Understanding and managing uncertainty with Cynefin

. © 2

Optional Conference, Budapest, April, 2014

. © 2

Sprint Consulting and it’s Speaker

9 April 2014 Istvan Marge5n, Op5onal Conference 2014 2

Trainees 3000+ Countries 20 Companies 2-3 dozen Project size 3-350 people

Margetin István •  >7 years Software development

(Java, C#) •  >7 years Project management •  >5 years Agile project management •  >3 years Agile and Lean consultant

Business Superbrands 2014

. © 2

“This is the era of uncertainty” – Daniel Kolya, Optional Conference 2014

§  Why do we need to understand uncertainty? §  Why do we need to manage uncertainty?

Uncertainty

. © 2

§  Natural preference order of people is: §  Being right §  Being wrong §  Being uncertain

http://commitment-thebook.com/

Uncertainty leads to bad decisions

. © 2

Cynefin /ˈkʌnɨvɪn/

Habitat or place

Cynefin

. © 2

§  Cynefin is a general strategy model §  Helps understand the nature of our different situations

and how we try to make sense of them §  Enables seeing multiple perspectives of the same thing §  Thus allows leaders to make better decisions §  Guides finding the right management style (and get

away from their preferred one) and §  Gives us solution patterns

The Cynefin Framework

. © 2

Image courtesy of zole4 / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of markuso / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of Stuart Miles / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

“Complex things cannot be predicted” – Jutta Eckstein, Optional Conference 2014

. © 2

Image courtesy of think4photop / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of artur84 / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of bigjom / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

“Everything is complex” – Daniel Kolya, Optional Conference 2014

. © 2

Image courtesy of Ambro / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of stockimages / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Cynefin framework

(Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 unported)

. © 2

Image courtesy of antpkr / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

Image courtesy of nuchylee / FreeDigitalPhotos.net

. © 2

§  Knowledge management §  Cultural change §  Product development §  Marketing §  Branding §  Analysing the effects of Bush’s faith on US policy making §  British National Health Service §  Food chain risk management §  Disaster control

Applications

. © 2

1.  Share the theory 2.  Collect examples from your past for the domains 3.  Understand your dominant domain 4.  Optimize your organization for that domain 5.  Always challenge your perception of where you are 6.  Break down issues with multiple aspects 7.  Focus on movement between domains 8.  Avoid complacency

v0.1 Istvan’s recipe for success with Cynefin

. © 2

§  Dave Snowden - https://cognitive-edge.com/blog §  Cynthia Kurtz, Mary E. Boone

§  Olav Maassen, Chris Matts, Chris Geary: Commitment §  Liz Keogh - http://lizkeogh.com/

References

. © 2

Questions?

. © 2

Thank you!

Get in touch at:

istvan.margetin@sprintconsulting.com www.linkedin.com/in/istvanmargetin/

http://www.facebook.com/istvan.margetin

Understanding and managing uncertainty with Cynefin

Documents

Transcript of Understanding and managing uncertainty with Cynefin

Brexit: Managing Uncertainty

Managing Uncertainty in Carbon Offsets: Insights …...Managing Uncertainty in Carbon Offsets SLS ENRLP Working Paper Page 1 of 27 WORKING PAPER – August 2019 Managing Uncertainty

MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN A VOLATILE WORLD

Cynefin iscram summer_school

Managing Uncertainty and Demonstrating Compliance Roger Seitz.pdf · Managing Uncertainty • Uncertainty is a fact of life for underground systems, especially when projecting behavior

Commander's Intent: Managing Through Uncertainty

Place pk1012 cynefin model

Managing commodity risk through market uncertainty

Understanding and Managing Uncertainty in Schedules

COMPLEXITY, CHAOS & CYNEFIN

Managing Uncertainty of XML Schema Matching

Grŵp Cynefin - Altairaltairltd.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2017/08/170814-Grwp-Cynefin... · About Grŵp Cynefin Grŵp Cynefin is a charitable housing association that was formed in

Managing Uncertainty: Lessons from Xenophon’s Retreat

Managing Organizational Uncertainty: Conceptualization and ...imetacomm.com/otherpubs/research/manorguncertain.pdf · 1 Managing Organizational Uncertainty: Conceptualization and

Managing uncertainty and variability when assessing ... › cm › 349 › managing... · Managing uncertainty and variability in benefit assessment Conclusion. 17 • Comparison

Cynefin complexity

Cynefin Lego ALE14

Cynefin, Statistics and Decision Analysis · David Snowden’s Cynefin framework, ... and decision making. Below, I explore Cynefin and its import for thinking about statistics and

Navigating Project Uncertainty, An Explorers Toolkit using Cynefin

Managing fuel supply & uncertainty in India