Super Tuesday 2008 - Fox News · Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book Bryan S. Murphy Sr....

Super Tuesday 2008 Brainroom Briefing Book

Bryan S. Murphy Sr. Political Affairs Specialist Fox News Channel

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Table of Contents

Introduction – p. 3

Delegates Available on Super Tuesday – p. 4

The Republicans – p. 6

The Democrats – p. 8

West Virginia GOP Convention – p. 10

Georgia Primary – p. 14

Alabama Primary – p. 19

Connecticut Primary – p. 24

Delaware Primary – p. 29

Illinois Primary – p. 33

Massachusetts Primary – p. 38

Missouri Primary – p. 42

New Jersey Primary – p. 46

Oklahoma Primary – p. 51

Tennessee Primary – p. 55

Arkansas Primary – p. 60

Arizona Primary – p. 65

Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 70

Kansas DEM Caucuses – p. 74

Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 78

New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary – p. 82

New York Primary – p. 86

Idaho DEM Caucuses – p. 91

North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 95

Utah Primary – p. 99

California Primary – p. 103

Montana GOP Caucuses – p. 110

Alaska DEM & GOP Caucuses – p. 114

American Samoa DEM Caucuses – 119

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Introduction This Super Tuesday is the biggest day of presidential primary and caucus voting in U.S. history.1 Twenty-four states hold some delegate selection event on Feb. 5, with 1,681 Democratic delegates and 1,023 Republican delegates to the national presidential nominating conventions up for grabs. A candidate needs 2,025 delegates to secure the Democratic nomination, and 1,191 to win the Republican nomination. There are Democratic delegate selection events in 22 states and one territory.There are 15 states holding Democratic primaries (not counting New Mexico's party-run primary as a primary, but rather as a caucus) and seven states and one territory holding Democratic caucuses. There are Republican delegate selection events in 21 states. There are 15 states holding Republican primaries, five states holding Republican caucuses and one state a Republican convention. There are delegate selection events in the following states on Super Tuesday, Feb. 5: Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic), Massachusetts, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana (Republican), New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic), New York, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Utah, West Virginia (Republican). There is also a caucus in American Samoa (Democratic). Super Tuesday was once thought to be the definitive date on the political calendar, when the nominee in each party would be clearly determined, the picture is far more muddled now by the number of candidates who have staked wins in different places. The sheer number of contests on this day could give the legitimate contenders plenty of opportunities to find a win somewhere and move on. However, a candidate who picks up many victories across the country -- especially in the big states like California and New York -- could be on his or her way to the nomination.2 Strategists must consider not just state-by-state polling, but also the widely varying rules governing each contest. Some states allow independents to vote in partisan primaries; others are closed. Some are caucuses more likely to attract activists; some are primaries where early voting is already under way. 3 A number of candidates have connections to these states: McCain represents Arizona in the Senate, Huckabee is former governor of Arkansas, Obama is from Illinois, Romney is a former governor of Massachusetts and Clinton is from New York.4

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Delegates Available on Super Tuesday by Last Poll Closing Time Super Tuesday February 5, 2008 Poll Closings ET Delegates West Virginia GOP Convention 11:30 AM R: 18 Georgia Primary 7:00 PM D: 87 R: 72 Alabama Primary 8:00 PM D: 52 R: 45 Connecticut Primary 8:00 PM D: 48 R: 27 Delaware Primary 8:00 PM D: 15 R: 18 Illinois Primary 8:00 PM D: 153 R: 57 Massachusetts Primary 8:00 PM D: 93 R: 40 Missouri Primary 8:00 PM D: 72 R: 58 New Jersey Primary 8:00 PM D: 107 R: 52 Oklahoma Primary 8:00 PM D: 38 R: 38 Tennessee Primary 8:00 PM D: 68 R: 52 Arkansas Primary 8:30 PM D: 35 R: 31 Arizona Primary 9:00 PM D: 56 R: 53 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 9:00 PM D: 55 R: 43 Kansas DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 32 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 9:00 PM D: 72 R: 38 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 9:00 PM D: 26 New York Primary 9:00 PM D: 232 R: 101 North Dakota DEM Caucus 9:00 PM D: 13 Idaho DEM Caucus 10:00 PM D: 18 North Dakota GOP Caucus 10:00 PM R: 23 Utah Primary 10:00 PM D: 23 R: 36 California Primary 11:00 PM D: 370 R: 170 Alaska DEM Caucus 12:00 AM D: 13 Montana GOP Caucus 12:00 AM R: 25 Alaska GOP Party Run Primary 12:30 AM R: 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus D: 3

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SUPER TUESDAY - February 5, 2008

Delegates Primaries: Dems Reps Alabama Primary 52 45 Arizona Primary 56 53 Arkansas Primary 35 31 California Primary 370 170 Connecticut Primary 48 27 Delaware Primary 15 18 Georgia Primary 87 72 Illinois Primary 153 57 Massachusetts Primary 93 40 Missouri Primary 72 58 New Jersey Primary 107 52 New Mexico DEM Party Run Primary 26 0 New York Primary 232 101 Oklahoma Primary 38 38 Tennessee Primary 68 52 Utah Primary 23 36 Caucuses: Alaska Caucuses 13 26 American Samoa DEM Caucus 3 0 Colorado DEM & GOP Caucuses 55 43 Idaho DEM Caucus 18 0 Kansas DEM Caucus 32 0 Minnesota DEM & GOP Caucus 72 38 Montana GOP Caucus 0 25 North Dakota DEM & GOP Caucus 13 23 Conventions West Virginia GOP Convention 0 18 Total Delegates Up for Grabs on 2/5: 1681 1023 Total 2/5 Delegates as % of Total Delegates: 41.52% 42.98% Delegates Needed to Win Nomination: 2025 1191 Total Delegates at Party Conventions: 4049 2380

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The Republicans McCain seized the momentum and the mantle of Republican front-runner with a victory in Florida that propels him into Super Tuesday's national delegate bonanza. McCain's victory in Florida was a bitter setback for Romney and signaled the end of Giuliani's star-crossed bid for the GOP presidential nomination. Giuliani quit the race and endorse McCain. McCain has predicted that he will lock up the GOP nomination on Super Tuesday, when 21 states hold Republican events. In carrying Florida, McCain showed he could win a primary in which only Republicans were allowed to vote - unlike his victories in New Hampshire and South Carolina, which came with the support of independent and crossover voters. The Florida victory marked a stunning turnaround for a campaign that had collapsed last summer amid money and personnel problems. McCain soldiered on, emphasizing national security and fending off criticism from some quarters of the GOP that he was not conservative enough to be the party's standard-bearer. Romney, whose only primary win so far was in Michigan, served notice that he will continue an increasingly bitter fight against the veteran Arizona senator. For Huckabee, who won the Iowa caucuses, his fourth-place finish in Florida pointed up an inability to reach beyond his base of evangelical Christian voters. He watched the Florida results from Missouri, a Super Tuesday state, where he told supporters he had no intention of quitting.5 For Republicans, many states are winner-take-all, so campaigns must assess if they have a shot. If not, they will skip these states altogether and focus on realistic targets. McCain will spend little time in the South; Huckabee will go virtually nowhere else. 6 Many of the states have winner-take-all rules on the Republican side; in those states, there is no point investing in a state that can't be won. Huckabee plans to concentrate in Alabama, Georgia and his home state of Arkansas. The campaign also hopes to be competitive in neighboring Missouri, particularly the conservative southern, rural part of the state. McCain plans to focus on California, New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. He also will make an effort in Illinois. Romney is still working through his options, but with Giuliani out he might have a shot at northeastern states including New York and New Jersey. He is also analyzing states where the winner of each congressional district picks up Republican delegates, and was considering making a play for some in Georgia, Alabama and California, regardless of whether he can win the entire state, one of his strategists said.7 Giuliani's decision to throw his support to McCain was a powerful assist, even though the former New York mayor and one-time Republican favorite never caught on with large numbers of primary voters. His support is concentrated among moderate Republican voters, who now are expected to shift largely to McCain. That could be particularly important in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut, which hold primaries Tuesday. Taken together, the tri-state area represents the largest chunk of delegates one candidate could realistically expect to win next week. McCain already leads in polling in those states, and his Florida victory amplifies his chances for a sweep. Republicans in California said that Giuliani had built an effective campaign organization in the state, with the ability to reach voters by phone and get them out on election day. By turning that

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machinery over to McCain, he'll fill a gap created by the senator's decision to abandon campaign activities in this state and many others last year after his candidacy nearly collapsed. McCain is still scrambling to raise new money to compete against Romney, who has the ability to provide his campaign with needed funds, merely by writing a check from his own considerable bank account. Romney faces serious difficulties in trying to keep McCain from pulling away, in spite of his advantage in campaign funds. He has outspent McCain in every state but has won only one major contest, in his native Michigan. Romney is also hurt by the continued presence in the race of Huckabee, who ranks third in delegates and is no longer a serious contender for the nomination, according to Republican insiders. Huckabee, a former Arkansas governor and Baptist minister, is still popular with many religious and social conservatives. His continued presence in the race attracts votes that otherwise would largely go to Romney, especially in Southern and Southwestern primaries and rural districts of states as diverse as California, Illinois, Minnesota and Missouri. The fourth man in the Republican race, Texas Rep. Ron Paul, has failed to make a mark in primaries and caucuses, despite raising large amounts of money from his dedicated cadre of supporters.8

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The Democrats Clinton won the Democratic vote in Florida, winning bragging rights but no delegates. National Democratic Party officials stripped the delegates in a squabble with the state over moving the primary date earlier than party rules allow. Clinton hopes her Florida victory will lessen the media attention given to Obama’s strong victory in South Carolina and the endorsements he received from members of the Kennedy clan.9 Edwards has abandoned his White House run leaving the Democrats with a two-person field of major candidates. Edwards hadn't even made his departure from the Democratic presidential race official when his soon-to-be former rivals were already making plays for his supporters. The effect of Edwards leaving the race is difficult to assess. One thing is clear: It sets the Democratic Party on a path for a historic nominee, with either the first woman or the first African-American at the top of the ticket. As the two remaining candidates began the courtship of Edwards, it was far from clear what the natural lines of attraction would be for those voters newly without their candidate. Exit polling from the four early primaries offers mixed signs. Voters friendly to Edwards share some demographic similarities to Clinton backers, but they also bear resemblance to Obama's supporters -- along with an affinity for the anti-establishment, outsider rhetoric like his.10 In the Democratic field, Clinton has the advantage when only registered party voters are allowed in. Obama, with an extensive field organization, is expected to do well in caucuses.11 The sheer size of the Feb. 5 challenge could favor Clinton. She is still better known than Obama and holds a lead in national polls. Obama won or came in a close second in four early states where he had extensive field operations and spent weeks campaigning -- an option not as available to him now as he is forced to bounce among nearly two-dozen far-flung contests. But with a sizable bank account and lots of attention from his win in South Carolina, Obama is prepared to go toe-to-toe with Clinton. And he benefits from party rules that award delegates according to the share of the votes each candidate receives. There is no winner-take-all on Feb. 5, and that means he could still win a substantial share of delegates even if Clinton wins most of the states.12 In Democratic contests, most delegates are awarded proportionate to the vote by congressional district. Some districts have an even number of delegates, meaning the two major candidates are likely to divide the spoils no matter what; but in others, there is an odd number, meaning an investment in voter phone calls and mailings could yield one extra delegate. The Super Tuesday map features states large and small that rarely play an important role in presidential politics. That includes the megaprizes of California and New York, both too Democratic to matter in a general election and usually too late to matter in a primary. But the campaign is also reaching tiny quarters like Delaware and Idaho. On the night of Feb. 5, the winners are likely to be reported by state. The statewide vote totals are important, even in the Democratic race, given that 35% of the party's delegates are awarded based on those results. But the rest of the Democratic delegates are awarded by congressional district, meaning there will be microcontests even in states where one or another candidate is far ahead. Each district typically has three to five delegates to award. A candidate needs at least 15% of the vote in the district to get any delegates. So in a race where only Clinton and Obama meet that threshold, they are likely to divide the delegates evenly if there are an even number of delegates available. That makes the districts with an odd number of delegates the most valuable, because

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the winner will automatically get an extra. Campaign strategists are also looking to see where it might be possible to win 59% of the vote; a victory that large gets a candidate an extra delegate even in a district with an even number. Clinton campaign officials expect they may lose Colorado and Minnesota, but they have identified districts in each state where they might pick up extra delegates. It’s been said that Obama doesn't expect to win California, but he is running ads in the San Francisco area hoping to pick up delegates in those congressional districts.13

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West Virginia Republican Party Convention – Latest Poll Closing 11:30 AM ET

State Type Who can participate Dem delegates GOP delegates

WEST VIRGINIA

Closed GOP convention

18 statewide delegates at the 2/5 convention. (Another 9 delegates will be awarded in the 5/13 primary). District-level are allocated by winner-take-all by CD in the 5/13 primary. Statewide delegates go to the majority winner of the 2/5 convention.

West Virginia The West Virginia GOP State Convention starts at 9:00 AM ET, but the first roll call of the counties won’t start until approximately 11:30 AM ET, with 55 counties at one minute each the first round of voting should be completed at 12:30 PM ET. Additional rounds may be necessary. If no one gets a majority on the first ballot there will be a one-hour recess and a second round of voting will commence probably finishing at about 1:30 PM ET. Another one-hour recess and then a third round of voting could follow and a result is expected by then. Delegates to the state convention will select which candidate will receive 18 of West Virginia's 30 delegate seats at the national convention. The rest will be picked during the May 13 state primary election. About 344,000 of the state's 1.1 million registered voters are Republicans.14 West Virginia History In 1984, Mondale easily won the nonbinding popular vote in West Virginia's Democratic Presidential primary. Also in the Republican primary, Reagan defeated Harold Stassen, a former Governor of Minnesota who has been a candidate eight times for his party's Presidential nomination.15 In 1988, Dukakis won a sweeping victory over the Rev. Jackson in West Virginia. Dukakis won West Virginia by a vote ratio of more than 5 to 1.16 In 1992, both Clinton and Bush won their primaries with more than 70 percent of the vote. Patrick J. Buchanan reached 20 percent in only three West Virginia counties, two in the industrial northern panhandle that is sandwiched between Pennsylvania and Ohio.17 In 1996, Dole and Clinton won easy victories in West Virginia. In 2000, Bush and Gore easily won in West Virginia's primary election. Bush had 80 percent of the Republican vote, while Gore had 72 percent of the Democrats' vote.18 For 2008, West Virginia Republicans will hold a party convention on February 5, when so many other states will be voting; it is expected to be over early in the afternoon, so West Virginia will have the first of the day’s results.19

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WEST VIRGINIA PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 99,994 (81%)Buchanan (R) 18,067 (15%)Other 6,096 (5%)

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 227,815 (74%)Brown (D) 36,505 (12%)Tsongas (D) 21,271 (7%)Other 15,349 (5%)Kerrey (D) 3,152 (1%)Harkin (D) 2,774 (1%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 87,534 (69%) Buchanan (R) 20,928 (16%) Forbes (R) 6,222 (5%) Keyes (R) 4,822 (4%) Alexander (R) 3,773 (3%) Other 3,093 (2%)Lugar (R) 1,082 (1%)

1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 257,087 (87%) La Rouche (D) 40,034 (14%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 87,050 (80%)McCain (R) 14,121 (13%)Keyes (R) 5,210 (5%)Forbes (R) 1,733 (2%)Other 1,290 (1%)

2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 182,403 (72%)Bradley (D) 46,710 (18%)Other 19,374 (8%)LaRouche (D) 4,823 (2%)

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2004 Democratic Presidential Primary

Kerry (D) 175,065 (69%) Edwards (D) 33,950 (13%) Lieberman (D) 13,881 (5%) Dean (D) 10,576 (4%) Clark (D) 9,170 (4%) Other 10,197 (4%) Profile of West Virginia West Virginia, which holds its Republican caucus on Feb. 5, has a 2007 population of 1.8 million including a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites, a lower percentage of blacks, and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. The state’s Democratic primary is on May 13.

About 57 percent of West Virginia’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, lower than the national rate of 64 percent.

Selected Characteristics West Virginia U.S. Women 51.0% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 94.1% 66.4% Black alone 3.3% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 0.9% 14.8% Median household income $35,059 $48,451 Foreign born 1.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 17.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 16.5% 27.0% Median home value $89,700 $185,20020 West Virginia for more than half a century was one of the most Democratic states, deserting the national ticket only in Republican landslide years (1956, 1972, 1984) until George W. Bush carried it in 2000; its legislature has been controlled by Democrats since 1930. Most West Virginia voters continue to identify as Democrats, but Bush's 2004 victory raises the question of whether West Virginia is going to follow other mountain states like Kentucky and Tennessee and become predominantly Republican. Bush's support of coal and his opposition to gun control enabled him to carry West Virginia 52%-46%--a stunning upset in a state that hadn't voted for a Republican in an open presidential race since 1928.21 West Virginians have a strong attachment to this unique state, where the accent sounds Southern and the early 20th century factories and houses look Northern, where the landscape is rural and the economy industrial.22 West Virginia has been gaining between 1,000 and 3,000 residents a year since 2001, according to U.S. Census Bureau estimates. The West Virginia 2008 Economic Outlook predicts population losses in younger age groups and population gains in older age groups over the next five years.23 West Virginia is the largest coal-producing State in the Appalachian Region and the second-largest in the U.S.24

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West Virginia in the last 24 years as a state, like the nation, has shifted from a goods-producing economy to a service economy. 130,200 West Virginians are employed in goods-producing businesses, while the mining sector employs only 27,200. The number of manufacturing jobs has declined to 59,500 and some industries, such as glass and steel, have almost disappeared.25 West Virginia has the country's highest rate of heart disease among adults, according to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.26

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Georgia Primary – Latest Poll Closing 7:00 PM ET


GEORGIA Open primary

Registered voters may participate in either primary.

87 in the primary 57 district level 30 statewide 16 super-delegates Total: 103

Pledged district level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.

72 in the primary 39 district level 30 statewide 3 RNC members Total: 72

Pledged district level delegates are winner-take-all by CD. Pledged statewide delegates are winner-take-all by statewide vote.

Georgia Huckabee leads in the state. The former Baptist preacher and Southern governor is limping along, short on cash and victories. But he views Georgia as the perfect state for him to make a comeback -- or at least cause waves in the race. He rallied fellow evangelical Christians in Iowa to win and hopes to do so again here. For him, it seems, the race has become less about winning the nomination and more about solidifying himself as a fresh-faced leader. The state awards delegates by congressional district; thus, Romney -- who has the endorsements of three congressmen -- may try to pick off districts that could be easiest to win. McCain won't ignore the state, but it's not a priority. 27 The biggest prize among the Southern states will be Georgia, where blacks could make up more than 40% of the Democratic primary vote, and 87 delegates are at stake. Obama has been endorsed by Atlanta's black mayor, Shirley Franklin, and recent polls show he has an edge over Clinton in the state. 28 Obama strategists have expressed confidence in their chances in Georgia and Alabama. Both are deep South states with large black populations like South Carolina, where he had a commanding victory delivered by black voters. But Edwards' exit could complicate matters, perhaps putting some of those states' white votes up for grabs.29 Georgia History Georgia’s first presidential primaries were conducted in 1976.30 Georgia’s presidential primary comes early in the cycle and has been of some importance. In 1992 Governor Zell Miller had it scheduled one week before Super Tuesday in order to help Clinton, and it did: Clinton won solidly to balance losses in Maryland and Colorado the same day.

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In 1996 and 2000, Georgia was of little importance except as a measure of turnout: Democratic turnout fell from 622,000 in 1988 to 284,000 in 2000, while Republican turnout rose from 400,000 to 643,000.31 In the 2000 presidential primary, black voters cast 48 percent of the Democratic ballots.32 In the March 2, 2004, primary Democratic turnout zoomed to 627,000, as there was no Republican contest. John Edwards visited Georgia five times after the Iowa caucuses and John Kerry only once, but Kerry beat Edwards 47%-41%. Edwards carried white voters and won 101 of the 159 counties, but Kerry carried black voters and carried Atlanta's Fulton County and the two other majority-black counties in the Atlanta metro area by 47,000 votes—more than his 33,000-vote statewide plurality. Edwards’s loss here made it plain that he had no chance to win the nomination and would be hard pressed to win other Southern states, and he withdrew from the race.33 Muscogee County was the bellwether county in the state. In the 29 statewide Democratic primaries or runoffs from 1996 through 2006, Muscogee County Democrats voted for the winner 28 times, the best record of any county in Georgia, according to an analysis of election results by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. That includes every state, U.S. Senate and presidential primary.34 Georgia's presidential primary will be Feb. 5, 2008, nearly a month earlier than in the past. The Peach State will join the rush of other states staking out earlier primary dates in hopes of attracting candidates and visibility.35 For Republicans, the state is important for Mike Huckabee. He’s a Southerner, and he need Georgia's delegates. Georgia's Republicans hold the third-highest pool of GOP delegates in all the contests through Super Tuesday.36 Massachusetts has changed the date of its primaries from March to Feb. 5th. This could give the state a bigger role in the national campaign. For a long time, Massachusetts primaries have mattered very little. They have seldom, if ever been decisive contests in the big scheme of things. The state Republican Party said GOP voters in the Bay State are more energized than they have been in years. 37

GEORGIA PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 291,905 (64%)Buchanan (R) 162,085 (36%)

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 259,907 (57%)Tsongas (D) 109,148 (24%)Brown (D) 36,808 (8%)Kerrey (D) 22,033 (5%)Uncommitted 17,256 (4%)Harkin (D) 9,479 (2%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 226,732 (41%)Buchanan (R) 162,627 (29%)

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Alexander (R) 75,855 (14%)Forbes (R) 71,276 (13%)Other 22,577 (4%)Keyes (R) 17,538 (3%)Other 5,039 (1%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 430,480 (67%)McCain (R) 179,046 (28%)Keyes (R) 29,640 (5%)

2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 238,396 (84%)Bradley (D) 46,035 (16%)

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 293,225 (47%) Edwards (D) 259,361 (41%) Sharpton (D) 39,123 (6%) Dean (D) 11,320 (2%) Kucinich (D) 7,699 (1%) Other 16,110 (3%) Profile of Georgia About 57 percent of Georgia’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, below the national rate of 64 percent.

Georgia’s 2007 population of 9.5 million includes a higher percentage of the black and non-Hispanic white-alone populations and a lower percentage of Hispanics than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. Georgia's population grew 16.6 percent between 2000 and 2007; the nation grew 7.2 percent during that same period.

Selected Characteristics Georgia U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 16.6% 7.2% Median age 34.6 36.4 Women 50.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 58.9% 66.4% Black alone 29.9% 12.8% Hispanic 7.5% 14.8% Median household income $46,832 $48,451 Foreign born 9.2% 12.5% Persons below poverty 14.7% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 26.6% 27.0% Median home value $156,800 $185,20038 Minorities accounted for slightly more than half of the 42,000 Georgians who registered to vote in the week before the deadline for the Feb. 5, 2008 presidential primary. Since 2001, four times as

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many African-Americans and other minorities have been added to the state's voter rolls than whites, according to an analysis of state election records. In 2001, white voters accounted for 72 percent of the electorate. Today they make up 66 percent of Georgia's voting population. African Americans, ethnic Asians, Latinos and others make up the remaining 34 percent.39 Women make up more than 52 percent of Georgia registered voters.40 Georgia voters are worried about the drought's effect on the economy and their quality of life, and they want government to respond by requiring conservation and limiting development.41 Georgia and Atlanta have been one of the great boom areas of America over the last dozen years. From 1990 to 2006, Georgia’s population grew by 45%, the fifth highest rate of population growth among states. The state has more blacks than any other state except New York and Texas, and will surpass them soon if present trends continue. Jimmy Carter, a one-term state senator, was elected governor in 1970 with a rural base as well as conspicuous black support. Carter became one of the first politicians from the rural South to celebrate and honor the civil rights revolution and in the process set himself on the road to being elected president in 1976. Demographic change and economic change in Georgia have been followed by political change, to the point that this once heavily Democratic state now seems to be solidly Republican. The Republican trend continued in 2006, as most other states trended Democratic. The new Republican majorities passed the nation’s toughest law on illegal immigrants, requiring employers to consult a federal database when hiring, welfare recipients to prove their legal status and jailers to inform federal authorities of illegal inmates. They cut income, corporate and property taxes. In 2006, Georgia became one of just 10 states with a Republican governor and legislature.42 Georgia is the largest of the U.S. states east of the Mississippi River and by many years the youngest of the 13 former English colonies. Atlanta has long been the economic and cultural center of the Southeast. For most of the 19th century Georgia was the capital of the cotton empire of the South, but poultry products now account for many times the income from cotton.43 An economic downturn was triggered partly by a housing slump that has caused a steep decline in new home construction, which has in turn dampened consumer spending. State tax collections in December alone plunged 8.8 percent from the same month the year before. State fiscal economist Kenneth Heaghney predicted the slump, a growing unemployment rate and declining growth in tax receipts, could mean a recession for Georgia. Thanks to Delta Airlines, say Georgia lawmakers, Atlanta boasts the world's busiest airport, Hartsfield Jackson Atlanta International.44 Virtually every part of the Atlanta metro area has been significantly touched by foreclosures. Thousands of properties facing foreclosure involve mortgages of $300,000 or more, according to the data compiled by Equity Depot. Even in upscale Alpharetta, hundreds of properties have been scheduled for sale on the courthouse steps.45 In 2005, state legislators made it a crime to commit mortgage fraud, for which Georgia was ranked No. 1 in the U.S. from 2002 until 2005, according to the Mortgage Asset Research Institute. Following the changes, Georgia fell to No. 5 in one year.46 Forsyth County made Forbes' list of the country's wealthiest counties, ranking No. 13 in the nation in median annual income. Forsyth is listed with a median income of $83,682, which is $33,000 higher than neighboring Fulton County.47

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Georgia has had one of the fastest-growing populations of illegal immigrants in the country, according to the U.S. Department of Homeland Security. Between 2000 and 2006, the state added an average of about 45,000 illegal immigrants each year. Homeland Security estimated Georgia's population of illegal immigrants at 490,000 as of January 2006.48 Georgia's school systems are the first in the nation to offer publicly funded Bible classes after lawmakers passed a bill allowing the courses in 2006.49

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Alabama Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


ALABAMA Open primary

Registered voters are eligible to participate in either primary.

52 in the primary 34 district level 18 statewide 8 unpledged super-delegates Total: 60

Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to CD primary vote, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated proportionally to the state vote, with a 15% threshold.

45 in the primary 21 district level 24 statewide 3 unpledged RNC member delegates Total: 48

Pledged district-level delegates are winner-take-all by CD. Pledged statewide delegates are winner-take-all.

Alabama Huckabee is concentrating on a few Southern states including Alabama.50 On his way to winning South Carolina, Obama drew support from about 80% of African American voters, exit polls showed. That leaves him positioned to do well Feb. 5 in states such as Alabama, Georgia and Tennessee, which have large populations of African American Democrats. 51 Obama and Huckabee have recently visited Alabama. McCain plans a rally in Birmingham on Saturday. Bill Clinton scheduled a return trip to the state on Saturday to campaign for his wife, Democrat Hillary Clinton. Alabama's voter registrations have surged with the approach of the primary Tuesday and are much higher than they were in the last two presidential primaries. That surge and a flurry of visits by candidates have Alabama's chief election official, Secretary of State Beth Chapman, predicting a higher-than-normal turnout of 31 percent to 33 percent. In the three months leading up to Tuesday's primary, 58,341 new voters have registered. That compares to 43,702 in the three months leading up to the 2004 primary and 36,898 for the 2000 primary. Going into Tuesday's election, Alabama has 2.56 million registered voters.52 Alabama History Athens State University professor Jess Brown says that prior to the 1930s the few blacks who could vote in Alabama were overwhelmingly Republican, identifying the party with Abraham Lincoln and the eventual abolition of slavery.53 Times have changed since then and in Alabama, as in the rest of the nation, black voters now trend heavily toward the Democrats. Traditionally, blacks make up 40% or more of the Democratic primary vote in Alabama.54 In 1984 and 1988, Alabama held its presidential primary on the second Tuesday in March. In 1984, Alabama got a flood of candidates, with Alabama becoming the first state to go for

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Democrat Walter Mondale in a big way. On the Republican side, Ronald Reagan had a cake walk.55 In the 1984 Democratic Primary, outside Birmingham, blacks voted for Jesse Jackson by a margin of more than 3 to 1. In Birmingham, where the black turnout was twice as high as it was in the rest of the state, blacks voted 2 to 1 for Walter. Mondale. Mondale won the state with 35% of the vote.56 Running against Mondale -- and Jackson -- in the 1984 Alabama primary, Gary Hart actually won 0 percent of the black vote.57 In 1988, several other Southern states moved their primary to the same day as Alabama to create "Super Tuesday." Most of the candidates concentrated on more populous states. Jesse Jackson and George Bush won Alabama's 1988primary.58 Blacks were 43% of the Democratic vote in the 1988 presidential primary, but in 1992 blacks were 25% of the electorate in Alabama.59 In the June 1996 primary, Republican Bob Dole paid one visit to Alabama and Democrat Bill Clinton made none.60 Both still easily won their respective primaries. In 2000, Gore won 77 percent against his nearest rival uncommitted, uncommitted won 17 percent. Lyndon LaRouche was in the race as well winning 6%. In 2000, Bush defeated Alan Keyes 84% to 12%. In 2004, Alabama's presidential primary was so late in the primary season that it had no national impact, but it did allow President George Bush and Sen. John Kerry to add to their delegate counts. In the 2004 Republican primary, voters had the choice of Bush or uncommitted.In the Democratic primary, voters could chose between Kerry, Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, perennial candidate Lyndon LaRouche and uncommitted.61 In 2004, only two states -- Montana and New Jersey -- had primaries on dates later than Alabama's.62 Alabama will hold its 2008 primary on Feb. 5, four months earlier than the 2004 date. Legislators moved the election last year after dozens of other states pushed forward their primaries or caucuses, fearful Alabama's role on the national scene would be diminished if voters went to the polls again in June.63 The number of delegates up for grabs in Alabama is dwarfed by states such as New York, California, Illinois, Massachusetts and New Jersey, and is small even compared with sister Southern states such as Georgia and Tennessee. However, Alabama politicians in both parties insist their races are so tight that results here will matter a lot.64

ALABAMA PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 122,703 (74%)Uncommitted 29,830 (18%)Buchanan (R) 12,588 (8%)


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Clinton (D) 307,621 (68%)Uncommitted 90,863 (20%)Brown (D) 30,626 (7%)Other 21,789 (5%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 160,097 (76%) Buchanan (R) 33,409 (16%) Other 11,073 (5%)Keyes (R) 7,354 (4%)

1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 243,588 (81%) Uncommitted 45,764 (15%) LaRouche (D) 12,686 (4%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 171,077 (84%)Keyes (R) 23,394 (12%)Uncommitted 8,608 (4%)

2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 214,541 (77%)Uncommitted 48,521 (17%)LaRouche (D) 15,465 (6%)

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 164,021 (75%)Uncommitted 38,223 (17%)Kucinich (D) 9,076 (4%)Other 7,254 (3%) Profile of Alabama About 63 percent of Alabama’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, not significantly different from the national rate of 64 percent. Alabama’s 2007 population of 4.6 million includes a percentage of the black population that is more than double the national average and a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population, according to the U.S. Census Bureau statistics. Selected Characteristics Alabama U.S. Median age 37.1 36.4 Women 51.5% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 69.0% 66.4% Black alone 26.3% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 2.5% 14.8%

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Median household income $38,783 $48,451 Foreign born 2.8% 12.5% Persons below poverty 16.6% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 21.1% 27.0% Median home value $107,000 $185,20065 State politics in Alabama remains competitive. On one side of this political conflict are the Democrats: Their voting base is Alabama's large black minority and the institutional base is the state's well organized teachers' unions and trial lawyers. On the other side are the Republicans: Their voting base is white evangelical Protestants and their institutional base is small businessmen and the affluent young families filling the fast-growing suburban areas outside Birmingham, Montgomery, Mobile and Huntsville--groups that are fractious and not well organized.66 However, Democrats haven’t seen much success in presidential elections in Alabama. Democrats last carried Alabama in a presidential general election in 1976.67 Recently, the leading organization of black Democrats in Alabama, the Alabama Democratic Conference, unanimously endorsed Hillary Clinton. Blacks make up 26 percent of Alabama's population -- and an even larger percentage of the state's Democratic voters.68 In the 1950s and '60s, Alabama was the site of such landmark civil-rights actions as the bus boycott in Montgomery (1955–56) and the “Freedom March” from Selma to Montgomery (1965).69 In 2003, Alabama Court of the Judiciary unanimously ordered Roy Moore removed from office as chief justice, over his refusal to remove a Ten Commandments display from the Alabama Judicial Building.70 Hispanics are a growing part of Alabama's population, but they make up less than 1 percent of the state's voters. The Census Bureau says that Alabama has more than 100,000 Hispanics among its 4.5 million residents. According to the secretary of state's office, Alabama's has nearly 2.7 million registered voters, with whites making up nearly 2 million of that number. Alabama has more than 675,000 black voters, and 7,187 Hispanic voters, or 0.3 percent. 71 A 2005 survey listed Alabama as the state with the highest percentage of residents who identify themselves as born-again Christians.72 At the polls in the 2004 election, about four of every 10 Alabama voters described themselves as evangelical or born-again Christians.73 Today paper, chemicals, rubber and plastics, apparel and textiles, primary metals, and automobile manufacturing constitute the leading industries of Alabama. Continuing as a major manufacturer of coal, iron, and steel, Birmingham is also noted for its world-renowned medical center.74 The coming of Hyundai, along with its supplier plants, and the staying put of an Maxwell-Gunter Air Force computer service also have helped to keep the local economy healthy.75 Gov. Bob Riley says textile jobs that were once the backbone of Alabama's economy have moved to other nations and have been replaced by auto, steel, biotechology and space-related jobs.76 Per capita income growth in Alabama from 2002-2006 surpassed the national growth rate and all other Southern states.77 Alabama’s per capita income grew 23.1 percent during that time, ahead of Virginia, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas, Kentucky and

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Mississippi.78 Alabama workers saw their average weekly earnings increase 4.7% in 2006, the fastest growth rate in five years.79 From 2004 to 2006, the number of people in poverty in Alabama decreased from 762,000 to 650,000.80 Of all of the states in the Union, Alabama ranks at the bottom in state and local taxes paid per person in fiscal 2005, according to statistics recently released by the U.S. Census Bureau.81 Alabama is one of the least costly states in which to do business, but the state's cost is creeping up as it attracts more business development. A study by the Milken Institute shows Alabama ranks No. 39 in business costs with an 85.8 index. That means that 38 states have a higher cost of doing business, and running a business in Alabama costs about 86 percent of the national average.82 Alabama’s climate and land is ideally suited for raising cattle. Cattle are produced in every county and cattle production represents a $3 billion industry in Alabama. Cattle producers sold over $469 million worth of cattle and calves in 2007.83 Alabama has 540,000 people -- or about one out of every eight citizens -- who receive food stamps, which are already exempt from state and local sales taxes.84 In Alabama, 4.77 residents per 1,000 file for bankruptcy on an annual basis compared with the national average of 2.52 per 1,000.85 The cost of housing in Alabama is about 38 percent less than the national average and the state has some of the lowest property taxes in the country.86 Alabama is the only state with an income tax threshold for a family of four below $10,000.87 The Centers for Disease Control reports more than 65 percent of Alabama residents are either overweight or obese.88

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Connecticut Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


CONNECTICUT Closed primary

Only registered party members can vote in their own party's primary.


Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.


Pledged delegates (district-level and statewide) are winner-take-all by statewide vote.

Connecticut Super Tuesday is a particular challenge for Obama, who trails Clinton in most national polls. Three of the biggest states voting -- New York, New Jersey and Connecticut -- are in Clinton's backyard.89 Clinton, a senator from neighboring New York who already spoke to more than 1,000 people in Hartford earlier this week, had a big lead over Obama in a University of Connecticut poll last week, but more recent polls show the state is a battleground.90 Sen. Dodd is expected to remain neutral in Connecticut's Democratic presidential primary. Dodd, D-Conn., dropped his bid for the Democratic presidential nomination after a poor finish in the Iowa caucuses in early January. Obama and Clinton will campaign in Connecticut Monday.91 McCain could do well as moderate Northeastern states like Connecticut. 92 Connecticut's other senator, Joe Lieberman, I-Conn., has endorsed McCain in the race for the Republican presidential nomination. McCain will be at Sacred Heart University in Fairfield on Sunday.93 State officials say thousands of newly registered Connecticut voters could push turnout in Tuesday's primary to record levels. More than 24,600 new voters have registered since Nov. 1, Secretary of the State Susan Bysiewicz said. There are more than 11,000 newly registered Democrats and more than 4,600 Republicans. Nearly 9,000 new voters are unaffiliated and have until Monday to choose a party if they want to vote in a primary.94 Connecticut History Connecticut’s presidential primary, though held fairly early in the process, has not been quite early enough and has made little difference. Many winners of the state’s primary have fared no better than the Federalists Connecticut favored in 1816.95

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Connecticut has gained recognition for supporting the underdog in Democratic primaries, leading to quirky outcomes that went against the national trend. U.S. Sen. Ted Kennedy of Massachusetts defeated then-President Carter in the 1980 primary, while Sen. Gary Hart defeated eventual nominee Walter Mondale in 1984. Former California Gov. Jerry Brown won Connecticut's primary in 1992 over eventual nominee Bill Clinton, and even Sen. Paul Tsongas had a strong showing in his next-door state despite having withdrawn from the race.96 In 1995, Connecticut moved its primary to coincide with primaries in Massachusetts, Rhode Island, Maine and Vermont. Proponents hoped that more candidates would visit if the northeastern states were lumped together.97 The state didn’t see enough new interest to satisfy its political appetites. Connecticut’s Democratic primary has never produced a president: Al Gore and John Kerry won in 2000 and 2004 but were not elected. In 2000 voter turnout for the Republican presidential primary was 40.8%. Voter turnout for the 2004 Democratic presidential primary totaled 20.8%.98 In 2004, Kerry, a next-door neighbor with high name recognition, pulled ahead of runner-up John Edwards in a sleepy primary that got overshadowed nationally by the attention given to New York, California and other large states on Super Tuesday. With no television advertising or appearances by the major Democratic candidates in Connecticut, many voters were unaware of the low-profile primary, prompting a low turnout. Connecticut's native son, U.S. Sen. Joseph I. Lieberman of New Haven, who dropped out of the race last month, came in third with 5 percent of the vote.99 2008 will be the 8th presidential election cycle since Connecticut's Presidential primary law was passed by the General Assembly in 1977 that replaced local party primaries with a statewide primary. Nine Republicans and eight Democrats will appear on the ballot in Connecticut when primary voters go to the polls on February 5; even though many of those candidates aren’t still in the race. That's the largest number since Connecticut began holding statewide presidential primaries in 1980.100 Connecticut's presidential primary had been on the first Tuesday in March since 1995.101 Now the state is hoping to have a greater impact on the nomination process by joining the flood of states on Feb. 5. While Connecticut was once an afterthought for most presidential contenders, it could get more attention from the candidates this year after moving up its primary to Super Tuesday. Connecticut had been at risk of becoming irrelevant in the nominating process because other states were choosing earlier primary dates. Because Connecticut had Chris Dodd and so many other states moved their primaries forward (like neighboring New York), Connecticut decided to follow the trend this year. The primary has moved from its previous date the first Tuesday in March. 102 Yale University political science professor Donald Green said Connecticut is not a costly state to compete in because there are fewer media markets in which candidates must advertise. This makes it a good bargain state. Connecticut has become a big donor state for the candidates. In December, former child star-turned-movie director Ron Howard hosted a fundraiser for Clinton at his Greenwich home. The event capped off a busy year of fundraisers in lower Fairfield County, which also received visits from Obama, Mitt Romney, Rudy Giuliani and John McCain.103

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CONNECTICUT PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 66,356 (67%)Buchanan (R) 21,815 (22%)Uncommitted 9,008 (9%)Duke (R) 2,294 (2%)

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Brown (D) 64,472 (37%)Clinton (D) 61698 (36%)Tsongas (D) 33,811 (20%)Uncommitted 5,430 (3%)Other 4,620 (3%)Harkin (D) 1,919 (1%)Kerrey (D) 1,169 (1%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 70,998 (54%) Forbes (R) 26,253 (20%) Buchanan (R) 19,664 (15%) Alexander (R) 6,985 (5%) Other 2,814 (2%) Keyes (R) 2,209 (2%)Lugar (R) 1,495 (1%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary McCain (R) 87,176 (49%)Bush (R) 82,881 (46%)Keyes (R) 5,913 (3%)Other 1,773 (1%)Forbes (R) 1,242 (1%)

2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 99,312 (55%)Bradley (D) 73,589 (42%)Other 5,400 (3%)

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 75,860 (58%)Edwards (D) 30,844 (24%)Lieberman (D) 6,705 (5%)Dean (D) 5,166 (4%)Kucinich (D) 4,133 (3%)Other 7,315 (6%)

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Profile of Connecticut Connecticut had a 2007 population of 3.5 million. Colorado has a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites and a higher percentage of college graduates than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics. About 63 percent of Connecticut’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which was comparable to the national figure of 64 percent. Selected Characteristics Connecticut U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 2.8% 7.2% Median age 39.0 36.4 Women 51.3% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 74.8% 66.4% Black alone 10.2% 12.8% Hispanic 11.2% 14.8% Median household income $63,422 $48,451 Foreign born 12.9% 12.5% Persons below poverty 8.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 33.7% 27.0% Median home value $298,900 $185,200104 On balance Connecticut these days is mostly a Democratic state. It has two Democratic senators, though Lieberman, triumphant over Lamont in November, calls himself an Independent Democrat. High-income voters have trended toward the Democrats on cultural issues. The state whose ban on contraceptives produced the Supreme Court’s Griswold decision in 1965, the precursor of Roe v. Wade, is now solidly for abortion rights, and its legislature passed a law in 2005 legalizing civil unions for same-sex couples. Perhaps in reaction, there has been a smaller countervailing move by some blue-collar workers and Catholics toward the Republicans.105 A poll shows CT Democrats split about evenly over whether electing the first woman or the first African-American would be the most "historic" event.106 In Connecticut, far more women have held public office than blacks. Connecticut has seen two women governors, six congresswomen and 18 women in statewide office, while there have been no African American governors, one black congressman and five black statewide officeholders. Women make up slightly more than half the state's population; African Americans comprise about 10 percent.107 It was one of the original 13 states and is one of the six New England states. Connecticut is located in the northeastern corner of the country. In area it is the third smallest U.S. state, but it ranks among the most densely populated.108 Connecticut is by many measures the nation’s highest-income state and quite likely the wealthiest. Connecticut ranks second in new patents per capita, and a Milken Institute study ranked Connecticut number three among states in its ability to excel in the information economy.109 Connecticut is now the home of such world-wide organizations as Xerox, G.E., Uniroyal, G.T.E., Olin, Champion International, and Union Carbide. Among its better-known corporate industries, however are its insurance companies.

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Connecticut began to earn its reputation as the Insurance State more than 180 years ago. Marine insurance, the great grandfather of all modern forms of insurance, had its start in Connecticut with coverage for ships and cargoes which sailed from the state’s ocean and river ports to the Caribbean. Fire insurance got its formal start in 1794; other types - life, accident, casualty, health - followed over the next century. There are 106 insurance companies based in Connecticut. While agriculture no longer holds its once-prominent position in Connecticut’s economy, farming is still important to the state. The most important crops are dairy, poultry, forest and nursery, tobacco, vegetables and fruit.110 According to the ACS, Connecticut retained its position as the wealthiest state in the union, with a median family income of $78,154. Connecticut ranked third in the measure of household income, at $63,422.111 Mortgage defaults and foreclosures in Connecticut's cities have skyrocketed over the past year, as homeowners buckle under the weight of rising costs associated with subprime and predatory loans, a real estate tracking company has found.112 People of European descent now constitute about three-fourths of Connecticut's total population, while African Americans and Hispanics each comprise nearly one-tenth. Asians and small numbers of Native Americans and Pacific Islanders make up most of the remainder. More than half of the state's population is Roman Catholic. Protestants, Orthodox, and other Christians and a small proportion of Jews make up the other half.113 Most Connecticut residents today are descendants of Catholic immigrants who arrived here between 1840 and 1924. There has been an influx of immigrants from Mexico, Peru, the Dominican Republic and other parts of Latin America, who fill jobs others let go begging; Hispanics are now the state’s largest minority group.114 When it comes to reading levels, the gaps between black or Hispanic and white students in Connecticut are the widest in the nation. Statewide, there are 12,834 third-graders at or below basic levels on the reading portion of the Connecticut Mastery Test—enough to fill 178 school buses.115 Connecticut is renowned for its many private schools and colleges. Yale University (1701), an Ivy League school, is regarded as one of the world's great universities; other private institutions, such as Wesleyan University (1831) in Middletown, also have national recognition. The United States Coast Guard Academy is located at New London.116

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Delaware Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


DELAWARE Closed primary

Only registered party members may vote in their own party's primary.


Pledged delegates (district-level and statewide) are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.


Pledged delegates (district-level and statewide) are winner-take-all according to statewide vote.

Delaware McCain could do well as moderate Northeastern states like Delaware. 117 Delaware Gov. Ruth Ann Minner has endorsed Clinton in the Democratic presidential primary.118 Delaware History Before 1992, Delaware did not host primary campaigns. Instead, state parties elected delegates to attend the national conventions.119 Delaware passed a law in 1992 to establish presidential primaries in the state. The first vote was in 1996, following that of New Hampshire by four days. 120 In 1996 Delaware vied for attention by holding its presidential primary February 24, just four days after New Hampshire. But New Hampshire Republicans put pressure on candidates to ignore Delaware, and only Steve Forbes and Alan Keyes showed up here.121 Bob Dole ignored Delaware in 1996, allowing Forbes to take the state and its 12 delegates.122 For 2000 Republicans decided to hold a primary on February 9, nine days after New Hampshire. George W. Bush, who spent two full days in Delaware, led with 51%, well ahead of John McCain (25%) and the still-remembered Forbes (20%). The 2000 Democratic primary, held February 5, was outside the Democrats’ rules and neither candidate campaigned, and only 11,000 voters turned out; Al Gore led Bill Bradley 57%-40%.123 State lawmakers raised Delaware's political profile in 2003 when they moved the presidential primary from the Saturday after New Hampshire's primary to the first Tuesday in February. Before the law was changed, state-run presidential contests in Delaware amounted to nonbinding "beauty contests." That's because national party rules prevent another state from holding a binding primary earlier than a week after New Hampshire's vote.124 In 2004, Delaware scheduled its primary one week after New Hampshire, on February 3, but it was only one of several states voting that day. Joseph Lieberman, endorsed by Senator Tom Carper, Lieutenant Governor John Carney and Treasurer Jack Markell, paid several trips to Delaware. Other candidates were scarcer. John Kerry won the primary with 50% of the vote;

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Lieberman ran second with 11%, in what amounted to a tie with John Edwards, Howard Dean and Wesley Clark.125

DELWARE PRIMARY RESULTS

No Presidential Primaries in DE in 1992.

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Forbes (R) 10,709 (33%) Dole (R) 8,909 (27%) Buchanan (R) 6,118 (19%) Alexander (R) 4,375 (13%) Keyes (R) 1,729 (5%) Lugar (R) 717 (2%) Other 216 (1%)

1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 9,694 (90%) LaRouche (D) 1,046 (10%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 15,250 (51%)McCain (R) 7,638 (25%)Forbes (R) 5,883 (20%)Keyes (R) 1,148 (4%)Other 141 (1%)

2000 Democratic Presidential Primary Gore (D) 6,377 (57%)Bradley (D) 4,476 (40%)LaRouche (D) 288 (3%)

2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 16,787 (50%)Lieberman (D) 3,706 (11%)Edwards (D) 3,674 (11%)Dean (D) 3,462 (10%)Clark (D) 3,165 (10%)Other 2,497 (8%) Profile of Delaware Delaware is the nation’s 10th fastest-growing state. Its 2007 population of about 865,000 grew by 10.4 percent between 2000 and 2007. The U.S. population grew by 7.2 percent during that same period. Delaware has a higher percentage of non-Hispanic whites, a higher percentage of blacks and a higher median household income than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

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About 66 percent of Delaware’s voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, which was slightly higher than the national figure of 64 percent.

Selected Characteristics Delaware U.S. Population change: 2000-2007 10.4% 7.2% Median age 37.5 36.4 Women 51.5% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 69.0% 66.4% Black alone 20.9% 12.8% Hispanic 6.3% 14.8% Median household income $52,833 $48,451 Foreign born 8.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 11.1% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 27.0% 27.0% Median home value $227,100 $185,200126 Nicknamed "The First State," Delaware was the first state to ratify the Constitution. Delaware is the second smallest state in area, and the sixth smallest in population. Through most of its history, Delaware has been unusually affluent. Delaware’s considerable variety has produced a robust two-party politics in which tiny Delaware has often voted like the nation as a whole. But in the 1990s Delaware, like so many of America’s largest metro areas, trended toward the Democrats. In 2000 Al Gore carried the state 55%-42% and in 2004 John Kerry carried it 53%-46%.127 The Democratic and Republican parties have been fairly evenly matched in Delaware, although the Democrats generally have the larger number of registered voters. Many voters decline to list party preference, and numerous swing votes may go to either side. Primaries had little significance until 1978, when they were first used for all elective offices. More than two-thirds of the state's population is white, one-fifth African American, and the remainder Native American, Hispanic, and Asian. About two-thirds of Delaware's population lives in New Castle County. Wilmington, the largest city, is situated in the area where the Brandywine, Christina, and Delaware rivers come together. The suburbs of Wilmington, including the smaller cities of Newark and New Castle, account for the largest share of the state's population. Over the years Delaware has been called the chemical capital, the corporate capital, and the credit-card capital of the United States. Its liberal incorporation laws and a Court of Chancery that specializes in the most-complex issues of corporate governance and finance have encouraged many American and foreign businesses to make Delaware their nominal home.128 Delaware is the preferred legal home to big business. Sixty-one percent of the country's Fortune 500 companies are incorporated in Delaware. Half of the companies traded on the New York Stock Exchange and Nasdaq have their legal home here. More than 70 percent of initial public stock offerings on U.S. exchanges last year were by companies incorporated in Delaware. This activity fuels a thriving legal industry in the state, including a community of major law firms and support services. In addition, it provides the state with taxes, fees and other income that represents about one-third of Delaware's $3.3 billion in annual revenue.129

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The State has never had a general sales tax or an inventory tax. There are no State real property taxes, and the local real property taxes are very low. The total State and local tax burden in Delaware is competitive with most other states.130 The number of home sales is down significantly from the peak two years ago, homes are sitting longer on the market, and foreclosures, fueled by rising interest rates on subprime mortgages, are climbing.131 Foreclosure filings in Delaware increased by almost 30 percent between 2006 and 2007 to 20 percent higher than the previous record set in 2003.132 Big job losses at Bank of America and potential cuts at Chrysler and General Motors plants add to the feeling of unease, even though unemployment is at a low 3.8 percent. Delaware's auto manufacturing sector took a hit in 2007 when Chrysler split from Daimler AG and announced its Newark plant would close in 2009. Bank of America had quietly shed about 3,000 jobs after absorbing credit card giant MBNA Corp. in 2006, once the state's largest employer. The credit card industry employs 15,498 people in Delaware, and was a bright spot for the banking industry in 2007. But experts say it could suffer in 2008, when foreclosures are expected to peak and a spike in bankruptcy filings could drive up credit card defaults. Health care employment, however, has been booming even as the state loses jobs in other sectors. Christiana Care recently announced it will add as many as 600 jobs in the next five years as part of a $205 million expansion of Wilmington Hospital. Health care accounts for 41,700 jobs in the state, according to Moody's.133

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Illinois Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


ILLINOIS Open primary

Registered voters can participate in either primary.


Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD, with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.

57 in the primary 57 district level 0 statewide Total: 57

Pledged district-level delegates face a direct election of delegates pledged to a particular candidate. Unpledged statewide delegates are chosen by the state convention. (Results of the primary vote do not affect this allocation).

Illinois Obama is expected to do well in his home state. But Clinton, a Chicago native, is competing actively for delegates here. 134 The state is up for grabs on the Republican side. McCain has an edge in recent polls, but Romney has some semblance of a campaign to build upon. Romney's Midwestern roots -- he was born and raised in Michigan -- could help him. Both plan to spend time in Illinois in the coming days, primarily to raise money in Chicago. The Chicago suburbs and the city itself may be more amenable to McCain, while the rural, more conservative southern swath of the state could lean toward Romney. Huckabee could peel votes away from him should Christian evangelicals in the south turn out. Delegates are won congressional district by congressional district. 135 Illinois Primary History The first early presidential primary in Illinois was in 1972, after the General Assembly moved the date to March from June. In 1972 and in 1976, the state's centralized Democratic and Republican Party organizations dictated which presidential hopefuls partisans would support and who would attend party conventions as delegates. That practice backfired on Mayor Richard J. Daley in 1972 when the Democratic National Convention delegation he was leading to Miami was ousted in a party rules fight.136 Illinois clinched the nominations for Republican victors Gerald Ford in 1976, Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George Bush in 1988, and Democratic victors Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 and Bill Clinton in 1992.137 In the 1984 Illinois presidential primary, Chicago Mayor Harold Washington outmaneuvered Jesse Jackson by fielding a favorite-son delegate slate, which included some Jackson supporters, in the city's three black-majority congressional districts. At a time when Jackson was threatening a possible floor fight over party rules at the Democratic National Convention,

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Washington was calling for party unity. But Jackson embarrassed Washington by pressuring Walter Mondale into breaking off negotiations for the Chicago mayor's endorsement. At the convention, however, Washington's delegates wound up voting for Jackson, mostly because of constituency politics.138 In 1988 the Democratic nomination would probably have been clinched here for Michael Dukakis, except for the dominance of two Illinois candidates, Paul Simon and Jesse Jackson.139 In 1992, with former Massachusetts Sen. Paul Tsongas standing by during a one-hour TV debate in Chicago, Brown launched a harsh, personal attack on the Democratic front-runner Bill Clinton, citing a Washington Post story published Sunday that raised questions about the relationship between the state of Arkansas and the law firm of which Hillary Clinton is a partner. Clinton ardently defended his wife's integrity, and he charged that Brown's attack was driven by electoral desperation and poll results. The confrontation came as the three Democrats met for the last time before the presidential primaries in Illinois and Michigan.140 In 1992, Illinois played a major role in Bill Clinton's quest for the Democratic nomination. After winning several smaller states and his native South, Clinton's win in a state seen as a microcosm of the nation proved his viability for the general election.141 George W. Bush and Al Gore won the presidential primaries in Illinois in 2000. McCain appeared on the ballot although he is no longer running for president. On the Democratic side, Gore won an easy victory over Bradley, who had also dropped from the race.142 In the 2004 Illinois Democratic primary, John Kerry received 72% of the vote.143 In 1999, Gov. George Ryan said after meeting with the Republican State Central Committee at the Hilton Springfield that he'd like to see regional primaries or a one-day national primary instead of the state-by-state progression that now exists. "It's over by the time they get to Illinois," Ryan said of presidential contests. "Why do we even have a primary?"144 In January 2007 Speaker Michael Madigan proposed moving the primary to February 5, to help Illinois’s Barack Obama; the bill was signed into law in June 2007.145

ILLINOIS PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 634,588 (76%)Buchanan (R) 186,915 (23%)Other 9,637 (1%)

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 776,829 (52%)Tsongas (D) 387,891 (26%)Brown (D) 220,346 (15%)Uncommitted 67,612 (5%)Harkin (D) 30,710 (2%)Kerry (D) 10,916 (1%)Other 9,826 (1%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 532,467 (65%)

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Buchanan (R) 186,177 (23%) Forbes (R) 39,906 (5%) Keyes (R) 30,052 (4%) Alexander 12,585 (2%) Other 8,891 (1%)Lugar 8,286 (1%)

1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinto (D) 770,001 (96%)Other 16,051 (2%)LaRouche (D) 14,624 (2%)

March 7, 2000 Democratic Caucus Gore (D) (63%) Bradley (D) (33%) Other (4%)

March 7, 2000 Republican Caucus Bush (R) %) Keyes (R) 0%) McCain (R) (%) Forbes (R) (0%) Other (0%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 496,646 (67%)McCain (R) 158,768 (22%)Keyes (R) 66,066 (9%)Forbes (R) 10,334 (1%)Other 5,068 (1%)


February 24, 2004 Democratic Caucus Kerry (D) (54%) Edwards (D) (22%) Dean (D) (11%) Kucinich (D) (5%) Clark (D) (0%) Other (7%)


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Kerry (D) 873,230 (72%)Edwards (D) 131,966 (11%)Braun (D) 53,249 (4%)Dean (D) 47,343 (4%)Sharpton (D) 36,123 (3%)Other 75,604 (6%) Profile of Illinois About 66 percent of Illinois’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, slightly above the national rate of 64 percent.

Illinois’ 2007 population of 12.9 million includes a higher median household income and median home value than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

Selected Characteristics Illinois U.S. Median age 35.7 36.4 Women 50.8% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 65.3% 66.4% Black alone 15.0% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 14.7% 14.8% Median household income $52,006 $48,451 Foreign born 13.8% 12.5% Persons below poverty 12.3% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 25+) 28.9% 27.0% Median home value $200,200 $185,200146 The name "Illinois" comes from a Native American word meaning "tribe of superior men." It became a state on December 3, 1818 and was the 21st state to enter the Union. When Illinois became a state in 1818, it had a population of 34,620 people. Illinois is now the sixth most populous state in the country with almost 11.5 million people.147 Chicago’s nickname, "The Windy City," dates back to the earliest days of Illinois' statehood. The phrase was coined by politicians from the downstate capital, Springfield, who became impatient with the long speeches from the Chicago contingent. These politicians referred to them as "windbags" from "the windy city." It is just a coincidence that Chicago sometimes has windy weather.148 Illinois is the most average state, according to an Associated Press analysis of data from the Census Bureau. Its racial composition matches the nation's better than any other state. Education levels are similar, as is the mix of industry and the percentage of immigrants. Incomes in Illinois are a little higher and the state is more urban than the rest of the nation. But the age of the population is very close to the country's mix of minors, seniors and those 18 to 64.149 The number of blacks in Cook County, Ill., as of July 1, 2006 was 1.4 million. Cook led all the nation’s counties in the number of people of this racial category.150

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Illinois has population characteristics similar to those of the country as a whole: cities continue to lose whites to suburban areas, while both the number and proportion of African Americans and Latinos within the larger cities have increased.

Because of its great length, Illinois exhibits qualities characteristic of both the Northern and Southern regions of the United States; although its northern portion touches the Upper Midwest, its southern point is actually farther south than Richmond, Va., and has great affinities with neighboring Kentucky and Missouri. Further contrasts derive from the racial and ethnic complexity of the population.

Politically, Illinois has tended to be a “swing state,” its votes often mirroring fluctuating social tensions that underlie the growing, but unevenly distributed, economic prosperity.151 It is one of the top-ranking states in total exports, playing a crucial role in the nation’s economy. It leads the nation in soybean and corn production and is also a top producer of hogs, cattle, sheep, and poultry. Its main mining products are soft coal and petroleum. The state has a large and diverse manufacturing sector including steel stock, agricultural machinery, diesel engines, trains and train equipment, and machine tools.152

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Massachusetts Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


MASS. Semi-open primary

Registered party members can only vote in their own party's primary, but independents may vote in either contest.


Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD with a 15% threshold. Pledged statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote, with a 15% threshold.


Pledged district-level delegates are allocated proportionally, with a 15% threshold. Statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.

Massachusetts Polls show Clinton in a strong position here, but Obama has the support of Gov. Deval Patrick, the nation's only black governor, as well as Sens. Ted Kennedy and John Kerry. Kennedy and Kerry are helping organize the state for Obama and will campaign for him in other Feb. 5 states. The Obama campaign points out that Massachusetts, like New Jersey, allows independent voters to participate in the primary, a characteristic they believe favors his campaign.153 Massachusetts, Romney’s home state, should be an easy state for Romney. 154 McCain might seek a knockout blow in Romney's home state of Massachusetts, where McCain plans to campaign this weekend and aides see a chance of a victory.155 Massachusetts Primary History In Massachusetts primaries, Republican voters have backed eight of the last ten eventual nominees; Democratic voters have backed only five of the last ten eventual nominees. The first Massachusetts presidential primary was held in 1912. The emphasis has shifted from selecting delegates not pledged to particular candidates, to a popular vote with delegates apportioned on the result.156 In 1960, when native son John F. Kennedy was in the running, turnout was only 9.2 percent of those eligible, but that year candidates' names were not printed on the ballot. 1976 brought a very low turnout when only 32.2 percent of eligible voters voted in a snowstorm.157 President Gerald R. Ford beat Ronald Reagan here but Sen. Henry Jackson of Washington won on the Democratic side. Jimmy Carter, the party's nominee, was fourth.158 In 1980, Massachusetts voters went against the tide in both primaries. Republicans backed Bush over Illinois Rep. John B. Anderson and Reagan, the party's nominee. Meanwhile, Edward M. Kennedy, the state's senior senator, beat President Carter, who ultimately turned back Kennedy's challenge.

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In 1984, President Reagan won on the Republican side, but Democrats in Massachusetts were a bump in the road to nomination for former vice president Walter F. Mondale. Colorado Sen. Gary Hart upset Mondale in Massachusetts.159 Both Bush and former Gov. Michael S. Dukakis won 57 percent of the Bay State's vote in their respective 1988 primaries.160 In 1992, former Sen. Paul E. Tsongas won in his home state. President Bush gathered 69 percent to Buchanan's 29 percent.161 In 1996, the state's Republicans were in the mainstream with Sen. Bob Dole. With Dole going on to win his party’s nomination and President Clinton moving easily toward reelection, Massachusetts presidential primary voters backed both November finalists for only the second time in 20 years.162 In 2000, Massachusetts voted solidly for Al Gore and John McCain, as many independents reregistered as Republicans.163 In 2004, Massachusetts voters served up a lopsided victory for favorite political son John Kerry in the state's Democratic presidential primary, one of a string of key Super Tuesday victories that put him on a most-certain path toward the nomination. Kerry won with 72% of the vote, followed by Edwards with 18%, while the rest of the field, including some candidates who had already dropped out but whose names remained on the ballot, trailed well behind in the single digits.164

MASSACHUSETTS PRIMARY RESULTS

1992 Republican Presidential Primary Bush (R) 176,868 (66%)Buchanan (R) 74,797 (28%)Uncommitted 10,132 (4%)Duke (R) 5,557 (2%)Other 2,347 (1%)

1992 Democratic Presidential Primary Tsongas (D) 526,297 (66%)Brown (D) 115,746 (15%)Clinton (D) 86,817 (11%)Other 42,654 (5%)Uncommitted 12,198 (2%)Kerrey (D) 5,409 (1%)Harkin (D) 3,764 (1%)

1996 Republican Presidential Primary Dole (R) 135,946 (48%) Buchanan (R) 71,688 (25%) Forbes (R) 39,605 (14%) Alexander (R) 21,456 (8%) Other 6,171 (2%)

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Keyes (R) 5,224 (2%)Lugar (R) 4,743 (2%)

1996 Democratic Presidential Primary Clinton (D) 135,360 (87%)Uncommitted 12,623 (8%)LaRouche (D) 5,212 (3%)Other 2,275 (2%)

2000 Republican Presidential Primary McCain (R) 324,708 (65%)Bush (R) 159,534 (32%)Keyes (R) 12,630 (3%)Other 5,079 (1%)


2004 Democratic Presidential Primary Kerry (D) 440,964 (72%)Edwards (D) 108,051 (18%)Kucinich (D) 25,198 (4%)Dean (D) 17,076 (3%)Sharpton (D) 6,123 (1%)Other 17,776 (3%) Profile of Massachusetts About 69 percent of Massachusetts’ voting-age citizens cast a ballot in the 2004 general election, above the national rate of 64 percent.

Massachusetts’ 2007 population of 6.4 million includes a higher percentage of the non-Hispanic white-alone population and a lower percentage of Hispanics and blacks than the nation as a whole, according to U.S. Census Bureau statistics.

Selected Characteristics Massachusetts U.S. Median age 38.2 36.4 Women 51.6% 50.7% White alone, not Hispanic or Latino 80.0% 66.4% Black alone 6.9% 12.8% Hispanic or Latino 7.9% 14.8% Median household income $59,963 $48,451 Foreign born 14.1% 12.5% Persons below poverty 9.9% 13.3% Bachelor’s degree or higher (age 37.0% 27.0%

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25+) Median home value $370,400 $185,200165 Massachusetts is center stage because its health coverage program is the most ambitious up-and-running initiative in the nation; it requires nearly all residents to get health insurance. The state avoided a broad-based tax increase by using $375 million of federal Medicaid to help low-income residents buy private insurance. By December, at least 290,000 Massachusetts residents had signed up for new health coverage. That’s between half and two-thirds of the estimated number of uninsured in the state.166 Independents are the largest voting bloc in Massachusetts – 13 percent of registered voters are Republican, 33 are Democrats, while the majority is unenrolled in a political party.167 Massachusetts is the only state where same-sex marriage is legal.168 Massachusetts is now largely Roman Catholic, though its religious foundation was solidly Protestant. The Pilgrims, who established the Plymouth colony in 1620, and the Puritan settlers went to Massachusetts mainly for religious reasons. Following colonial patterns, churches often are found in the most prominent places of the towns and villages, symbolizing their traditional central role in social life.169 Massachusetts is one of the original 13 states (6th) of the Union (February 6, 1788). Boston, the capital of Massachusetts since its founding, dates from 1630. The Massachusetts Constitution was ratified in 1780 while the Revolutionary War was still in progress, nine years before the United States Constitution was adopted. It is the oldest written Constitution now in use in the world. It specified three branches of Government: Executive, Legislative, and Judicial. Massachusetts has undergone a profound economic transition over the past ten years. During the 1990s, especially between 1993 and 2000, great statewide economic expansion occurred. The Commonwealth expanded its export sector in the following industries: information technology, financial services, knowledge creation, health care, traditional manufacturing and travel and tourism.170 The economy of Massachusetts today is based largely on technological research and development and the service sector (including tourism). Massachusetts now usually ranks as one of the top U.S. states in value of fish landings. Southeastern Massachusetts and Cape Cod produce about two-fifths of the U.S. cranberry supply. Many of the country's oldest and most prestigious institutions of higher learning, in addition to Harvard, are located in Massachusetts. The largest, both in Boston, are Boston University and Northeastern University.171

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Missouri Primary – Latest Poll Closing 8:00 PM


MISSOURI Open primary

Registered voters may participate in either primary.


Pledged district-level delegates are allocated according to the primary vote in each CD with a 15% threshold. Statewide delegates are allocated according to the statewide vote with a 15% threshold.


All delegates (district-level, statewide and RNC members) are winner-take-all by statewide vote.

Missouri It's a toss-up between McCain, Romney and Huckabee. All three plan stops in the state or already have visited in recent weeks; the attention underscores the prize, again winner-take-all. Huckabee hopes his ties to the religious right give him a boost. Romney has Midwestern ties and the support of Gov. Matt Blunt -- and access to Blunt's political organization. The state, very conservative in Republican primaries, is not a natural fit for McCain. But he may benefit from Huckabee competing in the state. Huckabee and Romney could split the vote on the right, making way for McCain to rack up another win. It's also possible for McCain to benefit at least a little from Giuliani's support in Missouri, where the former mayor had the backing of longtime Sen. Kit Bond. Yet there is no love lost between Bond, an appropriator, and McCain, the pork buster. 172 Huckabee said Jan. 29 that he must win Missouri's primary if he is to have a chance at the Republican nomination for president.173 For a century, voters in Missouri have proven to be a nearly perfect gauge of the nation's thinking on presidential candidates, swaying from Democrats to Republicans and back again, but always (besides a certain election in 1956) voting in general elections for the candidate who ultimately wins the nation. The battle for Missouri is very pronounced, in part because of its bellwether status. A victory here, political experts say, carries symbolism when it comes to answering questions about electability from the rest of the country. If you can win here, the thinking goes, you can win anywhere. And if you can't, well, you can't. A poll of Missouri Republicans last week for The St. Louis Post-Dispatch and a television station showed a tight race: McCain with 31 percent; Huckabee, 25 percent; and Romney, 21 percent. The margin of sampling error was plus or minus five percentage points.

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The Post-Dispatch poll, this time of Democratic voters, showed Clinton ahead with 44 percent, Obama with 31 percent and John Edwards, who has since suspended his campaign, with 18 percent.174 Missouri History Missouri's caucus system is well over 100 years old. It long withstood the populist push for presidential primaries that began with Florida in 1904.175 This year's primary will be the fourth presidential primary held in Missouri. The other two took place in 1988, 2000, and 2004. In 1996, a law was passed that permanently established a presidential primary election in Missouri replacing the previously practiced caucus system.176 Missouri held a presidential primary in 1988, joining in on 1988’s Super Tuesday, and nearly 1 million voters turned out to support native son Richard A. Gephardt in the Democratic primary and to give George Bush a narrow victory over Bob Dole in the Republican contest. That was the closest Dole came to victory on that Super Tuesday.177 After 1988 Missouri went back to multi-tiered caucuses to elect delegates in 1992 and 1996. Missouri was a Bill Clinton state in both the spring and fall of 1992.178 Pat Buchanan's won a surprise victory in Missouri’s March 1996 Republican caucuses.179 In 2000 Missouri went back to the Super Tuesday primary. In 2000 Bush and Gore won easy victories, even though Gore’s rival Bill Bradley grew up in Jefferson County, Missouri. Since Missouri's presidential primary is "open,'' voters can take a ballot for either party's contest. And since the state doesn't register voters by party, that means non-aligned independents can vote in whichever contest features their favorite. Disenchanted partisans can switch camps without detection. So large turnouts in one party's primary could be good sign for their nominee nationally. In 2000, the Show Me State's last truly hard-fought presidential contest in both parties, the Republican turnout set a state record. That showing foretold Republican George W. Bush's success that fall.180 In 2004 Missouri was not much contested, because it was assumed Missouri’s Dick Gephardt would win there; but he dropped out before the February 3 primary. When Gephardt dropped out it set off a last-minute frenzy of activity from Democratic rivals who earlier had written off the state. Kerry won with 51% of the vote; John Edwards, apparently unable to make a connection with Missouri’s many southern-accented voters, won only 25%.181 In 2004, Missouri's Democratic turnout in the presidential primary set a record as Kerry and Edwards duked it out. Only 15 percent of Missouri voters turned out for the state's last presidential primary in 2004, largely because of a dismal

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