The Super Tuesday Outbreak of The Super Tuesday Outbreak of 5-6 February, 20085-6 February, 2008

Hypothesis

Upper-level trough in the Plains Shortwave passing through Low-level jet from Gulf of Mexico Moisture advection from south Strong, veering winds Neutral layer near surface

Conceptual Model

Not Quite Type B...

Mesoscale Factors (0000 UTC)

Nashville Sounding (0000 UTC)

Trigger 1: The Low-Level Jet

1800 UTC

(1200 LST)

2100 UTC

(1500 LST)

Trigger 2: Shortwave

0000 UTC

(1800 LST)

The Supercell

Type B Legacy: Nighttime Tornadoes

LST UTC5:02 PM 2302 ATKINS POPE AR 3524 9295 *** 3 FATAL *** 6:25 PM 0025 5 SW DANCYVILLE FAYETTE TN 3537 8936 *** 1 FATAL ***6:42 PM 0042 6 NNW MERCER MADISON TN 3556 8905 *** 2 FATAL ***7:30 PM 0130 MORRIS CHAPEL HARDIN TN 3532 8835 *** 2 FATAL, 5 INJ *** 7:40 PM 0140 4 NW SAVANNAH HARDIN TN 3526 8829 *** 3 FATAL, 5 INJ ***7:44 PM 0144 1 W GREENVILLE MUHLENBERG KY 3721 8720 *** 3 FATAL ***10:10 PM 0410 5 W HARTSVILLE TROUSDALE TN 3639 8625 *** 2 FATAL ***1:45 AM 0745 9 SSE SCOTTSVILLE MACON TN 3663 8613 *** 4 FATAL ***1:45 AM 0745 7 SSE SCOTTSVILLE ALLEN KY 3666 8615 *** 4 FATAL ***3:20 AM 0920 6 SE MOULTON LAWRENCE AL 3442 8721 *** 3 FATAL ***5:20 AM 1120 PISGAH JACKSON AL 3468 8585 *** 1 FATAL ***

References Martin, Jonathan E. Mid-Latitude Cyclone Dynamics: A First Course. Wiley Publishing, 2006.

Blanchard, D. O., 1998: Assessing the vertical distribution of convective available potential energy. Wea. Forecasting, 13, 870–877.

Miller, R.C., 1972: Notes on Analysis and Severe-Storm Forecasting Procedures of the Air Force Global Weather Central. Air Weather Service, 1-23.

Monette, S. A. The Parkersburg, IA EF-5 Tornado: Destruction Amidst the Rain. 2009. Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison.

Hayes, J. L. Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak - Executive Summary. 2008. National Weather Service.

National Weather Service-Memphis, 2008. February 5, 2008 Storm Damage Survey. <http://www.srh.noaa.gov/meg/?n=feb52008tornadooutbreak>.

SPC Severe Event Index

Lecture 11 Powerpoint