Post on 15-Jan-2016
description
The Future of Washington Forests and
Forest IndustriesStand Management Cooperative April 26, 2007
Larry Mason, Rural Technology Initiative
The Future of Washington’s Forests
and Forest Industries
Commissioned by the WA State Legislature 2005
Study Areas Include:
1) Timber Supply and Forest Structure Study 1
2) Competitive Position Study 2
3) Economic Contribution Study 3
4) Land Conversion Study 4
5) State Granted Return on Investment Study 5
PROGRESS REPORTS
http://www.dnr.wa.gov/
Bolsinger, C. L., N. McKay, D. R. Gedney, and C. Alerich. 1997. Washington's Public and Private Forests. Resource Bulletin PNW-RB-218, USDA Forest Service, Pacific Northwest Research Station.
*USDI Bureau of Indian Affairs. 2004. 2004 Status of Forest Management Inventories and Planning. USDI, Bureau of Indian Affairs, Division of Forestry, Branch of Forest Resource Planning.
Washington Unreserved Timberlands (thousands of acres)
Ownership Western Eastern TotalUSDA Forest Service 2208 2494 4702Forest Industry 3732 878 4610Non-Industrial *1668 1292 2960State 1390 647 2037Native American *310 1074 1384County and Municiple 194 7 201Misc. Federal 78 110 188Total 9580 6502 160827029 3959 10988
3,389 829 4218? ?
Less Roads, Buffers, Etc. 5800 3600 ~9400
North Coast
South Coast
South West
North Puget Sound
South Puget Sound
Central
Inland Empire
Washington Timbersheds: Five Westside and Two Eastside
Westside Forest Types
• Management Intensities• Harvest Implications• Land Conversions
Western Washington Harvest Volumes 1990 - 2002
W estern W ashington Share of Timberland Ownership and Harvest Volume 1990
Total Harvest Volume = 4,646 MMBF
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Native American Forest Industry Private Small State National Forest
Percent of Acreage Percent of Harvest Volume
W estern W ashington Share of Timberland Ownership and Harvest Volume 2002
Total Harvest Volume = 2,667 MMBF
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Native American Forest Industry Private Small State National Forest
Percent of Acreage Percent of Harvest Volume
Year Ownership Type – Volumes in Million Board Feet
Native American
Forest Industry
Private Small
State National Forest
Total
1990 37.6 2,974.0 557.7 573.1 504.0 4,646.3
2002 26.8 1,937.0 296.8 397.8 8.3 2,666.9
Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002
Western Washington Private Forest Age Class Distribution
0
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,000
800,000
900,000
0-9 10-19 20-29 30-39 40-49 50+
Te n Ye ar Age Class
Ac
res
Industry Small Private Tribes
Western Washington Industrial Forestlands by T imbershed
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
North Coast South Coast North PugetSound
South PugetSound
Southwest
Acr
es
%
1)
What percentage of industrial forestland in western Washington would you estimate is covered by roads, rock, wetlands, water, and other areas not capable of growing timber?
8.2%
2)
What percentage of industrial forestland in western Washington is unavailable for management because of voluntary reserves?
0.4%
3)
What percentage of industrial forestland in western Washington is unavailable for management because of regulatory constraints?
9.5%
Total 18.1%
n =16; respondents are western WA WFPA member companies ≥ 10,000 acres of forestlands. Total 3.6 MM acres.
Land Allocation Questions - Weighted Average for Industrial Respondents
Western Washington Industrial Management Intensity Forecast Comparison 1990-2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Natl Regen Plant Herb Fert Gen all PCT all CT PCT/CT No Mgmt
Treatment
Per
cen
t
1990 Forecast 2006 Forecast
2006 Western Washington Timber Harvest by Species Reported by Contract Loggers
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
DF W H RA BC W P RC GF BM
Species
Per
cent
Regeneration Harvest 65%
Selective Cut/Commercial Thin 35%
W estern W ashington Nursery Planting Stock by Species 1998-2006
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
Year
Pe
rce
nt
of
To
tal S
ee
dlin
gs
DF WH SS RC GF NF RA
Average Annual Available Timber Volumes: Industry Forests Historic Harvest Volumes (5-Yr) and Projected Inventory (10-Yr)
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1965-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1999
1999-2003
2004-2013
2014-2023
2024-2033
2034-2043
2044-2053
2054-2063
Harvest Interval
Mil
lio
n B
oar
d F
eet Historic Projected
Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002, FIA age-class data, UW/WFPA Management intensities Survey, Chambers 1980 DNR RPT 41.
Average Annual Available Timber Volumes: Industry Forests Historic Harvest Volumes (5-Yr) and Projected Inventory (10-Yr)
w&wo Industry Conversions
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
1965-1968
1969-1973
1974-1978
1979-1983
1984-1988
1989-1993
1994-1999
1999-2003
2004-2013
2014-2023
2024-2033
2034-2043
2044-2053
2054-2063
Harvest Interval
Mil
lio
n B
oar
d F
eet
Industry Ind w/Conversion
Source: Gray et al. 2005. PNW-RB-246
Historic Projected
West Side Question:
This or This?
Eastside Forest Types
Ponderosa Pine, 33%
Lodgepole Pine, 7%
Other Softwoods, 10%Hardwoods, 5%
Douglas-fir/W estern Larch, 46%
• Forest health & climate change• Fire/carbon/bioenergy• Mill Closures
Eastern Washington Harvest Volumes 1990 - 2002
Year Ownership Type – Volumes in Million Board Feet
Native American
Forest Industry
Private Small
State National Forest
Total
1990 144.7 462.7 152.5 84.2 313.3 1.157.4
2002 292.3 334.6 112.8 58.7 64.0 862.4
Source: DNR Timber Harvest Report 2002
Eastern Washington Share of Timberland Ownership and Harvest Volume 1990
Total Harvest Volume = 1,157 MMBF
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Native American Forest Industry Private Small State National Forest
Percent of Acreage Percent of Harvest Volume
Eastern Washington Share of Timberland Ownership and Harvest Volume 2002
Total harvest Volume = 862 MMBF
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
Native American Forest Industry Private Small State National Forest
Percent of Acreage Percent of Harvest Volume
Past Harvest & Future Available Timber Volumes for Eastern Washington: All Public and Private Vs All Private (Decadal
Annual Averages 1965-2063)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1965-1973
1974-1983
1984-1993
1994-2003
2004-2013
2014-2023
2024-2033
2034-2043
2044-2053
2054-2063
MM
BF
/Yr
All Public/Private Native, Small, Large Private
Sources: DNR Timber Harvest Reports 1965-2003, FIA & CVS Inventory Data; Tribal, Industry, Small Private Forestland Managers
Historic Projected
Five Year Running Average Temperature and Precipitation Trends for Eastern Washington (1899-2006)
15.0
15.5
16.0
16.5
17.0
17.5
18.0
18.5
19.0
1899 1909 1919 1929 1939 1949 1959 1969 1979 1989 1999
Jun
e, J
un
e A
ug
Ave
rag
e T
emp
erat
ure
(C
)
18.0
20.0
22.0
24.0
26.0
28.0
30.0
32.0
Pre
-gro
win
g S
easo
n p
reci
pit
atio
n (
in)
June, July, Aug temperature pre-growing season precipitation
Source: DNR, Oneil
Mortality by MPB in ponderosa and lodgepole pine in eastern Washington from 1979-2004 (tallied 1980-2005)
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
1979 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004
Year
To
tal
Mo
rtal
ity
(# t
rees
)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Mo
rtal
ity/
acre
(T
rees
/Acr
e)
# Trees killed by MPB # Trees/acre killed by MPB
Source: DNR, Oneil
Without treatment, dry fuels, drought, and hot summers mean catastrophic wildfire in eastern Washington
Source: NOAA, EPA, US Census, NIFC, RTI
2006 Forest Fires
Total WA ~ 400,000 acres Total US > 9.8 million acres
This
Or
This
East Side Question:
Source: TSS Consultants, http://www.cc.state.az.us/utility/electric/EPS-TSSC.pdf
Source: WSU, WA DOE
WA Biomass and Bioenergy Potential by Feed Stock Type
This? OR This?
WA Forest Products Jobs/MMBF/Year by Sector and Timbershed (1998-2004)
0.00
5.00
10.00
15.00
20.00
25.00
30.00
NC SC NPS SPS SW EC IE
Timbershed
Job
s/M
MB
F/Y
ear
Logging Sawnwood Other Mfg Furniture Paper
Harvest6,000 Loggers in WashingtonAnnual Payroll = $250 millionEmployment = 1.84 loggers/MMBF/Yr
Average contract logger is over 50 years of age
1995: 82% had health insurance but today: 53%
Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago
13% make money; 48% break even; 40% lose money
WCLA Survey Highlights – 98 Respondents ~ 900 MMBF/Yr
Washington Comparative Harvest Costs and Cost Multipliers with Regen Harvest Cost as the Baseline
Harvest Type
WCLA 2006 DNR 2006
Cost/MBF Cost Mult Cost/MBF Cost/MBF
Regen - Grd $ 69 1 $ 67 1
Regen - Cable $138 1 $ 93 1
Regen – 50/50 $104 1 $ 80 1
Select - Grd $160 2.32 - -
Select - Cable $231 1.67 - -
Select – 50/50 $196 1.89 - -
Thin – 50/50 $250 2.41 $175 2.19
Ave WCLA & DNR Lippke 1996
Cost/MBF Cost Mult Cost/MBF Cost Mult
$ 68 1 - -
$116 1 - -
$ 92 1 $150 1
- - - -
- - - -
- - - -
$213 2.32 $275 1.83
Harvest Type Logging Cost Change 2006-1996 Cost/MBF
Regen - Grd -
Regen - Cable -
Regen – 50/50 ($58)
Select - Grd -
Select - Cable -
Select – 50/50 -
Thin – 50/50 ($62)
WCLA Survey Response What are your company's five-year goals?
30%
11%
22%
13%
7%
18%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
Diversify Outof Logging
Specialize Get Smaller Expand MaintainStatus Quo
Retire
% R
esp
on
den
ts
48% are leaving logging!
HaulMore than 1 million loads/year 150 million miles 2400 Truck Drivers Annual payroll = $100 million Employment = 0.65 Drivers/MMBF/Yr
Source: WCLA Survey, Timber purchasers survey, NW Truckers Coop, Log Truckers Conference
Contract Vs Company Log Truck Preference
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
contract truckers company truckers both
% R
esp
on
den
ts
Timber Purchasers Contract Loggers
70% of Truckers are independents
Average trucker is over 50 years of age
Skilled workers are much harder to find than 10 years ago
A Comparison of Log Truck Registrations for WA- In State, WA- Interstate, and OR- In WA
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
# T
rucks
WA/In State WA/Interstate OR/WA
WA DOT, WA DOL, and ODOT
2006 - OR Trucks = 1593, WA Trucks = 1325 No. of WA Trucks down 36% since 1998
Sawn Wood Manufacture
12,000 mill workers in WashingtonAnnual Payroll = $480 millionEmployment = 4.3 mill workers/MMBF/Yr
Average years in business = 60 Average No. Employees = 192 Average Production = 200MMBF/Yr Sales are 98% domestic Average worker age = 43 Skilled workers hard to find
Sawmill Survey: 34 Respondents, 4.2 Billion BF Production
WA is #2 Producer in US 40% plan to expand 0% will pay for certified logs
Washington Lumber Production, Timber Harvests, and Log Exports
1992-2002
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
Mil
lio
n B
oa
rd F
ee
t
Lumber Production Timber harvest Log Exports
Reductions in log exports offset reductions in timber harvest for sawmills
Historical Lumber to Log Overrun Ratios for Western and Eastern Washington Sawmills
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
Rati
o
west east
Spotted Owl
Closure of inefficient mills, improvements in technology, and shift to second growth result in overrun gains (west but not east).
Source: DNR Mill Survey, RTI 2006 Survey
Log Price and Sale Net Log 2003-2006
$479
$516
$565$558
$192
$323
$205
$107
$420
$440
$460
$480
$500
$520
$540
$560
$580
2003 2004 2005 2006
$/M
BF
Lo
g S
cale
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$/M
BF
LB
R S
cale
Log Price Margin
Coast Log Price (left side)
Coast Lumber Return Net Log (right side)
2003 $3012004 $3762005 $3452006 $298
Year Lmbr Price
Westside Over Run = 2.23
Source: Random Lengths, Log Lines, NW Management, Future of WA Forests
$440
-$40
East Log Price
East Lumber Return Net Log (Not Good!)
Eastside Over Run = 1.34
Washington Forest Products Manufacturers - 2006
Pulp and Paper
8,500 Pulp and paper workers in WashingtonAnnual Payroll = $450 millionEmployment = 2.5 paper workers/MMBF/Yr
Washington Forest Products Manufacturers - 2006
No. of WA Pulp Mills & Pulp Export Facilities and Total Annual Production 1989 – 2002
2 Export Facilities 1 Export Facility
17 Domestic Mills
12 Domestic Mills
11.8 MMBDT
21.5 MMBDT
1 MMBDT
3.5 MMBDT
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1989 2002
Nu
mb
er
of
Fac
ilit
ies
0
5
10
15
20
25
Milli
on
Bo
ne D
ry T
on
s/Y
ear
Export Domestic Domestic Export
45% Reduction in Domestic Production 71% Reduction in Export Production
Forest Industry Summary
40,000 direct jobs & $1.7 billion in payroll
100,000 indirect jobs
Gross Business Income (2005) = $14.6 billion