Post on 17-Feb-2017
THE GLOBAL DISASTER LABORATORY MODEL:
AN INTEGRATED FRAMEWORK FOR GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE
FRAMEWORK FORA COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-
DISCIPLINARY DIALOGUE ON GLOBAL DISASTERS
AND DISASTER RESILIENCE
1. SCOPEFROM VULNERABLE CONTINUUMS
TO A DISASTER TO
DISASTER RESILIENT COMMUNITIES THROUGH IMPLEMENTATION OF“THE BEST POLICIES AND BEST
PRACTICES” OF DISASTER RESILIENCE
A DISASTER is --- --- the set of failures that occur when the continuums of: 1) people, 2) community (i.e., a set of habitats, livelihoods, and social constructs), and 3) recurring events (e.g., floods, earthquakes, ...,) intersect at a point in space and time, when and where the people and community are not ready.
THREE DYNAMIC CONTINUUMS
1. PEOPLE (7+ Billion and counting)
2. COMMUNITIES3. RECURRING EVENTS (AKA
Natural Hazards, which are proof of a DYNAMIC EARTH)
PEOPLE = INNOVATION
200 NATIONS AND 7+
BILLION PEOPLE
NORTH AMERICA
CARIBBEAN BASIN
SUB-SAHARAAFRICA
MEDITER-RANEAN
ISLAND NATIONS
ASIA
SOUTHAMERICA
EUROPE
INTERSECTION OF THESE CONTINUUMS IS INEVITABLE
SOME INTERSECTIONS WILL CAUSE A DISASTER, AND SOME WON’T
THE PEOPLE CONTINUUM
• 7 + BILLION (DISTRIBUTED THROUGHOUT THE WORLD)
LIKE AN INFINITE SERIES: A CONTINUUM OF INNOVATION NEVER ENDS
LIKE A CHAIN: A CONTINUUM HAS WEAK LINKS TO IMPROVE
FOUR UNIVERSAL WEAK-LINKS
1. IGNORANCE2. APATHY3. DISCIPLINARY BOUNDARIES4. LACK OF POLITICAL WILL
THE COMMUNITY CONTINUUM: (SOCIAL CONSTRUCTS TO BENEFIT THE PEOPLE)
• GOVERNMENT• DWELLINGS• SCHOOLS• HEALTH CARE
FACILITIES• BUSINESSES• INFRA-
STRUCTURE• ETC.
EACH COMMUNITY MUST BE READY FOR THE INEVITABLE
INTERSECTION THAT WILL CHALLENGE ITS STATE-OF-RESILIENCE
THE RECURRING - EVENTS CONTINUUM
• FLOODS• SEVERE
WINDSTORMS• EARTHQUAKES• DROUGHTS• VOLCANIC
ERUPTIONS• ETC.
RECURRING EARTHQUAKES
RECURRING TROPICAL STORMS TYPHOONS, HURRICANES, AND CYCLONES
RECURRING FLOODS
RECURRING DROUGHT EPISODES
RECURRING VOLCANIC ERUPTIONS
CURRENT KNOWLEDGE
IS DEFINED BY ANECTDOTAL, EMPIRICAL, LINEAR, NON-LINEAR,
STATISTICAL, FUZZY, PROBABILISTIC, . . . AND THEORETICAL MODELS
HAVING DIVIDES, GAPS, AND UNCERTAINTIES
FRAMEWORK 2:A COMPREHENSIVE, INTER-DISCIPLINARY INTEGRATION
OF KNOWLEDGE FORTHE END GAME OF
DISASTER RESILIENCE IN THE 21ST CENTURY
POLICIES AND PRACTICES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• Anticipatory Preparedness• Adoption and Implementation of a Modern
Engineering Building Codes & Standards • Timely Early Warning and Evacuation• Timely Emergency Response (including
Emergency Medical Services)• Cost-Effective Recovery/Reconstruction
YOUR COMMUNITYDATA BASES
AND INFORMATION
HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS
• FLOODS • SEVERE WIND
STORMS• EARTHQUAKES …
ETC
A DISASTER
CAUSESFAILURES IN POLICIES
FAILURES IN PRACTICES
COUNTER MEASURES
• BEST POLICIES• BEST PRACTICES
DISASTER RESILIENCE
EARTHQUAKES
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR EARTHQUAKE RESILIENCE
• MEASURMENT TECHNOLOGIES (E.G., GROUND SHAKING; STRAIN)
• INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY (E.G., GIS)
• RISK MODELING (E.G., HAZUS, INSURANCE UNDERWRITING)
• DATABASES • DISASTER
SCENARIOS• ZONATION OF
POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS AS A TOOL FOR POLICY DECISIONS
EMERGING TECHNOLOGIES FOR DISASTER RESILIENCE
• AUTOMATED CONSTRUCTION EQUIPMEMT
• PREFABRICATION AND MODULARIZATION
• ADVANCED MATERIALS (E.G., COMPOSITES)
• COMPUTER AIDED DESIGN
• PERFORMANCE BASED CODES AND STANDARDS
• ACTIVE AND PASSIVE ENERGY DISSIPATION DEVICES (E.G., BASE ISOLATION)
• REAL-TIME MONITORING AND WARNING SYSTEMS
INNOVATIVE PREPAREDNESS
USE GLOBAL EARTHQUAKE DISASTER LABORATORIES AS A
BASIS FOR PREPARING FROM “A” (Emergency Response) TO “Z” (Recovery and Reconstruction)
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE
• M7.1• 63 DEAD• COLLAPSE AND LOSS
OF FUNCTION OF KEY TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE
• $ 1 BILLION INSURED LOSS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1972 MANAGUA, NICARAGUA EARTHQUAKE)
• 10,000 DEAD• 20,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• NEAR TOTAL
DISRUPTION OF THE INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
• LOSS OF CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE
• POLITICAL CHAOS
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (MEXICO)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (EGYPT)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (ALGERIA)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (TURKEY)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (IRAN)
PROBABILISTIC FORECASTS OF GROUND SHAKING (INDIA)
PROTECTION
USE FORECASTS OF STRONG GROUND MOTION TO ENACT CODES AND FIX
PHYSICAL VULNERABILITIES IN THE COMMUNITY
PROTECTION BASED ON RESEARCH FROM THE JANUARY 2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE
• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
PROTECTION (BASED ON JULY 2013 YA’AN CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SEISMIC BUILDING CODES PREVENT BUILDING COLLAPSE.
PROTECTIONBASED ON 1995 KOBE JAPAN
EARTHQUAKE
• SEISMIC STANDARDS PREVENT LOSS OF FUNCTION OF CRITICAL LIFELINE SYSTEMS.
PROTECTION
• URBAN PLANNING FACILITATES AVOIDANCE OF HAZARDOUS LOCATIONS SUCH AS FAULT ZONES FOR CONSTRUCT-ION SITES
PROTECTION (SITE MODIFICATION Based on 1964 Niigata Earthquake)
• ENGINEERING TECHNIQUES (SOIL REMED-IATION) CAN PREVENT/REDUCE LOSSES FROM LIQUEFACTION
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1989 LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• Magnitude 7.1• 63 DEAD• FIRE IN MARINA
DISTRICT • WIDE SPREAD LOSS
OF POWER • 1 BILLION INSURED
LOSS
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1995 KOBE EARTHQUAKE)
• SEARCH AND RESCUE AFTER THE 5:46 AM EARTHQUAKE HELPED SAVE 3,000 ADULTS AGE 60 OR OLDER TRAPPED IN HOUSES.
SEARCH AND RESCUE (BASED ON 1988 SPITAK, ARMENIA EARTHQUAKE)
• INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE FROM MORE THAN 50 CONTRIES FACILITATED SEARCH AND RESCUE OPERATIONS
SEARCH AND RESCUE: L’AQUILLA EARTHQUAKE APRIL 6, 2009
EMERGENCY RESPONSE: (BASED ON 1971 SAN FERNANDO, CA EARTHQUAKE)
• LOWERING THE WATER LEVEL IMMEDIATELY AFTER THE EARTHQUAKE PREVENTED FLOODING OF LOS ANGELES.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCALEI, TURKEY EARTHQUAKE)
• MASS CARE PROVIDED A SAFETY NET FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE AND EARLY RECOVERY PERIODS.
EMERGENCY RESPONSE (BASED ON 1999 KOCAELI, TURKEY, EARTHQUAKE)
• A “TENT CITY” PROVIDED TEMPORARY SHELTER FOR THE HOMELESS DURING THE EMERGENCY RESPONSE EARLY RECOVERY PERIOD
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• 88,000 DEAD• 30,000 INJURED• 300,000 HOMELESS• 25 MILLION
BUILDINGS DAMAGED• 45 MILLION PEOPLE
AFFECTED
EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE IS A TOOL FOR RECOVERY
• EARTHQUAKE INSURANCE SPREADS THE RISK AND SPEEDS RECOVERY (I.E., “RESTORATION TO NORMAL”)
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE SPEEDS RECOVERY (2010 HAITI EARTHQUAKE)
• OVER $ 1 BILLION DOLLARS WAS DONATED IN A FEW WEEKS TO HELP HAITIANS SPEED RESTORATION OF SERVICES TO NORMAL.
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.
RECOVERY AND RECONSTRUCTION: (BASED ON MAY 12, 2008 CHINA EARTHQUAKE)
• SCHOOLS ARE “SAFE HAVENS” SO ANY NEEDING TO BE REBUILT MUST BE REBUILT TO A HIGHER STANDARD DURING THE RECONSTRUCTION PERIOD.
THE END GAME CHALLENGEBEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
INNOVATIVE ACTIONS:
CREATE, ADJUST, AND REALIGN PROGRAMS, PARTNERS AND PEOPLE UNTIL YOU HAVE CREATED THE PARA-DIGM SHIFTS THAT ARE NEEDED FOR MOVING TOWARDS DISASTER RESILIENCE
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES
WILL IDENTIFY/CLOSE KNOWLEDGE DIVIDES AND GAPS,
AND IDENTIFY/FIX WEAK LINKS IN THE
PEOPLE/COMMUNITY CONTINUUMS
BEST POLICIES AND BEST PRACTICES WILL
CALL FOR INNOVATIVE USE OF TECHNOLOGY
AND STRATEGIC PLANNING
THE STATE-OF-RESILIENCE WILL INCREASE EXPONENTIALLY AS ---
a) The CAPACITY of the PEOPLE is increased,
b) Physical and organizational VULNERABILITIES in the COMMUNITY are eliminated, and
c) Each people-community-hazard INTERSECTION is met successfully.