Post on 26-Jun-2020
Consulting Services for
SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT IN THE
DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991
MONTENEGRO- INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION FRAMEWORK REPORT VOLUME 2 – ANNEXES
May 2017
Consulting Services for
SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES
MANAGEMENT IN THE
DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991
MONTENEGRO – INVESTMENT PRIORITISATION FRAMEWORK REPORT VOLUME 2 – ANNEXES
May 2017
PROJECT NO. A038803
DOCUMENT NO. 1
VERSION B
DATE OF ISSUE May 2017
PREPARED all authors and institutions as in inception report
CHECKED Nadja Zeleznik, REC
APPROVED Roar Selmer Solland, COWI
Consulting Services for
SUPPORT TO WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
IN THE DRINA RIVER BASIN PROJECT ID NO. 1099991
This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund under the Western Balkans Investment Framework. The views expressed herein are those of authors and can therefore in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the Contributors to the European Western Balkans Joint Fund or the EBRD and the EIB, as co‐managers of the European Western Balkans Joint Fund.
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin i
Table of Contents
Page No
Acronyms and Abbreviations ............................................................................................................................... x
1 Annex 1 – Supporting Introduction Chapter 1 1-1
2 Annex 2 Supporting Setting core water management development targets – key objectives Chapter 2 1-2
3 Annex 3 – Supporting Inventory of Changes for DRB development Chapter 3 3-3
3.1 Annex 3-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 3-3 Financing and its influence on priorities 3-3
3.2 Annex 3-2: Overall impact assessment matrix 3-8
4 Annex 4 – Supporting Water management development options Chapter 4 4-16
4.1 Annex 4-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 4-4 Monitoring 4-16
5 Annex 5 – Supporting Modelling the impacts of development options on Water balance Chapter 5-20
5.1 Annex 5-1 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-2 Influence of climate change on hydrology 5-20
5.2 Annex 5-2 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-3 Water resources system modelling 5-43
5.3 Annex 5-3 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-4 Flood risk assessment 5-1
6 Annex 6 – Supporting Multi-criteria analysis of development scenarios Chapter 6 6-5
6.1 Annex 6-1 Economic costs and benefits per scenarios 6-5
6.2 Annex 6-2 Sensitivity analysis 6-6
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin ii
List of Figures
Page No Figure 3-1 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................ 3-6 Figure 3-2 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................ 3-7 Figure 5-1: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM1 climate parameter seta – Part 1 ................................................................... 5-20 Figure 5-2: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM1 climate parameters set – Part 2 ................................................................... 5-21 Figure 5-3: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the climate CM2 parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-22 Figure 5-4: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM2 climate parameter set – Part 2 ..................................................................... 5-23 Figure 5-5: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM3 climate parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-24 Figure 5-6: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM3 climate parameter set – Part 2 ..................................................................... 5-25 Figure 5-7: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM4 climate parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-26 Figure 5-8: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM4 climate parameter set – Part 2 ..................................................................... 5-27 Figure 5-9: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in
accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 1 ..................................................................... 5-28 Figure 5-10: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 2 ................................................................. 5-29 Figure 5-11: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM6 climate parameter set – Part 1 ................................................................. 5-30 Figure 5-12: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM6 climate parameter set – Part 2 ................................................................. 5-31 Figure 5-13: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM7 climate parameter set – Part 1 ................................................................. 5-32 Figure 5-14: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM7 climate parameter set – Part 2 ................................................................. 5-33 Figure 5-15: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
in accordance with the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 1 ................................................................. 5-34 Figure 5-16: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations
according to the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 2 ........................................................................... 5-35 Figure 5-17: Relative changes (Δ) of mean annual discharges (ANN) during the periods of near (from 2011 to
2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................................................. 5-36
Figure 5-18: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of winter season (DJF) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-37
Figure 5-19: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of spring season (MAM) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................................... 5-38
Figure 5-20: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of summer season (JJA) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-39
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin iii
Figure 5-21: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of autumn season (SON) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ................................................................................................... 5-40
Figure 5-22: Relative changes (Δ) of higher mean annual proticaja with exceedance probability of 10% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................................... 5-41
Figure 5-23: Relative changes (Δ) of lower mean annual discharges with exceedance probability of 90% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8). ............................................................. 5-42
Figure 5-24 Planned HPPs :in red the values proposed for an harmonized EF over the DRB (- no data) ........ 5-1 Figure 5-25. Flood frequency distribution of floods at Radalj for the baseline period compared to the
distribution obtained from the complete record. .................................................................................... 5-1 Figure 5-26. Flood frequency distributions for baseline period and two future periods under two climate
scenarios (left graphs: RCP 4.5, right graphs: RCP 8.5). ........................................................................... 5-2 Figure 6-1 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ............................................ 6-5 Figure 6-2 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ............................................ 6-6
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin iv
List of Tables
Page No
Table 3-1: HPP Investment Costs (EUR, Constant 2016 prices) ........................................................................ 3-5 Table 3-2: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase ............................................... 3-8 Table 3-3: Social - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase ........................................................ 3-10 Table 3-4: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Operation phase ................................................. 3-12 Table 3-5: Social - Without mitigation measures –Operation phase .............................................................. 3-14 Table 4-1: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin ...................................................... 4-16 Table 4-2: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin .................................................... 4-17 Table 4-3: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin ..................................................... 4-19 Table 4-4: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin ............................................. 4-19 Table 5-1 Existing HPPs ................................................................................................................................... 5-43 Table 5-2. 100-year flood flows of Drina at Radalj hydrologic station – comparison of estimates based on the
observed and simulated hydrology. ......................................................................................................... 5-3 Table 6-1 Scenario 2 .......................................................................................................................................... 6-6 Table 6-2 Scenario 3 .......................................................................................................................................... 6-7
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin v
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
AAC Average annual concentration AASWA Agency of the Adriatic Sea Water Area BiH Bosnia and Herzegovina oC Degrees Celsius CLIDATA Climate Data Software System CW Civil Works DIV Diversion (Hydropower Type) DNA Designated National Authority DRB Drina River Basin EBRD European Bank for Reconstruction and Development EEA European Environmental Agency EEC European Economic Community EF Environmental Flow EIA Environmental Impact Assessment EP Elektroprivreda EPA Environmental Protection Agency EPCG Elektroprivreda Crna Gore (Montenegro) EPR Environmental Performance Review EPS Elektroprivreda Serbia ERS Elektroprivreda Republike Srpske EU European Union EUR Euro FAO Food and Agriculture Organisation FASRB Framework Agreement on Sava River Basin FBiH Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina FCDA Federal Civil Defence Authority FGO Federal Geological Office FHMO Federal Hydro meteorological Office FHMS Federal Hydro meteorological Service FIA Federal Inspection Authority FMAWMF Federal Ministry of Agriculture, Water Management and Forestry FMEMI Federal Ministry of Energy Mining and Industry FMET Federal Ministry of Environment and Tourism FMIA Federal Ministry of Internal Affairs FMTC Federal Ministry of Transport and Communications FOFDP Federal Operational Flood Defence Plan FRY Federal Republic of Yugoslavia FSO Federal Statistical Office GCOS Global Climate Observing System GDP Gross Domestic Product GEP Guaranteed Environmental Flow method GHG Green House Gas GIS Geographical Information System GWh Gigawatt hours HEC-HMS Hydrologic Engineering Centre – Hydrologic Modelling System HEC-RAS Hydrologic Engineering Centre – River Analysis System HIS Hydrological Information System HMSS Hydro-Meteorological Service of Serbia
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin vi
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
HMZ Hydro meteorological Institute HPP Hydropower Plant HS Hydrological Station IAWD International Association of Waterworks in the Danube Catchment Area IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development ICPDR International Commission for the Protection of the Danube River IMO International Meteorological Organization INC Initial National Communication INDC Intended Nationally Determined Contribution IPCC Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change IPF Investment Prioritisation Framework ISRBC International Sava River Basin Commission IWRM Integrated Water Resources Management JCI Jaroslav Černi Institute JV Joint Venture KM Convertible Marks LEP Law on Environmental Protection LW Law on Waters LWM Law on Waste Management LWP Law on Water Protection MAEP Ministry of Agriculture and Environmental Protection - Serbia MAFWM Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Water Management (RS BiH) MARD Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development - Montenegro MAWRMF Ministry of Agriculture, Water Resources Management and Forestry – RS BiH MCH Meteorological, Climatological and Hydrological database MCT Ministry of Communications and Transport MET Ministry of Environment and Tourism MH Ministry of Health MIA Ministry of Internal Affairs MIEM Ministry of Industry Energy and Mining (RS) MME Ministry of Mining and Energy MNE Montenegro MOFTER Ministry of Free Trade and Economic Relations (BiH) MoU Memorandum of Understanding MS Meteorological Station NAMA Nationally Appropriate Mitigation Actions NGO Non-Government Organisation NRW Non-Revenue Water O&M Operation and Maintenance OECD Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development OG Official Gazette PE Public Enterprise PSHPP Pumped Storage Hydropower Plant (reversible HPP) PUC Public Utility Company Q Discharge RBMP River Basin Management Plan RCM Regional Climate Model RCP Representative Concentration Pathways REC Regional Environmental Centre
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin vii
ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS
RES Renewable Energy Sources RS Republic Srpska SAA Stabilisation and Association Agreement SEA Strategic Environmental Assessment SEI Stockholm Environment Institute SHPP Small (mini) Hydropower Plant SNC Second National Communication SO2 Sulphur Dioxide SOx Sulphur Oxides SRB Sava River Basin SRO Science Research Organisation TNC Third National Communication TPP Thermal Power Plant TOR Terms of Reference UN United Nations UNDP United Nations Development Program UNECE United Nations Economic Commission for Europe UNEP United Nations Environment Program UNESCO United Nations Educational Scientific and Cultural Organisation UNESCO-IHE UNESCO – Institute for Water Education UNFCCC United Nations Framework Convention for Climate Change USA United States of America USD United States Dollar WAAC Water Area Advisory Council WAC Water Area Council WATCAP Water and Climate Adaptation Plan WB World Bank WBIF Western Balkans Investment Framework WD Water Directorate WEAP Water Evaluation and Planning System by SEI WFD Water Framework Directive WISKI Water Information Systems KISTERS WMO World Meteorological Organisation WMR Water Management Region WQI Water Quality Index WRMP Water Resources Master Plan WWTP Wastewater Treatment Plan
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 1-1
1 Annex 1 – Supporting Introduction Chapter 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 1-2
2 Annex 2 Supporting Setting core water management development targets – key objectives Chapter 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-3
3 Annex 3 – Supporting Inventory of Changes for DRB development Chapter 3
3.1 Annex 3-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 3-3 Financing and its influence on priorities
Explanation of financial and economic indicators
The following financial and economic indicators were considered for inclusion in the CBA:
▪ Financial Net Present Value (FPNV)
▪ Financial Internal Rate of Return (FIRR)
▪ Economic Net Present Value (ENPV)
▪ Economic Internal Rate of Return (EIRR)
▪ Benefit Cost Ratio (BCR)
▪ Average incremental cost (AIC).
Net Present Value
The Net Present Value (NPV) of a project is defined as the value obtained from discounting, given a fixed discount rate and a net cash flow balance (project-related revenues minus project-related expenditures) for each year of the life of the project (or evaluation period). Project-related costs include investment costs, as well as annual operating costs. The NPV is calculated using the next equation:
1
(1 )
N
n nn
NPV NCFn
where:
NCFn (net cash flow) – the annual net cash balance for the given year of analysis (n=1, 2, 3, … N),i – discount rate in per cent.
The difference between the financial and economic net present value is the cash flow used in the equation. The former refers to the net cash flow from the perspective of the investor or the investment itself. For example, a hydropower plant generates revenues from the sale of power, as well as investment and operating costs. The examination of net cash flow is internal to the hydropower company. In economic net present value, on the other hand, the net cash flow refers both to the revenues and costs of the power company, but also the wider costs and benefits that society as a whole bears as a result of the investment.
For a private investor, the financial net present value should always be greater than zero in order for the project to be worth the investment. For society as a whole, the economic net present value should be greater than zero in order for the project to be worth the investment.
Internal Rate of Return
The Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate at which the Net Present Value is equal to zero, as shown in the following equation:
1
(1 )
N
n nn
IRR NCFIRR
,
where:
NCFn (net cash flow) – the annual net cash balance for the given year of analysis (n=1, 2, 3, … N), i - discount rate in per cent.
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-4
Analogous to net present value, there is a financial and economic internal rate of return. For a private in- vestor, the financial internal rate of return should always be greater than the discount rate (often equal to the prevailing commercial interest rate). For society as a whole, the economic internal rate of return should be greater than the social discount rate (often lower than the prevailing commercial interest rate in order to emphasise the importance to the project for society as a whole).
Financial sustainability
Financial viability means that the financial net present value (FNPV) should be positive and the financial internal rate of return (FIRR) should be positive and higher than the discount rate (usually equal to the pre- vailing rate of interest). Projects with a high FNPV and FIRR are deemed commercial and can be financed from commercial sources.
In cost-benefit analysis (CBA), the financial indicators are modified to include social benefits and costs that affect society as a whole. CBA is also an important evaluation tool since many projects that should be implemented are not financially viable. These include many public investments or other projects that are socially important. Such projects should be economically viable, which means that the economic net pre- sent value (ENPV) is positive and the economic rate of return (EIRR) is positive and exceeds the social discount rate. In addition, the discounted total sum of social benefits must exceed the discounted total sum of social costs; that is, the benefit-cost ratio must exceed 1. If these conditions are not met, the project as defined should not be implemented.
Financial sustainability for a public-sector type project - for example, involving the construction of a hy- dropower station with seasonal or year-round water flow regulation - means that the project will generate a positive net cash flow over its lifetime. Typically, this net cash flow is generated from user charges from the sale of electricity. If user charges are insufficient to cover operating costs, these costs must be covered from other sources, such as the national or entity budget. If a project is not sustainable - i.e., with a negative net cash flow that cannot be covered by any means - its benefits will not occur or cease after a certain peri- od and the money invested will not be recovered.
Average Incremental Cost (AIC)
The average incremental cost (AIC) shows what investment cost is required to obtain a unit of project effect. For energy and electricity, the AIC is the levelised cost of energy (LCOE). This cost is expressed in currency per unit of effect. AIC is a type of dynamic unit cost analysis that requires that an investment be described both in terms of its implementation and operation. This allows for the differences in projects’ operating costs, useful life, and effects over time to be captured. Well-known in economics and finance, this dynamic view takes into account changes in the value of money over time and the costs and revenues obtained in various years are reduced to a “common denominator” using discounting methods. The AIC is calculated according to the following equation:
0
0
(1 )
(1 )
t nt t
tt
t nt
tt
IC OC
iAIC
EE
i
,
where:
ICt - investment cost in year t, OCt - operating cost in year t, i - discount rate in per cent, t - year of analysis, EE - environmental effect, which can include any effect or output of the investment (such as power produced, water storage provided, etc.).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-5
In the case of multi-purpose water resource development projects, such indicators could be: EUR/KWh (or EUR/GWh) for power production, Mm3 for storage capacity, and m3/s for guaranteed flow. For the EUR/KWh indicator, the above formula provides the levelised cost of energy (LCOE).
The information the resulting unit cost provides is robust because it takes into account the operating and rehabilitation costs – as well as production of effect (electricity, storage capacity, etc.) over the useful life- time of the project. Society will ultimately pay for the water resource development projects that meet de- velopment objectives. Therefore, if a group of projects is considered in which all produce a similar effect (e.g., amount of electricity generated or amount of water storage capacity), all other factors being equal, priority should be given to investments that have the lowest AIC indicator.
Benefit-Cost Ratio
The Benefit-Cost Ratio (BCR) is simply the ratio of social benefits to social costs.
As mentioned above, the discounted total sum of social benefits must exceed the discounted total sum of social costs; that is, the benefit-cost ratio must exceed 1. If these conditions are not met, the project as de- fined should not be implemented. In general, the project or development option that generates the highest net benefits (provided the BCR is greater than 1) should be preferred.
HPP Investment and Operation Costs per scenarios
Table 3-1: HPP Investment Costs (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)
No
Name of HPP/SHP
P River
Country
Civil works
HME ME EE Investor Expence
s
Working
Capital TOTAL
1 Komarnica
Piva/Komarnica
MNE 249,120,
106 8,200,0
00 15,000,
000 12,300,
000 34,154,
413 3,187,7
45 321,962,
264
2 Otilovici Cehotina MNE 704,608 455,000 1,001,0
00 910,400 452,196 35,232
3,558,436
3 Krusevo Piva RS/FBiH
80,055,032
13,200,000
24,000,000
20,000,000
26,815,650
1,640,707
165,711,389
4 Lukin Vir Lim MNE 25,115,4
60 2,600,0
00 4,700,0
00 3,900,0
00 7,263,0
92 435,78
6 44,014,3
38
5 Andrijevica
Lim MNE 40,511,4
00 5,100,0
00 9,350,0
00 7,650,0
00 18,783,
420 813,94
8 82,208,7
68
TOTAL Scenario 2 491,232,
089
TOTAL Scenario 3 617,455,
195
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-6
Financial Analysis - MNE Scenario 2 Unit Overall 1 2 3 4 5
Total HPPs
Total Investment Costs Constant EUR 491,232,089 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 0
Investment costs Constant EUR 491,232,089 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 0
Total Operation Costs Constant EUR 353,851,595 0 0 0 0 13,609,677
Fixed operation costs Constant EUR 333,030,094 0 0 0 0 12,808,850
Maintenance costs Constant EUR 57,208,047 0 0 0 0 2,200,310
Insurance costs Constant EUR 18,463,779 0 0 0 0 710,145
Personnel gross salaries Constant EUR 7,800,000 0 0 0 0 300,000
Tangible costs Constant EUR 1,950,000 0 0 0 0 75,000
Intangible costs Constant EUR 1,170,000 0 0 0 0 45,000
Depreciation Constant EUR 246,438,268 0 0 0 0 9,478,395
Variable operation costs Constant EUR 20,821,501 0 0 0 0 800,827
Water fee Constant EUR 1,299,038 0 0 0 0 49,963
Concession fee Constant EUR 14,641,847 0 0 0 0 563,148
Other fees Constant EUR 4,880,616 0 0 0 0 187,716
Installed capacity MW 0 0 0 0 291
Electricity generation per year GWh 0 0 0 0 500
Storage capacity Mm3 0 0 0 0 191
Investment costs per kW of installed power EUR/kW 1,686.634
Investment costs per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.983
Investment costs per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 2,571,896
Operation costs w/o depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 14.18
Operation costs w/o depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.008
Operation costs w/o depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 21,629.75
Operation costs including depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 46.73
Operation costs including depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.027
Operation costs including depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 71,254.85
Total costs over analyzed project period EUR 598,645,415 125,465,518 100,638,095 146,041,755 119,086,721 4,131,282
Total revenues EUR 455,046,516 0 0 0 0 17,501,789
Cash flow EUR -143,598,899 -125,465,518 -100,638,095 -146,041,755 -119,086,721 13,370,507
Levelized cost of power generation capacity 170.41 EUR/kW FNPV -286,634,590
Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) / Dynamic prime cost (DPC) 0.0993 EUR/kWh FIRR 0.93%
Dynamic generation cost of water storage capacity 259,847.23 EUR/Mm3
Figure 3-1 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-7
Financial Analysis - MNE Scenario 3 Unit Overall 1 2 3 4 5
Total HPPs
Total Investment Costs Constant EUR 617,455,195 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 0
Investment costs Constant EUR 617,455,195 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 0
Total Operation Costs Constant EUR 448,017,285 0 0 0 0 17,231,434
Fixed operation costs Constant EUR 419,736,167 0 0 0 0 16,143,699
Maintenance costs Constant EUR 72,703,892 0 0 0 0 2,796,304
Insurance costs Constant EUR 23,633,277 0 0 0 0 908,972
Personnel gross salaries Constant EUR 11,856,000 0 0 0 0 456,000
Tangible costs Constant EUR 2,964,000 0 0 0 0 114,000
Intangible costs Constant EUR 1,778,400 0 0 0 0 68,400
Depreciation Constant EUR 306,800,598 0 0 0 0 11,800,023
Variable operation costs Constant EUR 28,281,118 0 0 0 0 1,087,735
Water fee Constant EUR 1,764,438 0 0 0 0 67,863
Concession fee Constant EUR 19,887,510 0 0 0 0 764,904
Other fees Constant EUR 6,629,170 0 0 0 0 254,968
Installed capacity MW 0 0 0 0 356
Electricity generation per year GWh 0 0 0 0 679
Storage capacity Mm3 0 0 0 0 285
Investment costs per kW of installed power EUR/kW 1,736.620
Investment costs per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.910
Investment costs per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 2,166,509
Operation costs w/o depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 15.28
Operation costs w/o depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.008
Operation costs w/o depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 19,057.58
Operation costs including depreciation per kW of installed power EUR/kW 48.46
Operation costs including depreciation per kWh of generated electricity EUR/kWh 0.025
Operation costs including depreciation per Mm3 of storage capacity EUR/Mm3 60,461.17
Total costs over analyzed project period EUR 758,671,881 160,104,791 126,358,118 183,671,927 147,320,359 5,431,411
Total revenues EUR 618,073,809 0 0 0 0 23,772,070
Cash flow EUR -140,598,072 -160,104,791 -126,358,118 -183,671,927 -147,320,359 18,340,659
Levelized cost of power generation capacity 176.27 EUR/kW FNPV -347,042,878
Levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) / Dynamic prime cost (DPC) 0.0924 EUR/kWh FIRR 1.32%
Dynamic generation cost of water storage capacity 219,902.81 EUR/Mm3
Figure 3-2 HPP Operation Costs Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-8
3.2 Annex 3-2: Overall impact assessment matrix
Table 3-2: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase
Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
Geo
logy
an
d
soils
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
Clim
ate
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Air
qu
alit
y
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Small negative
Hyd
rolo
gy HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
Hyd
rau
lic
(reg
im o
f
rive
r)
HPP, "Komarnica" High Minor negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High Minor negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" High Minor negative Medium negative
Qu
alit
y o
f
surf
ace
wat
er
HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Qu
alit
y o
f
gro
un
dw
ater
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
Terr
estr
ial
Veg
etat
ion
and
re
late
d
hab
itat
s
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Minor negative Small negative
Mig
rati
on
corr
ido
rs HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Medium negative
Terr
estr
ial
Fau
na
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-9
Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance A
lluvi
al
eco
syst
em
s HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Medium negative
Aq
uat
ic
eco
syst
em
s HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
Co
nse
rvat
ion
Are
as
HPP, "Kormarnica" Low High negative High negative
HPP, "Krusevo" High Medium negative High negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Lan
dsc
ape
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Minor negative Small negative
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-10
Table 3-3: Social - Without mitigation measures – Construction phase
Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
Po
pu
lati
on
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Agr
icu
ltu
re HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Fore
stry
HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Medium negative Medium negative
Fish
ing/
Hu
nti
ng HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Infr
astr
uct
ure
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Ener
gy
sou
rce/
use
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Hea
lth
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Edu
cati
on
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Eth
nic
ity/
cult
ure
HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-11
Construction Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
Vis
ual
asp
ect
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Minor negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Cu
ltu
re
her
itag
e/to
uri
sm
HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-12
Table 3-4: Environment - Without mitigation measures – Operation phase
Operation Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
Geo
logy
an
d
soils
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Medium negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
Clim
ate
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
Air
qu
alit
y
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Negligible Insignificant
Hyd
rolo
gy
HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Medium positive Medium positive
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium positive Medium positive
Hyd
rau
lic (
regi
m
of
rive
r)
HPP, "Komarnica" High Medium negative High negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High Medium negative High negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" High Medium negative High negative
Qu
alit
y o
f
surf
ace
wat
er HPP, "Komarnica" Low Moderate negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligible Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Minor negative Small negative
Qu
alit
y o
f
un
der
gro
un
d
wat
er
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligible Minor negative Insignificant
Terr
estr
ial
Veg
etat
ion
an
d
rela
ted
hab
itat
s HPP, "Komarnica" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Mig
rati
on
corr
ido
rs
HPP, "Kormarnica" High High negative Very high negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium High negative High negative
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-13
Operation Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High High negative Very high negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" High High negative Very high negative
Terr
estr
ial F
aun
a HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium High negative High negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Allu
vial
eco
syst
em
s
HPP, "Kormarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Minor negative Medium negative Medium negative
Aq
uat
ic
eco
syst
em
s
HPP, "Kormarnica" High High negative Very high negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Minor negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" High Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" High High negative Very high negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" High High negative Very high negative
Co
nse
rvat
ion
Are
as
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium High negative High negative
HPP, "Krusevo" High negative Minor negative High negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Lan
dsc
ape
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Medium Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-14
Table 3-5: Social - Without mitigation measures –Operation phase
Operation Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
Po
pu
lati
on
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Minor positive Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor positive Small positive
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor positive Small positive
Agr
icu
ltu
re HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Fore
stry
HPP, "Komarnica" Medium Negligable Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Medium Negligable Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Medium Negligable Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Medium Negligable Small negative
Fish
ing/
Hu
nti
ng HPP, "Komarnica" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Negligable Negligable
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Infr
astr
uct
ure
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Small positive Small positive
Ener
gy
sou
rce/
use
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Low Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Small positive Small positive
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Hea
lth
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Edu
cati
on
HPP, "Komarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Eth
nic
ity/
cult
ure
HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 3-15
Operation Location Receptor vulnerability Magnitude of Impact Overall significance
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
Vis
ual
asp
ect
HPP, "Kormarnica" Medium Medium negative Medium negative
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Andrijevica" Low Minor negative Small negative
Cu
ltu
re
her
itag
e/to
uri
sm
HPP, "Kormarnica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Krusevo" Low Minor negative Small negative
HPP, "Otilovici" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
HPP, "Andrijevica" Negligable Negligable Insignificant
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 4-16
4 Annex 4 – Supporting Water management development options Chapter 4
4.1 Annex 4-1: Supporting Sub-chapter 4-4 Monitoring
Section 4.4 of the main part of the Report provides a list of proposals regarding the improvement of the existing hydrologic and meteorological stations, as well as the list of proposals regarding the establishment of new ones. In most cases was it was not possible to define stations' micro-locations more precisely, as it would require detailed analyses of terrain accessibility, GSM signal intensity etc.
For this reason, some alternative locations for a certain number of meteorological stations, in addition to the locations given in the main part of the Report, are provided in the following text. Locations were also assigned with priority marks.
New meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin
Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.
Table 4-1: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Lim River Basin
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation
(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates
Priority
L1a Komovi mountain
north-eastern part
EKO Hut Štavna 1,710 N 42.712388 E 19.682786
1
L1b Komovi mountain
north-eastern part
Božićki hut 1,730 N 42.715404 E 19.658185
1
L1c Komovi mountain
north-eastern part
Vulića hut 1,740 N 42.706534 E 19.678623
1
L3b Prokletije Mountain
Prokletije Mountain, to the north-east of
Grebaje 1,530
N 42.535749 E 19.767254
1
L3c Prokletije Mountain
Alternatively: to the west of Volušnica
Mountain, Popadija Mountain and
Talijanka Mountain slopes
1,600 to 1,900 1
L3d Prokletije Mountain
Alternatively: Prokletije Mountain south-eastern slopes
1,600 to 2,100 1
L4a Prokletije Mountain
Zaston, former SFRY and Montenegro
border post 1,350
N 42.489489 E 19.815823
1
L4b Prokletije Mountain
Alternatively: on part of Prokletije
Mountain western and south-western
slopes - Maja, Jezerce
1,600 to 2,200
1
L4c Prokletije Alternatively, more to the north:
1,630 N 42.530654 E 19.813214
1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 4-17
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation
(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates
Priority
Vezirova brada hut
L4d Prokletije Alternatively: Savino oko, Oko Skakavice
1,035 N 42.511922 E 19.834820
1
L4e Prokletije Alternatively: Ponor, Grlje waterfall
990 N 42.522955 E 19.841975
2
L5a Prokletije Greben hut -Lipovica Mountain, above Grnčar, neat the
southern slope top
1,800 N 42.593576 E 19.809310
1
L5b Prokletije Čardak hut -Lipovica, above Zagrađe Village, south-eastern slope
1,800 N 42.592628 E 19.844326
1
L5c Prokletije Alternatively: Gusinje 1,035
N 42.511922 E 19.834820
2
L5d Prokletije Alternatively: Vusanje
950 N 42.529854 E 19.838812
2
Locations in the north-eastern part of Komovi mountain are placed on the Vasojevićki Kom Mountain northern slope. They belong to the Lim River Basin, but in their immediate vicinity is also the Tara River and Lim River basins' watershed, as well as tourist facilities.
New meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin
Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.
Table 4-2: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Tara River Basin
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation
(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates
Priority
T1 Komovi Mountain
southern part
St. Ilija church on Carine (on Tara
River and Lim River basins' watershed)
1,770 N 42.645340 E 19.643440
1
T2a
Komovi Mountain south-western part:
Veruša, Mokra, Maglić
Above Veruša 1,615 N 42.652846 E
19.545727 1
T2b
Komovi Mountain south-western part:
Veruša, Mokra, Maglić
Alternatively: Maglić hut
1,790 N 42.637545 E
19.565353 1
T2c
Komovi Mountain south-western part:
Veruša, Mokra, Maglić
Alternatively: Mokra
1,500 N 42.604654 E
19.571917 2
T2d
Komovi Mountain south-western part:
Veruša, Mokra, Maglić
Alternatively: Veruša
1,200 N 42.648847 E
19.517984 2
T3a Komovi Mountain south-western and
southern slopes Lazovića hut 1,670
N 42.671260 E 19.605272
2
T3b Komovi Mountain Alternatively: 1,680 N 42.671900 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 4-18
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation
(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates
Priority
south-western and southern slopes
Klopočki hut E 19.602208
T3c Komovi Mountain south-western and
southern slopes
Alternatively: Pelevski hut
1,680 N 42.672864 E 19.600173
2
T3d Komovi Mountain south-western and
southern slopes
Alternatively: Velja Ćura hut
1,670 N 42.657036 E 19.616953
2
T4a Komovi Mountain
western part Alternatively: Margarita hut
1,720 N 42.693333 E 19.609022
2
T4b Komovi Mountain
western part Alternatively: Slana
Rupa hut 1,800
N 42.697671 E 19.614068
2
T4c Komovi Mountain
western part Alternatively: Velja
Rupa hut 1,730
N 42.704054 E 19.608696
2
T5a
Part of Komovi Mountain south-
western and southern slopes
Bijele Vode hut, close to Tara River
source 1,670
N 42.639644 E 19.633749
2
T5b
Part of Komovi Mountain south-
western and southern slopes
Alternatively: Savovića hut, on
Tara River and Lim River basins' watershed
1,720 N 42.636359 E 19.622055
2
T5c
Part of Komovi Mountain south-
western and southern slopes
Alternatively: Vujadinovića hut, on Tara River and Lim River basins'
watershed
1,715 N 42.632536 E 19.622829
2
T6a Komovi Mountain
(Kučki Kom) northern slopes
Martinovića hut 1,700 N 42.700179 E 19.655384
2
T6b Komovi Mountain
(Kučki Kom) northern slopes
Novovića hut 1,700 N 42.701731 E 19.656451
2
T6c Komovi Mountain
(Kučki Kom) northern slopes
Labovića hut 1,770 N 42.705720 E 19.654840
2
T6d Komovi Mountain
(Kučki Kom) northern slopes
Valjevski Laz hut 1,700 N 42.705795 E 19.649258
2
T7 Međukomlje
Alternatively: plateau between
Kučki Kom Montain and
Vasojevićki Kom Mountain -
northern slope. In vicinity is Lim River
and Tara River basins' watershed
2,000 3
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 4-19
Huts at the south-western slopes of Komovi Mountain are favorable locations, because they are very close to each other and there are several structures. They are accessible by road.
Priority is at least one "high-elevation" station at the mountain massive of Maglić Mountain, Veruša Mountain, Mokra Mountain and/or Komovi Mountain, to be established at elevation above 1,500 m a.s.l.
Note: For estimation of snow cover thickness should be used data from ski centers in Kolašin and Bjelasica (up to 1,950 m a.s.l.) and Žabljak-Savin Kuk (up to 2,200 m a.s.l.).
New meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin
Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.
Table 4-3: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Piva River Basin
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation
(m a.s.l.) Geographical coordinates
Priority
P1a Gornja Bijela 1 At mountain slopes
above Bijela 1,640
N 42.882607° E 19.176536°
1
P1b Gornja Bijela 2 At mountain slopes
above Bijele 1,715
N 42.865951°
E 19.176716° 1
P2a Bioč 1 Bioč Mountain southern slope
1,166 N 43.173285°
E 18.772391° 1
P2b Bioč 2 Bioč Mountain southern slope
1,111 N 43.173674°
E 18.796159° 1
P3a Gornja Bijela Close to the
hydrologic station 1,050
N 42.903691°
E 19.151857° 2
P3b Timar
Close to the hydrologic station or close to the St. Georgije church
1,160
N 42.976639°
E 19.189768° 2
New meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin
Potential locations of new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin with alternatives are given in the following table.
Table 4-4: Proposed new meteorological stations in the Ćehotina River Basin
Station label Region Micro-location Elevation (m a.s.l.)
Geographical coordinates
Priority
C1a Stožer 1,370 N 43.121247° E 19.518472°
1
C1b Stožer-Ponikvice Ponikvice 1,310 N 43.147718° E 19.526791°
1
C1c Stožer-Bliskovo Bliskovo 1,200 N 43.153569° E 19.539270°
1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-20
5 Annex 5 – Supporting Modelling the impacts of development options on Water balance Chapter
5.1 Annex 5-1 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-2 Influence of climate change on hydrology
Figure 5-1: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM1 climate parameter seta – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-21
Figure 5-2: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM1 climate parameters set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-22
Figure 5-3: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the climate CM2 parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-23
Figure 5-4: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM2 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-24
Figure 5-5: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM3 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-25
Figure 5-6: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM3 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-26
Figure 5-7: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM4 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-27
Figure 5-8: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM4 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-28
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
1961-1990
Radalj
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2011-2040
Radalj
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2041-2070
Radalj
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
1961-1990
Bajina Bašta
0
100
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800
900
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2011-2040
Bajina Bašta
0
200
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600
800
1000
1200
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2041-2070
Bajina Bašta
0
50
100
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300
350
400
450
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
1961-1990
Foča Most
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50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2011-2040
Foča Most
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100
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300
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500
600
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2041-2070
Foča Most
0
50
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250
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
1961-1990
Prijepolje
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250
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2011-2040
Prijepolje
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50
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300
DJF MAM JJA SON ANN
Q
(m3/s
)
2041-2070
Prijepolje
Figure 5-9: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-29
Figure 5-10: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM5 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-30
Figure 5-11: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM6 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-31
Figure 5-12: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM6 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-32
Figure 5-13: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM7 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-33
Figure 5-14: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM7 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-34
Figure 5-15: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations in accordance with the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 1
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-35
Figure 5-16: Long-term mean annual (ANN) and mean seasonal projections for analyzed hydrologic stations according to the CM8 climate parameter set – Part 2
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-36
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
Rad
alj
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ina
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a
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v
Š.P
olj
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a
Š. Polj
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ara
Vik
oč
Δ(%
)CM1 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
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Rad
alj
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Piv
a
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Po
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a
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oč
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)
CM2 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
-16
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-6
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0
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Rad
alj
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ost
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v
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)
CM3 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
-8
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-2
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Rad
alj
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ina
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a
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ost
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v
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a
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oč
Δ(%
)
CM4 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
-25
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-5
0
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alj
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ina
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a
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v
Š.P
olj
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ara
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oč
Δ(%
)
CM5 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
0
2
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6
8
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14
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18
Rad
alj
Baj
ina
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šta
Fo
ča M
ost
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e
Pla
v
Š.P
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e -
Piv
a
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Po
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a
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oč
Δ(%
)
CM6 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
Rad
alj
Baj
ina
Ba
šta
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ča M
ost
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v
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM7 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
-16
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-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
Rad
alj
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ina
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a
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Pri
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e
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v
Š.P
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e -
Piv
a
Š. Polj
e-T
ara
Vik
oč
Δ(%
)
CM8 - ANN 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-17: Relative changes (Δ) of mean annual discharges (ANN) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-37
-5
0
5
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20
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35
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45
50
Rad
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a
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e
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v
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a
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ara
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oč
Δ(%
)
CM1-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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80
90
Rad
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ina
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v
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM2-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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120
Rad
alj
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ina
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šta
Fo
ča M
ost
Pri
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Pla
v
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olj
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a
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM3-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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Rad
alj
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ina
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Fo
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v
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olj
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a
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM4-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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v
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM5-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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alj
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ina
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a
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v
Š.P
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a
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ara
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Δ(%
)
CM6-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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alj
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ina
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a
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v
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olj
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a
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ara
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Δ(%
)
CM7-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
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alj
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a
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Pri
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v
Š.P
olj
e -
Piv
a
Š. Polj
e-T
ara
Vik
oč
Δ(%
)
CM8-DJF 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-18: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of winter season (DJF) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-38
-35
-30
-25
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-15
-10
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0
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ina
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a
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v
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a
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)
CM1-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
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-5
0
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ina
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a
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)
CM3-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
-6
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)
CM4-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
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0
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)
CM5-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
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)
CM6-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM7-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
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-2
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4
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a
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a
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Δ(%
)
CM8-MAM 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-19: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of spring season (MAM) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-39
-60
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-10
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10
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CM1-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM2-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM3-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM4-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM5-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM6-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM7-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM8-JJA 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-20: Relative changes (Δ) of mean discharges in the course of summer season (JJA) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-40
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CM1-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM2-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM3-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM4-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM5-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM6-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM7-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM8-SON 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-21: Relative changes (Δ) of mean proticaja in the course of autumn season (SON) during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-41
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)CM1 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM2 2011-2040 2041-2070
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CM8 2011-2040 2041-2070
Figure 5-22: Relative changes (Δ) of higher mean annual proticaja with exceedance probability of 10% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-42
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Figure 5-23: Relative changes (Δ) of lower mean annual discharges with exceedance probability of 90% during the periods of near (from 2011 to 2040) and distant future (from 2041 to 2070) for analyzed hydrologic stations and used climate data sets (CM1 to CM8).
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-43
5.2 Annex 5-2 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-3 Water resources system modelling
Table 5-1 Existing HPPs
Environmental Flow (m3/s)
Concession
Country Planned HPP River
RS-BiH HPP "Visegrad" Drina 50
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Bajina Basta" Drina 50
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Zvornik" Drina 60
MNE HPP, "Piva" Piva 25
MNE HPP, "Otilovici" Cehotina 0.8
S HPP, "Uvac "("Sjenica") Uvac 0
S HPP, "Kokin Brod" Uvac 0
S HPP, "Radoinja-Bistrica" Uvac 14
S HPP, "Potpec" Lim 13.9
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-1
Technical document RS-BiH reg. Serbia reg.
Country Planned HPP River All the year May to October (a) November to April (b) All the year Jan. Fev March April May June Jully Aug. Sept. Oct Nov. Dec.
RS-BiH HPP "Buk Bijela" ("low") Drina 24.4 24.4 16.5 24.5 16.5
RS-BiH HPP, "Foca" ("niska") Drina 27 27 18 27 18
RS-BiH HPP, "Paunci" Drina 30.2 30.2 20 30.5 20
FBIH HPP, "Ustikolina" Drina 38a - 58b 33 38 58 20
FBIH HPP, "Gorazde" Drina - 45 21.5 32 21.5
RS-BIH / S HPP, "Rogacica" Drina 60.5 60.5 33.5 50 33.5
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Tegare" Drina 61.6 61.6 33.5 50 33.5
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Dubravica" Drina 63.8 63.8 34 51 34
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Kozluk" Drina - 57.5 37 55 37
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina I" Drina - 57.5 37 55 37
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina II" Drina - 60 37.5 56 37.5
RS-BiH/S HPP, "Drina III" Drina - 60 37.5 56.5 37.5
RS-BiH HPP, "Sutjeska" Sutjeska 2.07 2.07
MNE HPP, "Otilovici" Cehotina 0.8 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27 1.27
RS-BIH/MNE HPP "Vikoc (Luke)" Cehotina 2.11 2.5 - - - - - - - - - - - -
RS-BIH HPP, "Falovici" Cehotina 2.58 2.58 - - - - - - - - - - - -
MNE HPP, "Kormarnica" Piva - 1.82 1.82 1.82 5.8 6.04 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 1.82 4.82 1.82
MNE HPP, "Krusevo" Piva - 12.7 12.7 12.7 29.2 30.2 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7 12.7
MNE HPP, "Andrijevica" Lim 3.9 2.8 1.8 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 8.15 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57 3.57
MNE HPP, "Lukin-Vir" Lim 4.9 9.2 3.7 - - - - - - - - - - - -
S HPP, "Brodevaro I" Lim 10.4 10.1 6.9 10.4 10.4 10.4 25.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
S HPP, "Brodevaro II" Lim 10.4 10.1 6.9 10.4 10.4 10.4 25.2 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4 10.4
S HPP, "Rekovici" Lim 13.9 18.2 9.2 - - - - - - - - - - - -
RS-BIH HPP, "Mrsovo" Lim 31.3 - - - - - - - - - - - - -
Minimal environmental Flow (m3/s)
MNE reg.FBiH reg.
Figure 5-24 Planned HPPs :in red the values proposed for an harmonized EF over the DRB (- no data)
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-1
5.3 Annex 5-3 Supporting Sub-chapter 5-4 Flood risk assessment
Impact of climate change on flood flows of Lower Drina River
The impact of climate change on flood flows in the lower Drina Basin is estimated by considering change in flood flows at the Radalj hydrologic station, which is the only operational station in this part of the Drina River. The data on annual maximum flood flows of Drina at Radalj is available for the period 1950-2015, with few years missing from the record. The greatest flood flow of 5370 m3/s was recorded in 1968. Figure 5-25 shows the frequency distribution of the annual maximum floods at Radalj estimated from the full available record. The same figure also shows the frequency distribution of the annual maximum floods from the baseline period (1961-1990), which is estimated from 28 available annual maxima from this period (data from two years were missing). It must be noted that uncertainty stemming from frequency analysis of such a short record could be considerable. The baseline distribution has steeper upper tail than the full-record distribution; for example, the 100-year flood estimated from the full record is 5470 m3/s, while it is estimated at 6020 m3/s from the baseline period (which makes a difference of about 10%). Figure 1 also shows the 90% confidence interval for the general extreme value (GEV) distribution (shown as grey area in the figure). Flood frequency distribution from the baseline period is within the confidence interval so the difference between two distributions could be considered as the sampling error.
Figure 5-25. Flood frequency distribution of floods at Radalj for the baseline period compared to the distribution obtained from the complete record.
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-2
Figure 5-26. Flood frequency distributions for baseline period and two future periods under two climate scenarios (left graphs: RCP 4.5, right graphs: RCP 8.5).
In order to use the results of hydrologic simulations with climate scenarios (described in Chapter 5.2), it is necessary to verify the hydrologic model outputs against the observed floods for the baseline period. Two top graphs in Figure 5-26 provide the comparison of the frequency distributions of the observed and simulated floods for the baseline period according to hydrologic simulations with input from four climate models under climate scenarios RCP 4.5 (left graph) and RCP 8.5 (right graph). These graphs also show also the 90% confidence intervals for the distribution of the annual maximum floods from the complete record
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-3
1950-2015. Climate simulations under the two climate scenarios give the same results for the historical period 1961-1990, hence resulting in the same hydrologic simulations, and therefore the two graphs do not differ. The comparison for the baseline period shows that hydrologic simulations with input from all climate models except one (model 2) provide annual maximum floods within the given confidence interval. However, none of the models provide extreme floods as the greatest flood on the record, and the frequency distribution of the simulated annual maxima cannot yield the 100-yr flood close enough to the observed one (Table 5-2). Therefore, the frequency analysis of the simulated annual maxima from the 30-year baseline period cannot be considered reliable for quantifying the impact of climate change on the lower Drina flood flows.
Table 5-2. 100-year flood flows of Drina at Radalj hydrologic station – comparison of estimates based on the observed and simulated hydrology.
Annual maxima series Period Sample size 100-yr flood (m3/s)
Observed 1950-2015 62* 5470 Observed 1961-1990 28** 6020 Simulated with climate model 1 1961-1990 29*** 4508 Simulated with climate model 2 1961-1990 29*** 5113 Simulated with climate model 3 1961-1990 29*** 3919 Simulated with climate model 4 1961-1990 29*** 5195 *Missing data: 1962, 1963, 2004, 2005 **Missing data: 1962, 1963 ***Year 1961 (hydrologic model warm-up period) not included
However, Figure 5-26 can provide some indications on the future behaviour of the floods in the lower Drina. The middle and lower graphs in Figure 5-26 show the empirical distributions of floods at Radalj based on four climate models and according to two climate scenarios. The graphs also show the median distribution from the ensemble of climate models (blue lines). In climate change impact studies the ensemble median (or mean) results are considered more reliable than any of the individual result (IPCC, 2014). Therefore, based on the position of the ensemble median empirical flood distribution, it could be concluded that more frequent floods could occur in the near future (2011-2040), but their magnitude would not exceed the flood magnitudes already experienced during the historical period. Also, uncertainty inherent in the climate model ensemble is rather low as all models are producing very similar empirical distributions of annual maximum floods. The ensemble median distribution of floods for the distant future (2041-2070) under RCP 4.5 exhibits similar behaviour like in the near future, but the upper tail of the ensemble median distribution under RCP 8.5 exceeds the greatest observed flood. Also, the uncertainty from the individual models in the distant future is greater and some models produce flood values that significantly exceed the greatest observed flood. Fitting standard theoretical distributions to the 30-year series of simulated annual maxima would not provide reliable estimates of 100-year floods and therefore was not performed in order to estimate impact of climate change on the Drina flood flows. Based on the results shown in Figure 2, the following could be concluded:
• The medium floods could become more frequent in both near and distant future. This means that
the e.g. 10-year or 20-year floods would be expected more often, e.g. with frequencies of
approximately 5 or 10 years respectively.
• The extreme floods exceeding the observed greatest floods could occur in the distant future with
the same frequency as estimated from the historical record. The increase in the extreme floods
magnitude is estimated at approximately 5% based on the ensemble median flood distribution.
It should be noted that the results of a comprehensive study of the climate change impacts on floods that was undertaken within the WATCAP project (World Bank, 2015) had shown a small increase of flood
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 5-4
magnitudes for the lower Drina (7% for 2011-2040 and 14% for 2041-2070). As this study was specifically designed to assess the climate change impacts on floods, these results could be used with more confidence than the results stemming from hydrologic simulations within this project, which were designed to support the water management modelling and therefore were focused on maintaining water balance while not considering accuracy of flood flows.
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 6-5
6 Annex 6 – Supporting Multi-criteria analysis of development scenarios Chapter 6
6.1 Annex 6-1 Economic costs and benefits per scenarios
The following tables presents the details of economic costs and benefits.
Figure 6-1 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 2 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)
Economics Analysis - MNE Scenario 2 Unit Overall 1
Benefits due to water supply -
Total population # 146,000
Economic value of water eur/m3 0.4
Water used l/p/d 60
Benefits to irrigation -
Area km2 1697.85
Total potential sale value Eur/m2 1.13
Area with irrigation % 8%
Avoided investment in flood protection Eur/year 0
Avoided damages Eur/year 0
Power Supply Benefits Eur/year 0
Total Benefits Eur/year -
Total Investment 0.88 432,284,238 110,409,656
Total OM costs 180,654,963 0
Net Benefits 864,917,817 110,409,656-
ENPV 131,459,232
EIRR 16.17%
BCR 1.35
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 6-6
Figure 6-2 Economic costs and benefits Scenario 3 (EUR, Constant 2016 prices)
6.2 Annex 6-2 Sensitivity analysis
The following tables constitutes the results of the sensitivity analysis of the Cost-benefit Analysis.
Table 6-1 Scenario 2
Discount rate FNPV ENPV B/C LCOE (EUR/kWh)
4% -206,617,748 358,501,636 1.78 0.0582
5% -238,222,160 293,913,774 1.67 0.0674
6% -260,464,700 241,561,601 1.57 0.0774
7% -275,988,720 198,376,742 1.49 0.0881
8% -286,634,590 162,193,501 1.41 0.0993
9% -293,699,554 131,459,232 1.35 0.1112
10% -298,109,315 105,042,869 1.29 0.1235
11% -300,532,501 82,106,996 1.23 0.1363
12% -301,457,801 62,021,448 1.18 0.1496
Price of electricity FNPV FIRR ENPV EIRR B/C
0.0350 -286,634,590 0.93% 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35
0.0400 -264,479,193 1.69% 150,636,039 16.87% 1.40
Economic Analysis - MNE Scenario 3 Unit Overall 1
Benefits due to water supply -
Total population # 146,000
Economic value of water eur/m3 0.4
Water used l/p/d 60
Benefits to irrigation -
Area km2 1697.85
Total potential sale value Eur/m2 1.13
Area with irrigation % 8%
Avoided investment in flood protection Eur/year 0
Avoided damages Eur/year 0
Power Supply Benefits Eur/year 0
Total Benefits Eur/year -
Total Investment 0.88 543,360,571 140,892,216
Total OM costs 235,581,228 0
Net Benefits 987,348,122 140,892,216-
ENPV 80,470,025
EIRR 12.21%
BCR 1.17
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 6-7
0.0500 -219,905,413 3.03% 189,217,283 18.17% 1.50
0.0600 -175,331,633 4.20% 227,798,527 19.36% 1.60
0.0700 -130,757,853 5.26% 266,379,770 20.46% 1.70
0.0800 -86,184,073 6.25% 304,961,014 21.49% 1.80
0.0900 -41,610,293 7.17% 343,542,258 22.46% 1.90
0.1000 2,963,487 8.06% 382,123,502 23.39% 2.01
0.1100 47,537,267 8.90% 420,704,746 24.27% 2.11
0.1200 92,111,047 9.72% 459,285,990 25.11% 2.21
0.1300 136,684,827 10.51% 497,867,234 25.92% 2.31
0.1400 181,258,607 11.28% 536,448,477 26.71% 2.41
0.1500 225,832,387 12.03% 575,029,721 27.46% 2.51
Investment change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C
0% -286,634,590 0.93% 0.0993 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35
-1% -282,575,414 0.98% 0.0984 134,952,357 16.43% 1.36
-5% -266,338,707 1.16% 0.0948 148,924,861 17.51% 1.41
-10% -246,042,823 1.40% 0.0902 166,390,490 18.97% 1.48
1% -290,693,767 0.89% 0.1002 127,966,106 15.91% 1.33
5% -306,930,474 0.73% 0.1039 113,993,603 14.94% 1.29
10% -327,226,357 0.53% 0.1084 96,527,973 13.80% 1.23
OM change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C
0% -286,634,590 0.93% 0.0993 131,459,232 16.17% 1.35
-1% -285,420,422 0.98% 0.0991 131,762,495 16.18% 1.35
-5% -280,563,751 1.15% 0.0980 132,975,548 16.23% 1.35
-10% -274,492,911 1.36% 0.0966 134,491,864 16.28% 1.36
1% -287,848,758 0.89% 0.0996 131,155,968 16.16% 1.35
5% -292,705,430 0.71% 0.1007 129,942,915 16.11% 1.34
10% -298,776,270 0.48% 0.1021 128,426,599 16.05% 1.34
Table 6-2 Scenario 3
Discount rate FNPV ENPV B/C LCOE (EUR/kWh)
4% -232,563,088 348,210,937 1.60 0.0542
5% -277,164,203 269,978,506 1.49 0.0628
6% -308,875,960 207,598,140 1.39 0.0720
7% -331,326,629 156,994,871 1.31 0.0819
8% -347,042,878 115,301,445 1.23 0.0924
9% -357,806,226 80,470,025 1.17 0.1033
10% -364,888,424 51,015,567 1.11 0.1147
11% -369,208,470 25,844,425 1.06 0.1266
12% -371,438,441 4,138,648 1.01 0.1389
Price of electricity FNPV FIRR ENPV EIRR B/C
0.0350 -347,042,878 1.32% 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17
0.0400 -316,949,975 2.10% 106,517,213 13.06% 1.22
0.0500 -256,406,964 3.47% 158,920,771 14.61% 1.33
0.0600 -195,863,954 4.68% 211,324,329 15.99% 1.44
0.0700 -135,320,944 5.78% 263,727,886 17.26% 1.55
0.0800 -74,777,933 6.81% 316,131,444 18.44% 1.66
0.0900 -14,234,923 7.78% 368,535,002 19.54% 1.77
World Bank Montenegro – IPF Report - Annexes Support to Water Resources Management in the Drina River Basin 6-8
0.1000 46,308,088 8.70% 420,938,559 20.58% 1.88
0.1100 106,851,098 9.59% 473,342,117 21.57% 1.99
0.1200 167,394,109 10.45% 525,745,675 22.51% 2.10
0.1300 227,937,119 11.28% 578,149,232 23.42% 2.21
0.1400 288,480,130 12.08% 630,552,790 24.29% 2.32
0.1500 349,023,140 12.87% 682,956,348 25.13% 2.43
Investment change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C
0% -347,042,878 1.32% 0.0924 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17
-1% -341,936,214 1.36% 0.0915 84,865,027 12.42% 1.18
-5% -321,509,555 1.55% 0.0881 102,445,038 13.31% 1.22
-10% -295,976,233 1.80% 0.0839 124,420,051 14.53% 1.29
1% -352,149,543 1.27% 0.0932 76,075,022 12.00% 1.16
5% -372,576,201 1.10% 0.0966 58,495,012 11.21% 1.12
10% -398,109,524 0.90% 0.1008 36,519,999 10.31% 1.07
OM change FNPV FIRR LCOE (EUR/kWh) ENPV EIRR B/C
0% -347,042,878 1.32% 0.0924 80,470,025 12.21% 1.17
-1% -345,505,600 1.36% 0.0921 80,865,492 12.22% 1.17
-5% -339,356,489 1.52% 0.0911 82,447,361 12.27% 1.17
-10% -331,670,099 1.73% 0.0898 84,424,698 12.34% 1.18
1% -348,580,156 1.28% 0.0926 80,074,558 12.19% 1.17
5% -354,729,268 1.11% 0.0936 78,492,688 12.14% 1.16
10% -362,415,657 0.89% 0.0949 76,515,352 12.07% 1.16