South Dakota PUC

Basin Electric Power CooperativeGroton Unit 2

December 19, 2006

Basin Electric Power CooperativeMEMBER SYSTEMS

Power Supply FacilitiesPower Supply Facilities

2006 Summer Capacity

Coal – 81%Coal – 81%

Purchases – 8%Purchases – 8%

Renewable – 1%Renewable – 1%

Oil – 4%Oil – 4%

Gas – 6%Gas – 6%

2006 Generation Additions

Groton 1 Timeline

Jul 2006: COD

Nov 2003: Justification

May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI

Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub

Aug 2005: Construction

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

2002 LFHistorical

Groton 1 Timeline

Jul 2006: COD

Nov 2003: Justification

May 2004: PUC NOIMay 2004: PUC NOI

Dec 2004: PUC App. Sub

Aug 2005: Construction

2004 Load Forecast2004 Load Forecast

Load ForecastLoad Forecast

2002 LF2004 LFHistorical

Groton 2 ?Groton 2 ?

2007 Load ForecastSchedule

Aug Sep

Dec Jan

May Jun

Dec Jan

Update Form 7

Forecast CBMForecast Coal

Forecast Oil

Judgmental Forms

Collect Electric Rates

Procure Data

Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage

Forecast SC Cons

Forecast SC Usage

Distribution BooksReview Meetings

Prepare G&T Books

Prepare BEPC Book

Present to BEPC Board

May Jun

Dec Jan

May Jun

200720062005

EconometricEconometric

External Data Sources

n 250 Equations and Modelsn 550 Explanatory Variables or Driversn Membership Inputn Member’s Review and Approvaln Basin Approvaln RUS Approval

Load Forecasting System

2007 Load ForecastScheduleSchedule

Aug Sep

Dec Jan

May Jun

Dec Jan

Update Form 7

Forecast CBMForecast Coal

Forecast Oil

Judgmental Forms

Collect Electric Rates

Procure Data

Forecast Res ConsForecast Res Usage

Forecast SC Cons

Forecast SC Usage

Distribution BooksReview Meetings

Prepare G&T Books

Prepare BEPC Book

Present to BEPC Board

May Jun

Dec Jan

May Jun

200720062005

TodayToday

Member Discussions

2007 Load Forecast Results

Ethanol

Oil Coal

Residential

Natural Gas

Historical Natural Gas Prices

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16

$/MMBtu

12/24/200412/24/2004

3/10/20043/10/2004

HistoricalHistorical

Historical Natural Gas Prices

$0$2$4$6$8

$10$12$14$16

$/MMBtu

9/19/20059/19/2005

12/24/200412/24/2004

3/10/20043/10/2004

HistoricalHistorical

12/15/200612/15/2006

Historical Oil Prices

$0$10$20$30$40$50$60$70$80

$/Barrel

Major Growth Areas

Major Growth Major Growth AreasAreas

East River

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary

MWEast River

Total Summer PeakEast River

Total Summer Peak

•Keystone Pipeline – 40 MW

•Ethanol – 68 MW

•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW

•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW

•Grain/Poultry/Sugar – 20 MW

•Sioux Falls Area – 216 MW

Rushmore

MWRushmore

Total Summer PeakRushmore

Total Summer Peak

Total Summer PeakL&O

Total Summer Peak

•Ethanol – 3 MW

•Federated – 35 MW

•Ethanol – 3 MW

•Federated – 35 MW

MWNIPCO

Total Summer PeakNIPCO

Total Summer Peak

•Methane Digester – 10 MW

•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW

•Methane Digester – 10 MW

•Bio-diesel/CO2/Mfg – 4 MW

Upper Missouri

MWUpper Missouri

Total Summer PeakUpper Missouri

Total Summer Peak•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW

•Bakken – 35 MW

•Cedar Hills – 135 MW

•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW

•Enbridge Pipeline – 6 MW

•Oil Field Activity – 170 MW•Bakken – 35 MW

•Cedar Hills – 135 MW

•Ethanol Plant – 12 MW

Central Power

MWCentral Power

Total Summer PeakCentral Power

Total Summer Peak•Keystone Pipeline – 10 MW

•Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 16 MW

PRECorp

MWPRECorp

Total Summer PeakPRECorp

Total Summer Peak

•CBM

•Coal

•CBM

•Coal

Total ForecastTotal Forecast

5,00019

800800

1,6501,650

5,00019

2004 LF2007 LF - Preliminary2007 LF - Potential

700700

Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW

• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW

• Data Center – 130 MW

• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW

• Coal Drying – 70 MW

• Manufacturing – 50 MW

• Metals Mining – 30 MW

• Water – 20 MW

• Railroad Hub – 20 MW

Potential Loads• Ethanol / Bio-diesel – 150 MW

• Large Gas Compression – 150 MW

• Data Center – 130 MW

• Oil Field Activity – 80 MW

• Coal Drying – 70 MW

• Manufacturing – 50 MW

• Metals Mining – 30 MW

• Water – 20 MW

• Railroad Hub – 20 MW

800800

1,6501,650

Total ForecastTotal Forecast

Groton 1 Operation

Transmission Operations

Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Load Serving

Resource Development

New Resources• Committed New Resources

– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)

• Committed New Resources– Groton 2 (95 MW)– Dry Fork Station (352 MW)– Waste Heat (28 MW)– LRS Turbine Upgrades (16 MW)

• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)

• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW

• Planned New Resources– NextGen – 700 MW (Dec 2013)– MRY III – 100 MW (Jun 2016)– Wind (10% Goal)

• 2009 – 100 MW• 2014 – 50 MW

BEPC Summer SurplusNew Resources

-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

PlannedPlannedCommittedCommitted

Color GGS 2

Groton 2Groton 2

BEPC Summer SurplusBEPC Summer Surplus

-1,600-1,400-1,200-1,000

-800-600-400-200

Groton 2 Timeline

Sept. 2006: NOI

March 2007: App. Sub.March 2007: App. Sub.

Sept. 2007: ConstructionSept. 2007: Construction

Sept. 2008: COD

June 2008: COD

Jan. 2007: App. Sub.Jan. 2007: App. Sub.

June 2007: ConstructionJune 2007: Construction

Major Concerns

• Low Hydro

• Loss of generator

• Transmission constraints

• Ability to move power into the region

• Low Hydro

• Loss of generator

• Transmission constraints

• Ability to move power into the region

Request

Basin Electric requests the SD PUC to waive the remainder of the 6-month

waiting period to enable Basin Electric to submit their application in January

2007 instead of March 2007.

South Dakota PUC

Documents

Transcript of South Dakota PUC

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