The Future Challenges of Sustainable Manufacturing

Steve Evansse321@cam.ac.uk

Industry in 2050:4 x output

0 x greenhouse gasses

0.5 x resources

Clean. Healthy. Equitable

Some mega-trends to 2050:

Lean, globalization, more consumers, digitalization

More consumers, more urban & connected,digitalization, constrained resources, disruptions, big data, small factories

What makes me angry50% of edible food not eaten33% of weight of building not used1% of available chemical energyused to transport person in a car10% of processed material reachesthe customer27% load factor in UK trucks…??...

The IEA estimates that $523 billion was used

to cut fossil fuel prices in 2011

Efficiency Value

Technology System

www.nextmanufacturingrevolution.org

Best in Europe?

12% more profit 15% more jobs 4.5% less GHGs

Average: 335kg/tonne

90th percentile: 295kg/tonne

Best this year? CO2- Cement Factory

same profit same jobs

19.7% less GHGs

8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

UK manufacturingheadcount (righthand axis)

UK manufacturingpurchases of goods,materials andservices (£mln)

UK manufacturingemployment costs(£mln)

£ Billion of Costs(Adjusted for inflation to £2011 and for

production*) (Lines)Million FTEs

(Bars)

*Adjusted for Index of Production indexed to 1 in 2011.Sources: Office for National Statistics , Annual Business Survey, C Manufacturing, Release date 15 Nov 2012; Office for National Statistics, Detailed Indices of Production, 2011; World Bank UK inflation dataCalculations by Lavery/Pennell

Why? One possible root cause

Externalities

Everywhere

Efficiency Value

Technology System

…leverages our advanced manufacturing capabilities…in beet

Wissington – our integrated biorefinery

Page12 The world’s leading sugar businessCapturing value from biology

Efficiency Value

Technology System

Innovating system in Fast Fashion(less raw material, longevity, circular)

Some early experiments

1 l/100kms cheaper than a Ford Focus > $10k profit

Innovating the systemTheForaging Factory

Key Influences to 2030Business as usual, focus on efficiency, hoping for a growing market

Location decisions change Strong focus on efficiency Increased information content (either free or paid for)Sensors in everythingIncreased provenanceAutomation everywhere

Personalisation Co-creationGentani (actual limits)

Business LeadershipWell-being as business goal

Disruption, experimentation, radical technology

Multiple disruptionsfood-water-energy politics

Scale logic changes direction

Resilience to disruptions (s/c’s)

Search for valuechemistryproductbusiness model

Big datasensors for lifeseeing everything

Circular economy Information replaces materialsLightweight, complex materialsBio-materialsExperiments everywhere

New structures & governance

Sustainable making Commons

New models of growthManufacturing supply chain flattens with a new geography

local making PositiveFactoryretail making

Enabling product architecturesNew forms of governanceBase of pyramid fully engagedBusiness Leadership++

Longer & fasterSpecific & informingBiology & biological

Indu

stria

l Dig

italis

atio

nTe

chno

logi

es

More data

More connectivity

More flexible automation

More analysis

Do more with less= productive

Benchmarking

Augmented Reality (AR) for energy

AI & IOT for energy

AR factory design

Be strong during disruption= resilient

Frequency response per process

F2G:factory to grid AI design

Exchange waste

Mapping material flows

Live within means= sustainable

Foraging factory

Re-manufacturing renaissance

Business model innovation

Circular making

(UK) benefits

12% profit++

SMEs to MEsNew SMEs

4.5% CO2reduction

benefitsReduced

downtime, more (export)

customers

SMEs to MEsNew SMEs

Cheaper & stronger grid, Reduction in

material imports,

more UK added value

benefitsReduced

downtime, more added

value

SMEs to MEsNew SMEs

Clean air, clean energy, more

jobs

Evidenced benefits

To Manufacturer

To Technology Supplier

To Public

Industrial Digitalisation & Sustainability

experiments

Experiments

Everywhere