The future of food – the future of

biodiversity

Global impacts of food consumption

Wayne Powell & Ian Dawson October 2015

Defining the challenge

~9 Billion People / 1 Planet

Humanity’s Greatest Challenge

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Producing

70% more

food by 2050,

without

destroying the

environment

Extensive reviews of the challenges-well defined

General features of most studies

Highlight the complexity

Strong focus on production and the main

challenges for the agricultural system

Define the key actions for sustainable

intensification

Everything is important – difficult to prioritize

Population Demographics

Agriculture is at the Centre of society’s most

important debates

Rural Development

Resource Use Efficiency/Waste Reduction

Sustainable Intensification Resilience (agricultural, societal)

Responsible Diets Precision Farming

Internalising Environmental Costs

Climate Change Adapted Crop Systems

High-Tech World

Industrial Agricultural System

Response to Mass Demand

Urbanisation / Changing Diets

Globalised Trade System

20

30 T

oday

Culture of Innovation

3

Hyper-urbanisation Rapid Change in Diets

1

2

Regionalised Trade Systems

Understanding &

prioritizing Strategic

Drivers

Rising urban population, 2050 projections

Nourishing the world’s cities

Global food security will become primarily an urban challenge in the future. However, the current international food security agenda is mostly rural-oriented and still focuses more on food availability than on food access and nutrition.

Food deserts

Urban food security indicators

Informal economy

Rural-urban linkages

Global Arable Land and Population

Youth & Gender in the context of Research

Youth employment in agriculture especially

relevant in Africa south of the Sahara

Responding to Future Challenges

A sustainable food security framework -address more holistically

the complex relationships between its different stages and

actors.

Trade, value chains, food access (and its determinants, e.g,

income, employment, gender, etc.) will need to feature much more

prominently on the research and policy agenda.

Innovation throughout local and global food system will also be

key to foster sustainable food security worldwide.

The agricultural and rural context cannot anymore be considered as

an isolated entity but rather a component of an interconnected

system with rural, sub-urban and urban dimensions which operate

at local and global level.

14

Maize: nearly X4

Sugar: more than X3

Soyabean: more than X8

Oilpalm fruit: more than X17

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World, production

Wheat

Maize

Rice

Other cereals

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World, production

Soyabeans

Rape and Mustardseed

Sunflowerseed

Other Oilcrops

Oilpalm fruit

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World, production sugar plants and products

Source: Agrimonde-Terra

EVOLUTION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION

Trends and Patterns in Food consumption

Convergence of global diets & a need for diet

diversity

Shifts and homogenisation of global diets

Global impact food consumption obesity

Brazil, from 2006 to 2012:

Ultra processed products in

household diets: from 20% to

28% (32% in urban areas) Cooking ingredients: from 37% to

32%.

Prevalence of obesity among

adult increased from 12% to

17%. Source: Monteiro et al. 2011; Martins et al. 2013

SHIFT TOWARD OBESITY AND NON

COMMUNICABLE DISEASES

Global homogenization of food and

interdependence-need for resilience.

Risks and opportunities in food systems are being understood in

new ways with new implications

What if…

Trade of agricultural products collapses

The last thirty years have been marked by increased liberalisation and globalisation, yet a number of

uncertainties could profoundly stop or reverse this trend

governance local/global international negotiations food quality and safety standards regulations climate change trade, value chains, food access

Food insecurity a significant risk

to “global society”

Food safety/security issues create

“direct and indirect risks &

opportunities for businesses”

Insurance can play a large role in

risk mitigation/management

as well as innovation/investment

March, 2014

Consortium of International Agricultural Research

Centers

Shifts and homogenisation of global diets

Production trends for ‘winner’ and ‘loser’ crops, Khoury et

al. 2014

Source of production data 1961 to 2013: FAOSTAT

Time series (annual, 1961 to 2013)

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(to

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)

0

1

2

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4Rice (paddy)

>> C

>> P

0

1

2

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4Groundnuts (with shell)

< C

<< F

0

1

2

3Coconut

<< C

<< F

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Oil palm (fruit)

>> C

>> F

0

1

2

3

4Wheat>> C

>> P

< F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11Soybean

>> C

> P

>> F

0

1

2

3

4

5Cassava<< C

< P

0

1

2Millet

<< C

<< P

< F

0

1

2Sorghum

<< C

<< P

< F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7Sunflower (seed)

>> C

> P

>> F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

19

61

19

63

19

65

19

67

19

69

19

71

19

73

19

75

19

77

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79

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20

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20

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BananaProduction quantity Area harvested Yield Baseline

5 winners

5 losers

Production systems for ‘winner’ and ‘loser’ crops, Khoury et

al. 2014

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)

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ize

(e

x.

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ize

(g

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a (

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(in

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pin

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5 Losers

Large decrease

5 Winners

Large increase Increase

Decrease Little change

Relative importance as food (trend, 1961 to 2009)

V. high

High

Medium

Low C

assa

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eat

Dominant production systems

Other production systems

• Winner crops are often grown in monoculture or close to

monoculture systems

• The implications of their increased success as foods are serious

for biodiversity when based on area expansion and when grown in

biodiversity rich areas (e.g., soybean, oil palm

Current CGIAR Research Focus

Building on Biodiversity: genetic resources for the future of humanity

Crop origins and diversification: multiple births

Little overlap between centres of origin &

today’s productive agriculture.

(A) calories in national food supplies B) production quantity in national production systems.

Countries are highly interdependent in regard to the primary

regions of diversity of crops that are important in their food

systems.

Global Stewardship of Plant Genetic

Resources

• CGIAR have committed to PGRFA being made available in the multilateral International Treaty on Plant Genetic Resources for Food and Agriculture

CGIAR have committed to PGRFA

being made available in the multilateral

system of access and benefit sharing

and managed according to

FAO Genebank Standards

CIAT NEW GENEBANK

CROP DIVERSITY

• 738,000 accessions

• 702,934 seed

• 31,681 tissue culture

• 27,763 whole plants

RESPONDING TO USERS

EVERY YEAR:

~ 2000 requests

~ 130,000 samples distributed

> 100 countries worldwide

6%

94%

Managing & Sustaining Crop Collections (eg ICRISAT, India)

• Nutrition is essential to

global food security.

• Malnutrition is

imperiling health &

imperiling economies.

• Resilient and

sustainable Food

systems can play a

key role in improving

global nutrition

Expand the research agenda for nutrition sensitive

food systems

RELEASED!

2011

Cassava Provitamin A DR Congo, Nigeria

2012

Beans Iron (Zinc) DR Congo, Rwanda

2012

Maize Provitamin A Zambia

Sweet Potato Provitamin A Mozambique, Uganda

Micronutrient-Rich Crops for Africa delivery-at-scale to 50 million people

from 8 target countries

Research agenda for nutrition sensitive food

systems

What breeding approaches do we need to

support mixed farming systems of the future?

Brachiaria-tropical grass species bred to

reduce nitrogen emissions from soil.

Complex interactions and benefits of inter-cropping:

Research Needs.

Adaptation to agronomic plant density: Genome-Wide Association Study

GWAS results for Adaptation to density index (ADi) = yield (O)-yield (I)

Comparison of inner and outer rows Adaption to density (index) associated

with high yielding sites

Loci1 Loci2 Loci3

Inner row (I)

Outer row (O)

(I+O)

black sites = high yield enviros;

blue sites = stressed enviros

Genomic selection & new population

development

• ii

Integration of modern Genetics,

Data and NRM/Agronomy

Compatible with mixed farming systems

Sequencing Technology and Informatics has Revolutionized

Biology with major implications for Agriculture.

ABI 3730

• Roche 454

• Illumina

• SOLiD (Life

Technologies)

• Helicos

• Pacific

Biosciences

• Roche 454 • Illumina • SOLiD (Life

Technologies) • Helicos • Pacific Biosciences • Oxford Nanopore (Illumina) • Ion Torrent

.01 Corn genome

equivalents per year

0.2 - 0.4 Corn genome

equivalents per day

2001-2007 2007-2014 2014-2020

New Opportunities

.01 Corn genome

equivalents per

year

.01 Corn genome

equivalents per

year

.01 Corn genome

equivalents per year

0.2 - 0.4 Corn genome

equivalents per day .01 Corn genome

equivalents per

year

.01 Corn genome

equivalents per

year

Hundreds of

thousands of genes

per year

Thousands of

genes per year

Rate of novel gene & allele discovery

Genome per

decade

Genome per

year

>100 genomes

per day

Genome per

day

Rate of genome sequence production

Millions of genes

per year Tens of millions of

genes per year

Knowledge

African Orphan Crops Consortium

Summary

• Development of sustainable food production systems that support

healthy diets requires integrative research and is knowledge

intensive;

– Transdisciplinary research, new partnerships & funding

relationships.

• CGIAR’s research priorities need to reflect changes in the scientific

and development landscape.

– More holistic

• Global Public Goods that deliver multiple benefits:

– Improve and integrate orphan species.

• Data & analytics

• Nurturing diversity both ex situ and in situ.

• Urgency and at scale.

The biosphere – nature’s

solutions