The lost city

Autumn 2016

www.gateleyplc.com

A report by the House Builders Federation (HBF) claims

that a city the size of Nottingham ‘vanishes’ due to flawed

methodology in data collection over a four year period.

During the course of a Parliament, the Government

targets one million new homes; however the way that the

data is collected means that around a fifth of all new build

homes per year are missed from the statistics.

Why is this happening?

Whilst not tied to a particular data measure, the

Government typically sources its information from the

House Building Statistics released on a quarterly and

annual basis by the Department for Communities and

Local Government (DCLG). The data collected relates to

completions inspected by each local authority’s own

building control department. The latest figures (relating to

2014/15) indicated that 139,090 completions were made

that year; however the HBF stated that this figure failed to

account for around 30,000 homes, around one fifth of all

new build homes per year.

Analysis by the HBF advised that underreporting occurred

in 75% of local authority areas, with an average of 153

homes lost in each of those areas. Significant

underreporting was shown in cities such as:

• Birmingham (under reported by 67%);

• Liverpool (under reported by 63%); and

• Leicester (under reported by 60%).

What are the alternatives?

Interestingly, DCLG’s Net Supply of Housing data series,

which they themselves describe as ‘more comprehensive’,

is published annually in November and is calculated using

data from various sources including council tax records,

site surveys and the building control department (to

include dwellings inspected by the National House

Building Council and other approved building control

inspectors, in addition to its own building control

department).

For 2014/15, this showed 181,300 overall housing supply

for the same period by taking into account new build

completions (of which there were 155,080), plus

conversions, change of use to residential and other net

gains, less demolitions. This data is arguably more

suitable for the purpose of measuring the quota against

the Government target, and being calculated closer to the

point in time when local authorities determine the Council

Tax Base, provides a stronger incentive to accurately

record data. Otherwise, the Government issuance of

Energy Performance Certificates for new dwellings could

also provide current and accurate data with figures being

released each month. According to this source, there

were 198,189 new EPCs issued in the year to June.

Conclusions

The official data used by the Government is unsuitable for

measuring the progress towards tackling the housing

shortage. Undercounting the supply of homes to the

extent of a town the size of Stevenage per year

undermines the progress made towards tackling the

housing shortage significantly.

More accurately, house building figures are up 20% from

the previous year, therefore rising to meet the

Government's objectives. Unfortunately, however, the

repeated publishing of inaccurate figures results in undue

Government and industry criticism.

The lost city

www.gateleyplc.com

If you would like to discuss any of the issues raised in this

update, please contact:

Katie Rogers Trainee Solicitor RDU dt: +44 (0) 121 212 7843 Katie.Rogers@gateleyplc.com