U.S. GODAE: Global U.S. GODAE: Global Ocean Prediction with Ocean Prediction with

Community Effort:Community Effort: NRL, U. of Miami, FSU, NASA-GISS, NOAA/NCEP, NOAA/AOML, NOAA/PMEL, PSI, FNMOC, NAVOCEANO, SHOM, LEGI, OPeNDAP, UNC, Rutgers, USF, Fugro-GEOS, Orbimage, Shell, ExxonMobil

Example of commercial usersExample of commercial users

• OCENS (www.ocens.com) is a Seattle, Washington company delivering weather and ocean data to at-sea users around the world.

• METEOREM (www.meteorem.com) provides ocean and weather forecasts to marinas, fishing fleets, etc.

• ROFFS (www.roffs.com) consist of fisheries oceanographers that use satellite and other oceanographic and meteorological data

• Horizon Marine, Inc. (www.horizonmarine.com)• Orbimage (www.orbimage.com)• Shell (www.shell.com)• Exxon-Mobil (www.exxonmobil.com)• Ocean Numerics (www.oceannumerics.com)• Etc.

ROFFS™ FISHING ROFFS™ FISHING OCEANOGRAPHIC ANALYSISOCEANOGRAPHIC ANALYSIS

ROFFS™ TECHNIQUEROFFS™ TECHNIQUE

• TAKE AN REPRESENTATIVE IMAGE• TRACE THE WATER MASS

BOUNDARIES• COMPARE TO PREVIOUS DAY• COMPARE TO TWO DAYS AGO …..

– TIME HISTORY OVER GOOD BOTTOM• GRADIENT STRENGTH• VELOCITY OF WATER• OTHER CIRCULATION FACTORS

– LOCAL & REGIONAL– PERSISTENCE & CLIMATOLOGY

– LOCAL & REGIONAL WINDS

CLOUDS ARE CLOUDS ARE A MAJOR PROBLEMA MAJOR PROBLEM

• SST and OCEAN COLOR NOT ALWAYS AVAILABLE

• USE ALTIMETERS– VALID DATA TWICE A WEEK– VISUALIZATION OF FRONTAL

BOUNDARIES A PROBLEM

• USE HYCOM PRESENTLY FOR GUIDANCE NOT FOR DETAILS– VALIDATION NEEDED -> TRUST

ROFFS™ 13 July 2007ROFFS™ 13 July 2007

ROFFS™ ROFFS™ VSVS HYCOM HYCOM

Example of scientific usersExample of scientific users

• Provision of boundary conditions for regional systems

• Hurricane research

• Provision of velocity fields for comparison to glider measurements, moorings, etc.

• Etc.

George Halliwell, Nick ShayRosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science

University of Miami, Miami, FL

William TeagueNaval Research Laboratory, Stennis Space Center, MS

Evaluation of the Simulated Ocean

Response to Hurricane Ivan in Comparison to High-Quality

Ocean Observations

JGR, revised

Observed SST Response to IvanObserved SST Response to Ivan

AVHRR (Walker et al, 2005)

Microwave satellite (Remote Sensing Systems)

Ivan IntensityIvan Intensity

Pre-Ivan

OHC Maps from the NCODA GOM Nowcast

Ivan SimulationIvan Simulation• Run within the 1/25° GOM Domain• Initial and Boundary Conditions from NCODA• GISS Vertical Mixing• Atmospheric Forcing

– Very important - must resolve the inner core of the storm– Start with the 0.5-degree NOGAPS forcing

• Problems:– Eye and eyewall poorly resolved– Maximum winds underestimated by 30-40%

– Blend NOGAPS wind field with HWIND gridded vector wind fields from NOAA/HRD

• Produce wind speed and wind stress forcing fields that resolve the inner core structure

SSH, 10 Sept. 2004SSH, 10 Sept. 2004

Simulated SST Response to IvanSimulated SST Response to Ivan

SST (C) Before and After IvanSST (C) Before and After Ivan

Depth-Time Temperature VariabilityDepth-Time Temperature Variability

SEED Moorings and Ivan PathSEED Moorings and Ivan Path

9

u v0

150 Observations

GISS

Observations

KPP KPP

MY

GISS

MY