Post on 16-Apr-2017
Eric Radtke & Bret Koebbe!
Go / No-goRealtime decision making for pilots
Sportys Academy
Eric Radtke
President & Chief Pilot! Sportys Academy
ATP & Master CFI!Sportys Pilot Shop! Editor!
Student Pilot News
Go / No-go: Real-time decision making for pilots
Bret Koebbe
ATP / CFI / Vice President! Sportys Academy
App / video producer! Sportys Pilot Shop
Editor! iPad Pilot News
Go / No-go: Real-time decision making for pilots
studentpilotnews.comairfactsjournal.com
Additional resourcesSit back, relax and learn!!
- Go/No-go articles - Real-world tips - Free Newsletters
Preflight Planning!
Electronic ResourcesPreflight Planning!
Aviation Weather Centeraviationweather.gov
iPad/Android AppsForeFlight, Garmin, WingX Pro
Electronic ResourcesPreflight Planning!
Lockheed Martin FSS1800wxbrief.com
Online Web ServicesFltplan.com, pilotbrief.com (WSI)
Weather BriefingPreflight Planning!
Big PictureSurface Analysis
Prog ChartsRadar/Satellite
DetailsMETARs, PIREPs,
TAFs
Weather BriefingPreflight Planning!
Preflight requirements!- 91.103 all information concerning the flight
- Runway lengths, performance- IFR & away from the vicinity of the airport
- Weather, fuel, alternatives
There is no Official Weather Briefing!
Weather BriefingPreflight Planning!
ConvectionRadar, Convective Outlook,
Convective Forecast, SIGMETs, PIREPs
TurbulenceClear Air & Mountain Wave forecasts, AIRMETs, PIREPs
IcingFreezing Level chart, Icing Probability Analysis, Icing
Severity, AIRMETs, PIREPs
Weather BriefingPreflight Planning!
IFR Alternate Requirements!- Filed alternate vs. whats practical- Alternate airport -> GPS approach
considerations!
Facilities BriefingPreflight Planning!
Importance of the A/FD in the age of appsContains critical information not found in
other resources
Facilities BriefingPreflight Planning!
Do your research:- Review airport diagram- Satellite aerial imagery- Fuel options- Maintenance- Airport lighting systems & control
Call ahead to airport or!FBO with questions!
NOTAMs 2 TypesPreflight Planning!
D NOTAMs FDC NOTAMs
Route ConsiderationPreflight Planning!
Things to consider:- Terrain- Airspace- TFRs- Traffic Flow- Weather- Aircraft capabilities- Contingencies
Altitude Selection- Direction of Flight- Minimum altitudes (91.119 500 at all times)- Off-route minimum obstruction altitudes
Aircraft ConsiderationsPreflight Planning!
Inoperative Equipment!- MEL vs. Required Equipment List- Is it safe and have appropriate steps been
taken for deferrals?!Required Inspections!!Oxygen Use!- 12,500/14,000/15,000- Best-practice 5,000 Night, 10,000 Day- Pressurized? Need 10 min supply > FL250
Physiological ConsiderationsPreflight Planning!
Medical Certification! IMSAFE- Illness- Medication- Stress- Alcohol (+passenger considerations)- Fatigue- Eating
Pilot ProficiencyPreflight Planning!
Am I current? Regulatory vs. Prudence!- Flight Review- Day/Night landingsIFR Currency!- 6 approaches, nav tracking, holding w/in 6 months- IPC- Use FTD or ATD to maintain currency (61.57)!
(
Pilot ProficiencyPreflight Planning!
Night Flying!- Equipment requirements- Cockpit organization- Proficiency!
Putting it all togetherPreflight Planning!
Pilot Factors!IMSAFEDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency
Flight Planning Factors!Airport/runway suitabilityRoutingNOTAMs/TFRs
Weather Factors!Terminal airport weatherEn Route hazards (thunderstorms/turbulence/icing)
Equipment Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenanceCharts/EFB/Gear
California VFR Flight!Scenario #1
Santa Barbara, CA (KSBA)!
toSan Diego!
Montgomery Field!(KMYF)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
California VFR Flight Cessna 182AIRPLANE
Cessna 182 SkylaneGarmin G1000
AutopilotXM Datalink Weather
iPad/ForeFlight
PILOT PROFILE
Private PilotInstrument Rating (not current)Night current (for pax carrying)
Business owner / trip700 hours in the C182
1 passenger (business associate)
KSBA -> KMYFDeparture time 0030Z
(4:30pm local)
Time en route 1.1 hrsSunset is 0145Z
FLIGHT
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
Santa Barbara (KSBA)!Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)
San Diego Montgomery Field (KMYF)!Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)!
Airport Considerations
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
Direct isnt always best; flight over water considerations!
Route Considerations
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
Route goes through Los Angeles Class B airspace!
Airspace Considerations
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
ForeFlight -> Documents -> FAA -> FLY Charts!
Airspace Considerations
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Airspace Considerations
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
Valid 0000Z! Valid 0600Z!
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Weather Briefing (0030Z departure)
California VFR Flight Cessna 182
Proposed Departure: 0030Z!Time en route: 1:06 hours!Proposed Arrival: 0136Z!
Fuel Requirements
Considerations:!
Sunset is 0145ZWeather deviationsATC/Traffic routing/delaysFAR: land with 30 minutes DAY, 45 minutes NIGHTFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves
Smart Fuel: 1:06 + 1:00 reserves = 2:06
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Pilot Considerations
Pilot Variables:!
- Recovering from a head cold- Taking Tylenol Cold (Rule of 5)- Work Pressures to make the trip- Doesnt sleep well in hotels
How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- FAA-Approved Medications
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Aircraft Considerations
Inoperative Equipment:!
Navigation Lights
How do this affect your decision?!!Required for operations from sunset to sunriseIncreased pressure to land before sunset
Proposed arrival time is 9 minutes before sunset
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Time to make a decision
Pilot Factors!HealthDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency
Airplane Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenance
Weather Factors!VFR CeilingVFR VisibilityThunderstorms/icing/turbulence/winds
!!
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Time to make a decision
What are my outs?
1) Wait until the morning (good VFR weather forecast)
2) Depart as planned, be prepared to land at an alternate if weather deteriorates
3) If you get caught in IFR weather, you have the skills to fly an approach to get safely on the ground (though this wouldnt be legal)
4) If delays push you towards a sunset landing, diversion possible (inop nav lights)!
California VFR Flight Cessna 182Howd the flight go?
Importance of! Passenger Briefing!
!Weather Variables!- Ceilings and visibility good for departure- Visibility as low as 3 SM and 1,400 ceilings,
moderate rain showers- Thunderstorms/turbulence/icing not a factor- VFR over the top is an option (not VFR ON TOP)
Passenger needs to make phone call en route!Is this legal?!
Fall IFR Flight!Scenario #2
Rochester, NY (KROC)!to
Columbus, OH (KOSU)
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
AIRPLANE
Cirrus SR-22Avidyne GPS/Moving-Map
AutopilotiPad/ForeFlight
PILOT PROFILE
Private PilotInstrument Rating
Night current Business trip
200 hours in the SR-22600 hours total (70 in last 6 months)
KROC -> KOSUDeparture time 2330Z
(6:30pm local)
Time en route 2.0 hrsSunset is 0000Z
FLIGHT
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Rochester (KROC)!Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Control Tower
Columbus, OH (KOSU)!Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Control Tower
!
Airport ConsiderationsFall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Weather Briefing (2330Z Departure)Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Flight Planning ConsiderationsFall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Route Selection!- Airspace consideration- Terrain/Min IFR Altitudes- Weather/Ice!
Flight Planning Considerations
Additional Factors!- Night- Survivability- Potential radar coverage issues (ice)- IFR position reporting!
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Route/Altitude Selection
Minimum En Route Altitude(MEA) 3,000 MSL
Off Route Obstruction ClearanceAltitude (OROCA) 3,500 MSL
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Route/Altitude Selection
Minimum Obstruction Clearance Altitude(MOCA) 2,100 MSL
does not guarantee radar coverageor radio reception (beyond 22 NM of the VOR)
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Route/Altitude Selection
MEA 2,800 3,000 MSLStart off on airways
OROCA 3,500 MSLProceed direct
Minimum IFR Altitude!4,000 MSL!
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Fuel Planning
IFR Night Flight!
Alternate Required?!
- P6SM & Clouds Broken 2,400- Alternate required: 1 hour beforeto 1 hour after ETA, Ceiling < 2,000and Visibility < 3 SM
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Fuel Planning
Proposed Departure: 2330Z!Time en route: 2:00 hours!Proposed Arrival: 0130Z!
Considerations:!
Sunset is 0000ZWeather deviations and/or diversionFAR: fly to destination, then to alternate and land with 45 minutes fuelFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves
Smart Fuel: 2:00 + 1:15 reserves = 3:15
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Pilot Considerations
Pilot Variables:!
- Up early in the morning - Long day of meetings- Critical business decisions- Commitments early next morning
How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- Fatigue affects night vision & decision making
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Time to make a decision
Pilot Factors!Health/fatigueDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency
Airplane Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenance
Weather Factors!Destination ceiling/visibility for approachThunderstorms/turbulence Icing!
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Time to make a decision
What are my outs?
Wait until the morning (Cold front and low pressure move out of area)
Depart as planned, be prepared fly at MEA if ice becomes a factor at higher altitudes
If weather gets convective or you pick up in-flight ice, request routing to the south
!!
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
Howd the flight go?
Weather Variables- Moderate turbulence (unforecast)- ATC Emergency (ice)
ATC/Navigation Variables - Out of radar contact when amended
routing becomes necessary - Loss of Comm at low altitudes - ATC Emergency (weather)
Fall IFR Flight Cirrus SR-22
New England VFR Flight!Scenario #3
Burke Lakefront!Cleveland, OH (KBKL)!
toClaremont, NH (KCNH)
New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
PILOT PROFILE
Private Pilot!
No Instrument Rating Night current (for pax carrying)
Family Trip500 hours in the A363 passengers (family)
AIRPLANE
Bonanza A36!
GPS-equippedAutopilot
ADS-B In Weather (iPad)
KBKL-> KCNH!
Departure time 0200Z(9:00pm local)
Time en route 2.5 hrsSunset is 2300Z
FLIGHT
Burke Lakefront (KBKL)!Long Runway
Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Tower
Claremont Municipal (KCNH)!3,100 Runway
Non-precision instrument approachNon-towered
!
Airport ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Review A/FD for Destination!Rwy 11 Threshold displace 1,055Self-service fuel informationExpect downdraft appch to Rwy 29Rotating beacon difficult to see from
the northACTIVATE MIRL Rwy 11-29 and REIL
Rwy 29-CTAFFSS RCO Frequency
Airport ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
NOTAMS for Departure Airport!Upcoming Race on the runways
Runway 6R/24L CLOSEDRunway 24R reduced to 2,500 usable
How does this affect performance planning and W&B?
Airport ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Route ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Route Selection!- Winter flying- Survivability- Cold weather gear (off-airport ldg.)
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
KBKL 152353Z 16006KT 10SM OVC100 06/M02 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP224 T00561017 10072 20050 53002 KBKL 160053Z 14005KT 10SM SCT095 05/M02 A3017 RMK AO2 SLP220 T00501017 KBKL 160153Z 15010G16KT 10SM OVC085 05/M01 A3015 RMK AO2 SLP215 T00501011
Departure METAR
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
KCLE 152339Z 1600/1706 17006KT P6SM SCT050 OVC080 TEMPO 1602/1605 4SM -RA SCT025 OVC035 FM160500 16008KT 5SM -RA BR SCT025 OVC035 FM160900 16008KT 4SM -RA BR SCT015 OVC025 TEMPO 1612/1616 1 1/2SM -RA BR SCT006 OVC012 FM161800 25010KT P6SM OVC025 FM162100 26010KT P6SM OVC035
Departure TAF
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
KBUF 160254Z 13006KT 10SM FEW100 SCT250 M01/M04 A3020 RMK AO2 SLP237 T10111044 55009
KALB 160251Z 27005KT 10SM OVC036 02/M02 A3029 RMK AO2 SLP259 T00221017 51008
En Route METARs
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
KLEB 160153Z 00000KT 10SM BKN027 OVC038 02/M02 A3021 RMK AO2 SLP239 T00171022
KVSF 160154Z AUTO 28003KT 10SM FEW026 SCT034 OVC041 03/M02 A3023 RMK AO2 SLP243 T00331017
METARs near destination
Weather Briefing (0200Z Departure)New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
KALB 152326Z 1600/1624 00000KT P6SM FEW040 FEW090
FM160600 00000KT P6SM SCT110 SCT250
FM161200 VRB03KT P6SM BKN110 OVC200
FM161800 17004KT 4SM -RA BR SCT020 BKN035 OVC070
Closest TAF (70 NM southwest)
Fuel RequirementsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Proposed Departure: 0200Z!Time en route: 2:30 hours!Proposed Arrival: 0430Z!
Considerations:!
Sunset is 2300ZFAR: land with 30 minutes DAY, 45 minutes NIGHTFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves (may need to travel further East if ceilings drop)
Smart Fuel: 2:30 + 1:15 reserves = 3:45
Pilot ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Pilot Variables:!
- Family pressures to get to vacation- Several drinks the night before- Former smoker- Commitments early next morning
How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- External habits affects night vision & decision making
Aircraft ConsiderationsNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Intermittent Oil Pressure Warning Light!
Forgot to charge iPad (primary charts)!No backup & no charging source
Navigation Lights!Operating Requirements
Time to make a decisionNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Pilot Factors!Health/fatigueDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency
Airplane Factors!PerformanceWeight & BalanceFuelMaintenance
Weather Factors!Departure Clouds/CeilingArrival Clouds/CeilingWX Hazards (thunderstorms/turbulence/icing)!
Time to make a decisionNew England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
What are my outs?
1) Wait until the morning (good VFR weather forecast)
2) Depart as planned, be prepared to descend to lower altitude if ceilings lower
3) If ADS-B METAR updates indicated low ceilings while en route, divert to the east where good VFR weather is in the forecast (fuel considerations?)
Howd the flight go?New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
Weather Encountered- Mist in Cleveland at departure reduces visibility
for Takeoff to 2 miles Special VFR?- Keep up with METAR reports near destination
with ADS-B datalink weather on the iPad
- Inadvertent flight into IMC nearing destination
Importance of!Passenger Briefing!
Howd the flight go?New England VFR Flight Bonanza A36
En Route Decision Making- Oxygen use at 9,500 (Night flight)
- Disposable BOOST canisters- Oil Pressure warning on descent to destination
- Checklist? Procedure?
- Runway light activation for landing- Landing light inop- Black hole effect during landing- Displaced threshold Rwy 11
Texas IFR Flight!Scenario #4
Shreveport, LA (KDTN)!to
Amarillo, TX (KAMA)
Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
PILOT PROFILE
Commercial Pilot!
Instrument Rating (current) Night current Business Trip
3,000 hours in the AztecCo-pilot: CFI in need of twin time
AIRPLANE
Piper Aztec!
Dual WAAS GPSAutopilot
iPad/ADS-B WX
Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
KSHV -> KAMA!
Departure time 2050Z(3:50pm local)
Time en route 2.5 hrsSunset is 0100Z
FLIGHT
Shreveport (KDTN)!Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Control Tower
Amarillo (KAMA)Long Runways
Instrument Approaches (ILS)ATC Control Tower
Airport ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
MOAs along the route!Could present a challenge if a course deviation is required for weather
Airspace ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Convective Forecast Planning! Convective Outlook!
These are examples of forecasts (not to be used for the Texas IFR scenario)
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Briefing (2050Z departure)Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Fuel RequirementsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Proposed Departure: 2050Z!Time en route: 2:30 hours!Proposed Arrival: 2320Z!
Considerations:!
FAR: land with 30 minutes DAYFAR Min Fuel vs. Extra reserves (potential thunderstorm deviations or diversion)
Smart Fuel: 2:30 + 1:00 reserves = 3:30
Pilot ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Pilot Variables:!
- Well-rested and no external distractions- Experienced CFI on-board, reduced pilot workload
How do these affect your decision?!!- IMSAFE Checklist- Full decision-making capacities dedicated to the flight- Can 2 pilots talk each other into taking unnecessary risk?- Who is PIC and makes the ultimate decision?
(
Aircraft ConsiderationsTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
ADS-B Datalink Weather!5 10 minute delay, no close WX flying
! De-ice boots placarded inoperative
Time to make a decisionTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Pilot Factors!Health/fatigueDay currencyNight currencyIFR CurrencyTrip urgency
Airplane Factors!Weight & BalanceFuelMaintenance
Weather Factors!Destination ceiling/visibility for approachThunderstorms/turbulence Icing!
Time to make a decisionTexas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
What are my outs?
1) Wait until the morning (warm front moves out of the area)
2) Depart as planned, use all resources to find a route through the convective weather
3) Depart as planned, divert before crossing the line if no holes are available
Howd the flight go?Texas IFR Flight Piper Aztec
Weather Encountered- Moderate turbulence along front- Datalink WX shows line filling in, no holes- Divert to North Texas Regional Airport, wait it out
Importance of!2-pilot Crew Briefing!
Eric Radtke & Bret Koebbe!
Go / No-goRealtime decision making for pilots
Sportys Academy