Post on 20-Dec-2015
Predicting the FuturePredicting the Future Climate Systems
Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes
Climate Systems Atmosphere – changes over hours Oceans – surface changes over weeks – depths change over millennia Biosphere – changes annually to centuries Cryosphere – ice, glaciers permafrost, snow – various change scales Geosphere – volcanos, continental drif – long time scales, large changes
Modeling the ClimateModeling the Climate Systems & Feedbacks Among
Radiation insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air
Water cycle evaporation, precipitation, runoff
Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice
Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry
(salinity) Sea Ice
strongly affected by feedbacks
Systems & Feedbacks Among Radiation
insolation (incoming sunlight varies) reflection, absorption, re-radiation by surface, air
Water cycle evaporation, precipitation, runoff
Land surface soil moisture, vegitation, topography, snow & ice
Ocean surface currents, deep currents, chemistry
(salinity) Sea Ice
strongly affected by feedbacks
FeedbacksFeedbacks Positive
Any change leads to further change eg. Ball on a hill
Negative System always returns to equilibrium
eg. Ball in a bowl
Neutral System stays in new state
eg. Ball on a plain
Positive Any change leads to further change
eg. Ball on a hill
Negative System always returns to equilibrium
eg. Ball in a bowl
Neutral System stays in new state
eg. Ball on a plain
FeedbacksFeedbacks Greenhouse Effect: Warming
Good … makes Earth inhabitable!! Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats
Feedbaack Mechanisms Evaporation Plant growth Ice-Albedo effect
Greenhouse Effect: Warming Good … makes Earth inhabitable!!
Ground absorbs sunlight Ground heats (parking lots in summer) Ground radiates heat (Infrared, IR) Atmosphere absorbs (some) IR Atmosphere heats
Feedbaack Mechanisms Evaporation Plant growth Ice-Albedo effect
FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation
H2O vapor absorbs more IR warming increases?
Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? warming decreases?
Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth More CO2 increases plant growth
More plant growth is good!! Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles
CO2 is Reduced
Feedback Mechanism: Evaporation H2O vapor absorbs more IR
warming increases?
Clouds shade surface, cool it, warming stops? warming decreases?
Feedback Mechanism: Plant Growth More CO2 increases plant growth
More plant growth is good!! Plants absorb CO2 (Keeling curve annual cycles
CO2 is Reduced
FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect
Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts
warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases
Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts
warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases
FeedbacksFeedbacks Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect
Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts
warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases
Feedback Mechanism: Ice Albedo Effect Warming melts glaciers, sea ice Ground warms more than snow/ice Ground warms, radiates more IR Atmosphere warms More ice melts
warming increases Cooling increasing glaciers More sunlight reflected Ground Cools cooling increases
IPCCIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Established in 1988
World Meteorological Org. (WMO) UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
Mandate
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Established in 1988
World Meteorological Org. (WMO) UN Environment Programme (UNEP)
Mandate“The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of
human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation.”
“The role of the IPCC is to assess on a comprehensive, objective, open and
transparent basis the scientific, technical and socio-economic information relevant to understanding the scientific basis of risk of
human-induced climate change, its potential impacts and options for adaptation and
mitigation.”http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm
IPCCIPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change“The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other
relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed
and published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation,
participation and general procedures are laid down in the ‘Principles Governing IPCC
Work’“
“The IPCC does not carry out research nor does it monitor climate related data or other
relevant parameters. It bases its assessment mainly on peer reviewed
and published scientific/technical literature. Its role, organisation,
participation and general procedures are laid down in the ‘Principles Governing IPCC
Work’“
http://www.ipcc.ch/about/about.htm
IPCCIPCC Working Groups
I: Science knowns, unknowns & projections
II: Impact and Adaption vulnerability: natural and human consequences: + and –
III: Mitigation options for changing human behavior and impact
Task Force on NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories
Working Groups I: Science
knowns, unknowns & projections
II: Impact and Adaption vulnerability: natural and human consequences: + and –
III: Mitigation options for changing human behavior and impact
Task Force on NationalGreenhouse Gas Inventories
IPCCIPCC Intergovenmental Panel on Climate
Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years
2007 report available in print & electronic
3rd Assessment report gave “Hockey Stick”
Intergovenmental Panel on Climate Change View of the bulk of the scientific community Computer models estimate feedbacks Reports every 5 years
2007 report available in print & electronic
3rd Assessment report gave “Hockey Stick”
IPCCIPCC 4th Assessment
Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!
available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1
available in printCambridge U. Press
4th Assessment Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!
available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1
available in printCambridge U. Press
IPCCIPCC 4th Assessment
Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!
available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1
available in printCambridge U. Press
4th Assessment Released 2007 WGI = 701 pages!
available on lineipcc-wg1.ucar.edu/wg1
available in printCambridge U. Press
Assessment Report Four (ARF)Assessment Report Four (ARF) Findings of Working Group I
Summary for Policymakers (18 pages) Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change A Paleoclimatic Perspective Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Findings of Working Group I Summary for Policymakers (18 pages)
Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Change Direct Observations of Recent Climate Change A Paleoclimatic Perspective Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Assessment Report Four (ARF)Assessment Report Four (ARF) Findings of Working Group I
Technical Summary (66 pages) Chamges in Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Observations of Changes in Climate Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate Robust Findings and Key Uncertainties
Findings of Working Group I Technical Summary (66 pages)
Chamges in Human & Natural Drivers of Climate Observations of Changes in Climate Understanding and Attributing Climate Change Projections of Future Changes in Climate Robust Findings and Key Uncertainties
Union of Concerned ScientitstsUnion of Concerned Scientitsts Confronting Climate Change in the U.S.
Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions
Confronting Climate Change in the U.S. Northeast: Science, Impacts and Solutions
http://www.ucsusa.org/global_warming/
IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Radiative Forcing
“The change in net (down minus up) irradiance (solar plus longwave; in W/m2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values”
Radiative Forcing “The change in net (down minus up)
irradiance (solar plus longwave; in W/m2) at the tropopause after allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed values”
RF = net flux imbalance at tropopauseRF = net flux imbalance at tropopause
Atmospheric Structure
Atmospheric Structure
Layers (from surface)
Troposphere – sphere of weather
Stratosphere – sphere of ozone (O3)
Mesosphere Ionosphere – sphere of ions
Layers (from surface)
Troposphere – sphere of weather
Stratosphere – sphere of ozone (O3)
Mesosphere Ionosphere – sphere of ions
RF = net flux imbalance at tropopause
RF = net flux imbalance at tropopause
IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Components of Climate Change Components of Climate Change
Accounts for natural processesAccounts for natural processes
eg. Changes in evaporation
eg. Changes in evaporation
eg. Melting permafrost releasing methane
eg. Melting permafrost releasing methane
IPCC ARF WGIIPCC ARF WGI Radiative Forcing 1750 - 2005 Radiative Forcing 1750 - 2005
Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide
“Ozone Layer” absorbs UV, reduces
RF at tropopause
“Ozone Layer” absorbs UV, reduces
RF at tropopauseMethaneMethane
Buildings increase surface albedo
relative to forests
Buildings increase surface albedo
relative to forests
Aerosols (particles) reflect sunlight AND increase cloud cover
(eg. Contrails)
Aerosols (particles) reflect sunlight AND increase cloud cover
(eg. Contrails)
Solar radiation has increased since
1750 (Little Ice Age end)
Solar radiation has increased since
1750 (Little Ice Age end)
IPCC Climate DriversIPCC Climate Drivers Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx
Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit
y
Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit
y
Com-bined rate of chang
e
Com-bined rate of chang
e
IPCC Climate DriversIPCC Climate Drivers Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx Greenhouse Gases: CO2, CH4, H2O, NOx
Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit
y
Grey Bars = Natural Variabilit
y
Com-bined rate of chang
e
Com-bined rate of chang
e
IPCC Changes Since 1850IPCC Changes Since 1850 Global Average
Temperature Global Average
Sea Level mostly thermal
expansion Northern
Hemisphere Snow Cover
Global Average Temperature
Global Average Sea Level mostly thermal
expansion Northern
Hemisphere Snow Cover
UCC Northeast USUCC Northeast US Snow cover decreasing Snow cover decreasing
Com-bined rate of chang
e
Com-bined rate of chang
e
IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Continued Warming Continued Warming
What we’re committed to by past
behavior!
What we’re committed to by past
behavior!
IPCC ARFIPCC ARF Effects of Changing Mean Effects of Changing Mean
Does not mean it
never gets cold!
Does not mean it
never gets cold!
The SkepticsThe Skeptics Important voices!
Skeptics keep science honest Agreements
CO2 in atmosphere is increasing
CO2 levels correlate with temperature
Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation
Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles
Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!
Important voices! Skeptics keep science honest
Agreements CO2 in atmosphere is increasing
CO2 levels correlate with temperature
Arguments Climate is driven exclusively by insolation
Milankovitch Cycles Sunspot Cycles
Too expensive to reduce CO2: Adapt Global warming is good!
The SkepticsThe Skeptics Journal of American Physicians & Surgeons 2007
Mailed to all SLU Physics Professors Tuesday!!
Journal of American Physicians & Surgeons 2007 Mailed to all SLU Physics Professors Tuesday!!
The SkepticsThe Skeptics Claims all warming due to solar
activity Claims all warming due to solar
activity
Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,
leaves out first century.
Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,
leaves out first century.
The SkepticsThe Skeptics Claims all warming due to solar
activity Claims all warming due to solar
activity
Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,
leaves out first century.
Scale minimizes hydrocarbon use,
leaves out first century.