The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)

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The Structure of TrendsAnalyzing Trends Fall 2014

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patterns patterns

past present future

trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)

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patterns patterns

past present future

reading the evolution of signals what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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what forces shape how she buys?our choices are shaped by a cultural system of meaning

patterns patternspast present future

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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systems thinking: fast vs. slowthe signals that prompt us to decide and move forward

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trends are the output of cognitive systems

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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems

past present future

simplicity

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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems

past present future

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cognitive indexes to measure trend scenariosfinding the best signals that tells more of the story

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weather indexeswhat signals that the most accurate signal of weather conditions?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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the Uggs indexthe perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales.

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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the flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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the google flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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stock market indexwhat data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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bad indexes feed market bubblesthe value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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trends are stories (we must learn to read them)what happens next? what clues are there?

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setting language

perspective conflict

motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamicswhat moves the story forward?

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PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP

everyday trend narrativesfrom how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.

setting language

perspective conflict

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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid

rising action

climax

falling action

these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift

exposition denouement

image: @glennharper

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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid

rising action

climax

falling action

these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift

exposition denouement

image: @glennharper

patterns

notness

kinship

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brand communication as trend narrativehow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

2006 2009 2013

recovery

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politics

“stylish”

economic growth

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

“stylish”2006 2009

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

“awareness”“stylish”2006 2009

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

“awareness”“stylish”

2006 2009 2013

recovery

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

“awareness”“stylish”

2006 2009“equipped”

recovery

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brand communication evolveshow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

the physics of trendsunderstanding what will drive where things will be

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past present future

the physics of trends

THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response

understanding what will drive where things will be

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past present future

THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave

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past present future

THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave

THE PATHwhere the puck will be

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

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past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

government economics

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technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the codes?

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technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

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technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the codes? cyclical

MICRO TRENDS

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technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the codes? cyclical

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

sustained

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gather data and relate to the signals we see in culturedevelop a feed of data sources that track shifts in perception and behavior

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forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell?

MICRO TRENDS

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand

business case: Starbucks

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

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BOULANGERIES GROWLERS

sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

TREND FORCES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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STARBUCKS RETAIL

STARBUCKS VERISMO

TREND FORCES

forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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STARBUCKS BLUE BOTTLE

TREND FORCES

forecasting how brand competition will evolve

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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new starbucks campaign is not about coffee

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trend forces: economicsthe economy shapes our perception and behavior

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trend forces: stockpiling and shopping the pantryperceptions of what we need gets rewired as conditions change

shopping the pantry 2009

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

the great recession

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the great recession

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the codes?

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the codes?

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the codes? shopping

the pantry

MICRO TRENDS

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

the pantry

new normal

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the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

the pantry

new normal

global unrest

post-industrial

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trend forces: government involvementgovernment impacts our sense of security and optimism

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

corn subsidies

food science

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what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

corn subsidies

food science

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forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

corn subsidies

food science

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forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

cheap food

MICRO TRENDS

corn subsidies

food science

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forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

cheap food

health crisis

corn subsidies

food science

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if you ate a school lunch growing up you participated in that narrativetrend forces: school lunch as trend index

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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility

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forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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trend forces: technology and the future of shoppingthe next 50 years will be shaped by a different kind of mobility

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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as technology becomes more fused with the bodycan advertising work in an intimate world?

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vinyl records as cultural counter measuremeaning is relative to the response to other cultural phenonemum

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trend forces: social shiftshow do the conditions of culture play out in the behavior of culture

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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: the rise of the new dadeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: pets emerge as child surrogateseconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: a generation of singleswhat factors are contributing to this trend? what are the implications?

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our dating has become an extension of other algorithmsthe future of relationships

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we are constantly testing the potential perils of our present state of being

Her (2014)

do we need other humans to be social?

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the evolution of the personal profile fueled by new technologywhat happens when we eliminate chance?

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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?case: nike japan

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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?can the brand evolve as trend conditions change?

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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social context frames evolving expressionsocial dynamics are challenged by the unexpected events

bukatsufukushima

traditionmistrust

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the brand’s context in Japan

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country context shapes trend dynamics

http://geert-hofstede.com/japan.html

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creative analysis analysis of the existing narrative to see for where it can go next

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analytical expressive

collectiveIMPROVISATION

Downhill Biking

Skateboarding

SELF ACTUALIZATION

Triathlon

Bukatsu Baseball

Bukatsu Soccer

Futsal

Sepak Takraw

TECHNIQUE

patterns

migration

culture mapping the language and codes of sport in Japan

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OsakaTokyo

ANALYTIC EXPRESSIVE

STATIC

PROGRESSIVE

Bukatsu Baseball

Bukatsu Lacrosse

Bukatsu Track &

Bukatsu Cheerleading

Bukatsu Basketball

Bukatsu Soccer

Triathlon

RULES TECHNIQUE

IMPROVISATIONSELF ACTUALIZATION

Downhill Biking

Skateboarding

Futsal

Casual Basketball

Casual Soccer

Sepak Takraw

structuring ethnography on cognitive frameworks

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futsalaware

versatile

obsessed

study the signifiers of each scene

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outside affinities between sports and other activities

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planning how the brand will evolvethe future rests on how well the brand stays in sync with culture

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PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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analyzing the creative potential of the brand

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focuswhat I share

semiotic coding reveals the two sides to the product and where to place emphasis

sensationwhat I feel

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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empty celebrity endorsements as short cuts to cultural relevance

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the vodka category has become diluted with sweet me-too’s

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gen y gen x boomers silents

perception analysis grouped by generationflavor and ads introduce Gen Y to vodka. Choice simplifies with age.

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poland1996

sweden1879

pernod ricard

france1997

bacardi

sweden1998

constellation

holland1983

diageo

usa1997

fifth generation

latvia1901

wheat & rye

mapping rational and emotional perception of brandsperception analysis of packaging

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art-deco bottle

signature

speakeasy

Global

“triple distilled”

“premium”

“no. 21”

“purveyor to Russian court” pot still illustration

“small batch”

handcrafted

Holland

IMPORTED

1691, year distillery founded

vintage-style bottle

family crest

unpacking the language in the packagedoes the reality of the vodka live up to its label?

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finding important synergies beyond the category

great stories live outside the category

focuswhat I share

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reclaiming unique brand attributesreclaiming the narrative around process

focuswhat I share

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creative reframing of the brandcreative tonality from outside the category

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vodka as it should be 2013 with Jason Silva

launch in UK and Europe resulted in significant increase in sales

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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces

The Future of Work

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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces

1.research 3 significant statistics on Pew

email it to me on Canvas3.

write a brief 300 word forecast of the future of work based on this data

The Future of Work

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bring a laptop next week

For Next Week

check in on Tumblr

readings on Canvasemail me your assignment BEFORE class

check out Google Ngram https://books.google.com/ngrams

The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)

Business

Transcript of The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)

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