Post on 01-Jan-2016
Strategic Planning for Coastal Flooding and Erosion
Nick HardimanSenior Coastal AdviserEnvironment Agency Strategic Overview
Overview
The scale of the challengeEnvironment Agency coastal strategyManaging for uncertaintyAvoidance and adaptationChallenges for the strategic approach
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The scale of the challenge – sea level rise
12-76cm sea level rise by 2080
Extreme predictions of up to 1.9m by 2100
Wave height changes unclear: Winter mean -35cm to +5cm, annual maxima -1.5m to +1m
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UKCP09 predicts storm surge to be not more than 90mm anywhere in UK – but this is on top of sea-level rise.
Storm surge
50% probability level, central estimate
UKCP02 UKCP09 More intense rainfall contributing to cliff erosion?
Rainfall patterns
Approximately 1.3 million people at coastal flood and erosion risk in England & Wales
About 1 in 25 properties are at risk from sea flooding
About a quarter of the coastline eroding at >10cm/year – but up to almost 2m/yr in some places
740 properties at risk from erosion in next 20 years
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Risk to people and property
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Environment Agency Strategy
Establishes a ‘line of sight’ from national to local strategy
Emphasises local understanding and action
Partnership working – and funding
Sustainable, catchment/coastal cell approach bringing multiple benefits where possible
Shoreline Management Plans (1)
Hold the Line
No Active Intervention
Managed Retreat
Advance the Line
Not development plans, and not statutory
Long-term - set the ‘direction of travel’
Can be challenged, changed and are subject to funding availability
Use consistent data sets informed by local expertise
Intensive public engagement and consultation
Shoreline Management Plans (2)
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Managing for uncertainty
Project design that allows for future adaptation features
Local management policies responsive to monitoring
Integrating coastal management planning with development planning
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Shoreline Management Plans – a guide for development planners
Well-established flood risk assessment process
Respected Environment Agency development control
Estimated CBR of 14:1
Coastal Change Management Areas
106. Local planning authorities should reduce risk from coastal change by avoiding inappropriate development in vulnerable areas or adding to the impacts of physical changes to the coast. They should identify as a Coastal Change Management Area any area likely to be affected by physical changes to the coast, and:
●● be clear as to what development will be appropriate in
such areas and in what circumstances; and
●● make provision for development and infrastructure that needs to be relocated away from
Coastal Change Management Areas.107. When assessing applications, authorities should consider development in a Coastal Change Management Area appropriate where it is demonstrated that:
●● it will be safe over its planned lifetime and will not have an unacceptable impact on coastal change;●● the character of the coast including designations is not compromised;
●● the development provides wider sustainability benefits; and
●● the development does not hinder the creation and maintenance of a continuous signed and managed
route around the coast.108. Local planning authorities should also ensure appropriate development in a Coastal Change Management
Area is not impacted by coastal change by limiting the planned life-time of the proposed development through temporary
permission and restoration conditions where necessary to reduce the risk to people and the development.
Risk avoidance – using the development planning system
Consistent evidence base
Meaningful boundaries?
Opportunity as well as sacrifice
Flexibility on restrictions applied
Community input
Coastal Change Management Areas
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Opportunities at the seafront
Blackpool – 3km of new sea wall with a design life of 100 years
Protects 1500 homes and businesses, plus new ‘urban park’ promenade
Partnership approach: £67.5m from Government, plus Regional Development Funds for public amenity
Coastal adaptation
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UK Climate Change Risk Assessment – defence spending will not keep pace with change
Need to adapt proactively
Defra pathfinders experienced success and challenge – an emerging picture
Challenges for adaptation
Relocation:Homeowners were not always happy with new plots…and didn’t always want to move as a ‘community’Replacement plots sometimes contested by residents
Roll-back:Is land available, is it cost-effective, is it technically feasible?
Buy-and-lease:
Large initial outlay for local authority, slow unpredictable returns
Setting fair payments without ‘compensating’ is difficult
Managed re-alignment:
Working with natural processes vs biodiversity/ecosystem function
Often seen as a threat by communities – engagement intensive
Controversy surrounding ‘food security’, budget use, landscape etc
Challenges for the strategic approach
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Engaging people about long term risk – 20 years as ‘short term’
Empowering people to make decisions on sound but changing evidence
Encouraging investment security whilst retaining flexibility
Keeping strategic plans ‘living’ and active
Communicating uncertainty whilst maintaining authority
Giving people options now to change in the future