The Future of Media in an Open, Networked and

Always-on WorldGerd Leonhard, Media Futurist

Presentationat the 2009 Siemens Media Industry SummIT in Rome

Leadership is crucial

Leadership is crucial

Serious opportunities exist in Media

Our world is indeed always-on

Our world is slowly but surely moving to open platforms

Egosystem becomes EcosystemReal-Time Everything

And magnetic, engaging brands win

• I want it when I want it [time-shifting]• I want it how and where I want it

[place-& platform shifting]• I want to be able to influence, talk-back,

contribute, determine [Control-shifting]• I’ll always want real value for my attention - or

else...[attention-shifting]• Total and complete Fragmentation -

as well as Re-Aggregation

Some important emerging cultural* practices...

Trend Example: the BBC iPlayer

• I think that up to 85% of the viewers will watch TV on their schedule, using any content from any archive, anytime, anywhere

• Mobile devices (streamed and cached) will make up the majority of usage (but some networks will be hard pressed to deliver)

• Copy protection, 7-day restrictions and UK IP requirements will be removed sooner or later

• iPlayer success proves that sharing, community, engaging is key for the Future of TV

• The difference between ‘watching a show’ and ‘owning a copy’ evaporates

• The iPlayer concept opens up many new up-selling opportunities

• This probably can’t be scaled without using some form of P2P technology (think Skype...)

In all Media, Push is out

Pull is In

Push is out

Pull is In

Content 2.0 Trends•We don’t consume - we use•Listening & watching is copying, by default (legal frameworks will adapt)

•Users are Content, themselves, too•Advertising is becoming 100% targeted, integrated, contextualized... Content!

•All content goes over IP

The Digital Natives: Internet over TV

0%

25%

50%

75%

100%

Was Is Soon The Future

Value Trends (by Gerd Leonhard)

Value of ‘a Copy’ Value of CONTEXTValue of Meta-Content Value of Experiences

Value of ‘a Copy’

Value of ContextValue of Experience

Value of Meta-Content

This requires a web-native Ecosystem

Content

Telecom & ICT Brands

(Advertisers)

CE (Device Makers)

Broad-casters

ISPs & Telcos become Content Players * in many drastically different ways

New Data Economy

New Content Economy

Next Generation Advertising

How, when and where can you charge for content?

First: what is Content, in the Future?• Professionally produced and

traditionally / legally owned• Created by the Users and shared-

alike-commons-public-free-etc• Meta-Content: the Users’ data and

click-streams layered around other (professional) content

• The Users themselves• Pro Content ‘appropriated’ by Users

So...nobody wants to pay anymore?

Let’s take note: How, when and where can you charge for content?

• We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem

• There are no recipes to success, yet!• Content is culture - and by definition

vastly different by location and constantly changing

•When and how much can you charge for content?

• We are only at the very beginning of this new content logic & ecosystem

• There are no recipes to success, yet!• Content is culture - and by definition

vastly different by location and constantly changing

•When and how much can you charge for content?

The balancing act gets harder... and faster

Attraction

Attention

Audience Growth

Fans & Followers

Stay relevant

Lock-in

RetentionConversion to $

Sales Increases

Encourage Participation

Engagement

Ownership

Key PositionDrive adoption

Be trusted

Control

Rupert Murdoch, chairman of News Corporation, this month

summed up the shift in thinking. “We are in the midst of an

epochal debate over the value of content, and it is clear to

many newspapers the current model is malfunctioning,” he

said, announcing plans to start charging for online content from

general interest newspapers such as The Times of London.

Some opinions

Google & Free Music in China•Free / Feels Like Free Music for China! •Unlimited, unprotected downloads•Paid with Attention, $-ized via Ads• In China, Copyright is a ‘lost cause’•Google is willing to ‘lubricate’ a new logic

•Free = nobody pays actual $ anywhere•Feels Like Free = the payment is bundled, or hidden, or absorbed somewhere else, or build-in; but: no individual payment decision is required everytime

•Freemium = all users get real value free of charge, but a good percentage selects to buy premium offers beyond the free level

•3rd party pays: someone else pays for my usage because they want access to me (and my data)

Freemium and New Generatives: Pandora

Convenience

Personalization

Packaging

Premium Experience

‘Paying for Privacy’

Convenience

Listening, Reading or Watching =

Keeping, Copying & Sharing

Broadcasters, Publishers and Studios:

The Future: not prevention but smarter toll-booth strategies

Stabilizing Piracy....????• Downloading has simply given

way to streaming on demand• Everything is moving to the

mobile phone - and sharing goes x100

• Broadband speeds keep increasing, costs keep dropping, everywhere

• Governments can and will not police the Networks to enforce scarcity of content or friction in content acquisition

=2.0

Social media shifts: Example: TV

So will people read like this?

Trends• Reading off screens will grow

exponentially, everywhere• Touch-screens will rule• Innovative UI & great UX is crucial • Expect device makers to offer subsidy

deals to mobile / data networks (like the Kindle in the US), and move towards ‘free’

• Content flat rates will explode, UGC will be crucial to fast adoption

Don’t be too little too late

Summary / Re-Cap

Real-Time Everything

Real-Time Everything

★ email me at gerd@mediafuturist.com★ twitter.com/gleonhard★ facebook: gleonhard★ more presentations at

www.mediafuturist.com

Thanks for listening!