The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002 The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman Deputy Assistant to the President...

The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002

The Honorable Kenneth B. MehlmanDeputy Assistant to the President

and Director of Political Affairs

2002 Election Outlook

Democrat SeatsStrong chance of R pickup - 5Possible R pickup - 3

Republican SeatsPossible D Pickup - 6Strong Chance of D Pickup - 2

No Contest - 18

Democrat SeatsStrong chance of R pickup - 5Possible R pickup - 8

Republican SeatsPossible D Pickup - 6Strong Chance of D Pickup - 9

No Contest - 8

Competitive Republicans (25)

Open Seats (19)Vulnerable Democrats (10)

Tier 1- Competitive - 11Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6

House

Senate Governors

Battle for the HouseCompetitive Republican Seats

MA

MTWA

OR

CA

NV

ID

UT

NMAZ

WY

CO

NE

SD

ND

OK

KS

TX LA

AR

MO

IA

MN

IL

WI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

SC

GA

FL

NC

VAWV

OH

PA

NY

MEVT

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

DC

HI

AK

MI

NH

Competitive Republican Seats (25)Tier 1- Competitive - 11Tier 2- Competitive Now - May Be Better - 8Tier 3- Worth Watching - 6

Battle for the HouseVulnerable Democrat Seats

MA

MTWA

OR

CA

NV

ID

UT

NMAZ

WY

CO

NE

SD

ND

OK

KS

TX LA

AR

MO

IA

MN

IL

WI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

SC

GA

FL

NC

VAWV

OH

PA

NY

MEVT

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

DC

HI

AK

MI

NH

Competitive Republican Seats (25)

Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)

Battle for the HouseCompetitive Open Seats

MA

MTWA

OR

CA

NV

ID

UT

NMAZ

WY

CO

NE

SD

ND

OK

KS

TX LA

AR

MO

IA

MN

IL

WI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

SC

GA

FL

NC

VAWV

OH

PA

NY

MEVT

RI

CT

NJ

DE

MD

DC

HI

AK

MI

NH

Competitive Republican Seats (25)

Vulnerable Democrat Seats (10)

Competitive Open Seats (19)

MA

WA

OR

CA

NV

ID

UT

AZ

WY

NE

ND

OK

KS

TX+21%

AR

MO

IA

MN

IL

WI

IN

KY

TN

MS AL

SC

FL

NC

VAWV

OH

PA

NY

MEVT

RI

CTNJ

DE

MD

DC

HI

AK

MI

NH

Battle for the Senate

2000 Bush Margin (%) shown

Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)

MT

SD

LA

GA

MT+25%

SD+23%

LA+7%

GA+12%

MO+3%

IA-0%

MN-2%

NJ-15%

CO+9%

OR-0%

AR+5%

NC+13%

NH+1% ME

-5%

NM

TN +4%

Possible R Pickup (3)

Possible D Pickup (6)Strong Chance of D Pickup (2)

No Contest (18)

MA-27%

WA

OR

CA-12%

NV

ID

UT

AZ+7%

WY

NE

ND

OK

KS

TX+22%

AR

MO

IA

MN

IL-12%

WI-0%

IN

KY

TN

MSAL

+15%

SC+16%

FL+0%

NC

VAWV

OH+3%

PA-4%

NY-25%

MEVT

-10%

RI -29%CT

-17%NJ

DE

MD-16%

DC

HI-18%

AK+31%

MI-5%

NH

2000 Bush Margin (%) shown

Strong Chance of R Pickup (5)

MT

SD

GA

MT

SD

LA

MO

IA-0%

MN-2%

CO+9%

OR-0%

AR

NC

NH+1.3% ME

-5.1%

NM-0%

Possible R Pickup (8)

Possible D Pickup (6)Strong Chance of D Pickup (9)

TN +4%

GA+12%

Battle for the Statehouse

No Contest (8)

2002 Campaign Outlook2002 1st Quarter Finances ($ millions)

Total Fed Non COH Fed NonRNC 31.7 26.3 5.4 38.8 38.8 0.0NRCC 21.5 12.0 9.5 20.4 10.3 10.1NRSC 15.0 9.9 5.1 27.9 16.0 11.9Total 68.2 48.2 20.0 87.1 65.1 22.0

Total Fed Non COH Fed NonDNC 25.7 8.7 17.0 23.7 8.2 15.5DCCC 12.0 4.9 7.1 17.2 5.3 11.9DSCC 11.0 4.8 6.2 23.1 7.0 16.1Total 48.7 18.4 30.3 64.0 20.5 43.5

What We’ll Face2000 Political Expenditures

AFL-CIO $45.0 millionEmily’s List $20.0 millionPlanned Parenthood $14.0 millionNAACP $11.0 millionSierra Club $ 9.5 millionNEA $ 9.0 millionNARAL $ 8.0 millionHandgun Control $ 5.0 millionLCV $ 4.0 million

$125.5 million

Our 2002 Strategy

Maintain apositive issueenvironment

IdentifyIssue

Synergies

ProvideCampaignResources

HelpEarn Media

The Strategic LandscapeJune 4, 2002

The Honorable Karl C. RoveSenior Advisor to the President

Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data

• Ratings at post-crisis high longer than any in history

• Durability is testament to President’s leadership

President’s approval rating still very strong

• Rally effect fades as partisan allegiances reassert themselves

• No evidence that Enron attacks, POTUS political activity or economy has significantly impacted the President’s rating

Decline is natural and expected

Republican Party is in strong position

• Congressional Republicans & Democrats at parity in the generic ballot - Republicans trailed in 1994

• GOP support on key issues

Public OpinionSummary of Recent Data

• Confidence in current economy low

• Americans optimistic about economic future

Economic outlook

Unprecedented SupportGallup Presidential Job Approval

5757

6263

58

53

5962

5356565555

525655

575755

8690

8789888787878686848384

82828177

8079797675

7777767677

25252122

2929302933

31

36353334 3335353436

106

10 8 9 9 9 101112131314141418

1416171920

172019

1717

51

57

8

39

35

2/4 3/7 4/8 5/14 6/17 7/21 8/19 9/15 10/14 11/11 12/14 1/27 3/3 3/20 4/11 5/9

ApproveDisapprove

Office of Strategic Initiatives

Presidential Job Approval AnalysisPublic Poll Average

87.5 87.6 86.2 85.282.2 80.4 79.2

76.0 74.6

7.8 7.8 8.0 10.012.8 13.3 14.8 17.5 18.0

Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May

Avg Approval

Avg Disapproval

Office of Strategic Initiatives 5/28/02 Based on Gallup, Fox, ABC/WP, IBD & CBS/NYT

One Party Will Make History


• For Republicans: White House party has won House seats in only 3 out of last 25 midterm elections

• For Democrats: Only 3 times has either party gained House seats 4 elections in a row

• For Republicans: White House party has lost Senate seats in 16 of 22 mid-terms since direct election

Average House Seats Lost by WH Party in Mid-Terms

Presidential Approval <50% 41 lost

Presidential Approval 50%-59% 20 lost

Presidential Approval 60%+ 5 lost

Source: NBC/WSJ

Presidents’ Standing Matters


Mid-Term Political LandscapeMore Favorable to Republicans


Control of Congress will turn on handful of races decided by local issues, candidate quality, money raised, campaign performance, etc.

• Extremely Popular President

• Recovering Economy

• Increased Importance of National Security Issues

• Redistricting

• No Compelling National Issue for Referendum

• Small Number of Competitive Races

Democratic Strategy

• Support President on War

• Question President’s Middle East Strategy

• Attack on Domestic Agenda -- Social Security, Health Care Costs, Environment, Education

• Use Budget, Tax Cuts and Enron for Class Warfare

• Divide President and Congressional Republicans

• Maximize Outside Resources


Republican Strategy


• Focus on War and Economy

• Promote Compassion Agenda -- Education, Welfare, Faith

• Highlight Democrats’ Obstructionism on Judges, Agenda

• Mobilize GOP Base, Reach Out to Hispanics, Unions, African-Americans

• Strong Teamwork between White House, Political Committees and Members

• Maximize Outside Resources and Create New Forums

2002 Bush Outreach

GROWLatinosSuburbs (esp. Women)CatholicsUnion MembersWired Workers

EXPANDBelievers

IMPROVEAfrican Americans

MAINTAINBaseCoal & SteelFarmersRanchers


MA-12

MT-3WA-11

OR-7

CA-55+1

NV-5+1

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

+2

WY-3

CO-9+1

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7-1

KS-6

TX-34+2

LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21-1

WI -10-1

IN-11-1

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6-1

AL-9

SC-8

GA-15+2

FL-27+2

NC-15+1

VA-13WV-5

OH-20-1

PA-21-2

NY-31-2

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7-1NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17-1

NH-4

2000Bush 271Gore 267




Change in Electoral Apportionment

Bush Carried 2000

Gore Carried 2000

MA-12

MT-3WA-11

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34 LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13WV-5

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7

NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Won by Less Than 5%78 Electoral Votes

MA-12

MT-3WA-11

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34 LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13WV-5

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7

NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Lost By Less Than 1%29 Electoral Votes -- 307 EVs

MA-12

MT-3WA-11

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34 LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13WV-5

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7

NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Lost By 1-5%63 Electoral Votes -- 370 EVs

MA-12

MT-3WA-11

OR-7

CA-55

NV-5

ID-4

UT-5

NM-5AZ-10

WY-3

CO-9

NE-5

SD-3

ND-3

OK-7

KS-6

TX-34 LA-9

AR-6

MO-11

IA-7

MN-10

IL-21

WI -10

IN-11

KY-8

TN-11

MS-6 AL-9

SC-8

GA-15

FL-27

NC-15

VA-13WV-5

OH-20

PA-21

NY-31

ME-4VT-3

RI-4

CT-7

NJ-15

DE-3

MD-10

DC-3

HI-4

AK-3

MI-17

NH-4

Special Concerns

Rep. Charles Rangel (D-Harlem) drew cheers when

he hailed Clinton as "the last elected president of the U.S." and said, "It is our job to say

we're not getting over Florida."

The 2002 Challenge June 4, 2002 The Honorable Kenneth B. Mehlman Deputy Assistant to the President...

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