Post on 01-Sep-2018
The lost city
Autumn 2016
www.gateleyplc.com
A report by the House Builders Federation (HBF) claims
that a city the size of Nottingham ‘vanishes’ due to flawed
methodology in data collection over a four year period.
During the course of a Parliament, the Government
targets one million new homes; however the way that the
data is collected means that around a fifth of all new build
homes per year are missed from the statistics.
Why is this happening?
Whilst not tied to a particular data measure, the
Government typically sources its information from the
House Building Statistics released on a quarterly and
annual basis by the Department for Communities and
Local Government (DCLG). The data collected relates to
completions inspected by each local authority’s own
building control department. The latest figures (relating to
2014/15) indicated that 139,090 completions were made
that year; however the HBF stated that this figure failed to
account for around 30,000 homes, around one fifth of all
new build homes per year.
Analysis by the HBF advised that underreporting occurred
in 75% of local authority areas, with an average of 153
homes lost in each of those areas. Significant
underreporting was shown in cities such as:
• Birmingham (under reported by 67%);
• Liverpool (under reported by 63%); and
• Leicester (under reported by 60%).
What are the alternatives?
Interestingly, DCLG’s Net Supply of Housing data series,
which they themselves describe as ‘more comprehensive’,
is published annually in November and is calculated using
data from various sources including council tax records,
site surveys and the building control department (to
include dwellings inspected by the National House
Building Council and other approved building control
inspectors, in addition to its own building control
department).
For 2014/15, this showed 181,300 overall housing supply
for the same period by taking into account new build
completions (of which there were 155,080), plus
conversions, change of use to residential and other net
gains, less demolitions. This data is arguably more
suitable for the purpose of measuring the quota against
the Government target, and being calculated closer to the
point in time when local authorities determine the Council
Tax Base, provides a stronger incentive to accurately
record data. Otherwise, the Government issuance of
Energy Performance Certificates for new dwellings could
also provide current and accurate data with figures being
released each month. According to this source, there
were 198,189 new EPCs issued in the year to June.
Conclusions
The official data used by the Government is unsuitable for
measuring the progress towards tackling the housing
shortage. Undercounting the supply of homes to the
extent of a town the size of Stevenage per year
undermines the progress made towards tackling the
housing shortage significantly.
More accurately, house building figures are up 20% from
the previous year, therefore rising to meet the
Government's objectives. Unfortunately, however, the
repeated publishing of inaccurate figures results in undue
Government and industry criticism.