, perceptions, behaviors,
knowledge)
Three Pillar ModelConflict Resolution
Environmental Peacebuilding
Capitalizes on ecological interdependencies to promote social, economic, and political relationships through joint environmental management and benefit sharing
Opportunities both for prevention and transformation are everywhere…