Post on 17-Dec-2015
The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002
The Honorable Kenneth B. MehlmanDeputy Assistant to the President
and Director of Political Affairs
2002 Election Outlook
Democrat SeatsStrong chance of R pickup - 5Possible R pickup - 3
Republican SeatsPossible D Pickup - 6Strong Chance of D Pickup - 2
No Contest - 18
Democrat SeatsStrong chance of R pickup - 5Possible R pickup - 8
Republican SeatsPossible D Pickup - 6Strong Chance of D Pickup - 9
No Contest - 8
Competitive Republicans (25)
Open Seats (19)Vulnerable Democrats (10)
Tier 1- Competitive - 11Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6
House
Senate Governors
Battle for the HouseCompetitive Republican Seats
MA
MTWA
OR
CA
NV
ID
UT
NMAZ
WY
CO
NE
SD
ND
OK
KS
TX LA
AR
MO
IA
MN
IL
WI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
SC
GA
FL
NC
VAWV
OH
PA
NY
MEVT
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
HI
AK
MI
NH
Competitive Republican Seats (25)Tier 1- Competitive - 11Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6
Battle for the HouseVulnerable Democrat Seats
MA
MTWA
OR
CA
NV
ID
UT
NMAZ
WY
CO
NE
SD
ND
OK
KS
TX LA
AR
MO
IA
MN
IL
WI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
SC
GA
FL
NC
VAWV
OH
PA
NY
MEVT
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
HI
AK
MI
NH
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)
Battle for the HouseCompetitive Open Seats
MA
MTWA
OR
CA
NV
ID
UT
NMAZ
WY
CO
NE
SD
ND
OK
KS
TX LA
AR
MO
IA
MN
IL
WI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
SC
GA
FL
NC
VAWV
OH
PA
NY
MEVT
RI
CT
NJ
DE
MD
DC
HI
AK
MI
NH
Competitive Republican Seats (25)
Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)
Competitive Open Seats (19)
MA
WA
OR
CA
NV
ID
UT
AZ
WY
NE
ND
OK
KS
TX+21%
AR
MO
IA
MN
IL
WI
IN
KY
TN
MS AL
SC
FL
NC
VAWV
OH
PA
NY
MEVT
RI
CTNJ
DE
MD
DC
HI
AK
MI
NH
Battle for the Senate
2000 Bush Margin (%) shown
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)
MT
SD
LA
GA
MT+25%
SD+23%
LA+7%
GA+12%
MO+3%
IA-0%
MN-2%
NJ-15%
CO+9%
OR-0%
AR+5%
NC+13%
NH+1% ME
-5%
NM
TN +4%
Possible R Pickup (3)
Possible D Pickup (6)Strong Chance of D Pickup (2)
No Contest (18)
MA-27%
WA
OR
CA-12%
NV
ID
UT
AZ+7%
WY
NE
ND
OK
KS
TX+22%
AR
MO
IA
MN
IL-12%
WI-0%
IN
KY
TN
MSAL
+15%
SC+16%
FL+0%
NC
VAWV
OH+3%
PA-4%
NY-25%
MEVT
-10%
RI -29%CT
-17%NJ
DE
MD-16%
DC
HI-18%
AK+31%
MI-5%
NH
2000 Bush Margin (%) shown
Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)
MT
SD
GA
MT
SD
LA
MO
IA-0%
MN-2%
CO+9%
OR-0%
AR
NC
NH+1.3% ME
-5.1%
NM-0%
Possible R Pickup (8)
Possible D Pickup (6)Strong Chance of D Pickup (9)
TN +4%
GA+12%
Battle for the Statehouse
No Contest (8)
2002 Campaign Outlook2002 1st Quarter Finances ($ millions)
Total Fed Non COH Fed NonRNC 31.7 26.3 5.4 38.8 38.8 0.0NRCC 21.5 12.0 9.5 20.4 10.3 10.1NRSC 15.0 9.9 5.1 27.9 16.0 11.9Total 68.2 48.2 20.0 87.1 65.1 22.0
Total Fed Non COH Fed NonDNC 25.7 8.7 17.0 23.7 8.2 15.5DCCC 12.0 4.9 7.1 17.2 5.3 11.9DSCC 11.0 4.8 6.2 23.1 7.0 16.1Total 48.7 18.4 30.3 64.0 20.5 43.5
What We’ll Face2000 Political Expenditures
AFL-CIO $45.0 millionEmily’s List $20.0 millionPlanned Parenthood $14.0 millionNAACP $11.0 millionSierra Club $ 9.5 millionNEA $ 9.0 millionNARAL $ 8.0 millionHandgun Control $ 5.0 millionLCV $ 4.0 million
$125.5 million
Our 2002 Strategy
Maintain apositive issueenvironment
IdentifyIssue
Synergies
ProvideCampaignResources
HelpEarn Media
The Strategic LandscapeJune 4, 2002
The Honorable Karl C. RoveSenior Advisor to the President
Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data
• Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in history
• Durability is testament to President’s leadership
President’s approval rating still very strong
• Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances reassert themselves
• No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political activity or economy has significantly impacted the President’s rating
Decline is natural and expected
Republican Party is in strong position
• Congressional Republicans & Democrats at parity in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in 1994
• GOP support on key issues
Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data
• Confidence in current economy low
• Americans optimistic about economic future
Economic outlook
Unprecedented SupportGallup Presidential Job Approval
5757
6263
58
53
5962
5356565555
525655
575755
8690
8789888787878686848384
82828177
8079797675
7777767677
25252122
2929302933
31
36353334 3335353436
106
10 8 9 9 9 101112131314141418
1416171920
172019
1717
51
57
8
39
35
2/4 3/7 4/8 5/14 6/17 7/21 8/19 9/15 10/14 11/11 12/14 1/27 3/3 3/20 4/11 5/9
ApproveDisapprove
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Presidential Job Approval AnalysisPublic Poll Average
87.5 87.6 86.2 85.282.2 80.4 79.2
76.0 74.6
7.8 7.8 8.0 10.012.8 13.3 14.8 17.5 18.0
Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Avg Approval
Avg Disapproval
Office of Strategic Initiatives 5/28/02 Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD & CBS/NYT
One Party Will Make History
Office of Strategic Initiatives
• For Republicans: White House party has won House seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections
• For Democrats: Only 3 times has either party gained House seats 4 elections in a row
• For Republicans: White House party has lost Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct election
Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms
Presidential Approval <50% 41 lost
Presidential Approval 50%-59% 20 lost
Presidential Approval 60%+ 5 lost
Source: NBC/WSJ
Presidents’ Standing Matters
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Mid-Term Political LandscapeMore Favorable to Republicans
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Control of Congress will turn on handful of races decided by local issues, candidate quality, money raised, campaign performance, etc.
• Extremely Popular President
• Recovering Economy
• Increased Importance of National Security Issues
• Redistricting
• No Compelling National Issue for Referendum
• Small Number of Competitive Races
Democratic Strategy
• Support President on War
• Question President’s Middle East Strategy
• Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security, Health Care Costs, Environment, Education
• Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare
• Divide President and Congressional Republicans
• Maximize Outside Resources
Office of Strategic Initiatives
Republican Strategy
Office of Strategic Initiatives
• Focus on War and Economy
• Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare, Faith
• Highlight Democrats’ Obstructionism on Judges, Agenda
• Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics, Unions, African-Americans
• Strong Teamwork between White House, Political Committees and Members
• Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums
2002 Bush Outreach
GROWLatinosSuburbs (esp. Women)CatholicsUnion MembersWired Workers
EXPANDBelievers
IMPROVEAfrican Americans
MAINTAINBaseCoal & SteelFarmersRanchers
Office of Strategic Initiatives
MA-12
MT-3WA-11
OR-7
CA-55+1
NV-5+1
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
+2
WY-3
CO-9+1
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7-1
KS-6
TX-34+2
LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21-1
WI -10-1
IN-11-1
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6-1
AL-9
SC-8
GA-15+2
FL-27+2
NC-15+1
VA-13WV-5
OH-20-1
PA-21-2
NY-31-2
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7-1NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17-1
NH-4
2000Bush 271Gore 267
2000Bush 271Gore 267
2004Bush 278Gore 260
2004Bush 278Gore 260
Change in Electoral Apportionment
Bush Carried 2000
Gore Carried 2000
MA-12
MT-3WA-11
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34 LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13WV-5
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Won by Less Than 5%78 Electoral Votes
MA-12
MT-3WA-11
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34 LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13WV-5
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Lost By Less Than 1%29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs
MA-12
MT-3WA-11
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34 LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13WV-5
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Lost By 1-5%63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs
MA-12
MT-3WA-11
OR-7
CA-55
NV-5
ID-4
UT-5
NM-5AZ-10
WY-3
CO-9
NE-5
SD-3
ND-3
OK-7
KS-6
TX-34 LA-9
AR-6
MO-11
IA-7
MN-10
IL-21
WI -10
IN-11
KY-8
TN-11
MS-6 AL-9
SC-8
GA-15
FL-27
NC-15
VA-13WV-5
OH-20
PA-21
NY-31
ME-4VT-3
RI-4
CT-7
NJ-15
DE-3
MD-10
DC-3
HI-4
AK-3
MI-17
NH-4
Special Concerns
Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when
he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president of the U.S." and said, "It is our job to say
we're not getting over Florida."