Post on 08-Feb-2018
Stock Market Indicators:Fundamental, Sentiment,
& TechnicalYardeni Research, Inc.
April 29, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com
Debbie Johnson480-664-1333
djohnson@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
April 29, 2018 / Stock Market Sentiment & Technical Indicators www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator 1-2Global Growth Barometer 3Economic Surprise Index 4Investors Intelligence Sentiment 5Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0 6Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 7Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0 8AAII Sentiment 9Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence 10S&P 500 Put Call Ratio 11Volatility 12Volume 13Dow Theory 14S&P 500 Moving Averages 15-16S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma 17S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma 18S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Relative to S&P 50019
92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1920
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
4/27
12/31
YRI FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR and S&P 500 INDEX
S&P 500 Index
YRI Fundamental StockMarket Indicator*
* Average of Consumer Comfort Index and Boom-Bust Barometer, which is CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims,four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor, and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 1.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201940
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
160
170
180
190
200
210
220
230
240
250
20
30
40
50
60
70
4/14
4/21
YRI BOOM-BUST BAROMETER & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Boom-Bust Barometer*
Consumer Comfort Index
* CRB raw industrials spot price index divided by initial unemployment claims, four-week moving average.Source: Bloomberg, Commodity Research Bureau, Department of Labor.
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Figure 2.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
250
350
450
550
650
750
850
4/27
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX & INDUSTRIAL COMMODITY PRICES
S&P 500 Index
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Index
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 3.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
4/21
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Initial Unemployment Claims(thousands, sa, four-week moving average,inverted scale)
S&P 500 Index
Source: US Department of Labor and Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 4.
Fundamental Stock Market Indicator
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019650
1050
1450
1850
2250
2650
3050
650
1050
1450
1850
2250
2650
3050
4/27
4/27
YRI GLOBAL GROWTH BAROMETER (on S&P 500 basis) & S&P 500
YRI Global Growth Barometer* (1093.4)
S&P 500 Index (2669.9)
* Average of Brent crude oil and CRB raw industrials spot price index times 2 and divided by 10. Average then multiplied by 10 and 200 added.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation and Commodity Research Bureau.
yardeni.com
Figure 5.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
2800
3000
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
4/26
4/27
US STOCK PRICES vs. BRENT CRUDE OIL PRICE
Brent Crude Oil Price*(dollars per barrel)
S&P 500 Index
Source: Financial Times and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.* Nearby futures price.
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Figure 6.
Global Growth Barometer
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
-600
-400
-200
0
200
400
600
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
S&P 500 minus its200 day-moving average
Economic Surprise Indexyardeni.com
Source: Wall Street Journal and Citigroup.
Figure 7.
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
9
11
13
15
17
19
4/19
4/27
S&P 500 P/E vs. CITIGROUP ECONOMIC SURPRISE INDEX(percent)
Economic Surprise Index
S&P 500 Forward P/E*
yardeni.com
Source: Standard & Poor’s, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S, and Citigroup.* Average weekly price divided by 52-week forward consensus expected operating earnings per share.
Figure 8.
Economic Surprise Index
Page 4 / April 29, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
Figure 9.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 200
1
2
3
4
5
6
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
Ratio Apr 10 2.27 Apr 17 2.20 Apr 24 2.45
4/24
INVESTORS INTELLIGENCE BULLS & BEARS
RatioBull/BearRatio*
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Bulls Bears Apr 10 42.2 18.6 Apr 17 43.6 19.8 Apr 24 48.0 19.6
4/24
PercentageBullsBears
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 205
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
Correction Apr 10 39.2 Apr 17 36.6 Apr 24 32.4
4/24
PercentageCorrection Camp
yardeni.com
Source: Investors Intelligence.
Investors Intelligence Sentiment
Page 5 / April 29, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
Yardeni Research, Inc.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400
S&P 500 INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
4/27
yarden
i.com
* Red shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 10.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIO OF3.0 OR MORE*
(ratio scale)
4/27
yarden
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* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or greater than 3.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 11.
Bull/Bear Ratio Over 3.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400
200
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
30003400
S&P 500 INDEX vs BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
4/27
yarden
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* Green shaded areas indicate Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 12.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 201600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
1600
6600
11600
16600
21600
26600
31600
DOW JONES INDEX vs. BULL/BEAR RATIOOF 1.0 OR LESS*
(ratio scale)
4/27
yarden
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* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Wall Street Journal and Investors Intelligence.
Figure 13.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0
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87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 3.0 OR MORE*
4/27
* Red shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or more than 3.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
i.com
Figure 14.
87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
-20
0
20
40
-40
-20
0
20
40
S&P 500 % FROM 200-DMAvs.
BULL/BEAR RATIO OF 1.0 OR LESS*
4/27
* Green shaded areas indicates Bull/Bear Ratio equal to or less than 1.0.Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yarden
i.com
Figure 15.
Bull/Bear Ratio Under 1.0 & Over 3.0
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Figure 16.
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
25
50
75
100
0
25
50
75
100
4/25
AAII SENTIMENT INDEX FOR STOCKS
AAII Bull Ratio*
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
1
2
3
4
5
0
1
2
3
4
5
4/25
AAII Bull/Bear Ratio
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Latest Readings Bulls Bears Apr 18 37.8 29.2 Apr 25 36.9 25.6
4/25
Bulls
Bears
* AAII Bull Ratio is the percent of bulls over the percent of bulls plus percent of bears.Source: American Association of Individual Investors (AAII).
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AAII Sentiment
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2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920
40
60
80
100
120
140
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
4/24
Apr
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer ConfidenceExpectations Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and the Conference Board.
Figure 17.
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 201920
30
40
50
60
70
.0
.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
4/24
4/14
BULL/BEAR RATIO & CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
Bull/Bear Ratio(4-week average)
Consumer Comfort Index
yardeni.com
Source: New York Board of Trade, Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and Bloomberg.
Figure 18.
Bull/Bear Ratio vs. Consumer Confidence
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96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
2.75
3.00
3.25
3.50
3.75
4/27
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(weekly data)
Average = 1.616(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 19.
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
.75
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.75
2.00
2.25
2.50
4/27
S&P 500 PUT/CALL(4-week ma)
Average = 1.624(1996-2010)
Source: Chicago Board of Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 20.
S&P 500 Put Call Ratio
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2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
4/27
VIX: S&P 500
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 21.
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20190
20
40
60
80
100
0
20
40
60
80
100
4/27
VIX: NASDAQ 100
Source: Chicago Board Options Exchange.
yardeni.com
Figure 22.
Volatility
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Yardeni Research, Inc.
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192
4
6
8
10
12
2
4
6
8
10
12
4/27
NEW YORK STOCK EXCHANGE WEEKLY VOLUME(billion shares, 4-week moving average)
52-week moving average
Source: Wall Street Journal and Haver Analytics.
yarden
i.com
Figure 23.
Volume
Page 13 / April 29, 2018 / Stock Market Indicators: Fundamental, Sentiment, & Technical www.yardeni.com
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 20192000
3500
5000
6500
8000
9500
11000
12500
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
4/27DOW JONES STOCK AVERAGES(ratio scale)
Industrials (DJIA)
Transportation (DJTA)
Source: The Wall Street Journal.
yardeni.com
Figure 24.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019100
250
400
550
700
850
1000
800
1200
1600
2000
2400
2800
3200
3600
4000
4/27S&P 500 STOCK INDEXES(ratio scale)
Industrials Composite*
Transportation Composite
* S&P 500 excluding Financials, Transports, and Utilities.Source: Standard & Poor’s.
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Figure 25.
Dow Theory
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
28003000
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
2200
2400
2600
28003000
4/27
-56.8% (510)
-16.0% (69)
-19.4% (154)
-9.8% (27)
-9.9% (59)
-7.7% (61)
-7.4% (27)
-12.4% (94)
* Dips are declines of less than 10%. Corrections are declines of 10% to 20%. Bear markets are declines of 20% or more. Number of days in parentheses.
S&P 500 INDEX: 2008-2017*(log scale)
S&P 500 (2669.91)
200-day moving average (2611.33)
50-day moving average (2688.13)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 26.
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
-45
-40
-35
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX(as a percent of 200-day moving average)
% from 200-day moving average (2.0)
Source: Standard & Poor’s.
yardeni.com
Figure 27.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
3400
600
1000
1400
1800
2200
2600
3000
3400
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX*
Latest price: 2669.9150-dma: 2686.32200-dma: 2618.05
* Ratio ScaleSource: Standard & Poor’s.
(-) Latest price is -0.6% below the 50-dma.(+) Latest price is 1.9% above the 200-dma.
yardeni.com
Figure 28.
73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
-30
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
4/27
S&P 500 INDEX TECHNICALSTHE DEATH CROSS & THE GOLDEN CROSS(50-dma relative to 200-dma, percent, weekly)
(2.3)
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
yardeni.com
Figure 29.
S&P 500 Moving Averages
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Figure 30.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19600
1200
1800
240030003600
4/27S&P 500*(price indexes)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19125
275
425
575725875
4/27INDUSTRIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
350
600
8501100
4/27CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY*
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
575
975
13751775
4/27INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19175
275
375
475
575675
4/27CONSUMER STAPLES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
200
300
400
500
4/27MATERIALS
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19300
450
600
750
900
4/27
ENERGY
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1940
90
140
190240290
4/27REAL ESTATE
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
225
375
525675825
4/27
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1975
115
155
195
235
4/27
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19225
425
625
82510251225
4/27HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
200-day moving average* S&P 500 sector price indexes on ratio scales.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19100
150
200
250
300350
4/27
UTILITIES
yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index & 200-dma
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Figure 31.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
4/27
S&P 500(price index as percentage of 200-dma)
% from 200-dma (2.0)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
INDUSTRIALS
(-0.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY
(7.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
(4.5)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
4/27
CONSUMER STAPLES
(-7.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
MATERIALS
(-1.2)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
ENERGY
(7.4)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
4/27
REAL ESTATE
(-3.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
4/27
FINANCIALS
Includes Real Estatethrough September 2016
(2.3)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
(-2.6)
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-30
-15
0
15
30
4/27
HEALTH CARE
(1.0)
Source: Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19-40
-20
0
20
40
4/27
UTILITIES
(-1.7) yardeni.com
S&P 500 Sectors Stock Price Index Minus 200-dma
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Figure 32.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
4/27CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY(as a ratio of S&P 500 Index)
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.18
.20
.22
.24
.26
4/27
INDUSTRIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.15
.20
.25
.30
.35
4/27
CONSUMER STAPLES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.20
.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
.50
4/27
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.1
.2
.3
.4
.5
.6
4/27
ENERGY
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.10
.15
.20
.25
4/27
MATERIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.1
.2
.3
.4
4/27
FINANCIALS
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.04
.06
.08
.10
.12
.14
.16
4/27
TELECOMMUNICATION SERVICES
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.25
.30
.35
.40
.45
4/27
HEALTH CARE
Source: Haver Analytics and Standard & Poor’s Corporation.
02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19.08
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