Post on 18-Jul-2018
Market Briefing:S&P 500 Forward Earnings &
the EconomyYardeni Research, Inc.
July 18, 2018
Dr. Edward Yardeni516-972-7683
eyardeni@yardeni.com
Joe Abbott732-497-5306
jabbott@yardeni.com
Mali Quintana480-664-1333
aquintana@yardeni.com
Please visit our sites atwww.yardeni.comblog.yardeni.com
thinking outside the box
Table Of Contents Table Of ContentsTable Of Contents
July 18, 2018 / S&P 500 Forward Earnings & the Economy www.yardeni.com
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S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles 3S&P 500 Forward & Operating Earnings 4Forward Earnings & World Exports 5Forward Earnings & OECD Production 6Forward Earnings & US Leading Indicators 7Forward Earnings & US Coincident Indicators 8Forward Earnings & US Business Sales 9Forward Earnings & Production 10Forward Earnings & Employment 11Forward Earnings, Orders & Shipments 12Forward Earnings & Capital Spending 13-14Forward Earnings & US Exports 15Forward Earnings & ISM 16Forward Earnings, Jobless Claims, & Spot Prices 17Forward Earnings & Trade Weighted Dollar 18
95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data)(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)
Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*
12-month forward**
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February.** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.
*** Actual 4Q sum from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 1930
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Actual 4Q sum***
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Figure 1.
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S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE (Thomson Reuters data)(consensus analysts’ estimates in dollars, monthly, ratio scale)
Analysts’ EstimatesAnnual*
12-month forward**
Actual 4Q sum***
* "Squiggles" span 25 months from February to February.** Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next years.
*** Actual 4Q sum from S&P until Q4-1993 then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 2.
S&P 500 Earnings Squiggles
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86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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7/12
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL (Thomson Reuters data)(dollars per share)
Earnings Per Share
Operating** (4Q sum) (140.12)Forward* (169.79)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.** From S&P until Q4-1993, then from Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 3.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 2210
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7/11
S&P 500 OPERATING EARNINGS PER SHARE: FORWARD & ACTUAL (Thomson Reuters data)(dollars per share)
Earnings Per Share
Operating Earnings(4Q sum) (140.12)
Forward Earnings*(pushed 52-weeks ahead) (169.79)
* Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current year and next year. Monthly through December 2005, then weekly.Source: Standard & Poor’s until Q4-1993, then Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 4.
S&P 500 Forward & Operating Earnings
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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS
World Exports Value(trillion dollars, annualized)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 5.
91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS
World Exports Volume(2000=100)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy (CPB), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 6.
Forward Earnings & World Exports
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79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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7/12
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Industrial Production: OECD(2005=100)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 7.
79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & WORLD EXPORTS(yearly percent change)
Industrial Production: OECD(2005=100)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Haver Analytics, International Monetary Fund (IMF), and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 8.
Forward Earnings & OECD Production
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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May
7/12
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS
Leading EconomicIndicators
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, then weekly.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 9.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS(yearly percent change)
US Leading Economic Indicators
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 10.
Forward Earnings & US Leading Indicators
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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7/12
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS
US CoincidentEconomic Indicators(2004=100)
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 11.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-60
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & COINCIDENT ECONOMIC INDICATORS(yearly percent change)
US Coincident Economic Indicators
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Conference Board.
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Figure 12.
Forward Earnings & US Coincident Indicators
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92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
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7/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES
US Business Sales**(billion dollars, saar)
Forward Earnings*(weekly, dollars per share)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.** Manufacturing and trade sales.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 13.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & BUSINESS SALES(yearly percent change)
US Business Sales**
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.** Manufacturing and trade sales.
Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 14.
Forward Earnings & US Business Sales
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2010
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
Forward Earnings*
US Industrial Production(2007=100)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 15.
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION(yearly percent change)
Forward Earnings*
US Industrial Production
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System.
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Figure 16.
Forward Earnings & Production
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & EMPLOYMENT(yearly percent change)
Forward Earnings*
Nonfarm Payroll Employment
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
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Figure 17.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & AGGREGATE WEEKLY HOURS(yearly percent change)
Aggregate Weekly Hours**
Forward Earnings*
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year.** Production & nonsupervisory employees.
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Figure 18.
Forward Earnings & Employment
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY ORDERS
Total New Factory Orders(trillion dollars, saar)
Forward Earnings*(weekly)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 19.
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3.2
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & FACTORY SHIPMENTS
Total New Factory Shipments(trillion dollars, saar)
Forward Earnings*(weekly)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 20.
Forward Earnings, Orders & Shipments
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88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2020
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7/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING
Real Capital Spending**(billion dollars, saar)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*(weekly)
** Nonresidential fixed investment including equipment, intellectual property products, and structures.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 21.
88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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Jun
S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & REAL CAPITAL SPENDING(yearly percent change)
Real Capital Spending** (7.1)
Forward Earnings* (21.4)
** Nonresidential fixed investment in real GDP.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 22.
Forward Earnings & Capital Spending
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2030
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS
Nondefense Capital Goods OrdersExcluding Aircraft(billion dollars, saar)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings*(weekly)
* 52-week forward consensus expected S&P 500 operating earnings per share. Time-weighted average of current and next year’s consensusearnings estimates.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 23.
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & NONDEFENSE CAPITAL GOODS ORDERS(yearly percent change)
Nondefense Capital Goods OrdersExcluding Aircraft
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.
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Figure 24.
Forward Earnings & Capital Spending
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86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2015
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1757/12S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS
Forward Earnings*(dollars per share)
US Merchandise Exports(billions of dollars, sa)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 25.
86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-50
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & MERCHANDISE EXPORTS(yearly percent change)
Forward Earnings* (21.6)
US Merchandise Exports (13.9)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: US Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 26.
Forward Earnings & US Exports
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX
ISM ManufacturingPurchasing Managers Index
Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change)
Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.
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Figure 27.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & ISM PRICES
ISM Manufacturing Price Index
Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Institute for Supply Management and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 28.
Forward Earnings & ISM
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80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 2050
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & INITIAL UNEMPLOYMENT CLAIMS
Initial Unemployment Claims(4-week moving average, thousands, sa)
Forward Earnings*(yearly percent change, inverted scale)
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: US Department of Labor and Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S.
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Figure 29.
80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-40
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & CRB RAW INDUSTRIALS SPOT PRICE INDEX(yearly percent change)
CRB Raw IndustrialsSpot Price Index
Forward Earnings*
* Time-weighted average of consensus operating earnings estimates for current and next year. Monthly through March 1994, weekly thereafter.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and Commodity Research Bureau.
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Figure 30.
Forward Earnings, Jobless Claims, & Spot Prices
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95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20-75
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S&P 500 FORWARD EARNINGS & US TRADE-WEIGHTED DOLLAR(yearly percent change)
JP Morgan NominalBroad Effective Exchange Rate*(inverted scale) (0.6)
S&P 500 Forward Earnings** (21.6)
* Argentina, Australia, Brazil, Bulgaria, Canada, Chile, China, Colombia, Croatia, Czech Republic, Denmark, Ecuador, Egypt, France, Germany, Hong Kong,Hungary, Japan, India, Indonesia, Israel, Italy, Korea, Kuwait, Malaysia, Mexico, Morocco, New Zealand, Nigeria, Norway, Pakistan, Panama, Peru,Philippines, Poland, Romania, Russia Saudi Arabia, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, Thailand, Turkey, United Kingdom,Ukraine, Uruguay, Venezuela, Vietnam, and United States.
** Time-weighted average of consensus estimates for current and next year.Source: Thomson Reuters I/B/E/S and JP Morgan.
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Figure 31.
Forward Earnings & Trade Weighted Dollar
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