THE BRADLEY EFFECT

AND THE

DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION

Answering questions and testing hypotheses

on data for the presidential elections

in the United States of America from 1980 to 2008

Wout Ultee

Radboud University Nijmegen

November 11, 2008

Course Contemporary sociological theories

Second bachelor year

WHY DID OBAMA WIN FROM McCAIN?

HE GOT MORE MONEY FOR TV-ADS THAN McCAIN

BUT WHY DID OBAMA GET MORE MONEY THAN McCAIN?

THERE ARE MORE RESOURCES THAN MONEY

OTHER RESOURCES ARE SYMBOLIC

AND AN EFFECTIVE SYMBOLIC RESOURCE IS CHARISMA

OR FLUENCY, THE GIFT OF THE GAB, RHETORICS

SYMBOLIC RESOURCES, YES, OBAMA USED THEM

AND OBAMA OBTAINED MONEY IN THAT WAY

BUT OBAMA NOT ONLY UTILIZED SYMBOLIC RESOURCES

OBAMA ALSO FACED SYMBOLIC HANDICAPS

OBAMA’S FOREMOST SYMBOLIC HANDICAP WAS THE COLOR OF HIS SKIN

HOW MUCH EFFECT DID THIS SYMBOLIC HANDICAP HAVE?

WE COMPLEMENT A MARXIST HYPOTHESIS WITH A RICH VERSION OF A WEBERIAN HYPOTHESIS

THE QUESTION OF THIS PRESENTATION: THEY DID, REALLY ?

THIS CARTOON DRIVES HOME A SUPOSEDLY DISAPPEARING EFFECT OF OBAMA’S SYMBOLIC HANDICAP

STATE RESULTS FOR 2004

THE PREVIOUS MAP IS FOR 2004 AND VERY RED,

WHICH IS NOT SURPRISING SINCE A REPUBLICAN CANDIDATE WON

BUT THE NEXT ONE FOR 2008 IS STILL VERY RED,

ALTHOUGH A DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE WON

THE OUTCOME OF US PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS 2008

THE MAPS WE JUST SAW ARE QUITE MISLEADING AND FAVOUR THE REPUBLICANS TOO MUCH:

STATES DIFFER IN POPULATION DENSITY, WHEREAS DEMOCRACY MEANS ONE PERSON, ONE VOTE

AND THE STATES WITH THE LOWEST POPULATION DENSITY ARE THE MOST REPUBLICAN

THE NEXT MAP GIVES STATES A SIZE PROPORTIONATE TO THEIR NUMBER OF SEATS IN THE ELECTORAL COLLEGE

AND THAT NUMBER OF SEATS IS PROPORTIONATE TO THE NUMBER OF INHABITANTS OF A STATE

THIS MAP IS PAINTED IN BLUE,

AND EVEN MORE IF THE COLOR THE BLUE-WHITE STATES BECOME BLUE

ONCE MORE THE OUTCOME OF THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

WE NOW MOVE FROM DATA AT THE LEVEL OF STATES

TO DATA AT THE LEVEL OF INDIVIDUALS

INDIVIDUAL DATA OFTEN ALLOW FOR STRONGER TESTS OF

HYPOTHESES

WE LATER WIL STUDT DATA ON COUNTIES, A LEVEL IN BETWEEN

STATES AND INDIVIDUALS

YOU AS A YOUNG PERSON WILL LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH

THE GRAPH IS TAKEN FROM THE DUTCH NEWSPAPER

NRC-HANDELSBLAD:

ACCORDING TO EXIT POLLS YOUNG PERSONS WERE THE MOST LIKELY TO VOTE FOR

OBAMA

BUT DO YOU AS A WHITE PERSON

LIKE THE NEXT GRAPH?

WHITES IN 2008 WERE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A WHITE REPUBLICAN THAN FOR A

BLACK DEMOCRAT

YET, THE NEXT CLIPPING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SAYS THAT

THE USA IN THE 2008 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS JUMPED ITS LONG-STANDING

COLOR LINE

SO, DID THAT COUNTRY, REALLY?

BACK TO THE DID-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION:

GIVEN THE NRC-HANDELSBLAD GRAPH,

COMPUTE THE BLACK/WHITE DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN ODDS RATIO

DOES THIS STATISTIC TELL ENOUGH ABOUT SURMOUNTING THE RACIAL BARRIER IN US

POLITICS?

NO, THAT DEPENDS UPON THE VALUE OF THIS ODDS RATIO IN THE 2004

PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

COMPUTE THIS ODDS RATIO GIVEN THE FOLLOWING FOUR GRAPHS FOR 2008,

2004, 1992 and 1980

THE DATA WERE TAKEN FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE NEW YORK TIMES AND

THE INTERNATIONAL HERALD TRIBUNE SINCE RECENTLY CALLED THE GLOBAL

EDITION OF THE NEW YORK TIMES

The n’s for computing percentages for race are 74, 13, 9 and 2, and those for religion 52%, 27, 2 and 40

THE BLACK/WHITE

DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN

ODDS RATIO

FOR 2008

IS 30.4

The n’s for computing percentages for race are 77, 11, 8 and 2, and those for religion 54, 27, 3 and 42

THE BLACK/WHITE

DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN

ODDS RATIO

FOR 2004

IS 11.3

The n’s for computing percentages for race are 87, 8, 2 and 1, and those for religion 56%, 21, 4 and 22

THE BLACK/WHITE

DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN

ODDS RATIO

FOR 1992

IS 8.5

The n’s for computing percentages for race are 89, 11, 2 and not avialable, and those for religion 51%, 27, 5 and not available

THE BLACK/WHITE

DEMOCRATIC/REPUBLICAN

ODDS RATIO

FOR 1980

IS 12.0

IF THE ODDS RATIO IS A GOOD MEASURE

FOR THE BLACK/WHITE POLITICAL RIFT

THAT RIFT INCREASED IN THE SHORT RUN

AND IN MEDIUM TERM ONE

AND IN THE LONG RUN

OF COURSE

UPON CLOSER INSPECTION

THE 2008 INCREASE IS THERE

BECAUSE IN 2008 THE ODDS FOR BLACKS TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRAT

INCREASED MORE THAN THESE ODDS FOR WHITES

BUT DID THE ODDS FOR CERTAIN WHITES TO VOTE FOR A DEMOCRATIC

CANDIDATE PERHAPS DECREASE?

TOM-JAN MEEUS AND DIRK VLASBLOM OF NRC-HANDELSBLAD IN THE PAST FEW WEEKS

MENTIONED THE BRADLEY EFFECT

IN POLLS CERTAIN WHITES SAY THEY ARE GOING TO VOTE FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE

BUT WHEN CASTING THEIR VOTE

WHITES VOTE FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE

THE LEAD OF OBAMA IN THE POLLS WAS A BIT LARGER THAN HIS LEAD IN THE ACTUAL

ELECTION OUTCOME

ACTUAL OUTCOME: 52 VERSUS 46 PERCENT POLLS: A DIFFERENCE OF 8 PERCENT

BUT THAT IS A WEAK TEST OF THE

BRADLEY EFFECT

AND THE ALL-IMPORTANT QUESTION REMAINS UNANSWERED:

ARE WHITE PERSONS LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK THAN FOR A WHITE CANDIDATE ?

WHERE IN THE USA

MIGHT THE WHITE PERSONS LIVE

WHO ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE

FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE ?

WHICH STATES OF THE USA

WERE THE LAST ONES TO DO AWAY WITH RACIAL LAWS?

TO WHICH STATES DID THE BILLY- HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLY MOST STRONGLY?

WE ENCOUNTERED THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS IN THE FIRST BACHELOR YEAR DURING THE COURSE

SOCIOLOGY’S MAIN QUESTIONS

IT ALSO FEAUTURES IN THE CLIPPING WE NOW REREAD

PINPOINT THE PERTINENT PHRASE !

THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS INVOKES

THE STRANGE FRUITS HANGING FROM SOUTHERN TREES

MOST AFRO-AMERICANS (BLACKS, NEGROES, COLOURED PEOPLE)

SINCE THE FOUNDING OF THE UNITED STATES WERE LEGALLY SLAVES

AFTER THE CIVIL WAR AND THE LEGAL ABOLITION OF SLAVERY

THE DISADVANTAGED POSITION OF BLACKS WAS MAINTAINED BY VARIOUS OTHER NEW

RACIAL LAWS

AND BY THE DENIAL OF DUE PROCESS IN COURT BY MOB LYNCHING

THE LAST RACIAL LAWS WERE SCRAPPED IN THE 1960s,

THE PERIOD OF THE CIVIL RIGHTS MOVEMENT

SO, THE BILLY-HOLIDAY HYPOTHESIS APPLIES MOST STRONGLY TO

THE SOUTHERN STATES OF THE USA

THE STATES WHICH LOST THE CIVIL WAR OF THE EARLY 1860s

THE SOUTHERN STATES ARE THE ONES THAT LOST THE 1861-1865 CIVIL WAR IN THE UNITED STATES

THEY WERE CALLED CONFEDERATE STATES AND THEY ARE NAMED:

ALABAMA, ARKANSAS, FLORIDA, GEORGIA, MISSISSIPPI, NORTH CAROLINA, SOUTH CAROLINA,

TEXAS, VIRGINIA

ALL THESE STATES HAD LAWS ALLOWING SLAVERY

THE STATES THAT ALLOWED SLAVERY BUT STAYED WITHIN THE UNION DURING THE CIVIL WAR WERE:

DELAWARE , KENTUCKY , MARYLAND , MISSOURI , WEST VIRGINIA

FROM THE TIMES ATLAS OF WORLD HISTORY 1979

DIGRESSION

TO WHAT EXTENT DID LYNCHING OCCUR IN THE UNITED STATES

AND WHERE DID IT OCCUR WITH THE HIGHEST RELATIVE FREQUENCY ?

Two slides from

Franklin E. Zimring

The contradictions of American Capital Punishment

Oxford, Oxford University Press

Pages 90 and 91

NOW WE ARE GOING TO TEST

THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE PERSONS IN THE SOUTH

ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE

FOR A BLACK CANDIDATE

TO DO THIS, WE NOW TAKE

NEITHER STATES NOR INDIVIDUALS

AS THE UNITS OF ANALYSIS

BUT COUNTIES WITHIN STATES

AND WE STUDY THE CHANGES IN ELECTORAL OUTCOMES OF COUNTIES

BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008

THESE CHANGES FOR COUNTIES ARE SURPRISINGLY INFORMATIVE

THE COUNTIES WHERE, IN OPPOSITION TO THE TREND TOWARDS A HIGHER

PERCENTAGE OF DEMOCRATIC VOTES IN ALL STATES OF THE USA TAKEN

TOGETHER,

THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED

ARE TO BE FOUND IN THE SOUTH OF THE USA

THE FOLLOWING CLIPPINGS ARE FROM THE IHT PRINT EDITION

THIS STATEMENT APPEARED NOT IN THE IHT OF NOVEMBER 6, BUT THE ISSUE OF NOVEMBER 7

THE PREVIOUS MAPS ARE A BIT MISLEADING

THEY PORTRAY BOTTOM AND CEILING EFFECTS

IT IS NOT WISE TO COMPUTE DIFFERENCE SCORES:

THE REPUBLICAN VOTE INCREASED WITH XX PERCENT ETC

A STRONG INCREASE OF PERCENTAGES IS NEARLY IMPOSSIBLE

IF THE FIRST PERCENTAGE ALREADY IS HIGH

WHAT SHOULD BE DONE INSTEAD :

REGRESS FOR COUNTIES

THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE ON

THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE

AND DO SO

SEPERATELY FOR COUNTIES IN THE SOUTH

AND COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE SOUTH

BUT THAT IS BEYOND THE SCOPE OF THE PRESENT MEETING

ANOTHER TEST OF THE HYPOTHESIS THAT WHITE

PERSONS ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR A BLACK

CANDIDATE

REGRESSES FOR STATES

THE 2008 DEMOCRATIC VOTE

ON THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE

STIJN RUITER MADE THE NEXT GRAPH

IN THE SCATTERGRAM MOST SOUTHERN STATES ARE BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE:

ALABAMA , ARKANSAS , LOUISIANA , MISSISSIPPI , SOUTH CAROLINA ,

TENNESSEE , WEST VIRGINIA

TOGETHER WITH ALASKA AND ARIZONA, THE STATE FROM WHICH McCAIN AND PALIN

ORIGINATE

WHEN DRAWING THE REGRESSION LINE

WASHINGTON DC WITH A MORE THAN 90 PERCENT DEMOCRATIC VOTE WAS LEFT OUT

OKLOHOMA IS BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE BUT WAS NOT A STATE DURING THE CIVIL WAR

FLORIDA , TEXAS , NORTH CAROLINA , AND VIRGINIA ARE SOUTHERN STATES ON THE

REGRESSION LINE

FLORIDA HAS A LOT OF REFUGEES FROM CUBA AND THESE LATINOS VOTED DEMOCRATIC

PARTS OF VIRGINIA BECAME COMMUTER AREAS FOR PEOPLE WORKING IN WASHINGTON DC

TEXAS HAD A LOT OF DISTRICTS WITH MORE REPUBLICAN VOTES

BUT THAT TENDENCY IN TEXAS PROBABLY IS OFFSET BY THE LATINO DEMOCRATIC VOTE

THAT SOUTHERN STATES

FALL BELOW THE REGRESSION LINE

IS QUITE SURPRISING

SOUTHERN STATES AFTER ALL

HAVE A HIGHER PERCENTAGE

OF BLACK INHABITANTS

AS THE NEXT MAP MAKES CLEAR

FROM THE

WEBSITE OF THE U.S.A.

BUREAU OF THE CENSUS

THEREFORE

IF AT THE INDIVIDUAL LEVEL

BLACKS ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN

IN COUNTIES OR IN STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS

ALL OTHER THINGS BEING EQUAL

THE 2008 VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRATS SHOULD BE STRONGER

YET THE DEMOCRATIC VOTE

IN COUNTIES AND STATES WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS

IS LOWER THAN EXPECTED ACCORDING TO THE 2004 DEMOCRATIC VOTE

SO, OTHER THINGS DID NOT REMAIN EQUAL

SOUTHERN WHITES MOVED TO REPUBLICAN SIDE

ANOTHER AND STRONGER TEST

THE CNN WEBSITE GIVES

EXIT POLLS DATA

FOR EVERY STATE

FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE

PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA

FOR EVERY STATE WE NOW KNOW THE

PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA

WE ARE THUS ABLE TO TEST A PROPOSITION

LIKLING INDIVIDUAL DATA TO STATE DATA

A PROPOSITION WITH TWO UNITS OF ANALYSIS

MAKE A GRAPH

PLOTTING THE PERCENT OF BLACK POPULATION

AGAINST THE PERCENT OF WHITES VOTING OBAMA

AND AGAINST THE PERCENT OF BLACKS VOTING OBAMA

FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE US BUREAU OF THE

CENSUS

WE KNOW FOR EVERY STATE

THE PERCENT OF THE POPULATION THAT IS

BLACK

OUR WHITES-DO-NOT-VOTE-FOR-A BLACK-CANDIDATE HYPOTHESIS

IS CORROBORATED:

WHITES ARE LESS LIKELY TO VOTE FOR OBAMA

IF THEY LIVE IN A STATE WITH A HIGHER PERCENT OF BLACKS

BUT DOES THE HYPOTHESIS APPLY TO SOUTHERN

STATES ONLY,

OR TO ALL KINDS OF STATES?

THE NEXT GRAPH CONTAINS SEPARATE LINES

ONLY IN SOUTHERN STATES

DOES THE PERCENT OF BLACKS

INFLUENCE THE WHITE VOTE

THE UPSHOT:

THE RACIAL DIVIDE

WAS NOT CROSSED

IN THE USA IN 2008

IN THE PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS

WHITES ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN BLACKS

AND WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A HIGHER PERCENTAGE OF BLACKS ARE MORE

LIKLEY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN WHITES IN A STATE OR COUNTY WITH A LOWER PERCENTAGE

0F BLACK INHABITANTS

IN ADDITION ,

IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS BLACK, WHITES IN COUNTIES OR STATES WITH A HIGHER

PERCENTAGE OF BLACK INHABITANTS

ARE MORE LIKELY TO VOTE REPUBLICAN THAN IF THE DEMOCRATIC CANDIDATE IS WHITE

THE ANSWER TO THIS PRESENTATION’S DO-WHITES-VOTE-FOR-BLACKS QUESTION ?

EVEN NOW, WHITES DO NOT, REALLY

RELIGION SUPPOSEDLY PLAYS A BIG ROLE IN US ELECTIONS TOO

HOW BIG WAS THAT ROLE IN 2004 AND 2008?

FIRST FORMULATE AN HYPOTHESIS ABOUT THE NATURE OF THIS RELATIONSHIP

USE FOR THAT PURPOSE THE NEXT CUTTING FROM THE INTERNATIONAL

HERALD TRIBUNE

COMPUTE ODDS RATIOS FOR

THE RELATION BETWEEN CHURCH ATTENDANCE AND

VOTING

IN 2004 AND 2008

ON THE BASIS OF THE FIGURES GIVEN IN THE IHT CLIPPING

COMPUTE OTHER PERTINENT ODDS RATIOS FOR EFFECTS OF

WHITE EVANGELICANISM AND OF CHURCH ATTENDANCE IN 2000,

2004 AND 2008

GIVEN THE FOLLOWING THREE SETS OF FIGURES

FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND

PUBLIC LIFE

TELL EXACTLY WHICH HYPOTHESES YOU ARE TESTING

THIS TIME

COMPUTE THESE ODDS RATIOS FOR 1980, 1992, 2004

AND 2008 TOO

GIVEN THE FOUR EARLIER GRAPHS FROM THE WEBSITE

OF THE IHT AND THE NYT

THE FIGURES ARE FROM THE WEBSITE OF THE PEW FORUM FOR RELIGION AND PUBLIC LIFE

CHECK THIS CONCLUSION

GO TO THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE

AND

COMPUTE THE ODDS RATIO FOR EVERY PRESIDENTIAL

ELECTION

FROM 1980 TO 2008

WRITE UP YOUR COMMENTS ON THE TIME SERIES !

THE MAP WITH COUNTIES AND

THE INCREASE IN THE PERCENT OF REPUBLICAN VOTES

IS PART OF A SERIES OF 14 MAPS ON THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE

WE NOW LOOK AT THEM

NOW WE PRESENT THE FOURTEEN IHT-NYT WEBSITE MAPS ON ELECTORAL SHIFTS

THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE

NOW MOVES FROM

COUNTIES TO INDIVIDUALS

AS THE UNIT OF ANALYSIS

THE INDIVIDUAL DATA ARE FROM EXIT POLLS

THE PREVIOUS SLIDE SHOWS A NICE CONTRAST WITH THE NRC DATA FOR THE PERCENT OF

WHITE PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008

SURE, THAT PERCENTAGE IS BELOW FIFTY IN 2008,

BUT IT INCREASED BETWEEN 2004 AND 2008

YET ALSO, THE PERCENT OF BLACK PERSONS VOTING DEMOCRATIC IN 2008 COMPARED WITH

2004 INCREASED EVEN MORE

THE IHT-NYT WEBSITE THEN GOES ON TO PRESENT INDIVIDUAL DATA FOR STATES

SEPERATELY

SOMETIMES WE SEE THE LACK OF DATA BECAUSE OF TOO SMALL N’s

IN THESE STATES THE ELECTORAL OUTCOME WAS A CLIFF HANGER (TOSS-UP)

THE EXIT POLL DATA

FOR 1984, 1988, 1996 AND 2000

FROM THE NYT-IHT WEBSITE

NECESSARY TO

COMPUTE UNINTERRUPTED TIME SERIES

THE END

AFTER

WHO VOTES FOR WHOM ?

THE QUESTION IS :

WHO GLOWS FOR WHOM ?