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The Mekong

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The “ rice bowl ” of South East Asia!

Home to more than 20 M people!

Climate Change in the Mekong

• Salt intrusion, key to land use in VMD.

Subject to significant Salt Intrusion

The Mekong Deltaic System

2016

Climate Change in the Mekong

2015 for 2050

Kratie

My Thuan

Fresh water

inflow?

Tidal Signal

Within the

delta?

Ocean Forces?

Binh Dai

Hung My

• Salt intrusion

• Higher WL & city flooding

• Bank erosion

𝑻𝒊𝒅𝒂𝒍 𝒕𝒓𝒂𝒗𝒆𝒍 𝒔𝒑𝒆𝒆𝒅

= 𝒈 × 𝒅𝒆𝒑𝒕𝒉

On average:~2-3m deeper channels

Eslami et al. (2019)

Recently validated by

Vasilopoulos et al. (2020)

Examples of bed level changes

Eslami et al. (2019)

Climate Change in the Mekong

Environmental

5-10%

• Salt intrusion

• Higher tides

• City flooding

• Bank erosion

Integrated approach

Coastal - Inland

Upstream - Downstream

Surface water - Groundwater

Climate Change - Anthropogenic

Subsidence

Erosion

Upstream Discharge

Downstream SLR

DFlow-FM

numerical domain

3D Groundwater and Geological Modelling

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Source: Minderhoud et. al (2017)

3D Surface water modelling

Eslami et. al (in prep. 2020)

Environmental pathways

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Extent of salt intrusion in the delta

Eslami et al. (2021a & b)

“Projections of salt intrusion in a mega-delta under climatic and

anthropogenic stressors “, Nature Communications Earth & Env.

sepehr.eslamiarab@deltares.nl

@Sepehr_eslami