The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)
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Transcript of The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)
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The Structure of TrendsAnalyzing Trends Fall 2014
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patterns patterns
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past present future
trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)
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patterns patterns
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past present future
reading the evolution of signals what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
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what forces shape how she buys?our choices are shaped by a cultural system of meaning
patterns patternspast present future
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
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systems thinking: fast vs. slowthe signals that prompt us to decide and move forward
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trends are the output of cognitive systems
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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems
past present future
simplicity
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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems
past present future
vice
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cognitive indexes to measure trend scenariosfinding the best signals that tells more of the story
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weather indexeswhat signals that the most accurate signal of weather conditions?
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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the Uggs indexthe perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales.
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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the flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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the google flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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stock market indexwhat data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment?
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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bad indexes feed market bubblesthe value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value
what are the signals?
perception
what are the codes?
behavior
index
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trends are stories (we must learn to read them)what happens next? what clues are there?
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plot
setting language
perspective conflict
motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamicswhat moves the story forward?
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PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP
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everyday trend narrativesfrom how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.
plot
setting language
perspective conflict
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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid
rising action
climax
falling action
these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift
exposition denouement
image: @glennharper
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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid
rising action
climax
falling action
these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift
exposition denouement
image: @glennharper
patterns
notness
kinship
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brand communication as trend narrativehow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
2006 2009 2013
recovery
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth
2006
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politics
“stylish”
economic growth
2006
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“stylish”2006 2009
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“awareness”“stylish”2006 2009
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“awareness”“stylish”
2006 2009 2013
recovery
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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession
“awareness”“stylish”
2006 2009“equipped”
2013
recovery
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brand communication evolveshow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical
2014
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past present future
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
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the physics of trendsunderstanding what will drive where things will be
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past present future
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
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the physics of trends
THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response
understanding what will drive where things will be
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past present future
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
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the physics of trends
THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response
THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave
understanding what will drive where things will be
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past present future
I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky
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the physics of trends
THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response
THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave
THE PATHwhere the puck will be
understanding what will drive where things will be
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
technology
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
government economics
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
technology
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
what are the signals?
what are the codes?
government economics
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
technology
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes?
government economics
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
technology
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes? cyclical
MICRO TRENDS
government economics
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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.
past present futurepatterns patterns
technology
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes? cyclical
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
sustained
government economics
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gather data and relate to the signals we see in culturedevelop a feed of data sources that track shifts in perception and behavior
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forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell?
MICRO TRENDS
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand
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business case: Starbucks
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS
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TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation
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BOULANGERIES GROWLERS
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sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
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STARBUCKS RETAIL
STARBUCKS VERISMO
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TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve
CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
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STARBUCKS BLUE BOTTLE
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TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR
forecasting how brand competition will evolve
CODES
SIGNIFIERS
PERSONAL
TRANSPARENT
CRAFT
PHYSICAL
SOCIAL
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new starbucks campaign is not about coffee
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trend forces: economicsthe economy shapes our perception and behavior
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trend forces: stockpiling and shopping the pantryperceptions of what we need gets rewired as conditions change
shopping the pantry 2009
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
what are the signals?
what are the codes?
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
lack of credit
unemployment
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
what are the signals?
what are the codes?
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
lack of credit
unemployment
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes?
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
lack of credit
unemployment
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes? shopping
the pantry
MICRO TRENDS
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
lack of credit
unemployment
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes? shopping
the pantry
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
new normal
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trend forces impacting perception/behavior
2008
the great recession
deregulation
borrowed money
lack of credit
unemployment
HISTORICAL
aspirational culture
past present futurepatterns patterns
TREND FORCES
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
forecast scenarios
what are the signals?
what are the codes? shopping
the pantry
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
new normal
global unrest
post-industrial
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trend forces: government involvementgovernment impacts our sense of security and optimism
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
1960s
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
1960s
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
1960s
corn subsidies
food science
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
1960s
corn subsidies
food science
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
1960s
corn subsidies
food science
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
cheap food
MICRO TRENDS
1960s
corn subsidies
food science
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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
cheap food
MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS
health crisis
1960s
corn subsidies
food science
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if you ate a school lunch growing up you participated in that narrativetrend forces: school lunch as trend index
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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility
1960s
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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility
1960s
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility
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trend forces: technology and the future of shoppingthe next 50 years will be shaped by a different kind of mobility
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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as technology becomes more fused with the bodycan advertising work in an intimate world?
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vinyl records as cultural counter measuremeaning is relative to the response to other cultural phenonemum
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trend forces: social shiftshow do the conditions of culture play out in the behavior of culture
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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family
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trend forces: the rise of the new dadeconomics and other forces reshape the american family
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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family
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trend forces: pets emerge as child surrogateseconomics and other forces reshape the american family
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trend forces: a generation of singleswhat factors are contributing to this trend? what are the implications?
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our dating has become an extension of other algorithmsthe future of relationships
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we are constantly testing the potential perils of our present state of being
Her (2014)
do we need other humans to be social?
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the evolution of the personal profile fueled by new technologywhat happens when we eliminate chance?
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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?case: nike japan
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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?can the brand evolve as trend conditions change?
past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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social context frames evolving expressionsocial dynamics are challenged by the unexpected events
bukatsufukushima
traditionmistrust
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the brand’s context in Japan
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country context shapes trend dynamics
http://geert-hofstede.com/japan.html
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creative analysis analysis of the existing narrative to see for where it can go next
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analytical expressive
coun
ter
collectiveIMPROVISATION
Downhill Biking
Skateboarding
SELF ACTUALIZATION
Yoga
Triathlon
RULES
Bukatsu Baseball
Bukatsu Soccer
Futsal
Sepak Takraw
TECHNIQUE
patterns
migration
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culture mapping the language and codes of sport in Japan
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OsakaTokyo
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ANALYTIC EXPRESSIVE
STATIC
PROGRESSIVE
Bukatsu Baseball
Bukatsu Lacrosse
Bukatsu Track &
Field
Bukatsu Cheerleading
Bukatsu Basketball
Bukatsu Soccer
Yoga
Triathlon
RULES TECHNIQUE
IMPROVISATIONSELF ACTUALIZATION
Downhill Biking
Skateboarding
Futsal
Casual Basketball
Casual Soccer
Sepak Takraw
structuring ethnography on cognitive frameworks
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futsalaware
versatile
obsessed
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study the signifiers of each scene
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outside affinities between sports and other activities
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planning how the brand will evolvethe future rests on how well the brand stays in sync with culture
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past present futurepatterns patterns
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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past present futurepatterns patterns
forecast scenarios
what are the codes?
what are the signals?
PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR
TREND FORCES
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analyzing the creative potential of the brand
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focuswhat I share
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semiotic coding reveals the two sides to the product and where to place emphasis
sensationwhat I feel
LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
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empty celebrity endorsements as short cuts to cultural relevance
sensationwhat I feel
LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
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the vodka category has become diluted with sweet me-too’s
sensationwhat I feel
LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
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gen y gen x boomers silents
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perception analysis grouped by generationflavor and ads introduce Gen Y to vodka. Choice simplifies with age.
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poland1996
lvmh
rye
sweden1879
pernod ricard
wheat
france1997
bacardi
wheat
sweden1998
constellation
wheat
holland1983
diageo
wheat
usa1997
fifth generation
corn
latvia1901
spi
wheat & rye
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mapping rational and emotional perception of brandsperception analysis of packaging
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art-deco bottle
signature
speakeasy
Global
“triple distilled”
“premium”
“no. 21”
“purveyor to Russian court” pot still illustration
“small batch”
handcrafted
Holland
IMPORTED
1691, year distillery founded
vintage-style bottle
family crest
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unpacking the language in the packagedoes the reality of the vodka live up to its label?
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finding important synergies beyond the category
great stories live outside the category
focuswhat I share
LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
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reclaiming unique brand attributesreclaiming the narrative around process
focuswhat I share
LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY
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creative reframing of the brandcreative tonality from outside the category
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vodka as it should be 2013 with Jason Silva
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launch in UK and Europe resulted in significant increase in sales
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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces
The Future of Work
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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces
1.research 3 significant statistics on Pew
2.
email it to me on Canvas3.
write a brief 300 word forecast of the future of work based on this data
The Future of Work
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bring a laptop next week
For Next Week
check in on Tumblr
readings on Canvasemail me your assignment BEFORE class
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