The Future Challenges of Sustainable Manufacturingpd-symposium.org/files/csfd/05. CFSD DTU Evans...
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Transcript of The Future Challenges of Sustainable Manufacturingpd-symposium.org/files/csfd/05. CFSD DTU Evans...
Industry in 2050:4 x output
0 x greenhouse gasses
0.5 x resources
Clean. Healthy. Equitable
Some mega-trends to 2050:
Lean, globalization, more consumers, digitalization
More consumers, more urban & connected,digitalization, constrained resources, disruptions, big data, small factories
What makes me angry50% of edible food not eaten33% of weight of building not used1% of available chemical energyused to transport person in a car10% of processed material reachesthe customer27% load factor in UK trucks…??...
The IEA estimates that $523 billion was used
to cut fossil fuel prices in 2011
Efficiency Value
Technology System
www.nextmanufacturingrevolution.org
Best in Europe?
12% more profit 15% more jobs 4.5% less GHGs
Average: 335kg/tonne
90th percentile: 295kg/tonne
Best this year? CO2- Cement Factory
same profit same jobs
19.7% less GHGs
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1995
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UK manufacturingheadcount (righthand axis)
UK manufacturingpurchases of goods,materials andservices (£mln)
UK manufacturingemployment costs(£mln)
£ Billion of Costs(Adjusted for inflation to £2011 and for
production*) (Lines)Million FTEs
(Bars)
*Adjusted for Index of Production indexed to 1 in 2011.Sources: Office for National Statistics , Annual Business Survey, C Manufacturing, Release date 15 Nov 2012; Office for National Statistics, Detailed Indices of Production, 2011; World Bank UK inflation dataCalculations by Lavery/Pennell
Why? One possible root cause
Externalities
Everywhere
Efficiency Value
Technology System
…leverages our advanced manufacturing capabilities…in beet
Wissington – our integrated biorefinery
Page12 The world’s leading sugar businessCapturing value from biology
Efficiency Value
Technology System
Innovating system in Fast Fashion(less raw material, longevity, circular)
Some early experiments
1 l/100kms cheaper than a Ford Focus > $10k profit
Innovating the systemTheForaging Factory
Key Influences to 2030Business as usual, focus on efficiency, hoping for a growing market
Location decisions change Strong focus on efficiency Increased information content (either free or paid for)Sensors in everythingIncreased provenanceAutomation everywhere
Personalisation Co-creationGentani (actual limits)
Business LeadershipWell-being as business goal
Disruption, experimentation, radical technology
Multiple disruptionsfood-water-energy politics
Scale logic changes direction
Resilience to disruptions (s/c’s)
Search for valuechemistryproductbusiness model
Big datasensors for lifeseeing everything
Circular economy Information replaces materialsLightweight, complex materialsBio-materialsExperiments everywhere
New structures & governance
Sustainable making Commons
New models of growthManufacturing supply chain flattens with a new geography
local making PositiveFactoryretail making
Enabling product architecturesNew forms of governanceBase of pyramid fully engagedBusiness Leadership++
Longer & fasterSpecific & informingBiology & biological
Indu
stria
l Dig
italis
atio
nTe
chno
logi
es
More data
More connectivity
More flexible automation
More analysis
Do more with less= productive
Benchmarking
Augmented Reality (AR) for energy
AI & IOT for energy
AR factory design
Be strong during disruption= resilient
Frequency response per process
F2G:factory to grid AI design
Exchange waste
Mapping material flows
Live within means= sustainable
Foraging factory
Re-manufacturing renaissance
Business model innovation
Circular making
(UK) benefits
12% profit++
SMEs to MEsNew SMEs
4.5% CO2reduction
benefitsReduced
downtime, more (export)
customers
SMEs to MEsNew SMEs
Cheaper & stronger grid, Reduction in
material imports,
more UK added value
benefitsReduced
downtime, more added
value
SMEs to MEsNew SMEs
Clean air, clean energy, more
jobs
Evidenced benefits
To Manufacturer
To Technology Supplier
To Public
Industrial Digitalisation & Sustainability
experiments
Experiments
Everywhere
