The Seven Deadly(ish) Sins of Marketing

Brian Voth | P. Ag, B.Sc. Agribusiness

VP Operations

AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach®

Twitter: @Brian_Voth

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Lust

Lust

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Gluttony

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Greed

2012

30 bu/ac canola

$15/bu

$450/ac gross

~$50/ac net profit

12.5% ROI

2013

50 bu/ac canola

$11/bu

$550/ac gross

~$100/ac net profit

22% ROI

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Sloth

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Wrath

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Envy

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Pride

Why?

What Can You Do?

- Deferred Contracts

- Basis Contracts

- Futures

- Options

- Futures First Contracts

2014: Please Fasten Your Seatbelt,

Continued Turbulence Expected

“Don’t worry about the future; or worry, but know that worrying is as effective as trying to solve an algebra equation by

chewing bubble gum.”

“Be careful whose advice you buy, but, be patient with those who supply it.”

– Mary Schmich

Canola

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Stats Can, Dec ‘13

Mercantile, Feb. ‘12

Thoughts on canola:

• Currently $431/mt on March futures

• Support at ~ $420/mt

• Resistance at ~ $450/mt

• Final Canadian production

• Brutal 2012, bountiful 2013

• Big crop, big demand

• 2013-14 carryout

• Logistics, logistics, logistics

• 2014

• Potential record acres (~22 mil)

• Big global demand but need to get to export

Twitter: @Brian_Voth

Wheat

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WASDE, Jan. ’14

Weekly Export Sales Jan 16th Weekly export sales are a direct correlation for the estimated yearly

export targets as reflected on an S&D

Helping farmers turn crops into profit.

Hightower Report, Mar. 8 ‘12

32 WASDE, Jan. ‘14

Stats Can, Dec ‘13

Thoughts on wheat:

• Currently $6.18/bu on March futures (Mpls)

• Support at ~ $6/bu

• Resistance at ~ $7/bu

• Exports out of Canada up 1.2 mmt from last year

• CWB

• Protein spreads

• Winter wheat/spring wheat spreads

• Quality wheat moving into feed markets

• Logistics, logistics, logistics

Twitter: @Brian_Voth

Profitability

Profit = Revenue – Expenses

= (Yield x Price) – Expenses

= (Yield x Price) – Operating Costs – Fixed Costs

Profitability

Brian Voth

AGRI-TREND Senior Market-Coach®

VP Operations

Cell 204-324-3669

Email bvoth@agritrend.com

Twitter: @Brian_Voth