Post on 01-Jun-2020
The future of food – the future of
biodiversity
Global impacts of food consumption
Wayne Powell & Ian Dawson October 2015
Defining the challenge
~9 Billion People / 1 Planet
Humanity’s Greatest Challenge
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Producing
70% more
food by 2050,
without
destroying the
environment
Extensive reviews of the challenges-well defined
General features of most studies
Highlight the complexity
Strong focus on production and the main
challenges for the agricultural system
Define the key actions for sustainable
intensification
Everything is important – difficult to prioritize
Population Demographics
Agriculture is at the Centre of society’s most
important debates
Rural Development
Resource Use Efficiency/Waste Reduction
Sustainable Intensification Resilience (agricultural, societal)
Responsible Diets Precision Farming
Internalising Environmental Costs
Climate Change Adapted Crop Systems
High-Tech World
Industrial Agricultural System
Response to Mass Demand
Urbanisation / Changing Diets
Globalised Trade System
20
30 T
oday
Culture of Innovation
3
Hyper-urbanisation Rapid Change in Diets
1
2
Regionalised Trade Systems
Understanding &
prioritizing Strategic
Drivers
Rising urban population, 2050 projections
Nourishing the world’s cities
Global food security will become primarily an urban challenge in the future. However, the current international food security agenda is mostly rural-oriented and still focuses more on food availability than on food access and nutrition.
Food deserts
Urban food security indicators
Informal economy
Rural-urban linkages
Global Arable Land and Population
Youth & Gender in the context of Research
Youth employment in agriculture especially
relevant in Africa south of the Sahara
Responding to Future Challenges
A sustainable food security framework -address more holistically
the complex relationships between its different stages and
actors.
Trade, value chains, food access (and its determinants, e.g,
income, employment, gender, etc.) will need to feature much more
prominently on the research and policy agenda.
Innovation throughout local and global food system will also be
key to foster sustainable food security worldwide.
The agricultural and rural context cannot anymore be considered as
an isolated entity but rather a component of an interconnected
system with rural, sub-urban and urban dimensions which operate
at local and global level.
14
Maize: nearly X4
Sugar: more than X3
Soyabean: more than X8
Oilpalm fruit: more than X17
0.00
100000000.00
200000000.00
300000000.00
400000000.00
500000000.00
600000000.00
700000000.00
800000000.00
900000000.00
ton
ne
s
World, production
Wheat
Maize
Rice
Other cereals
0.00
50000000.00
100000000.00
150000000.00
200000000.00
250000000.00
ton
ne
s
World, production
Soyabeans
Rape and Mustardseed
Sunflowerseed
Other Oilcrops
Oilpalm fruit
0.00
500000000.00
1000000000.00
1500000000.00
2000000000.00
2500000000.00
ton
ne
s
World, production sugar plants and products
Source: Agrimonde-Terra
EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION
Trends and Patterns in Food consumption
Convergence of global diets & a need for diet
diversity
Shifts and homogenisation of global diets
Global impact food consumption obesity
Brazil, from 2006 to 2012:
Ultra processed products in
household diets: from 20% to
28% (32% in urban areas) Cooking ingredients: from 37% to
32%.
Prevalence of obesity among
adult increased from 12% to
17%. Source: Monteiro et al. 2011; Martins et al. 2013
SHIFT TOWARD OBESITY AND NON
COMMUNICABLE DISEASES
Global homogenization of food and
interdependence-need for resilience.
Risks and opportunities in food systems are being understood in
new ways with new implications
What if…
Trade of agricultural products collapses
The last thirty years have been marked by increased liberalisation and globalisation, yet a number of
uncertainties could profoundly stop or reverse this trend
governance local/global international negotiations food quality and safety standards regulations climate change trade, value chains, food access
Food insecurity a significant risk
to “global society”
Food safety/security issues create
“direct and indirect risks &
opportunities for businesses”
Insurance can play a large role in
risk mitigation/management
as well as innovation/investment
March, 2014
Consortium of International Agricultural Research
Centers
Shifts and homogenisation of global diets
Production trends for ‘winner’ and ‘loser’ crops, Khoury et
al. 2014
Source of production data 1961 to 2013: FAOSTAT
Time series (annual, 1961 to 2013)
Rela
tive
va
lue
(to
19
61
)
0
1
2
3
4Rice (paddy)
>> C
>> P
0
1
2
3
4Groundnuts (with shell)
< C
<< F
0
1
2
3Coconut
<< C
<< F
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20Oil palm (fruit)
>> C
>> F
0
1
2
3
4Wheat>> C
>> P
< F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11Soybean
>> C
> P
>> F
0
1
2
3
4
5Cassava<< C
< P
0
1
2Millet
<< C
<< P
< F
0
1
2Sorghum
<< C
<< P
< F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7Sunflower (seed)
>> C
> P
>> F
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
19
61
19
63
19
65
19
67
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
BananaProduction quantity Area harvested Yield Baseline
5 winners
5 losers
Production systems for ‘winner’ and ‘loser’ crops, Khoury et
al. 2014
Ca
ssa
va
Co
co
nu
t
Gro
un
dn
uts
(w
ith
sh
ell
)
Mil
let
So
rgh
um
Ba
na
na
Ba
rle
y
Be
an
s (d
ry)
Pla
nta
in
Sw
ee
t p
ota
to
Co
ffe
e (
gre
en
)
Ma
ize
(e
x.
gre
en
)
Ma
ize
(g
ree
n)
Po
tato
Co
co
a (
be
an
s)
Oil
pa
lm (
fru
it)
Ric
e (
pa
dd
y)
So
yb
ea
n
Su
nfl
ow
er
(se
ed
)
Wh
ea
t
Pro
du
ctio
n s
yste
m d
ive
rsity
(in
terc
rop
pin
g)
5 Losers
Large decrease
5 Winners
Large increase Increase
Decrease Little change
Relative importance as food (trend, 1961 to 2009)
V. high
High
Medium
Low C
assa
va
Co
con
ut
Gro
un
dn
uts
(w
ith
sh
ell)
Mill
et
Sorg
hu
m
Ban
ana
Bar
ley
Bea
ns
(dry
)
Pla
nta
in
Swee
t p
ota
to
Co
ffee
(gr
een
)
Mai
ze (
ex. g
reen
)
Mai
ze (
gree
n)
Po
tato
Co
coa
(bea
ns)
Oil
pal
m (
fru
it)
Ric
e (p
add
y)
Soyb
ean
Sun
flo
we
r (s
ee
d)
Wh
eat
Dominant production systems
Other production systems
• Winner crops are often grown in monoculture or close to
monoculture systems
• The implications of their increased success as foods are serious
for biodiversity when based on area expansion and when grown in
biodiversity rich areas (e.g., soybean, oil palm
Current CGIAR Research Focus
Building on Biodiversity: genetic resources for the future of humanity
Crop origins and diversification: multiple births
Little overlap between centres of origin &
today’s productive agriculture.
(A) calories in national food supplies B) production quantity in national production systems.
Countries are highly interdependent in regard to the primary
regions of diversity of crops that are important in their food
systems.
Global Stewardship of Plant Genetic
Resources
• CGIAR have committed to PGRFA being made available in the multilateral International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture
CGIAR have committed to PGRFA
being made available in the multilateral
system of access and benefit sharing
and managed according to
FAO Genebank Standards
CIAT NEW GENEBANK
CROP DIVERSITY
• 738,000 accessions
• 702,934 seed
• 31,681 tissue culture
• 27,763 whole plants
RESPONDING TO USERS
EVERY YEAR:
~ 2000 requests
~ 130,000 samples distributed
> 100 countries worldwide
6%
94%
Managing & Sustaining Crop Collections (eg ICRISAT, India)
• Nutrition is essential to
global food security.
• Malnutrition is
imperiling health &
imperiling economies.
• Resilient and
sustainable Food
systems can play a
key role in improving
global nutrition
Expand the research agenda for nutrition sensitive
food systems
RELEASED!
2011
Cassava Provitamin A DR Congo, Nigeria
2012
Beans Iron (Zinc) DR Congo, Rwanda
2012
Maize Provitamin A Zambia
Sweet Potato Provitamin A Mozambique, Uganda
Micronutrient-Rich Crops for Africa delivery-at-scale to 50 million people
from 8 target countries
Research agenda for nutrition sensitive food
systems
What breeding approaches do we need to
support mixed farming systems of the future?
Brachiaria-tropical grass species bred to
reduce nitrogen emissions from soil.
Complex interactions and benefits of inter-cropping:
Research Needs.
Adaptation to agronomic plant density: Genome-Wide Association Study
GWAS results for Adaptation to density index (ADi) = yield (O)-yield (I)
Comparison of inner and outer rows Adaption to density (index) associated
with high yielding sites
Loci1 Loci2 Loci3
Inner row (I)
Outer row (O)
(I+O)
black sites = high yield enviros;
blue sites = stressed enviros
Genomic selection & new population
development
• ii
Integration of modern Genetics,
Data and NRM/Agronomy
Compatible with mixed farming systems
Sequencing Technology and Informatics has Revolutionized
Biology with major implications for Agriculture.
ABI 3730
• Roche 454
• Illumina
• SOLiD (Life
Technologies)
• Helicos
• Pacific
Biosciences
• Roche 454 • Illumina • SOLiD (Life
Technologies) • Helicos • Pacific Biosciences • Oxford Nanopore (Illumina) • Ion Torrent
.01 Corn genome
equivalents per year
0.2 - 0.4 Corn genome
equivalents per day
2001-2007 2007-2014 2014-2020
New Opportunities
.01 Corn genome
equivalents per
year
.01 Corn genome
equivalents per
year
.01 Corn genome
equivalents per year
0.2 - 0.4 Corn genome
equivalents per day .01 Corn genome
equivalents per
year
.01 Corn genome
equivalents per
year
Hundreds of
thousands of genes
per year
Thousands of
genes per year
Rate of novel gene & allele discovery
Genome per
decade
Genome per
year
>100 genomes
per day
Genome per
day
Rate of genome sequence production
Millions of genes
per year Tens of millions of
genes per year
Knowledge
African Orphan Crops Consortium
Summary
• Development of sustainable food production systems that support
healthy diets requires integrative research and is knowledge
intensive;
– Transdisciplinary research, new partnerships & funding
relationships.
• CGIAR’s research priorities need to reflect changes in the scientific
and development landscape.
– More holistic
• Global Public Goods that deliver multiple benefits:
– Improve and integrate orphan species.
• Data & analytics
• Nurturing diversity both ex situ and in situ.
• Urgency and at scale.
The biosphere – nature’s
solutions