The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)

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TIM STOCK 1 The Structure of Trends Analyzing Trends Fall 2014

description

evolving lecture series as part of courses in Analyzing Trends and Design & Management

Transcript of The Structure of Trends (Fall 2014)

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The Structure of TrendsAnalyzing Trends Fall 2014

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patterns patterns

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past present future

trends are about movement what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)

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patterns patterns

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past present future

reading the evolution of signals what is changing? (patterns) by what force? (codes emerge)

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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what forces shape how she buys?our choices are shaped by a cultural system of meaning

patterns patternspast present future

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

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systems thinking: fast vs. slowthe signals that prompt us to decide and move forward

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trends are the output of cognitive systems

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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems

past present future

simplicity

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the signals in objects we make reflect these systems

past present future

vice

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cognitive indexes to measure trend scenariosfinding the best signals that tells more of the story

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weather indexeswhat signals that the most accurate signal of weather conditions?

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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the Uggs indexthe perception of how long cold weather will last impacts sales.

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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the flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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the google flu indexhow can we predict outbreaks in illness before they have become epidemics?

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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stock market indexwhat data points offer the greatest yields to plan investment?

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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bad indexes feed market bubblesthe value of markets rests on how we read perceptions of value

what are the signals?

perception

what are the codes?

behavior

index

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trends are stories (we must learn to read them)what happens next? what clues are there?

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plot

setting language

perspective conflict

motivation and action are driven forward by cognitive dynamicswhat moves the story forward?

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PHOTO: FLICKR/TIGERLILLYSHOP

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everyday trend narrativesfrom how much salt to how fast... the choices we make in every category have an unconscious cultural line of sight.

plot

setting language

perspective conflict

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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid

rising action

climax

falling action

these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift

exposition denouement

image: @glennharper

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narrative dynamics/freytag’s pyramid

rising action

climax

falling action

these stories rise and fall as social dynamics shift

exposition denouement

image: @glennharper

patterns

notness

kinship

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brand communication as trend narrativehow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

2006 2009 2013

recovery

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth

2006

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politics

“stylish”

economic growth

2006

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“stylish”2006 2009

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“awareness”“stylish”2006 2009

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“awareness”“stylish”

2006 2009 2013

recovery

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brand communication as trend affirmationhow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

technology + economics + global politicseconomic growth recession

“awareness”“stylish”

2006 2009“equipped”

2013

recovery

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brand communication evolveshow brands communicate in sync with evolving trend sentiment is critical

2014

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

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the physics of trendsunderstanding what will drive where things will be

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

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the physics of trends

THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response

understanding what will drive where things will be

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

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the physics of trends

THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response

THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave

understanding what will drive where things will be

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past present future

I skate to where the puck is going to be, not where it has been. - Wayne Gretzky

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the physics of trends

THE ICE the conditions that define the physics of response

THE HIThow we perceive conditions and behave

THE PATHwhere the puck will be

understanding what will drive where things will be

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

government economics

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the signals?

what are the codes?

government economics

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes?

government economics

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes? cyclical

MICRO TRENDS

government economics

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analyzing cyclical and sustained trendshow trends emerge and sustain rests on the way forces impact real human scenarios and shift behavior.

past present futurepatterns patterns

technology

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes? cyclical

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

sustained

government economics

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gather data and relate to the signals we see in culturedevelop a feed of data sources that track shifts in perception and behavior

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forecasting near term - cyclical consumption what will sell?

MICRO TRENDS

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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understanding the cultural dimensions that will impact the brand

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business case: Starbucks

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

SHARING TABLES GREEN MARKETS

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TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

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BOULANGERIES GROWLERS

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sourcing emergent codes to fuel innovation

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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STARBUCKS RETAIL

STARBUCKS VERISMO

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TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

forecasting how innovation platforms will evolve

CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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STARBUCKS BLUE BOTTLE

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TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION / BEHAVIOR

forecasting how brand competition will evolve

CODES

SIGNIFIERS

PERSONAL

TRANSPARENT

CRAFT

PHYSICAL

SOCIAL

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new starbucks campaign is not about coffee

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trend forces: economicsthe economy shapes our perception and behavior

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trend forces: stockpiling and shopping the pantryperceptions of what we need gets rewired as conditions change

shopping the pantry 2009

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the signals?

what are the codes?

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

what are the signals?

what are the codes?

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes?

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes? shopping

the pantry

MICRO TRENDS

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes? shopping

the pantry

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

new normal

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trend forces impacting perception/behavior

2008

the great recession

deregulation

borrowed money

lack of credit

unemployment

HISTORICAL

aspirational culture

past present futurepatterns patterns

TREND FORCES

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

forecast scenarios

what are the signals?

what are the codes? shopping

the pantry

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

new normal

global unrest

post-industrial

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trend forces: government involvementgovernment impacts our sense of security and optimism

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

1960s

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

1960s

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

1960s

corn subsidies

food science

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

1960s

corn subsidies

food science

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

1960s

corn subsidies

food science

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

cheap food

MICRO TRENDS

1960s

corn subsidies

food science

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when you subsidize certain crops you get a resulting food narrativetrend forces: government regulation of agriculture

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

cheap food

MICRO TRENDS MACRO TRENDS

health crisis

1960s

corn subsidies

food science

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if you ate a school lunch growing up you participated in that narrativetrend forces: school lunch as trend index

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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility

1960s

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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility

1960s

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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trend forces: technology fuels mobility and growthour economy of the last 50 years has been shaped by car mobility

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trend forces: technology and the future of shoppingthe next 50 years will be shaped by a different kind of mobility

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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as technology becomes more fused with the bodycan advertising work in an intimate world?

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vinyl records as cultural counter measuremeaning is relative to the response to other cultural phenonemum

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trend forces: social shiftshow do the conditions of culture play out in the behavior of culture

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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: the rise of the new dadeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: changing family structureeconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: pets emerge as child surrogateseconomics and other forces reshape the american family

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trend forces: a generation of singleswhat factors are contributing to this trend? what are the implications?

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our dating has become an extension of other algorithmsthe future of relationships

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we are constantly testing the potential perils of our present state of being

Her (2014)

do we need other humans to be social?

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the evolution of the personal profile fueled by new technologywhat happens when we eliminate chance?

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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?case: nike japan

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how do trend forces impact the meaning of brands?can the brand evolve as trend conditions change?

past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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social context frames evolving expressionsocial dynamics are challenged by the unexpected events

bukatsufukushima

traditionmistrust

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the brand’s context in Japan

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country context shapes trend dynamics

http://geert-hofstede.com/japan.html

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creative analysis analysis of the existing narrative to see for where it can go next

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analytical expressive

coun

ter

collectiveIMPROVISATION

Downhill Biking

Skateboarding

SELF ACTUALIZATION

Yoga

Triathlon

RULES

Bukatsu Baseball

Bukatsu Soccer

Futsal

Sepak Takraw

TECHNIQUE

patterns

migration

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culture mapping the language and codes of sport in Japan

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OsakaTokyo

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ANALYTIC EXPRESSIVE

STATIC

PROGRESSIVE

Bukatsu Baseball

Bukatsu Lacrosse

Bukatsu Track &

Field

Bukatsu Cheerleading

Bukatsu Basketball

Bukatsu Soccer

Yoga

Triathlon

RULES TECHNIQUE

IMPROVISATIONSELF ACTUALIZATION

Downhill Biking

Skateboarding

Futsal

Casual Basketball

Casual Soccer

Sepak Takraw

structuring ethnography on cognitive frameworks

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futsalaware

versatile

obsessed

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study the signifiers of each scene

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outside affinities between sports and other activities

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planning how the brand will evolvethe future rests on how well the brand stays in sync with culture

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past present futurepatterns patterns

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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past present futurepatterns patterns

forecast scenarios

what are the codes?

what are the signals?

PERCEPTION/BEHAVIOR

TREND FORCES

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analyzing the creative potential of the brand

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focuswhat I share 

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semiotic coding reveals the two sides to the product and where to place emphasis

sensationwhat I feel   

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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empty celebrity endorsements as short cuts to cultural relevance

sensationwhat I feel   

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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the vodka category has become diluted with sweet me-too’s

sensationwhat I feel   

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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gen y gen x boomers silents

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perception analysis grouped by generationflavor and ads introduce Gen Y to vodka. Choice simplifies with age.

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poland1996

lvmh

rye

sweden1879

pernod ricard

wheat

france1997

bacardi

wheat

sweden1998

constellation

wheat

holland1983

diageo

wheat

usa1997

fifth generation

corn

latvia1901

spi

wheat & rye

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mapping rational and emotional perception of brandsperception analysis of packaging

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art-deco bottle

signature

speakeasy

Global

“triple distilled”

“premium”

“no. 21”

“purveyor to Russian court” pot still illustration

“small batch”

handcrafted

Holland

IMPORTED

1691, year distillery founded

vintage-style bottle

family crest

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unpacking the language in the packagedoes the reality of the vodka live up to its label?

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finding important synergies beyond the category

great stories live outside the category

focuswhat I share 

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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reclaiming unique brand attributesreclaiming the narrative around process

focuswhat I share 

LANGUAGE CODES CULTURE STORY

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creative reframing of the brandcreative tonality from outside the category

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vodka as it should be 2013 with Jason Silva

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launch in UK and Europe resulted in significant increase in sales

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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces

The Future of Work

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assignment: researching and analyzing trend forces

1.research 3 significant statistics on Pew

2.

email it to me on Canvas3.

write a brief 300 word forecast of the future of work based on this data

The Future of Work

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bring a laptop next week

For Next Week

check in on Tumblr

readings on Canvasemail me your assignment BEFORE class

check out Google Ngram https://books.google.com/ngrams