The Heat is ON: Impacts of climate change in Australia’s biodiversity

Linda Beaumont Macquarie University

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Climate changes so far…

(IPCC, 2007)

• Temperature increase 0.74 C⁰

• Precipitation trends: highly variable spatially & temporally

In Australia from 1910 to 2004:Average min temp rose 0.6°C Average max temp rose 1.2°C

1950-2005: Southern & eastern Australia have become drier

What lies ahead: 2030

CSIRO 2007

Precipitation best estimate: little change in far north, decreases of 2-10% elsewhere

Temperature best estimate: 0.7°C annual warming

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Why do ecosystems matter?

Ecosystem Services & Functions

Supporting Services: primary production, provision of habitat, nutrient cycling, production of oxygen, water cyclingRegulating Services: pollination, seed dispersal, climate regulation, natural hazard protection, erosion controlMarketable Products: wood, fuel, fish, pharmaceuticals, tourism & recreationCultural Services: Spiritual & religious values, education, asthetic values

Human well-beingGlobal ChangesClimateBiochemical cyclesLand useSpecies Introduction

The Money Tree

What are ecosystem services & functions worth?

(Costanza et al., 1997)

$18-54,000,000,000,000 per year

Global GNP:$18,000,000,000,000 per year

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Temperature influences the development of species

Impacts of temperature on organisms

• Metabolic processes controlled by enzymes

• Functioning of enzymes influenced by temperature

• Below 0⁰C ice crystals may form in cells, above 45⁰C proteins may denature

As temperature increases …

Flowering occurs earlier Development rate increases

Photosynthesis, transpiration, respiration increase

Johns et al. 2003

Pei-Ling et al., 2006

BUT…

Hi Temp

Low Temp

Temperature

Each species has an optimal range

Temperature

Sur

viva

l Optimal

Just surviving

Dead

Just surviving

Dead

Short, medium & long term responses of plants to climate

Climate plays a pivotal role in the distribution of species

• Major types of vegetation occur at similar latitudes & altitudes on different continents.

Paleoecology• Expansion & contraction of glaciers in NH

resulted in southward & northward migration of vegetation

Current 11,000ya 13,000ya 15,000ya

Why will climate change impact species?

• ↑ mean temperature will lead to ↑ extremes

Carbon Dioxide

• Photosynthesis = energy from the sun is used to combine CO2 + water to produce sugars and oxygen

• Stomata: CO2 entry, water loss

http://www.schoolhousevideo.org/Media/leafwithlabels.jpg

• Rate depends on light, water, CO2, temp

• Increase CO2

Increase growth

Direct impacts of CO2

• Species respond differently

• Growth potential may not be realised if water or nutrients limit growth

• Interactions between CO2, temperature & precipitation

• Are benefits short-term?http://www.co2science.org/scripts/

Indirect impacts of CO2

• Greater accumulation of carbohydrates may change C:N ratio.

• Herbivores need nitrogen• Eat more? Or grow slower?

Species & communities will be affected

1. Directly:

- Temperature- Rainfall- CO2

- Extreme events

2. Indirectly:

- Interactions with other species

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Hypotheses:• Some species will tolerate

climate change

• Timing of spring events will be more likely to advance than be delayed

• Species ranges will be more likely to shift poleward or upwards in elevation than move towards the equator

Pei-Ling et al., 2006Temperature

What responses have occurred so far?

(IPCC 2007)

Types of responses to climate change:

• Phenotypic: adjust behaviour, morphology, physiology • Spring events advanced by 2.3 days/decade (Parmesan & Yohe, 2003)

Root et al., 2003

Breeding grounds:Arrival -3.1 days/decadeDepart +8.1 days/decade

Winter grounds:Arrival -5.3 days/decadeDepart -7.8 days/decade

Changes in migration of Australian birds: 1960-2005

Beaumont et al 2006

Types of responses to climate change:• Range shifts• Parmesan & Yohe (2003) meta-analysis found 6.1km per

decade shift polewards• Thomas et al., (2006): up to ~90km since 1970 & ~ 212m in

elevation• Range shifts occurred among plants, birds, insects, reptiles

Rainforest expansion

Snow-gumexpansion

Saltwater intrusion into freshwater swamps

Coral bleaching

Alpine: feral animalsIslands: plant

colonisation, bird & seal population increases

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Future impactsKakadu: Salt water intrusion, displacement of freshwater wetlands

QLD Wet Tropics: Extinctions of many endemics, deterioration of reefs

Murray-Darling Basin: Reduced water supply, threats to freshwater wetlands, reduced habitat for migratory birds

SW WA: Range reductions, fragmentation for endemic plants & crops

Alpine zone: loss of plant & animal species, increase in shrubs

Migratory birds:More overwintering, residency

Winners

• Short generation times• Good dispersal• Broad climatic tolerances• Generalists• Opportunists

Losers

• Long generation times• Poorly dispersed• Narrow climatic tolerances• Specialists• Isolated populations• Genetically impoverished

99%of the Australian continent < 1000m

Limited scope for altitudinal migration as climate zones shift

How far would a species have to move to stay in the same climate it is in today?

300m

400m

500m

600m

700m

200m

800m

For every 1°C increase in average yearly temperature it would have to shift:

~ 100m uphill or~ 125km south

Soils• eg. 10-400 ppm P is common (cf >500 ppm for N. Hemi• High proportion of sandy and saline soils• Very infertile by N.Hemi standards

http://www.gu.edu.au/ins/collections/webb/html/11-90.html

capacity for Australian vegetation to respond to elevated CO2 may be limited

Implications: elevated CO2 can have “fertilisation effects”

BUT: only if other factors are not limiting 700 ppm 350 ppm

• Vegetation in all but wettest areas very fire-prone• 5% of land surface burnt each year (up to 50% in north)

Fire

Future fire regimes affected by:• Temperature• Rainfall• Fuel loads (CO2)

(Hennessy et al. 2005)

Increased frequency & intensitye.g. extreme fire days 10-40% by 2020

Human Occupation

Migration with climate zones difficult for many species

• Long history of human habituation (>60,000)

• High degree of habitat fragmentation since European settlement

Migration potential

• How fast do species need to migrate?

• Are there any barriers to dispersal?

• Current and future habitats may decrease in size due to climate and land-use changes

http://www.science.smith.edu/stopoverbirds/Chapter1_intro.html

Direct impacts to humans: Agriculture

• ↓SW, ↑NE• Southern Australia:

non-viable in dry margins, expand into wet margins

• Potential for adaptation

Horticulture:

• Temperate fruits & nuts negatively affected

• Crops relying on irrigation at a disadvantage

• Qld fruit fly expected to pose risk to southern Australia

• Reduction in wine quality• But alternate varieties can be

grown

Farming

• CO2 may increase pasture growth

• Will depend on moisture• Spread of exotic weeds• Reduction of rabbits via

biological controls• ↑in thermal stress of

animals

Coasts

• 80% of Australians live in the coastal zone

• Sea level rises• Storm surges• Loss of wetlands

Society

• Tourism/recreation• Increased hazards• Energy use• Health

Outline

• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Research Methods

Monitor

ExperimentModel

Monitoring

• Trends over time:– Long-term observations– Re-sampling sites used

previously• Relate to climate variables• Extrapolate future impacts Root et al., 2003

Modelling

• Relationship between climate and distribution

Current Future

Beaumont et al 2007

Experimentation

• Elevated CO2, temperature, precipitation

http://www.gartenbau.uni-hannover.de/gem/Einrichtungen/Bilder/Gew-Haus.jpg

www.haibei.org/haibei/researche.htm per.ornl.gov/Zak.html

Outline• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Challenges for conservationists, policy-makers & managers

• Overcoming “too hard basket” syndrome

• Accept that climate change will have measurable, & negative impacts over the next few decades

• Accepting that traditional conservation strategies will not be adequate in the future

Peters RL & Darling JDS (1985)

Climate change & nature reserves

• Many species now in reserves will need to move elsewhere

• Promote connectivity to assist natural adaptation of mobile or widely distributed species especially in fragmented landscapes

• Consider manipulation/triage priorities

• Develop simple monitoring strategies for identifying change to inform adaptive planning

Outline

• What is happening with climate?• Why do we care?• Why will changes in climate have impacts on

species?• What responses have occurred so far?• What responses could occur?• What research methods do we use to

determine future responses?• What conservation initiatives can we

undertake?• Science in Schools

Science in Schools

• Phenology: the study of the timing of life cycle events in plants and animals

• Used to:– Track the effect of climate change on organisms– Make predictions about the future health of the

environment• Phenology networks established overseas

School Phenology Network• Aims: 1) Encourage schools to actively take part in nature

observations2) Provide data for scientific investigations

• How: By recording the onset of phenological stages in annual natural cycles

• Benefits to students:1) Understanding the relationship between climate and natural cycles2) Knowledge of climate change and its impacts3) Methods of data collection and collation4) Analyses of trends over time5) Direct participation in a large-scale scientific study

What can we record?

• First bloom• Open flower• Full bloom• Fruit/seed dispersal• Arrival /departure of

migratory birds• Appearance of butterflies• End of butterfly season• Frogs spawning

What happens with the data?

• Recorded on a website• Accessible to all schools• Latitudinal and

altitudinal gradient

Internet advantages…

• How may species distributions shift?• What happens to species distributions when

habitat is fragmented?• What may happen to coastal wetlands as sea-

levels rise?• How does temperature changes development

time of insects?

Questions?