The Presidential Selection Process?

New reading for Thursday

• E-Reserves

• Presidency Reading folder

• Bimes and Nichols, Debating the Presidency, Chapter 1

• Savage, “Bush challenges hundreds of laws”

A two-stage process

• Nomination– Primaries: really selecting delegates– National Nominating Conventions

• General Election

Democratic National Convention & Republican National Convention

• Delegates from each state meet to vote on which candidate will be the party’s nominee for President

All about Delegate Selection

• Presidential Primary:– A state-sponsored election to select delegates to

national nominating convention

• Caucus:– A meeting where any affiliated voter can come

and select individuals to serve as delegates in favor of a candidate

The Presidential nomination process

• The Invisible Primary: going on today!

• Competition for:– media “frontrunner” status– elite endorsements– money

Republican nomination 2000

• Bush’s money– April 1999: $6 million– July 1999: $36 million– December 1999: $70 million

• Closest competitor: McCain– July 1999: $6 million– December 1999: $15 million

& Endorsements…• Bush:

– Michigan Gov. John Engler (R)– Oklahoma Gov. Frank A. Keating– Fla. Gov. Jeb Bush (R)– Conn. Gov. John G. Rowland (R– Mass. Gov. Argeo Paul Cellucci – Colo. Gov. Bill Owens (R)– Idaho Gov. Dirk Kempthorne (R)– Montana Gov. Marc Racicot (R)– R.I. Gov. Lincoln C. Almond– La. Gov. M.J. "Mike" Foster (R)– Pa. Gov. Tom Ridge (R)– Kan. Gov. Bill Graves (R)– Virginia Gov. James S. Gilmore II– N.Y. Gov. George E. Pataki – Utah Gov. Mike Leavitt (R)– Wyo. Gov. Jim Geringer (R)– Wis. Gov. Tommy Thompson– Neb. Gov. Mike Johanns (R)– Nev. Gov. Kenny Guinn (R)– Ohio Gov. Robert A Taft II (R)– Ill. Gov. George H. Ryan (R)– Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)– Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)– Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)– Ariz. Gov. Jane Hull (R)– W.Va. Gov. Cecil H. Underwood– N.J. Gov. Christine Todd Whitman

• Alexander– Ark. Gov. Mike Huckabee (R)

– Iowa Gov. Terry E. Branstad (R)

– Tenn. Gov. Don Sundquist (R)

• Forbes– NM Governor Gary Johnson

• Hatch– UT Gov. Mike Levitt

• Quayle– Miss. Gov. Fordice

Nominations

• The Invisible Primary

• The Media’s Expectations Game

Nominations

• The Invisible Primary

• Expectations

• The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population 2,929,324

(30th)

1,235,786

(41st)

281,421,906

% White

Median income

% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White 93.9% 96% 75.1%

Median income

% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White

Median income

$39,469 $49,467 $41,994

% Farm employmt

A representative beginning?From the 2000 Census

Iowa New Hampshire

National average

Population

% White

Median income

% Farm employmt

4.4% .9% 1.9%

Nominations

• The Invisible Primary

• Expectations

• The importance of Iowa and New Hampshire

• Frontloading

Date 2004 PRIMARIES/caucuses 1996

Jan wk2 DC

Jan wk3 IA

Jan wk4 NH AK, HI

Feb wk1 AZ, DE, MO, SC, NM LA

Feb wk2 MI, WA, ME VA, TN, DC IA

Feb wk3 MI, ID NH

Feb wk4 DE, AZ, ND, SD

Mar wk1 CA, CT, GA, ME, MD, HI, MN, ND, MA, NY, OH, RI, VT

Any good things about New Hampshire and Iowa going first?

Any bad things about California going so early next year (feb. 5!)

The bandwagon effect

AP delegate totals, March 17, 2004(2,162 needed to win nomination)  

   Kerry: 2333

Edwards: 530 Dean: 156

    Clark: 73 Sharpton: 26

Kucinich: 22 Lieberman: 2 Gephardt: 2

National Party Nominating Conventions

• August of presidential election year

• Historically, delegates actually decided nominations

• Today, delegates (mostly) committed to candidates

General Election Rules

• FECA

Federal Election Campaign Act

• In general: Bans large donations by individuals– Individuals can only give $2000 to a candidate in the primary, and

$2000 in the general election

• Primary elections: creates a voluntary subsidy for candidates who enter primary elections– All funds candidates raise in small amounts ($250 or less) are

matched by the federal government on Jan 1 of election year

• General election: Public financing for presidential campaigns (with limits on campaign spending)

General Election Rules

• FECA

• The Electoral College

The Electoral College

• Each State shall appoint, in such Manner as the Legislature thereof may direct, a Number of Electors, equal to the whole Number of Senators and Representatives to which the State may be entitled in the Congress

Electoral College

• Each state gets number of electors equal to Reps + Senators

• Electors are NOT Reps or Senators themselves• Electors chosen by the parties + campaigns• Electors meet in own states• Cast two votes, one for president, one for vice president • Person with majority of electoral votes becomes president• If no majority, House of Representatives (one vote per

state delegation) selects president from among top three Electoral College vote-getters

Strategic Consequences of the Electoral College?

Strategic consequences of the Electoral College

• Candidates focus on big states with lots of Electoral Votes

• Candidates focus on swing states, where money and face time might make a difference

Sure things

• REPUBLICAN STATES:– AL: 9, AR: 3, AK: 6,

GA: 15, ID: 4, IN: 11, KS: 6, KY: 8, LA: 9, MS: 6, MT: 3, NE: 5, NC: 15, ND: 3, OK: 7, SC: 8, SD: 3, TX: 34, UT: 5, VA: 13, WY: 3.

– Total: 176

• DEMOCRATIC STATES– CA: 55, CT: 7, DE: 3,

DC: 3, HI: 4, IL: 21, ME: 4, MD: 10, MA: 12, NJ: 15, NY: 31, RI: 4, VT: 3

– Total: 169

The purple states• The West:

– Arizona: 10 EV, Colorado: 9 EV, Nevada: 5 EV, – New Mexico: 5 EV, Oregon: 7 EV, Washington: 11 EV

• The Midwest:– Minnesota: 10 EV, Iowa: 7 EV, Missouri: 11 EV, Ohio: 20

EV, Pennsylvania: 21 EV, Michigan 17 EV– Wisconsin: 10 EV,

• Border states: – Tennessee: 11 EV, West Virginia: 5 EV

• The South: Florida: 27 EV

• The North: New Hampshire: 4 EV

Targeted States, 2004State Visits Ads? Electoral

VotesDifference in two-party

percent of vote

OH 45 X 20 2.1%

IA 31 X 7 0.67%

PA 30 X 21 2.5%

WI 28 X 10 0.38%

FL 23 X 27 5.0%

MN 19 X 10 3.5%

MI 17 X 17 3.5%

NM 12 X 5 0.8%

WV 11 X 5 12.9%

CO 10 X 9 4.8%

NH 10 X 4 1.3%

MO 7 11 7.2%

NV 7 X 5 2.4%

NC 5 15 12.4%

The Electoral Calendar

• ELECTION DAY– By late evening, one candidate leads in the exit polls in

enough states to win 270 Electoral Votes, and the Media declares a winner.

– One candidate concedes the election, the other proclaims victory (usually)

The Electoral Calendar

• First Monday following First Wednesday in December: Electors meet in their state capitols and cast their formal votes for president

• January 6, 2009: The President of the Senate opens and counts the votes

• January 20, 2009: The newly elected (or re-elected) president is inaugurated

Some problems with the Electoral College?

• Faithless Electors?

• A small/big state advantage?

• The winner of the popular vote doesn’t always become president

What kinds of candidates are favored in this system?

Are they the kind we want?