Post on 29-Jun-2020
U.S. Energy Demand,Offshore Oil Production and
BP’s Macondo Well Spill
Tad Patzek, Petroleum & Geosystems Engineering, UT AustinDepartment of Physics, Wheeler Lecture Hall, September 1, 2010, 4:00 p.m.
Technology. . .. . . Challenges and reveals the Earth:
“Such challenging happens in that the energyconcealed in nature is unlocked, what is unlocked istransformed, what is transformed is stored up, whatis stored up is in turn distributed, and what isdistributed is switched about ever anew. ”
“Everywhere everything is ordered to stand by, to beimmediately on hand, indeed to stand there just sothat it may be on call for a further ordering.”
Technology is a “standing-reserve” of energy forhumans to order nature and, in turn, be enframed bytheir technology.
Martin Heidegger, The Question Concerning Technology, 1954
– p.1/40
In Plain English. . .What Heidegger meant is:
We are an impatient species that regards astanding-reserve of energy as a must
Since we cannot control technology, technologycannot be our tool to control nature
We are a part of technology
We tend to think of technology as an instrument thatis outside of us. Instead, we are a part of a biggersystem that comprises us and technology
PE departments form well-rounded petroleumengineers, and deliver science and technology toO&G Industry, while trying to educate all ontechnology’s impacts on the Earth and society(?)
– p.2/40
Talk Outline. . .
Fuels that run the U.S.
Complexity, models, risks
Gulf of Mexico’s oil and gas production
Conclusions
– p.3/40
Summary of Conclusions. . .
The global rate of production of oil is peaking now,coal will peak in 2-5 years, and natural gas in 20-30years
There is PLENTY of fossil fuels (“resources”) left allover the Earth
The resource size (current balance of a bankingaccount) is mistakenly equated with the speed ofdrawing it down (ATM withdrawals)
Few understand the ever more stringent dailywithdrawal limits imposed by nature on our ATMcards (oil & gas wells and coal mines)
Until we all learn about our limitations, we willcontinue to hallucinate about energy and technology
– p.4/40
Summary of Conclusions. . .Economists, business people, and policy makersgenerally have poor understanding of banking, be itan AIG or a Prudhoe Bay
They know what the rate of withdrawals (energydemand) should be, but have little idea about thewithdrawal limits (energy supply)
Offshore fields will be producing an increasingportion of global oil supply
Energy flow-based solutions (wind turbines,photovoltaics, and biofuels) will require most radicalchanges of our lifestyles
Thermodynamically, industrial-scale biofuels are notsustainable, and will quickly degrade and destroy theEarth’s most vital ecosystems
– p.5/40
U.S. Energy IndependenceFossil fuels run 85 percent of U.S.economy directly, and the remainderhas a variable but non-negligiblefossil fuel content
Electricity is produced almost entirelyfrom domestic energy sources
Natural gas is the swing fuel forelectricity generation
Natural gas could aid in theelectrification of railroads
Natural gas could supplementpetroleum as an automotive fuel
– p.6/40
Units in My Presentation. . .The fundamental unit of energy is 1 exa Joule (EJ)
1EJ = 1,000,000,000,000,000,000 Jis the amount of metabolized energy in food
sufficient to sustain the entire U.S. population forone year @100 J/s-person = 100 W/person
continuously
Currently the U.S. uses 105 EJ/year; one hundredand five times more than we need to live
If we were to metabolize this amount of energy, wewould be 15 m long sperm whales, each weighing 40tonnes.
1 EJ/year = 32 GW heat continuously ≈ 1 TscfNG/year = 1/2 million BOPD
– p.7/40
Homo Colossus Americanus. . .
1 Statistical American = 1 Sperm Whale
EUGENE ODUM, Ecological Vignettes, 1998
– p.8/40
Electricity generation: 39 EJp/y
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080
50
100
150
200
250
300
350D
ays
on E
lect
ricity
/yea
r
Coal
Natural Gas & Other
Nuclear
Hydroelectric
Rest
176
79
72
23
That’s 37% of primary energy use in U.S. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010– p.9/40
Electricity generation – Rest
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 20080
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22D
ays
on E
lect
ricity
/yea
r
Petroleum
Wood & Other Biomass
Wind
Geothermal
4
5
5
1
Solar thermal and PV = 1 hour of U.S. electricity. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010– p.10/40
Transportation Fuels: 33 EJp/y
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 20000
50
100
150
200
250
300
350D
ays
on F
uel/y
ear
Motor Gasoline
Distillate Oil
Aviation Fuels
Residual Oil
Ethanol
202
99
38
188
That’s 31% of primary energy use in U.S. Source: DOE EIA, accessed 03/28/2010 – p.11/40
U.S. Energy IndependenceNatural gas, increasingly from tightsands and gas shales, is the onlylarge-scale, clean, domestic fossilfuel in the U.S. portfolio
Natural gas can easily generate anadditional 1–2 EJ/yr of electricity (4–9Tcf/y NG) and displace 2–4 EJ/year(1–2 million BOPD) in motor gasolineand diesel fuel
Key to natural gas success are stablegas price over 5-10 year contracts,and environmental soundness of fieldoperations
– p.12/40
Natural Gas = Cleaner Air. . .
0 20 40 60 80 100
Natural gas
Liquid petroleum gas
Refinery gas
Gasoline
Kerosene
Crude oil
Diesel
Fuel oil
Hard coal
Lignite
Peat
Wood
Kg CO2 per GJ in fuel
MeanMedian
Source: Volker Quaschning, Regenerative Energiesysteme,(Renewable Energy Systems), Carl Hanser Verlag, München, 2009 – p.13/40
. . . and also Cleaner Soil & Water
TVA coal ash spill 12/23/2008
After mercury capture, utility boilerson natural gas emit 0.44 t Hg/y, vs.coal at 48 t Hg/y (5.3 t Hg/y in TXalone)
Commercial boilers emit mercury at9.3 t Hg/y
Combusting coal generatesapproximately 290 Mt ash/y andpollutes surface and groundwaterover watershed areas across U.S.
Dumping coal ash occurs at 574large sites across U.S.
Scrubbing coal flu gas movespollution from air to surface water
Mining coal destroys earth surface– p.14/40
Tropical Biofuel Madness
Borneo: NASA-Johnson Space Center
Tropical forest burning for oil palmand soybean plantations releasesamounts of CO2 comparable to theentire fossil fuel emissions on theEarth
When peat underlying the forest isalso set on fire, emissions double ortriple
Wood burning for electricitygeneration is utterly unsustainable(the Polaniec electrical power stationin Poland is a good example)
Local use of stranded natural gas caneliminate some of the forest burning
– p.15/40
CO2 From SE Asia Forest Fires
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 20021.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
CO
2 em
issi
ons,
gig
aton
nes/
yr
Source: D. SCHMIL AND D. BAKER, The Wildfire Factor, Nature, 420 29, 2002
– p.16/40
Gas Shales Are Everywhere
Source: US DOE EIA– p.17/40
Unconventional Resources, 2008 . . .
0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Shale Gas
Tight Gas
Coalbed Methane
Technically Recoverable Reserves, Prudhoe Bay Eq.
P95P5−P95
Source: Navigant Consulting, Inc., 2008– p.18/40
Most Important Points for UT AustinTexas produces 18% of U.S. oil, 24% of U.S. grossnatural gas
Texas EOR produces 12% of U.S. EOR oil
Texas produces 4 times more energy as natural gasand liquids (NG&L) than as oil
Texas produces 21 times more energy as NG&L thanas EOR oil
Texas drills about 30% of linear feet drilled in the U.S.
A campus-wide, $100 million+ initiative to addresshuge challenges with UNG/Oil production is underway
– p.19/40
The rare and unexpected. . .
The Lucas Gusher, January 10, 1901
Our ignorance the future should becalled anti-knowledge
Yet, we habitually form models of thefuture
Models are not necessarily bad, butthey are limited
We never know in advance whenthese models fail
The mistakes made using models canhave very severe consequences
Simple iterated/recursive models or of-ten better than complicated ones
– p.20/40
A Harbinger of Things to Come?
Sources: NASA; Physicist Richard Feynman with an O-ring in a G-clamp, National Geographic– p.21/40
Feynman, NASA, and Risk
It appears that there are enormous differences of opinionas to the probability of a failure with loss of vehicle and ofhuman life. The estimates range from roughly 1 in 100 to 1in 100,000. The higher figures come from the workingengineers, and the very low figures from management.What are the causes and consequences of this lack ofagreement? Since 1 part in 100,000 would imply that onecould put a Shuttle up each day for 300 years expecting tolose only one, we could properly ask “What is the cause ofmanagement’s fantastic faith in the machinery?”
Source: Richard Feynman, Report of the PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION on the Space ShuttleChallenger Accident. Appendix F - Personal Observations on Reliability of Shuttle, 6/1986
– p.22/40
Feynman, NASA, and Risk
We have also found that certification criteria used in FlightReadiness Reviews often develop a gradually decreasingstrictness. The argument that the same risk was flownbefore without failure is often accepted as an argument forthe safety of accepting it again. Because of this, obviousweaknesses are accepted again and again, sometimeswithout a sufficiently serious attempt to remedy them, or todelay a flight because of their continued presence.
Source: Richard Feynman, Report of the PRESIDENTIAL COMMISSION on the Space ShuttleChallenger Accident. Appendix F - Personal Observations on Reliability of Shuttle, 6/1986
– p.23/40
The Essence of the Problem
Here is an exchange that took place in Paris in the1920s. It illustrates well a serious problem with earthsciences (and most disciplines of engineering), as theyare currently practiced:
Scott Fitzgerald: The rich are different than us.
Ernest Hemingway: Yes, they have more money.
The problem is that bigger systems are essentiallydifferent than smaller ones, but we tend to ignore thisprofound truth
– p.24/40
Complexity and emergent properties
When this clockwork is disassembled and put back together properly, its behavior is predictableThe dissected frog will not hop off the table, when her intestines are squeezed inThe living frog has emerging, autonomous properties that cannot be gleaned from her carcass
– p.25/40
Complexity and earth systems
Reductionist approach customarily applied to all systems does not work for complex systemsNew science, engineering, anthropology, sociology, political science, and psychology are neededSource: Dr. Larry Lake, PGE, UT Austin
– p.26/40
A rare event. But unexpected?
Sources: U.S. Coast Guard, July 12, 2005 photo by PA3 Robert M. Reed, displayed in Wikipedia– p.27/40
A rare event. But unexpected?
Source: U.S. Coast Guard – 100421-G-XXXXL- Deepwater Horizon fire, displayed in Wikipedia– p.28/40
Complex system and simple failure
Complex system System cost Failed part cost
Space Shuttle $1.7 – 6.7 billion $1000a?
Thunder Horse $1 (+1 billion) $100b?
Deepwater Horizon $700c million (+50 billion) $15 milliond?aFailed O-ring was a fluoroelastomer specified by Morton-ThiokolbA 6-inch length pipe (but also bad welds)c$500 million for the rig and $200 million for the well with cost overrunsdA tieback for production casing, pull BOP, 20 centralizers, cement job, CBL, casinglockdown
A complex multi-billion dollar system disintegratesbecause of one or few poorly designed parts that costalmost nothing. Bad management, judgment, andworkmanship are involved
– p.29/40
Predicting the Future. . .
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 20100
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7M
illio
n B
OP
D
Production histories of 65 oilfields in the North Sea. Sources: Norwegian Government
(2009), Patzek & Croft (2010) – p.30/40
. . . Emergent Behavior. . .
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5M
illio
n B
OP
D
A single Hubbert curve explains almost all of Norwegian production in the North Sea– p.31/40
A Future of Norwegian North Sea
1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 20400
5
10
15
20
25
30B
illio
n B
arre
ls o
f Oil
Sources: Norwegian Government (2009), Patzek & Croft (2010)– p.32/40
2006 Reservoir Depths in the Gulf
0 50 100 15010000
9000
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
Wat
er d
epth
, ft
Rank = Number of fields deeper than a field
Shell’s Perdido
BP’s Thunder Horse
BP’s Macondo Mississippi Block 252
Source: MMS data, 2006Many ultra deepwater fields
– p.33/40
Emergent Behavior in the Gulf. . .
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
0.5
1
1.5M
ilion
BO
PD Shallow water
Deep water Patzek’sProjection
IndustryProjection
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations– p.34/40
A Future of Deep Gulf
1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 20400
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
Historic data
Industry Projection
Patzek’sProjection
Bill
ion
Bar
rels
of O
il
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations – p.35/40
Total Gulf Oil/U.S. Oil Elsewhere
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 20100
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45G
OM
Oil
vs. R
est o
f U.S
. Oil,
%
Sources: U.S. DOE EIA, MMS, and Patzek’s calculations
Thunder Horse
– p.36/40
2006 Oil Data for GOM
1 10 100 10001
10
100
1000
Rank = Number of fields larger than a field
Fie
ld s
ize,
Mill
ion
barr
els
of o
il
Cumulative oil producedProven oil reserves
Source: MMS data, 2006Fractals everywhere! All that is relevant was discovered?
– p.37/40
2006 Gas Data for GOM
1 10 100 1000 11
10
100
1000
Rank = Number of fields larger than a field
Fie
ld s
ize,
bill
ion
of s
cf o
f gas
Cumulative gas producedProven gas reserves
Source: MMS data, 2006Gas that is relevant was produced?
– p.38/40
Conclusions
Complexity is omnipresent in earth systems andtechnology that orders them:
There is incomplete self-similarity (self-affinity)whose exponent changes across scales
All scales are present and relevant
“Kings” or “black swans” are always possible
Our predictive ability is dismal to none for the blackswans
Epistemic humility and ability to use ignorance of thefuture to our advantage is in order
– p.39/40
Epistemic Humility
The Captive Mind by Czesław Miłosz:
An old Jew in Galicia once made an observation: “Whensomeone is honestly 55% right, that’s very good andthere’s no use wrangling. And if someone is 60% right, it’swonderful, it’s great luck, and let them thank God. Butwhat’s to be said about 75% right? Wise people say this issuspicious. Well, and what about 100% right? Whoeversays he’s 100% right is a fanatic, a thug, and the worst kindof rascal.”
– p.40/40